CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 09-10-2014

(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Light Crude 84.39 -1.61%

Gold 1,224.00 -0.11%

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei 225 15,478.93 -117.05 -0.75%

Hang Seng 23,534.53 +271.20 +1.17%

S&P/ASX 200 5,296.68 +55.42 +1.06%

FTSE 100 6,431.85 -50.39 -0.78%

CAC 40 4,141.45 -26.67 -0.64%

Xetra DAX 9,005.02 +9.69 +0.11%

S&P 500 1,928.21 -40.68 -2.07%

NASDAQ Composite 4,378.34 -90.26 -2.02%

Dow Jones 16,659.25 -334.97 -1.97%

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2688 -0,33%

GBP/USD $1,6117 -0,25%

USD/CHF Chf0,9542 +0,23%

USD/JPY Y107,80 -0,31%

EUR/JPY Y136,79 -0,62%

GBP/JPY Y173,74 -0,55%

AUD/USD $0,8770 -0,68%

NZD/USD $0,7862 -0,43%

USD/CAD C$1,1181 +0,66%

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

00:30 Australia Home Loans August +0.3% +0.2%

00:45 Australia RBA Assist Gov Edey Speaks

02:00 China New Loans September 703 750

05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence September 41.2 42.2

06:45 France Industrial Production, m/m August +0.2% -0.2%

06:45 France Industrial Production, y/y August +0.1%

08:30 United Kingdom Trade in goods August -10.2 -9.6

12:30 Canada Unemployment rate September 7.0% 7.0%

12:30 Canada Employment September -11.0 +20.0

12:30 U.S. Import Price Index September -0.9% -0.5%

13:00 U.S. FOMC Member Charles Plosser Speaks

13:00 IMF IMF Meetings

14:30 Canada Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey Quarter III

18:30 U.S. Federal budget September -128.7

The European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi said at the Brookings Institution in Washington that the central bank is willing to add more stimulus measures if needed. The ECB want to lift inflation from its low level, so Draghi.

Drgahi reiterated the ECB is ready to implement unconventional interventions if required.

The ECB president expects bank lending will pick up "soon next year".

Draghi noted that Europe faces structural problems, while the sustainable recovery is not possible without reforms.

Most stock indices traded lower due to weak economic data from Germany and France and a cut in the growth forecasts of Germany's economy. Germany's trade surplus fell to €17.5 billion in August from €22.2 billion in July, missing expectations for a decline to €18.4 billion.

German exports dropped 5.8% in August. That was the biggest decline since January 2009.

France's trade deficit widened to €5.8 billion in August from €5.5 billion in July, missing expectations for an increase to €5.7 billion.

Four German economic institutes (Ifo in Munich, DIW in Berlin, RWI in Essen and IHW in Halle) cut their forecast for Germany's economic growth to 1.3% in 2014, down from a previous forecast of 1.9%. 2015 forecast was lowered to 1.2%, down from a previous forecast of 2.0%.

The Bank of England (BoE) released its interest rate decision. The BoE kept its interest rates unchanged at 0.5% and its asset purchase program unchanged at £375 billion.

Indexes on the close:

Name Price Change Change %

FTSE 100 6,431.85 -50.39 -0.78 %

DAX 9,005.02 +9.69 +0.11 %

CAC 40 4,141.45 -26.67 -0.64 %

Prices for Brent crude fell markedly today, closer to $ 91 a barrel amid fears that the weak economic growth in Europe will reduce demand for fuel. The cost of oil WTI, meanwhile, fell to 17-month low.

Earlier today, the leading economic think tanks in Germany cut its growth forecasts for the domestic economy for this year and next, citing weak domestic and external demand and the fragile situation in the eurozone. Economic research institutes in a joint report published forecast that Europe's largest economy will grow by 1.3% this year and by 1.2% in 2015. Earlier it was expected expansion of 1.9% and 2.0%, respectively.

"Economic activity has declined in the second quarter and is likely to show stagnation in the third quarter," - said the institute. The experts also urged the government to improve investusloviya and growth factors. As we have previously reported data pointed to German exports fall fastest pace since 2009.

Lower prices also help yesterday's data on stocks. US Energy Information Administration in its weekly report reported that crude oil inventories in the United States increased by 5 million barrels for the week ending October 3, confounding expectations for a gain of 1.6 million barrels. The report also showed that gasoline inventories rose by 1.2 million barrels, confounding expectations for a decline of 1.0 million barrels. The data came the next day after the American Petroleum Institute reported that crude oil inventories rose by 5.1 million barrels for the week ending October 3, exceeding the expectations of growth of 1.4 million barrels.

It should be emphasized that many market participants are looking forward to the scheduled meeting of OPEC, which will be held on November 27th. Everyone hopes that OPEC will decide on the reduction of production quotas, which have remained unchanged since 2011. Therefore, the forecasts of the leading banks and investment laid prices at $ 90 to $ 105 per barrel in 2015.

The cost of the November futures for the American light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) fell to $ 86.64 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).

November futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mixture fell $ 0.72 to $ 91.05 a barrel on the London exchange ICE Futures Europe.

The U.S. dollar traded higher against the most major currencies after the better-than-expected the number of initial jobless claim in the U.S. The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending October 4 declined by 1,000 to 287,000 from 288,000 in the previous week. Analysts had expected the number of initial jobless claims to increase by 3,000 to 291,000.

The greenback dropped on Wednesday due to the Fed's minutes. A tone of the Fed's minutes was dovish.

Some FOMC member expressed concern about the global slowdown and about the impact of a stronger U.S. dollar.

Most FOMC members said that interest rate hike will depend on depend on data and not a calendar date.

The euro fell against the U.S. dollar. Germany's trade surplus fell to €17.5 billion in August from €22.2 billion in July, missing expectations for a decline to €18.4 billion.

German exports dropped 5.8% in August. That was the biggest decline since January 2009.

France's trade deficit widened to €5.8 billion in August from €5.5 billion in July, missing expectations for an increase to €5.7 billion.

The British pound declined against the U.S. dollar. The Bank of England kept its interest rates unchanged at 0.5% and its asset purchase program unchanged at £375 billion.

The Canadian dollar traded lower against the U.S. dollar despite the better-than-expected Canadian new housing price index. New housing price index climbed 0.3% in August, exceeding expectations for a 0.2% rise, after a flat reading in July.

The New Zealand dollar decreased against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports from New Zealand.

The Australian dollar fell against the U.S. dollar. In the overnight trading session, the Aussie rose against the greenback despite weak labour market data from Australia. The unemployment rate rose to 6.1% in September from 6.0% in August, beating expectations for an increase to 6.2%. August's figure was revised from 6.1%.

The number of employed people in Australia declined by 29,700 in September, missing expectations for a decrease by 29,600, after a rise by 32,100 in August. August's figure was revised down from an increase by 121,000.

The Japanese yen traded lower against the U.S. dollar. In the overnight trading session, the yen increased against the greenback. Japan's core machinery orders increased 4.7% in September, exceeding expectations for a 1.1% gain, after a 3.5% rise in August.

On a yearly basis, Japan's core machinery orders fell 3.3% in September, beating expectations for a 5.1% decrease, after a 1.1% gain in August.

Japan's preliminary machine tool orders decreased to 34.8% in September from 35.5% in August.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said in New York on Wednesday that Japan's economy will benefit if the BoJ pushes up inflation to its target of 2%. He also said that many tools for additional easing.

Gold prices rosetoday, reachingat the sametwo-week high, as theminutes of the Fedlowered thefears ofearlyrate hikes.Nevertheless, therecoveryyield of10-year bondsabove the lowsin Augustput pressure on theprecious metal.

RecallyesterdaypresentedMinutesof the Fed meetingpointed out thedifferencesbetween the members ofthe board of directors.Someof them believethat the existingwordingmisleadingas to the timingof rate increases,and that the growthof interest on loansshould betied tothe success ofthe American economy.The data also showedthat the central bankhas reducedthe United Stateseconomic growth forecastbecause of thefledglingdollar andconcerns aboutthe weakness ofthe global economy.Expectationsof rising interest ratesput pressure ongoldasthe precious metalis inferior incompetition withearning assetswith growthrates.

"Despite thenew interpretation of theprotocolof the meetingof the Fed,we stillbelievethat the central bankwill raiseinterest rates inthe first half of2015,andthereforedo not see anychangesin the forecastforthe gold market," -said the analystINTL FCStone.

Support forgoldalso continues to providea solutionthe International Monetary Fundlowered its forecast forglobal economic growthfor the third timethis year.IMF expertshave warned thatthe global economic recoveryis weakand uneven.

"Pricesarestillupto $1.230-1.240, butat this levelwill beprofitable to sellgold.Given thegrowth of stock markets,is expected to declinein gold pricesby the end ofthe year "- said a traderin Sydney.

Meanwhile,it was reported thatthe world's largestreserves ofthe gold-exchange-traded fundSPDR Gold Trustdeclinedyesterdayby 5.38tons to762.09tons (lowest since December2008.

The cost ofthe Decembergold futureson the COMEXtodayrose to1226.10dollars per ounce.

EUR/USD: $1.2600(E483mn), $1.2675(E258mn), $1.2700(E865mn), $1.2715-25(E1.6bn)

USD/JPY: Y107.50(Y3.0bn), Y107.75-85($650mn), Y108.00($343mn), Y108.60($833mn), Y109.00($1.25bn)

EUR/JPY: Y137.35-40(E300mn)

GBP/USD: $1.6300(stg301mn)

EUR/GBP: Stg0.7750(E170mn)

AUD/USD: $0.8750(A$683mn)

USD/CAD: C$1.1010($374mn), C$1.1025($216mn), C$1.1100($247mn)

U.S. stock futures fell slightly as data showed an unexpected drop in jobless claims and companies began reporting quarterly earnings.

Global markets:

Nikkei 15,478.93 -117.05 -0.75%

Hang Seng 23,534.53 +271.20 +1.17%

Shanghai Composite 2,389.37 +6.58 +0.28%

FTSE 6,459.41 -22.83 -0.35%

CAC 4,155.17 -12.95 -0.31%

DAX 9,020.54 +25.21 +0.28%

Crude oil $86.83 (-0.54%)

Gold $1228.30 (+1.85%)

(company / ticker / price / change, % / volume)

Upgrades:

Apple (AAPL) upgraded from Perform to Outperform at Oppenheimer, target $115

Downgrades:

Other:

DuPont (DD) initiated at Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts, target $71

Microsoft (MSFT) initiated at Market Perform at BMO Capital Markets, target $48

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said in New York on Wednesday that Japan's economy will benefit if the BoJ pushes up inflation to its target of 2%. He also said that many tools for additional easing.

Kuroda reiterated that central bank will make adjustments if needed to achieve 2% inflation target.

The BoJ governor thinks that Japan's economy will bounce back in the autumn. Kuroda added that the country's economy will continue to recover moderately.

The Bank of England (BoE) released its interest rate decision. The BoE kept its interest rates unchanged at 0.5% and its asset purchase program unchanged at £375 billion.

Investors are awaiting the minutes of the monetary policy committee (MPC). The minutes of the meeting will be released on October 22.

Two MPC members voted in September for the second consecutive month to raise interest rates to 0.75% from 0.5%.

Economic calendar (GMT0):

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)

00:30 Australia Unemployment rate September 6.0% Revised From 6.1% 6.2% 6.1%

00:30 Australia Changing the number of employed September +32.1 Revised From +121.0 -29.6 -29.7

06:00 Germany Current Account August 20.1 Revised From 21.7 10.3

06:00 Germany Trade Balance August 22.2 18.4 17.5

06:00 Japan Prelim Machine Tool Orders, y/y September +35.5% +34.8%

06:45 France Trade Balance, bln August -5.5 -5.7 -5.8

08:00 Eurozone ECB Monthly Report

11:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%

11:00 United Kingdom Asset Purchase Facility 375 375 375

11:00 United Kingdom MPC Rate Statement

The U.S. dollar traded mixed to lower against the most major currencies. The Fed's minutes still weighed on the greenback. The Fed released its minutes from the latest meeting yesterday. A tone of the Fed's minutes was dovish.

Some FOMC member expressed concern about the global slowdown and about the impact of a stronger U.S. dollar.

Most FOMC members said that interest rate hike will depend on depend on data and not a calendar date.

The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. is expected to rise by 4,000 to 291,000.

The euro traded mixed against the U.S. dollar after the disappointing economic data from Germany and France. Germany's trade surplus fell to €17.5 billion in August from €22.2 billion in July, missing expectations for a decline to €18.4 billion.

German exports dropped 5.8% in August. That was the biggest decline since January 2009.

France's trade deficit widened to €5.8 billion in August from €5.5 billion in July, missing expectations for an increase to €5.7 billion.

The British pound traded higher against the U.S. dollar after the Bank of England's interest rate decision. The Bank of England kept its interest rates unchanged at 0.5% and its asset purchase program unchanged at £375 billion.

The Canadian dollar traded mixed ahead of the Canadian new housing price index. New housing price index is expected to climb 0.2% in August, after a flat reading in July.

EUR/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

GBP/USD: the currency pair rose to $1.6225

USD/JPY: the currency pair fell to Y107.52

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

12:30 Canada New Housing Price Index August 0.0% +0.2%

12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims September 287 291

15:00 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks

23:50 Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

23:50 Japan Tertiary Industry Index August 0.0% +0.2%

EUR/USD

Offers $1.2820-25, $1.2800/10

Bids $1.2700, $1.2685/80, $1.2625/15, $1.2500

GBP/USD

Offers $1.6365/70, $1.6320-25, $1.6300

Bids $1.6050

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9000, $0.8945/50, $0.8900

Bids $0.8820, $0.8750

EUR/JPY

Offers Y138.50, Y138.20, Y138.00, Y137.85/90

Bids Y137.20, Y137.00, Y136.50, Y136.00

USD/JPY

Offers Y109.50, Y108.90/00, Y108.75/80, Y108.50, Y108.00

Bids Y107.50, Y107.00, Y106.85/80

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.7980, stg0.7900

Bids stg0.7840/30

Stock indices traded higher on speculation the Fed's interest rate will remain unchanged for a longer period. The Fed released its minutes from the latest meeting on Wednesday. A tone of the Fed's minutes was dovish.

Some FOMC member expressed concern about the global slowdown and about the impact of a stronger U.S. dollar. Policymakers were concerned that a stronger U.S. dollar might slow the rise in inflation toward the Fed's inflation target of 2%.

Most FOMC members said that interest rate hike will depend on depend on data and not a calendar date.

The Fed minutes could lead to the opinion that the Fed's interest rate will remain low for a longer period.

Germany's trade surplus fell to €17.5 billion in August from €22.2 billion in July, missing expectations for a decline to €18.4 billion.

German exports dropped 5.8% in August. That was the biggest decline since January 2009.

France's trade deficit widened to €5.8 billion in August from €5.5 billion in July, missing expectations for an increase to €5.7 billion.

Current figures:

Name Price Change Change %

FTSE 6,497.06 +14.82 +0.23%

DAX 9,074.17 +78.84 +0.88%

CAC 40 4,169.12 +1.00 +0.02%

The Fed released its minutes from the latest meeting on Wednesday. A tone of the Fed's minutes was dovish.

Some FOMC member expressed concern about the global slowdown and about the impact of a stronger U.S. dollar. Policymakers were concerned that a stronger U.S. dollar might slow the rise in inflation toward the Fed's inflation target of 2%.

Most FOMC members said that interest rate hike will depend on depend on data and not a calendar date.

The minutes said that "considerable time" could be misunderstood as a commitment.

The Fed minutes could lead to the opinion that the Fed's interest rate will remain low for a longer period.

Most Asian stock indices closed higher due to the Fed's minutes. The Fed released its minutes from the latest meeting. A tone of the Fed's minutes was dovish.

Some FOMC member expressed concern about the global slowdown and about the impact of a stronger U.S. dollar.

Most FOMC members said that interest rate hike will depend on depend on data and not a calendar date.

Japanese stock index fell due to a stronger yen. The yen strengthened after the release of the Fed's minutes.

Japan's core machinery orders increased 4.7% in September, exceeding expectations for a 1.1% gain, after a 3.5% rise in August.

On a yearly basis, Japan's core machinery orders fell 3.3% in September, beating expectations for a 5.1% decrease, after a 1.1% gain in August.

Japan's preliminary machine tool orders decreased to 34.8% in September from 35.5% in August.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said in New York on Wednesday that Japan's economy will benefit if the BoJ pushes up inflation to its target of 2%. He also said that many tools for additional easing.

Indexes on the close:

Nikkei 225 15,478.93 -117.05 -0.75%

Hang Seng 23,534.53 +271.20 +1.17%

Shanghai Composite 2,389.37 +6.58 +0.28%

EUR/USD: $1.2600(E483mn), $1.2675(E258mn), $1.2700(E865mn), $1.2715-25(E1.6bn)

USD/JPY: Y107.50(Y3.0bn), Y107.75-85($650mn), Y108.00($343mn), Y108.60($833mn), Y109.00($1.25bn)

EUR/JPY: Y137.35-40(E300mn)

GBP/USD: $1.6300(stg301mn)

EUR/GBP: Stg0.7750(E170mn)

AUD/USD: $0.8750(A$683mn)

USD/CAD: C$1.1010($374mn), C$1.1025($216mn), C$1.1100($247mn)

Economic calendar (GMT0):

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)

00:30 Australia Unemployment rate September 6.0% Revised From 6.1% 6.2% 6.1%

00:30 Australia Changing the number of employed September +32.1 Revised From +121.0 -29.6 -29.7

06:00 Germany Current Account August 20.1 Revised From 21.7 10.3

06:00 Germany Trade Balance August 22.2 18.4 17.5

06:00 Japan Prelim Machine Tool Orders, y/y September +35.5% +34.8%

06:45 France Trade Balance, bln August -5.5 -5.7 -5.8

08:00 Eurozone ECB Monthly Report

The U.S. dollar traded lower against the most major currencies as Fed's minutes weighed on the greenback. The Fed released its minutes from the latest meeting. A tone of the Fed's minutes was dovish.

Some FOMC member expressed concern about the global slowdown and about the impact of a stronger U.S. dollar.

Most FOMC members said that interest rate hike will depend on depend on data and not a calendar date.

The New Zealand dollar increased against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports from New Zealand.

The Australian dollar rose against the U.S. dollar despite weak labour market data from Australia. The unemployment rate rose to 6.1% in September from 6.0% in August, beating expectations for an increase to 6.2%. August's figure was revised from 6.1%.

The number of employed people in Australia declined by 29,700 in September, missing expectations for a decrease by 29,600, after a rise by 32,100 in August. August's figure was revised down from an increase by 121,000.

The Japanese yen climbed against the U.S. dollar. Japan's core machinery orders increased 4.7% in September, exceeding expectations for a 1.1% gain, after a 3.5% rise in August.

On a yearly basis, Japan's core machinery orders fell 3.3% in September, beating expectations for a 5.1% decrease, after a 1.1% gain in August.

Japan's preliminary machine tool orders decreased to 34.8% in September from 35.5% in August.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said in New York on Wednesday that Japan's economy will benefit if the BoJ pushes up inflation to its target of 2%. He also said that many tools for additional easing.

EUR/USD: the currency pair rose to $1.2759

GBP/USD: the currency pair increased to $1.6196

USD/JPY: the currency pair climbed to Y107.79

AUD/USD: the currency pair increased to $0.8884

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

11:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50%

11:00 United Kingdom Asset Purchase Facility 375 375

11:00 United Kingdom MPC Rate Statement

12:30 Canada New Housing Price Index August 0.0% +0.2%

12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims September 287 291

15:00 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks

23:50 Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

23:50 Japan Tertiary Industry Index August 0.0% +0.2%

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the labour market data today. The unemployment rate rose to 6.1% in September from 6.0% in August, beating expectations for an increase to 6.2%. August's figure was revised from 6.1%.

The number of employed people in Australia declined by 29,700 in September, missing expectations for a decrease by 29,600, after a rise by 32,100 in August. August's figure was revised down from an increase by 121,000.

The participation rate declined to 64.5% in September from a downwardly revised 64.7% in August.

The ABS said on Wednesday that there were problems with its July and August employment data and it would revise its July and August jobs data.

The ABS removed the adjustment for July and August jobs data.

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2852 (2819)

$1.2810 (1555)

$1.2781 (1645)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.2747

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2715 (1652)

$1.2679 (1145)

$1.2636 (1862)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date November, 7 is 50653 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2900 (5966);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date November, 7 is 49722 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2400 (4871);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.98 versus 0.96 from the previous trading day according to data from October, 8

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.6403 (1242)

$1.6306 (1183)

$1.6210 (1829)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.6181

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.6090 (844)

$1.5994 (2045)

$1.5896 (1019)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date November, 7 is 22464 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6200 (1829);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date November, 7 is 29115 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,5400 (2211);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.29 versus 1.27 from the previous trading day according to data from October, 8

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.