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Dow -46.36 at 11628.40, Nasdaq +0.57 at 2703.74, S&P -2.75 at 1268.75

Led by the likes of Apple (AAPL 341.55, +5.43), Adobe (ADBE 32.65, +0.61), and Dell (DELL 14.07, +0.09), the Nasdaq has fully erased its loss for the session. However, it has yet to garner the momentum necessary to push past resistance at the neutral line. Microsoft (MSFT 28.21, -0.39), Cisco (CSCO 20.75, -0.22), and Celgene (CELG 56.88, -2.28) have hampered the Composite.

USD/CAD weakens

USD/CAD set stable near C$0.9930, holding in the middle of the afternoon's C$0.9920/40 range thus far. Flows very muted, USD slightly defensive but needs to break C$0.9880 for any momentum to build.

EUR/USD holds higher

EUR/USD retreats to $1.2945 before back to current $1.2960.Another asserts that if euro is unable to tackle $1.3020 area in any meaningful way this afternoon or tonight, fresh selling likely will emerge.

US focus: Dollar declines as stocks pare loss, oil gains, reducing demand for safety

The dollar fell for the first time in six days against the currencies of major U.S. trading partners as global stocks pared losses and commodities gained, damping demand for the relative safety of greenback.
The euro rose from the lowest level against the dollar since September before sovereign-debt auctions in Portugal, Spain and Italy on speculation the currency’s biggest weekly drop since August would be hard to sustain.
“The market looks very short in euros against dollars and other major currencies,” said Hidetoshi Yanagihara, a senior currency trader at Mizuho Financial Group Inc.. “We’re seeing a short-covering ahead of the bond auctions.”

Canada’s dollar gained, reversing earlier losses, as the rebound in commodity prices overshadowed Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis. Crude oil, Canada’s largest export, rose 1.1%.
The Dollar Index advanced 2.5% last week in its biggest rally since August as reports showed U.S. services industries expanded in December at the fastest pace in four years and employers added jobs for a third month.
The greenback will gain 5% versus the euro and 11% versus the yen, according to Nick Bennenbroek, head strategist at Wells Fargo & Co. and the most accurate currency forecaster in the six quarters ended Dec. 31.
U.S. retail sales climbed 0.8% last month, the same amount as in November, according to the median forecast of economists in a survey before the Commerce Department publishes the figures on Jan. 14.

EUR/USD holds higher

EUR/USD flushed some stops above $1.2955 area for fresh high prints at $1.2960 or so, the pair still crawling higher but amid light flows. Area of $1.2965/80 earlier said to hold further supply but stops are also mentioned in the upper reaches of that range, likely to make for some chop. Further supply seen to $1.3000 but traders say that the Friday high at $1.3020 area should offer further significant resistance.

USD/JPY remains under pressure

USD/JPY continues to trade with a heavy tone, but thus far able to maintain a finger-hold above the morning low at Y82.68 seen after stops were flushed below Y82.80. Dollar expected to find demand interest on approach to Y82.50, with stops positioned below.

Dow -93.17 на 11581.59, Nasdaq -20.73 на 2682.44, S&P -8.49 на 1263.01
Selling has intensified in the past few minutes of trade. The effort has taken the major averages to fresh session lows. Though selling has been broad based, materials stocks are under the most pressure at the moment. The sector has already lost 1.4%. That comes even though many underlying basic materials and commodities are presently trading higher. Consumer staples stocks are at the opposite end of the spectrum. They are currently off by just 0.3%, collectively. Advancing Sectors: (None) Declining Sectors: Materials (-1.4%), Utilities (-1.1%), Energy (-1.0%), Telecom (-1.0%), Financial (-0.8%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.7%), Industrials (-0.5%), Tech (-0.4%), Health Care (-0.4%), Consumer Staples (-0.3%)
US OUTLOOK: State St says employment data show US economy is making "sequential improvement" but no surge.
They still expect Fed to complete $600b QE2 and say 10y could go to 3% over a few wks. They also expect upward revision to Dec's +103k payrolls. "Over the prior eleven months, the Labor Department's advance estimate of total nonfarm payrolls has included a net back-month upward revision of +40.9k."
Before the bell: U.S. stocks were poised for a lower open Monday.

Dow Jones industrial average (INDU), S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq (COMP) futures were down ahead of the opening bell. Futures measure current index values against perceived future performance.

On Friday, stocks dropped after a court ruled against Wells Fargo and U.S. Bancorp in a foreclosure case. The ruling sparked a selloff in bank stocks that rippled through the broader market.

The government's latest reading on the labor market also dragged markets lower. The U.S. economy added slightly fewer-than-expected jobs in December, but the unemployment rate edged lower than economists had anticipated.

That disappointment may continue to trickle into trading this week, said David Jones, chief market strategist at IG Markets.

"There's still an air of caution after the payroll data on Friday," Jones said. "The market had factored in a good number, so anything less than expected is always going to be a disappointment, and shows what a problem U.S. employment really still is going forward."

World markets: European markets fell in morning trading, amid talk that Portugal is being pressured to take a bailout package to stop the spread of eurozone debt. Investors are also preparing for government bond auctions in Portugal, Spain and Italy this week.

"Markets are worrying that the European debt crisis is coming back again," Jones said. "[Portugal] is denying that they need [a bailout], but we saw that with Greece and Ireland as well before they got bailouts."

Britain's FTSE 100 edged down 0.5%, the DAX in Germany lost 1% and France's CAC 40 dropped 1.6%.

Asian markets ended the session lower. The Shanghai Composite fell 1.7% and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong slipped 0.7%. Japan's Nikkei was closed for holiday.

Companies: Shares of Sara Lee (SLE, Fortune 500) jumped nearly 7% in pre-market trading on reports that Apollo Global Management and other private equity firms are looking into acquiring the food company.

Chemical maker DuPont (DD, Fortune 500) said Sunday it will buy Danisco, a Danish enzyme and food ingredients company, for $5.8 billion in cash. Shares of DuPont edged slightly lower in early trading.

Shares of Progress Energy (PGN, Fortune 500) rose more than 2% before the opening bell, after Duke Energy (DUK, Fortune 500) said it will buy the fellow power company for $13.7 billion in stock.

Stocks brace for earnings test
After markets close, Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500) will release its quarterly results, the first of the Dow components to report its fourth-quarter figures. The aluminum maker is expected to announced earnings per share of 19 cents, according to analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters.

European session: euro remains under the pressure

The euro was little changed versus the dollar as Portuguese bonds advanced amid speculation the European Central Bank bought government securities before debt auctions this week.
“The dollar seems to be benefiting at long last from increasing optimism about the U.S. economy,” Sue Trinh, a senior currency strategist at Royal Bank of Canada, said in a telephone interview from London.
The British pound slipped versus the dollar and euro as data showed U.K. house prices fell the most in three months in December.
Ten-year gilts declined before the Bank of England’s decision on interest rates on Jan. 13. Lloyds Banking Group Plc’s Halifax mortgage-lending division said today that average house prices dropped 1.3 percent to 163,435 pounds ($254,000) from the previous month.

EUR/USD: pushed posted new session high at $1.2940, but offers placed in the area between $1.2940/45 halted the advance and forced the pare back under  $1.2900. Offers: $1.2940/45, $1.2965/70, $1.2980/85, $1.3000, $1.3020/25. Bids: $1.2850, $1.2830/25, $1.2800.

GBP/USD: tested demand placed at $1.5475/70, before bounced back to $1.5435/30.

USD/JPY: traded within Y82.90-Y83.30 range.


ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet: confirm recovery of global economy

recovery particularly impressive in emerging world
Emu & many other economies have surprised on the upside
infl a general feature of emerging econs at present
not seeing emerging world's inflation in advanced economies
extremely important to keep infl expect under control
control of inflation expect calls for appropriate decisions
global unity of purpose that must deliver price stability
message for all is certainly to have sound fisc policy
seeing food, oil prices;must watch very very carefully
FDI in some cases very dynamic, helpful for recovery
short-term emerging mkt inflows sometimes a concern

Option expiries for today's 1500GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.2900, $1.3000, $1.3050, $1.3100
USD/JPY Y84.00, Y83.50, Y83.30, Y82.65, Y81.65
GBP/USD $1.5500
USD/CHF Chf0.9600
AUD/USD $0.9975, $0.9800
EUR/AUD A$1.3200

OECD: November leading indicators point to faster economic expansion

Clear signs of pick-up in US, France, Japan, China
Signals for steady growth in Germany, UK, Italy, Canada, Russia, India
November leading OECD indicator +0.3 pt m/m, +2.9 pts y/y

Orders desk

Offers: $1.2940/45, $1.2965/70, $1.2980/85, $1.3000, $1.3020/25
Bids: $1.2850, $1.2830/25, $1.2800

GBP/USD remains under pressure

Reported demand at $1.5475/70 under pressure, as is resistance at stg0.8330/35 in the cross. Cable has touched a low of $1.5475 with recovery efforts so far remaining laboured. Rate currently trades around $1.5490. Resistance seen at $1.5400/05, stops above $1.5410. Break under $1.5475/70 will expose the key support area $1.5450/20.

CHINA, SAFE: Country facing bigger FX inflow pressure
  • QE2 has increased global liquidity;
  • QE2 could trigger more global FX intervention
Asian session: The euro traded near its lowest level in more than three months

The euro traded near its lowest level in more than three months against the yen on concern European nations will struggle to raise funds, diminishing the allure of assets in the region.
Europe’s currency was also close to a three-month low versus the dollar after a slide in Portugal’s government bonds last week dimmed the outlook for debt auctions there, in Spain and Italy over the next three days.
Australia’s dollar was near a three-week low as floods worsened in Queensland, which accounts for about 20 percent of the nation’s economy, and China reported a trade surplus that was less than economists forecast.
China’s customs bureau said today its trade surplus was $13.1 billion in December, less than the $20.8 billion median estimate of economists. China is Australia’s largest trading partner and New Zealand’s second- biggest export market.

EUR/USD: the pair bargained in the field of $1,2900.

GBP/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1,5520-$ 1,5570.

USD/JPY: the pair bargained within the limits of Y82,90-Y83,30.

In the UK, at 0800GMT, the December Halifax House Price Index is due.

Stocks: weekly review

Asian stocks sputtered at the start of the year as tightening fears held back the Indian and Chinese markets but Tokyo had its best first week in 15 years.
The FTSE Asia-Pacific index slipped 0.3 per cent to 264.48, its first negative week for a month, falling away from Tuesday’s 30-month highs as the market mood was dominated early on by optimism over global growth. But inflation fears gripping Mumbai and Shanghai sapped sentiment as the week progressed.
Banks in the line of fire of the sell-off included State Bank of India, the country’s top lender, which sank 7.4 per cent to Rs2,601 over the week. HDFC, the nation’s third-largest, dropped 3 per cent to Rs2,269.45 while Axis Bank, the fourth- largest, declined 5 per cent to Rs1,280.65 after its rating was lowered by RBS Equities India.
Sydney stocks on the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.9 per cent to 4,705.04 as the economic impact of severe flooding in Queensland and volatile commodity prices dented sentiment.
Rio Tinto, which has mining operations affected by the flooding, dropped 1.2 per cent to A$84.48 while peer BHP Billiton was off 1.4 per cent at A$44.62.
But the Nikkei 225 Average in Toyko surged to eight-month highs this week, rising 3.1 per cent to 10.541.04 on a weaker yen boosting exporters and healthy foreign fund flows. The broader Topix also rose 3.1 per cent to 926.42, its best yearly start since 1996.

For the week as a whole, European equities made strong gains. The FTSE Eurofirst 300 index was up 2 per cent, bouncing back from a poor final week in December which saw the index down 2.3 per cent in thin trading.
December 2010 had seen 5.1 per cent gains as traders took an optimistic view on equities for 2011, This sanguine attitude continued in the first few days of trading in the new year, helped by healthy US jobs data mid-week from ADP Employer Services.
Transocean, the Swiss-listed oil rig contractor and owner of the Deepwater Horizon drilling platform that exploded in the Gulf of Mexico in April, saw healthy gains after a US government report into the oil spill stopped short of raising concern in the market that the costs associated with the spill would be more significant than levels already factored into stock prices.
Transocean was up 12.7 per cent to SFr72.20.
European financials lost ground, weighing on wider indices, after concerns over the eurozone sovereign debt crisis were revived by a European Commission report on how to deal with banking failures in the future.
The report, released on Thursday, proposed that senior bondholders should share the pain of any future bank failures to reduce the burden on taxpayers. This caused sovereign bond yields to spike up across the region and many financial stocks to sink to decade-long lows.
On Friday, in Portugal, Banco Espirito Santo dropped to a 14-year low, falling 5.6 per cent to €2.64, while Banco BPI also sank to a 14-year low, declining 2.9 per cent to €1.32.
In Spain, Bankinter was sent to a 13-year low, losing 3.2 per cent to €3.89, while Banco Popular fell to a one-year low, down 2.3 per cent to €3.66.
Adding to investor concern was news that the Swiss National Bank had stopped accepting Portuguese government securities as collateral for repurchase agreements.

The S&P 500 was down 0.4 per cent to 1,268.40 by midday, higher by 0.9 per cent over the week.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was 0.4 per cent lower at 11,652.21, adding 0.6 per cent over the five days, and the Nasdaq Composite had edged down 0.4 per cent to 2,698.69 but was up 1.7 per cent on the week.
US stocks have had a positive start to the year but Thomas Lee, equity strategist at JPMorgan, said this could point to a pause in the rally in March or April.
He said that historically positive investor sentiment surveys had been followed by a pullback within 60 to 70 days.
AIG, the bailed-out insurer, rose 1.4 per cent to $61.31 after it said it was on track to complete a recapitalisation as soon as next week. The board has approved a plan to give warrants to non-government shareholders enabling them to buy shares at $45, as a sweetener to the substantial dilution that will occur when the Treasury assumes its 92.1 per cent stake.
Diamond Offshore rose 4.3 per cent to $70.15 after analysts at Goldman Sachs raised the deep water oil driller’s rating from “sell” to “conviction buy” and said there could be 25 per cent upside to the share price.
Baker Hughes also benefited from a Goldman upgrade, jumping 4.5 per cent to $57.28, after analysts upgraded the oilfield services provider from “neutral” to “buy”, saying they expected the difference between its margins and those of its peers to narrow.
Falling financials led US stocks lower after the US economy added fewer jobs than expected in December, and there were fears that some home foreclosures could be invalidated.
But financials also suffered as one of the sectors most exposed to the sluggish economic recovery.
JPMorgan fell 3 per cent to $43.17, Morgan Stanley declined by 1.4 per cent to $28.41 and Bank of America lost 2.2 per cent to $14.12.
Payrolls increased by 103,000 compared with an average estimate of 150,000. Some economists had revised their figures higher after Wednesday’s ADP report showed a surprisingly large leap in employment. The unemployment rate, which was forecast to fall from 9.8 per cent to 9.7 per cent, actually declined further – down to 9.4 per cent.
Citigroup fell 0.8 per cent to $4.91 after sources said that the bank was seeking buyers for CitiFinancial, the largest consumer finance company in the US. The deal could raise hundreds of millions of dollars.

Forex: weekly review

The dollar surge continued this week, hitting a four-month high against the euro as optimism over the pace of the US recovery supported the currency.
The dollar benefited as a report on Wednesday showed record growth in US private sector employment. Analysts said the figures were the latest in a series, ranging from trade to retail sales, suggesting the US recovery was gaining speed.
Although the US employment report on Friday showed non-farm payrolls rose by less than expected in December, it did little to stem the dollar’s gains.
Over the week, the dollar climbed 2.5 per cent to Y83.21 against the yen, rose 0.5 per cent to $1.5515 against the pound, gained 3.4 per cent to SFr0.9660 against the Swiss franc and was up 2.2 per cent at $0.9975 against the Australian dollar. The dollar also rose 3 per cent to $1.2970 against the euro on the week, as concerns over the fiscal health of countries on the periphery of the eurozone intensified. The euro slid amid a sharp sell-off in peripheral government bonds ahead of a flurry of issuance next week.
On Wednesday, Portugal was forced to pay a sharply higher price to refinance its debt and was again the focus of concern on Friday, with the yield on its benchmark bonds at euro-era highs. Jane Foley at Rabobank said that as yields rose, the chances of a bail-out for Portugal increased: “While the relatively small size of Portugal’s funding needs suggests that a Portuguese bail-out will not exert a huge amount of pressure on the eurozone support fund, it will raise the risk of a speculative attack on the Spanish debt market.”
During the week, the euro dropped 2.5 per cent to £0.8355 against the pound and lost 0.6 per cent to Y107.91 against the yen.
Elsewhere, concerns in certain emerging market countries that the strength of their currencies could undermine their export sectors re-emerged, triggering renewed “currency wars” rhetoric. The Chilean peso tumbled 6.5 per cent to 496.50 pesos against the dollar over the week after the country announced it was increasing its dollar reserves in a bid to check gains in its currency.

Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3:Y84.50 (high of December)
Resistance 2:Y83.90 (Dec 21 high)
Resistance 1:Y83,70 (Jan 7 high)
Current price: Y83.09
Support 1:Y83.00 (support line from Jan 4)
Support 2:Y82.65 (38,2 % FIBO Y80,90-Y83,70)
Support 3:Y82.30 (50,0 % FIBO Y80,90-Y83,70)

Comments: the pair bargains above a mark Y83.00. The nearest resistance - Y83,70. Above growth is possible to Y83.90. The nearest support - Y83,00. Below losses are possible to Y82.65.

Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9770 (61,8 % FIBO Chf1,0070-Chf0,9300)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9735 (Dec 16 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9710 (Jan 6 high)
Current price: Chf0.9644
Support 1: Chf0.9600 (Jan 7 low)
Support 2: Chf0.9550 (38,2 % FIBO Chf0,9300-Chf0,9710)
Support 3: Chf0.9500 (50,0 % FIBO Chf0,9300-Chf0,9710)

Comments: the pair bargains in the field of Chf0,9650. The nearest resistance Chf0,9710. Above is located Chf0.9735. The nearest support Chf0,9600. Below loss may extend to Chf0.9550.

Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.5710 (38,2 % FIBO $1,6300-$ 1,5350)
Resistance 2: $ 1.5660 (Dec 31 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.5575 (resistance line from Dec 31)
Current price: $1.5538
Support 1 : $1.5520 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.5420 (support line from Dec 30)
Support 3 : $1.5350 (around of Dec 22, 28, 29 and 30 low)

Comments: the pair bargains above a mark $1,5500. The nearest support - $1,5520. Below decrease is possible to $1.5420. The nearest resistance - $1,5575. Above growth is possible to $1,5660.

Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.3170 (Jan 6 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.3075 (around of Dec 21, 22, 27 and 29 low)
Resistance 1: $ 1.3020 (Jan 7 high)
Current price: $1.2909
Support 1 : $1.2870 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.2800 (61,8 % FIBO $1.1870-$ 1.4280)
Support 3 : $1.2640 (low of September)

Comments: the pair remains under pressure. The nearest support - $1,2870. Below decrease is possible to $1.2800. The nearest resistance - $1,3020. Above growth is possible to $1,3075.

Schedule for today, Monday, Jan'10'2011:

09:30     EU Sentix Investor Confidence     9,7     11,3     
13:30     Canada Building Permits (MoM)     -6,5%     1,2%     
21:45     NZ Building Permits, m/m     -2%

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