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10.03.2011
20:19
Hot stocks:

Gainers:
TRR.N     4.87     +0.07     +1.46
AEO.N     15.66     +0.10     +0.64
AHD.N     20.90     +0.04     +0.19
JCP.N     37.00     +0.06     +0.16
NAV.N     63.13     +0.04     +0.06

Loosers:
PRM.N     4.35     -0.19     -4.19
WRE.N     29.48     -0.42     -1.39
PRGN.N     3.08     -0.03     -0.96
MER_pm.N 23.22     -0.21     -0.88
MER_pk.N 23.45     -0.13     -0.54

19:41
Dow -210.89 at 12003.00, Nasdaq -45.66 at 2706.06, S&P -22.38 at 1297.64

Stocks extended their recent pullback to fresh session lows. The move took the S&P 500 down to the 1294 line, which matches the monthly low that was set two weeks ago. Support there has helped stocks make a modest rebound effort, though.

19:25
EUR/USD posted new session low

Finally cracked the residual bids around $1.3790, nudges to $1.3784 as initial flush of stops runs its course. Further stops sub $1.3780, ahad of $1.3740, 50% of the latest rally.

18:33
European shares fell to the lowest closing level in 2011

European shares fell to the lowest closing level so far this year on Thursday, on economic recovery and sovereign debt concerns that could see a key technical level challenged in the short term.

18:01
Dow -178.68 at 12034.41, Nasdaq -44.48 at 2706.52, S&P -19.96 at 1299.89

Stocks have slipped a bit in recent trade. Buyers had been defending many of the market's dips during the past couple of hours. Treasuries have eased back in recent trade, too. They are still up with slight gains ahead of results from an auction of 30-year Bonds at the top of the hour.

17:24
American focus: dollar gains across the board

The euro fell to the lowest level in a week against the dollar after Moody’s Investors Service lowered Spain’s credit rating, increasing pressure on European leaders to find a solution to the region’s debt crisis.
The shared currency weakened against most of its major peers as Spanish debt was downgraded to Aa2 by Moody’s, which also cut Greece’s ranking this week. Currencies of commodity- exporting countries weakened after China reported an unexpected trade deficit and crude oil prices fell. The pound stayed lower versus the greenback after the Bank of England left interest rates at a record low.
“The euro has been hobbled by negative risk flows,” said Boris Schlossberg, director of research at online currency trader GFT Forex in New York. “The greatest risk that the market is starting to fear is that the spate of downgrades within the euro zone and the expansion of the periphery credit risks could force the European Central Bank to possibly delay the rate hike, which is already priced into the currency.”
The euro may decline to as low as $1.3538 should it break below the key support level of $1.3978, the 78.6 percent Fibonacci retracement from its November peak, according to Karen Jones, head of fixed-income, commodity and currency technical analysis at Commerzbank AG in London.
“A break below support at the 20-day moving average at $1.3752 targets a move down toward $1.3538, the 55-day moving average,” she said.
European leaders are due to meet tomorrow having set a March 25 deadline to approve a “comprehensive” package of measures to end the sovereign-debt crisis. Moody’s said the outlook for the Spanish rating is “negative,” meaning the next change is most likely to be another cut.

16:53
DB says after considering jobless claims and NFIB data, they anticipate +200k for March nonfarm payrolls.
16:43
ECB MERSCH: commodity prices may stay high longer than desired
  • EFSF needs larger volume, more flexibility;
  • Banks need adequate capitalization;
  • ECB rate hike pre-announcement in line with mandate;
  • Markets awaiting decisions on EMU debt crisis;
  • Uncertainty especially high ahead of EU decisions
16:42
ECB MERSCH: commodity prices may stay high longer than desired
  • EFSF needs larger volume, more flexibility;
  • Banks need adequate capitalization;
  • ECB rate hike pre-announcement in line with mandate;
  • Markets awaiting decisions on EMU debt crisis;
  • Uncertainty especially high ahead of EU decisions
15:22
Dow -195.60 at 12017.49, Nasdaq -46.99 at 2704.73, S&P -21.28 at 1298.74

Stocks are attempting to stabilize after suffering a precipitous drop at the open. Losses remain deep and broad, though. In fact, 95% of the issues in the S&P 500 are in the red.
Amid the bloodshed, airline stocks have actually put together a 0.1% gain, as measured by the Amex Airline Index. The bid for airline shares comes as oil prices push down to $102 per barrel, which makes for a 2.3% loss.

15:07
JPM on jobless claims

JPM notes jobless claims remain "more than 25,000 lower than that reported for the February payroll survey week. The claims data may be bounce around somewhat, but we believe the overall trend is consistent with healing in the labor market."

14:21
Before the bell:

U.S. stocks were poised to follow overseas markets lower Thursday, after China reported a surprise trade deficit and Spain's credit rating was lowered one notch.
A wider U.S. trade gap and a slightly worse-than-expected jobless claims report pressured futures but analysts expect that to ease as investors digest the data.



The U.S. trade balance for January widened to $46.3 billion, a five-month high. This was much wider than the $41.5 billion gap forecast, according to a consensus estimate.
The U.S. Department of Labor released the latest weekly initial unemployment claims data, which totaled 397,000. Economists expected the number of people filing for first-time benefits to have risen to 382,000 last week from 368,000 the previous week.

In addition, the European debt crisis has returned to the forefront this week, with Moody's lowering Spain's credit rating Thursday, after downgrading Greece earlier this week. Moody's cut Spain's government bond rating to Aa2 with a negative outlook from Aa1, and said further downgrades are possible.
China reported a $7.3 billion trade deficit in February, as imports soared and exports rose only slightly. Government officials attributed the cooling exports to Chinese New Year, when the country's manufacturing output slowed dramatically.
World markets:
Companies: Starbucks (SBUX) and Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR) announced a deal that will put Starbucks coffee into Green Mountain's K-Cup single-cup brewing packets.
Shares of Green Mountain were up 9% in premarket trading, Starbucks stock was up more than 1% on the deal.
Hospital chain HCA (HCA) raised its public offering to 126.2 million shares at a price of $30 per share, according to published reports. It is considered to be the largest private-equity backed IPO in U.S. history, according to Renaissance Capital, raising an estimated $3.8 billion for both the company and existing shareholders.
Oil for April delivery slipped $1.02 to $103.36 a barrel.
Gold futures for April delivery fell $10.10 to $1,419.50 an ounce.
The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose, pushing the yield down to 3.46% from 3.47% late Wednesday.

13:33
US: Jan trade bal -$46.3b
13:32
US: Initial jobless claims +26k to 397k in Mar 5 wk
13:31
GBP/USD remains under pressure

Stops below $1.6210 targeted and triggered, as rate drops back to $1.6108, with rate retaining a heavy tone as recovery efforts remains very shallow. Next support seen at $1.6104, the level corresponding to the 76.4% retrace of the move up from $1.6030 to $1.6344. More stops noted on a break of $1.6100, which if triggered to open a deeper move toward $1.6075/70.

12:57
Orders

EUR/USD
Offers $1.3895/900, $1.3880, $1.3850
Bids $1.3820, $1.3800

12:49
European session: The U.S. currency rose

Data:
09:00 European Monetary Union ECB Monthly Report
09:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jan) 1.0%
09:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan) 0.5%
09:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) (Jan) 4.4%
09:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Jan) 6.8%
12:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision (Mar) 0.5%

The euro fell to the lowest level in a week against the dollar after Moody’s Investors Service lowered Spain’s credit rating, increasing pressure on European leaders to find a solution to the region’s debt crisis.
The pound declined versus the greenback before the Bank of England’s interest-rate decision today. 
The U.S. currency rose on prospects jobs data will signal a continued recovery in the world’s largest economy. 
The Swiss franc and the yen gained as violence escalated in Libya.
European leaders are due to meet tomorrow having set a March 25 deadline to approve a “comprehensive” package of measures to end the sovereign-debt crisis. Moody’s said the outlook for the Spanish rating is “negative,” meaning the next change is most likely to be another cut.

EUR/USD: the pair bargained in the field of $1,3820.
GBP/USD: the pair  shown low in the field of $1,6120 then grown. However later decrease renewed. 
USD/USD: the pair bargained in the field of Y82,90.

US data starts at 1330GMT with Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 5).

12:04
UK: BOE MPC leaves QE unchanged at stg200bln

Keeps Bank rate unchanged, as widely expected.
Bank rate remains at 0.5%

11:21
EUR/USD:

Offers at $1.3850 so far able to counter rate's recovery efforts, though corrective pullbacks remain shallow and keeps hopes alive for a stronger recovery. Intraday stops said to begin above $1.3850, more through $1.3860. Rate currently trades around $1.3845. Support remains in place at $1.3830, stronger on approach to $1.3800

10:31
Option expiries for today's 1500GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.3725, $1.3950, $1.4000, $1.4050 
USD/JPY Y82.20, Y82.50, Y83.05
EUR/JPY Y115.90, Y113.00, Y112.00
GBP/USD $1.6000, $1.6365
USD/CHF Chf0.9275
AUD/USD $1.0200, $1.0130, $1.0100, $1.0060, $1.0050, $1.0000
NZD/USD $0.7425, $0.7470, $0.7480
AUD/NZD NZ$1.3800

10:07
FTSE -32.41 -0.55% 5,904.89, CAC -21.90 -0.55% 3,971.91, Dax -37.26 -0.52% 7,094.54
09:32
UK DATA: Jan manufacturing output +1% m/m; +6.8% y/y; Jan industrial production +0.5% m/m; +4.4% y/y
09:01
Asian stocks declined:

Hang Seng -0.82% 23,614.89
Shanghai Composite -1.5%  2,957.14
Nikkei -1.46% 10,434.38

08:58
Asian session: The dollar rose

Data:
00:30 Australia Employment Change s.a. (Feb) -10.1K
00:30 Australia Unemployment Rate s.a. (Feb) 5%
03:01 China Trade Balance (Feb) -7.300B 

The dollar rose against all its major counterparts on prospects jobs data will signal a continued recovery in the world’s largest economy amid signs growth in Asia is slowing.
The euro fell to the lowest in one week against the greenback after Moody’s Investors Service downgraded Spain ahead of a European Union leaders meeting tomorrow on measures to address the region’s debt crisis. 
Australia’s dollar dropped by the most in two weeks as employers unexpectedly reduced jobs and China reported a trade deficit.
Chinese exports rose an annual 2.4 percent, the slowest pace since November 2009, and imports climbed 19.4 percent, according to data on the country’s customs bureau website today. It had a $7.3 billion trade deficit, the biggest in seven years. China is Australia’s largest trading partner.
The New Zealand dollar was close to the weakest level in five months after the nation’s central bank cut the benchmark interest rate to match a record low to help the economy recover from the deadliest earthquake in 80 years.

EUR/USD: the pair overcome a yesterday's low and decreased in around $1,3820.
GBP/USD: the pair decreased in around $1,6150.
USD/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of Y82,70-Y82,95.

At 0900GMT, the ECB issues the March monthly report, the editorial of which is usually much of a repeat of the opening statement from the latest ECB press conference.
UK data starts at 0930GMT with industrial production data, which is expected to rise 0.4% m/m, 4.2% y/y and manufacturing output, which is expected to rise by 0.8% m/m, 6.4% y/y. The main focus of the session 
could be on the Bank of England MPC announcement with rates expected to remain on hold at 0.5% and with the asset purchase program also unchanged. Recent comments suggest that the majority of the MPC would like to see firm signs that the Q4 growth shock was an aberration before sanctioning a rate rise. If that more or less reassures and inflation stays where it is - or higher - then the MPC looks set to find a 
majority for a move in May. Recent CIPS PMIs did not provide much comfort on the growth front, showing an overall 'flattish' picture although cost and price pressures remain strong.

08:45
Forex: Wednesday's review

The euro fell against most of its peers after Portugal was forced to pay more at a debt auction than it has in the past, indicating concern the region is struggling to contain its sovereign-debt crisis. 
Portugal sold 1 billion euros ($1.4 billion) of securities due September 2013. The bonds were issued at an average yield of 5.993 percent, the country’s debt management agency said. That compares with an average yield of 4.086 percent at a previous auction of the same-maturity debt on Sept. 8. The auction attracted bids for 1.6 times the amount offered, compared with a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.9 in September. 
The 17-nation currency rose earlier on speculation the European Central Bank asked for prices to purchase the securities of the region’s most indebted nations. The central bank inquired about prices for Irish bonds and didn’t buy, according to two traders with knowledge of the matter.
The Swiss franc rose against all of its 16 most-traded counterparts as crude oil prices increased on concern turmoil in North Africa and the Mideast will disrupt supply, encouraging investors to seek refuge.
Crude oil gained 0.3 percent to $105.33 a barrel in New York. It reached a two and a half year high of $106.95 earlier this week.
Currencies of commodity-exporting countries strengthened against the dollar as raw materials rose for an eight day in nine.

EUR/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1,3850-$ 1,3940.
GBP/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair become stronger in around $1,6200.
USD/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of Y82,55-Y82,95.

At 0900GMT, the ECB issues the March monthly report, the editorial of which is usually much of a repeat of the opening statement from the latest ECB press conference.
UK data starts at 0930GMT with industrial production data, which is expected to rise 0.4% m/m, 4.2% y/y and manufacturing output, which is expected to rise by 0.8% m/m, 6.4% y/y. The main focus of the session 
could be on the Bank of England MPC announcement with rates expected to remain on hold at 0.5% and with the asset purchase program also unchanged. Recent comments suggest that the majority of the MPC would like to see firm signs that the Q4 growth shock was an aberration before sanctioning a rate rise. If that more or less reassures and inflation stays where it is - or higher - then the MPC looks set to find a 
majority for a move in May. Recent CIPS PMIs did not provide much comfort on the growth front, showing an overall 'flattish' picture although cost and price pressures remain strong.

08:21
Moody's has today downgraded Spain's government bond ratings by one notch to Aa2 from Aa1. The outlook on the Aa2 ratings is negative.
07:45
Stocks: Wednesday's review

Japanese stocks advanced, sending the Topix index to its first gain in three days, as a decline in oil prices eased concern higher energy costs will impede the global economic recovery.
Nippon Yusen K.K. , Japan’s No. 1 shipping line, climbed 1.7 percent as cargo rates increased and oil prices eased for a second day. Nintendo Co., the world’s largest maker of video- game players, jumped 3.7 percent, after saying a new game set a sales record. Bridgestone Corp., the biggest tiremaker, advanced 3.1 percent after Citigroup Inc. raised the stock’s target price.
Sheikh Ahmad al-Abdullah al-Sabah, Kuwait’s oil minister, yesterday told reporters that the OPEC secretariat is considering holding talks on increasing production amid supply disruptions in Libya. Crude for April delivery decreased as much as 81 cents to $104.21 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange today.
European stocks declined as concern that continuing unrest in the Middle East and North Africa will harm the economy overshadowed takeover bids for Iberdrola Renovables SA (IBR) and Tognum AG. (TGM)
Alcatel-Lucent SA paced falling shares after U.S. rival Finisar Corp. forecast earnings that missed estimates. Tullow Oil Plc (TLW) dropped 3.2 percent after the Africa-focused explorer reported profit that lagged forecasts. Iberdrola Renovables jumped 11 percent after parent company Iberdrola SA (IBE) bid 2.5 billion euros ($3.5 billion) to buy out minority investors. Tognum rallied 7.3 percent as Daimler AG and Rolls-Royce Group Plc offered to buy the company.
Gains in Europe were also limited after Moritz Kraemer, managing director of European sovereign ratings at Standard & Poor’s, warned some countries may have their credit ratings cut further while a Greek debt default is a “possibility.”
Portugal today borrowed 1 billion euros in the first bond auction for two months, opting to endure surging interest costs as it tries to avoid following Greece and Ireland in seeking a bailout. The nation sold 5.45 percent bonds due September 2013 at an average yield of 5.993 percent, compared with an average yield of 4.086 percent at a sale of the same-maturity debt on Sept. 8.
U.S. stocks swung between gains and losses as violence in Libya tempered optimism that the biggest equity rally since 1955 will be extended into a third year.
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) and DuPont Co. fell at least 1.1 percent, pacing losses in industrial shares. Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN) slumped 3.1 percent as the largest analog chipmaker narrowed its profit estimate. Finisar Corp. (FNSR) tumbled as much as 38 percent, leading other network-equipment makers lower, as its profit forecast missed analyst estimates. International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) rose to a record as Deutsche Bank AG lifted its share-price estimate for the largest computer-services provider.
Crude oil fluctuated near $105 a barrel as a surge in supplies at a U.S. hub overshadowed concern about escalating violence in Libya.

07:15
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3:Y84.00 (Feb 16 high) 
Resistance 2:Y83.50 (Feb 22 high) 
Resistance 1:Y82.90 (session high) 
Current price: Y82.85
Support 1:Y82.60 (Mar 9 low)    
Support 2:Y82.20 (Mar 8 low)
Support 3:Y81.90 (Mar 7 low)    
Comments: the pair slightly become stronger. The nearest resistance - Y82.90. Above growth is possible to Y83.50. The nearest support - Y82,60. Below losses are possible to Y82.20. 

07:13
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9390 (Feb 23 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9370 (Mar 9 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9320 (session high)
Current price: Chf0.9314
Support 1: Chf0.9290 (support line from Mar 2)
Support 2: Chf0.9200 (Mar 2 low)
Support 3: Chf0.9100 (psychological mark)
Comments: the pair becomes stronger. The nearest resistance - Chf0.9320.  Above is located Chf0.9370. The nearest support - Chf0.9290. Below lossmay extend to Chf0.9200. 

07:12
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6450 (high of Jan 2010)
Resistance 2: $ 1.6340 (Mar 2 and 7 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6240 (Mar 4 low, Mar 9 high)
Current price: $1.6166
Support 1 : $1.6120 (Mar 8 low)
Support 2 : $1.6090 (support line from Feb 11)
Support 3 : $1.5960 (Feb 11 low)
Comments: the pair decreases. The nearest support $1.6120. Below is possible testings of around $1.6090. The nearest resistance $1.6240. Above growth is possible to $1.6340. 

07:10
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.4030 (Mar 7 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.3990 (Mar 8 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.3940 (Mar 9 high)
Current price: $1.3870
Support 1 : $1.3850 (Mar 9 low)
Support 2 : $1.3830 (Mar 3 low)
Support 3 : $1.3740 (Mar 2 low, support line from Feb 14)
Comments: the pair decreased at the morning. The nearest support $1,3850. Below losses are possible to $1.3830. The nearest resistance $1.3940. Above growth is possible to $1,3990.

07:03
The German trade surplus shrank to E11.8 billion in January
06:52
Schedule for today, Thursday, Mar 10 2011:

07:00 Germany Current account (January) unadjusted, bln - 17.6
07:00 Germany Trade balance (January) unadjusted, bln 12.2 11.9
09:30 UK Industrial production (January) 0.4% 0.5%
09:30 UK Industrial production (January) Y/Y 4.2% 3.6%
09:30 UK Manufacturing output (January) 0.7% -0.1%
09:30 UK Manufacturing output (January) Y/Y 6.3% 4.4%
12:00 UK BoE meeting announcement 0.50% 0.50%
13:30 USA Jobless claims (week to 05.03) 383K 368K
13:30 USA International trade (January), bln -41.2 -40.6
19:00 USA Federal budget (February), bln -225.0 -49.8

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