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FED: Richmond Fed Pres Lacker told reporters Q1 GDP weakness is mostly transitory
  • growth to resume a good moderate pace ahead;
  • but it's reasonable to rev down the yr's growth forecast after Q1.

He's unsure what to make of recently higher unemployment claims. Infl rise to over 4% is transitory.

GM to spend $2b on plants and hire 4000.
American focus:

The yen and the Swiss franc slid versus most major counterparts, with Japan’s currency dropping against the euro for the first time in six days, as stocks and commodities advanced, damping demand for safer assets.
The euro fluctuated versus the dollar after a spokesman for German Chancellor Angela Merkel said a restructuring of Greece’s debt isn’t being considered, while a European Union official said the nation’s fiscal progress is being studied.
French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said in Zurich today the EU will keep up its efforts to aid Greece after bailing out the country a year ago.
The German newspaper Handelsblatt reported Euro-area countries are readying a further “two-digit” billion-euro loan for Greece, the newspaper reported, citing unidentified “euro- zone sources” in Brussels. The exact figure is still to be decided, the newspaper said, adding that a figure of some 60 billion euros is being discussed in Brussels.
The Athens newspaper Kathimerini said, without citing its sources, that the IMF also is arranging new aid for Greece, an 80 billion-euro ($115 billion) to 100 billion-euro plan
Speculation about new financial assistance from Europe and the IMF came after S&P yesterday downgraded Greece’s credit rating for the fourth time since April 2010, rekindling concern that the region’s debt crisis is escalating.  The Swiss franc dropped after data showed inflation slowed in April.
“You have firmer equity and commodity prices, putting the safe-haven currencies, yen and Swiss, in offer,” said Mark McCormick, a New York-based currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. “It’s hard to get a sense of where European politicians headed and what the outcome will be for Greece as a whole.”

Dow +64.71 at 12749.39, Nasdaq +18.64 at 2861.54, S&P +8.32 at 1354.32

Financials lagged yesterday, but the sector has rallied to a 0.9% gain this session. It strength is underpinned by diversified financial services plays like Bank of America (BAC 12.35, +0.16) and investment banks like Morgan Stanley (MS 25.50, +0.42). Insurance giant AIG (AIG 29.44, -0.26) has failed to find much support, though.
Energy stocks have recovered from their morning decline. The sector is now up 0.5%, thanks largely to leadership from refiners like Tesoro (TSO 26.24, +0.45) and Sunoco (SUN 42.45, +0.60).

US: EIA short-term energy outlook calls for WTI to average $103 in 2011 and $107 in '12. Sees world demand +1.4m bpd in '11.
Oil is back in the black

June WTI is up $0.60 at $103.15, at the top of the day's $100.12/103.48 range.

Dow +7.71 at 12741.18, Nasdaq +17.80 at 2861.77, S&P +7.86 at 1354.15

Despite modest strength in the dollar index, most commodities are trading higher this morning. Silver is extending gains from yesterday and is currently one of the best performing commodities after sugar futures, which are 4.1% higher.
Silver traded between ~$37-38 for most of the overnight session before breaking out again and pushing past $38.50. In current trade, silver is up 3.5% at $38.42/ounce.
Gold extended yesterday's gains as well in the overnight session. it hit session highs of $1518.90 just a few minutes before floor trading began, but after touching that level, it went on to steadily decline $12/oz. over the next hour. it has since recovered and is back near session highs, now at $1515.20, up 0.8%.
Crude oil has been in the red for the entire session so for today. Since the close of floor trade yesterday, crude has remained above the $100 level, but it did get close by falling to $100.15. The energy component has recovered off those session lows and is now down 0.2% at $102.36/barrel. Natural gas 0.8% higher at $4.25/MMBtu.

GBP/USD holds higher

GBP/USD gained to $1.6360 but extends its rise slowly. Offers ahead of $1.6400. Stops above. Daily highs were earlier printed on $1.6420.

EUR/USD holds within the range

EUR/USD holds around $1.4345 amid oil prices rebounding off morning US lows. Bids mentioned ahead of $1.4300 and the euro remains sensitive to eurozone headlines about Greece.

US: March wholesale inv +1.1%

June WTI slipped back lower again through $101.00 to $100.77 following some falls in equities and precious metals, but quickly bounces to $101.30.

Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut,

EUR/USD $1.4160, $1.4250, $1.4375, $1.4400
USD/JPY Y79.80, Y80.20, Y80.95, Y81.00, Y81.35
EUR/JPY Y119.00, Y119.25
GBP/USD $1.6520, $1.6475, $1.6185

Before the bell: Stocks headed for higher open

Stocks were headed for positive open Tuesday after China reported a large trade surplus and investors awaited reports on wholesale inventories.
Early Tuesday, China announced that China's monthly trade surplus grew for the second month in a row. The world's second largest economy reported a massive $11.43 billion surplus in April, up from its $1.68 billion in the same month last year.
Top officials from the United States and China are currently meeting in Washington D.C., and trade issues are top of mind.

Economy: The Labor Department released April import/export prices that stood at +2.2% and +1.1% respectively.
The Commerce Department will report on wholesale inventories at 14:00 GMT.
Companies: Software giant Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500) said it agreed to buy Internet video call company Skype for $8.5 billion, including the assumption of debt. Shares of Microsoft ticked down very slightly in premarket trade.
In other tech news, The Wall Street Journal reported that search giant Google (GOOG, Fortune 500) is supposedly entering the music cloud business.
Dow component Disney (DIS, Fortune 500) will report after the closing bell Tuesday. Analysts polled expect the media giant to post a profit of 56 cents a share.

GREECE, Press: EMU preparing additional bailout fund for Greece.
  • talk of Brussels of E60 bln new funding for Greece;
  • Eurogroup to discuss new bailout package Monday;
  • Greece payback period may be extended to 10 years.
US: Apr export prices +1.1%
US: Apr import prices +2.2%

Oil rises again and breaking through the earlier highs as equities and metals hold firm to $102.19. June WTI now targeting resistance at $103.12 with a break there leading onto $104.85. Crude trades $102.03/06.

EU session review: Yen declines as stocks advance amid Greece bailout

Data released:
07:15  Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Apr)     0.1%    0.5%    0.6%

The yen slid against most of its peers as stocks rose and Greece’s newspaper Kathimerini said the International Monetary Fund is arranging fresh aid for Greece, sapping demand for the currency as a haven.
The euro fluctuated against the dollar after the newspaper reported the IMF is arranging an 80 billion-euro ($114 billion) to 100 billion-euro plan, without saying how it got the information.
European Central Bank Executive Board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said a Greek debt restructuring would leave the nation’s banks “on their knees.”
German Chancellor Angela Merkel today refused to commit to more aid, saying that it is still too early to decide whether the Greek government will need further financial help to overcome the debt crisis.
The British pound weakened on speculation the Bank of England may lower its economic growth forecasts.
The Swiss franc declined after a report showed consumer-price gains slowed in April.

EUR/USD slowly recovered from $1.4270 to $1.4370 before it set stable within the $1.4320/70 range.

GBP/USD fell to $1.6330 lows, but managed to recover to $1.6368.

USD/JPY rose to Y80.90,  but failed to break above the figure and retreated to Y80.50.

At 1230GMT US  Import/Export Price Index is expected to a 1.8% m/m gain for the Import Price Index.
At 1400GMT US Wholesale Inventories data is due.

EUR/USD recovers and currently challenges offers $1.4345/50. Currently rate holds near $1.4350, above hourly lows on $1.4320.
ECB MERSCH: ECB delivers price stability
  • Don't have crisis of the euro but of public finances
  • Hope EU Parliament will strengthen current reform proposal
  • Must move away from debt culture.
ECB MERSCH: ECB delivers price stability
  • Don't have crisis of the euro but of public finances
  • Hope EU Parliament will strengthen current reform proposal
  • Must move away from debt culture.
ECB BINI SMAGHI: Greece is a rich country, must just sell assets
ECB BINI SMAGHI: If you have debt, you repay your debt
GERMANY MERKEL: Must wait for EU/ECB/IMF report on Greece
  • then to decide if and what to do on Greece;
  • believe Greece will be stronger after reforms;
  • convinced to get parliamentary majority for ESM.



GERMANY MERKEL: Must wait for EU/ECB/IMF report on Greece
  • then to decide if and what to do on Greece;
  • believe Greece will be stronger after reforms;
  • convinced to get parliamentary majority for ESM.



EU focus: Euro volatile on Greek aid reports; dollar steady

The euro pared losses in volatile trade on Tuesday on a media report, later denied, that heavily indebted Greece could agree a new rescue deal next month to help it meet its funding requirements in the next two years.
The euro rose after Dow Jones quoted a senior Greek official as saying that a new deal could be struck as early as June.
It later fell back after Greece denied it was discussing a new package and a German MP questioned whether Greece had met the terms for its next aid tranche.
"This seems a bit early to come up with something concrete. I think we'll get more posturing before a deal can be agreed on Greece," said Gavin Friend, currency strategist at nabCapital.
Greece must follow the steps laid down in its budget adjustment programme before any additional loans can be considered, European Central Bank Executive Board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said on Tuesday.
Asked about the possibility of a new loan being extended to Greece, Bini Smaghi said the Athens government had to press on with what had already been agreed.
On Monday, Standard and Poor's cut Greece's rating to B from BB-, dragging it further into junk territory.
"We need a fresh trigger to go lower in the euro from here. I think we're in a $1.43/1.46 range for now," said Geoffrey Yu, currency strategist at UBS.
Recent weakness in the euro, initially triggered by disappointment over a lack of hints on a rate hike next month from the European Central bank last week, accelerated as panic selling in the commodities market prompted investors to shun risk.


Silver is rising higher again with a move up to $38.49. Resistance above now seen towards Friday's early high of $39.57. Metal trades at the day's high.

GREECE, the head of Greece's debt agency, Petros Christodoulou: "The 6-month T-bill auction beat our forecasts".
GREECE T-BILL AUCTION RESULTS: 26-week T-bill; avg yield 4.88% (4.80%), cover 3.58 (3.81)
FTSE +1.06% 6,006; CAC +1.27% 4,058; DAX +1.24% 7,502
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.4160, $1.4250, $1.4375, $1.4400
USD/JPY Y79.80, Y80.20, Y80.95, Y81.00, Y81.35
EUR/JPY Y119.00, Y119.25
GBP/USD $1.6520, $1.6475, $1.6185

Asian session: The euro fell



01:30 Australia Trade Balance (Mar) 1.740B
02:00 China Trade Balance (Apr) 11.423B

The euro fell to a six-week low against the yen before Greece sells Treasury bills today amid speculation the nation will need to restructure its debt.
The 17-nation currency dropped against 12 of its 16 major counterparts after Standard & Poor’s fourth downgrade of Greece since April 2010 rekindled concern the region’s debt crisis is escalating. 
Australia’s dollar slid before Treasurer Wayne Swan releases his budget today after promises to cut spending. 
New Zealand’s dollar dropped after the International Monetary Fund said the currency may be as much as 20 percent overvalued.
Australia’s dollar snapped a two-day advance following comments by Swan yesterday that the government will make “substantial” spending cuts to counter revenue declines caused by the currency’s strength, the nation’s costliest natural disasters and Japan’s record earthquake in March.
New Zealand’s currency may be as much as 20 percent overvalued relative to estimates of the equilibrium exchange rate, the IMF said. Part of the overvaluation reflects the large positive interest-rate differential, which may dissipate with eventual tightening by major central banks, the Washington-based group said as part of an annual review of the country’s economy.

EUR/USD: the pair shown low  in the field of $1,4270, then become stronger above a mark $1,4300.

GBP/USD: the pair decreased in around $1,6350.

USD/JPY: the pair grown in around Y80.70.

At 1230GMT US  Import/Export Price Index is expected to a 1.8% m/m gain for the Import Price Index.
At 1400GMT US Wholesale Inventories data is due.


Forex: Monday's review

The euro fell for a third day versus the dollar in the longest losing streak since February as Standard & Poor’s reduction in Greece’s credit rating renewed concern the region’s debt crisis is worsening. 
Greece’s credit rating was cut to B from BB- by S&P, which said further reductions are possible, with private investors at risk if maturities are extended on the nation’s emergency-aid package. Another rating cut would make Greece the lowest-rated country in Europe as today’s move left it even with Belarus after the fourth reduction by S&P since April 2010. 
The 17-nation currency rose earlier as a report showed exports in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, jumped in March, bolstering the case for higher interest rates in the euro region.
The Australian dollar rose for a second day before data tomorrow forecast to show China’s imports increased in April.
Losses in the U.S. dollar were tempered before U.S. reports this week that may show fewer initial jobless claims and increased retail sales, providing evidence the recovery of the world’s largest economy is maintaining momentum.

EUR/USD: the pair shown low in the field of $1,4250, then become stronger above a mark $1,4300.
GBP/USD: the pair shown low in the field of $1,6270, then returned to around $1,6400.
USD/JPY: on results of yesterday's session the pair decreased in around Y80.20.
At 1230GMT US  Import/Export Price Index is expected to a 1.8% m/m gain for the Import Price Index.
At 1400GMT US Wholesale Inventories data is due.

Switzerland: Consumer Price Index +0.1% MoM, +0.3% YoY
Stocks: Monday's review

Japanese stocks fell for a second day on concern that a government request to shut a nuclear reactor located close to an earthquake fault-line may hurt the economy.

Chubu Electric Power Co., based in Nagoya in central Japan, plunged 10 percent after Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan asked it to close its Hamaoka nuclear plant. Tohoku Electric Power Co. lost 2.1 percent after the Asahi newspaper reported it may post a loss. Toyota Motor Corp. (7203), the world’s largest carmaker, slid 0.5 percent. Yamaha Corp. (7951), a musical instruments maker, tumbled 5.8 percent after forecasting profit will drop, citing the March 11 quake impact.
European stocks retreated after officials agreed to review the terms of Greece’s bailout and Standard & Poor’s downgraded the nation’s credit rating, reigniting concern about the sovereign-debt crisis.
The yield on Greek two-year government bonds gained 25 basis points to 25.58 percent today. Credit-default swaps on Greece rose 30 basis points to a record 1,371, according to CMA, signaling a 68 percent probability of default within five years.
National Bank of Greece SA (ETE) led a selloff in financial shares, dropping 4.1 percent as the cost of insuring Greek debt climbed to a record. Centrica Plc (CNA) led utilities lower after saying increased taxes will hurt earnings. MAN SE (MAN) advanced 1.5 percent after Volkswagen AG (VOW) increased its stake in the truckmaker.
U.S. stocks advanced, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index higher for a second straight day, as commodity prices rebounded from the biggest drop since 2008 and McDonald’s Corp. (MCD) rallied after sales topped estimates.
Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM) and Halliburton Co. (HAL) added at least 2 percent as oil halted a five-day retreat and metal prices climbed. McDonald’s, the world’s biggest restaurant chain, increased 1.3 percent as smoothies and McCafe beverages drew U.S. customers in April. Dollar Thrifty Automotive Group Inc. (DTG) surged 13 percent as Hertz Global Holdings Inc. (HTZ) made a $2.08 billion offer. Citigroup Inc. (C), the most-traded U.S. stock in 2011, slumped 2.6 percent following a 1-for-10 reverse split.

Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3: Y81.70 (May 2 high) 
Resistance 2:Y81.20 (May 4 high, resistance line from Apr 8)
Resistance 1:Y80.85 (May 9 high) 
Current price: Y80.49
Support 1:Y80.15 (session low)  
Support 2:Y79.55 (May 5 low)  
Support 3:Y79.00 (Mar 18 low)  
Comments: the pair grown. The nearest resistance - Y80.85. Above growth is possible to Y81.20. The nearest support - Y80.15. Below losses  are possible to Y79.55. 

Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.8875 (Apr 22-25 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.8830 (Apr 27 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.8800 (May 6 high)
Current price: Chf0.8762
Support 1: Chf0.8700 (session low)
Support 2: Chf0.8675 (May 6 low)
Support 3: Chf0.8550 (May 4-5 low)
Comments: the pair become stronger. The nearest support - Chf0,8700. Below loss may extend to Chf0.8675. The nearest resistance - Chf0.8800. Above is located Chf0.8830. 

Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6550 (МА(200) for Н1)
Resistance 2: $ 1.6460 (May 6 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6420 (session high)
Current price: $1.6396
Support 1 : $1.6380 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.6270 (May 10 low)
Support 3 : $1.6220 (Apr 12, 13 and 19 low)
Comments: the pair decreased. The nearest support $1.6380. Below is possible testings of around $1.6270. The nearest resistance - around $1.6420. Above growth is possible to $1.6460. 

Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.4510 (38,2 % FIBO $1.4940-$ 1.4250)
Resistance 2: $ 1.4450 (May 9 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.4380 (session high)
Current price: $1.4327
Support 1 : $1.4250 (May 9 low)
Support 2 : $1.4150 (Apr 18, 38.2 % FIBO $1.2870-$ 1.4940)
Support 3 : $1.4020 (Mar 28 low)
Comments: the pair decreased. The nearest support $1,4250. Below losses are possible to $1.4150. The nearest resistance - $1.4380. Above growth is possible to $1,4450.

Schedule for today, Tuesday, May 10 2011:

01:30 Australia Trade Balance (Mar) 17400M
02:00 China Trade Balance (Apr) 11.400B
07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Apr) 0.6%
07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Apr) 0.5%
12:30 USA Import prices (April) 1.9% 2.7%
12:30 USA Export prices (April) - 1.5%
12:55 USA Redbook (07.05)  
14:00 USA Wholesale inventories (March) 1.0% 1.0%

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