CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 09-09-2020

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09.09.2020
23:50
Japan: Core Machinery Orders, y/y, July -16.2% (forecast -18.3%)
23:50
Japan: Core Machinery Orders, July 6.3% (forecast 1.9%)
19:50
Schedule for tomorrow, Thursday, September 10, 2020
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
01:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation September 3.3%  
06:45 France Industrial Production, m/m July 12.7% 5%
11:45 Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision 0% 0%
12:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims August 13254 12925
12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims September 881 846
12:30 U.S. PPI, y/y August -0.4% -0.3%
12:30 U.S. PPI, m/m August 0.6% 0.2%
12:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y August 0.3% 0.3%
12:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, m/m August 0.5% 0.2%
12:30 Eurozone ECB Press Conference    
14:00 U.S. Wholesale Inventories July -1.3% -0.1%
15:00 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories September -9.362 -1.075
16:30 Canada BOC Gov Tiff Macklem Speaks    
17:00 Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks    
22:30 New Zealand Business NZ PMI August 58.8  
22:45 New Zealand Food Prices Index, y/y August 4.2%  
23:50 Japan BSI Manufacturing Index Quarter III -52.3  
19:01
DJIA +2.40% 28,162.12 +661.23 Nasdaq +3.01% 11,174.17 +326.48 S&P +2.58% 3,417.65 +85.81
16:00
European stocks closed: FTSE 100 6,012.84 +82.54 +1.39% DAX 13,237.21 +268.88 +2.07% CAC 40 5,042.98 +69.46 +1.40%
15:00
Scope for USD rally extension in the short-term - MUFG

FXStreet reports that analysts at MUFG Bank note that there are some factors that could see a correction that began in big tech extend to the broader market, providing reason for further USD gains and with it JPY too.

"There is increasing evidence that the gap between the Republicans and the Democrats on agreeing a new stimulus package appears to be widening. A ‘Skinny’ stimulus package was introduced in the Senate by Mitch McConnell yesterday that included unemployment support of $300, a 50% cut. The bill also cuts the provision of $200B of funding to the Fed for its lending program and has no direct payments of cheques to US households. The package in total is worth $500B, way lower than the Democrats original $3trn package. So it’s either no stimulus or a very very modest stimulus boost.” 

“The polling for the election in November continues to tighten and this will inevitably lead to fears of a close election result that in turn could lead to a pronounced period of uncertainty immediately after the election with no result for days, possibly weeks. The longer polls show this, the greater the prospect of the markets taking fright.”

“We have news this morning that AstraZeneca has halted its vaccine trial after a recipient of the drug became ill. At the very least this is likely to delay the trial, at worst it could lead to failure. This is the first piece of bad news we can recall for some time on vaccines and hence is a clear downside for risk over the short-term.” 

14:35
U.S. job openings climb 10.3 percent in July; hires tumble 17.0 percent

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) published by the Labor Department on Wednesday revealed a 10.3 percent m-o-m climb in the U.S. job openings in July after a revised 11.7 percent m-o-m surge in June (originally a 9.6 percent m-o-m jump).

According to the report, employers posted 6.618 million job openings in July compared to the June figure of 6.001 million (revised from 5.889 million in the original estimate) and economists’ expectations of 6.000 million. The job openings rate was 4.5 percent in July, up from an upwardly revised 4.2 percent in the prior month. The report showed that Job openings rose in a number of industries, with the largest gains in retail trade (+172,000 jobs), health care and social assistance (+146,000), and construction (+90,000).

Meanwhile, the number of hires tumbled by 17.0 percent m-o-m to 5.787 million in July from a revised 6.970 million in June. The hiring rate decreased to 4.1 percent in July from a revised 5.1 percent in June. The hires level declined in a number of industries, with the largest fall in accommodation and food services (-599,000), followed by other services (-143,000), and health care and social assistance (-137,000). At the same time, hires increased in federal government (+33,000), largely because of Census hiring, as well as in real estate and rental and leasing (+26,000).

The separation rate in July was 5.007 million or 3.6 percent, compared to 4.899 million or 3.6 percent in June. Within separations, the quits rate was 2.1 percent (+0.2 pp m-o-m), and the layoffs rate was 1.2 percent (-0.2 pp m-o-m).

The changes in the labor market reflected an ongoing resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it, the report noted.

14:18
BoC leaves its benchmark interest rates at 0.25% and QE program at $5 billion per week

The Bank of Canada (BoC) maintained its benchmark interest rates unchanged at 0.25 percent on Wednesday, as widely expected. It also left its quantitative easing (QE) program at $5 billion per week.

In its policy statement, the Canadian central bank noted:

  • Both the global and Canadian economies are evolving broadly in line with the scenario in July Monetary Policy Report (MPR);
  • Bank continues to expect this strong reopening phase to be followed by protracted and uneven recuperation phase, which will be heavily reliant on policy support; the pace of the recovery remains highly dependent on path of COVID-19 pandemic and evolution of social distancing measures;
  • Canada's real GDP fell by 11.5 percent (39 percent annualized) in Q2, resulting in decline of just over 13 percent in H1, largely in line with Bank’s July MPR central scenario;
  • Bounce-back in activity in Q3 looks to be faster than anticipated in July;
  • The Bank continues to expect recuperation phase to be slow and choppy as the economy copes with ongoing uncertainty and structural challenges;
  • CPI inflation is close to zero, with downward pressure from energy prices and travel services, and is expected to remain well below target in the near term
  • As the economy moves from reopening to recuperation, it will continue to require extraordinary monetary policy support;
  • Governing Council will hold the policy interest rate at effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that 2-percent inflation target is sustainably achieved;
  • QE program will continue until the recovery is well underway and will be calibrated to provide the monetary policy stimulus needed to support the recovery and achieve the inflation objective.

14:01
ECB's forecasts due on Thursday are said to show that some policymakers of ECB “have become more confident in their economic forecasts” - Bloomberg reports, citing sources familiar with the matter
14:00
Canada: Bank of Canada Rate, 0.25 (forecast 0.25%)
14:00
U.S.: JOLTs Job Openings, July 6.618 m (forecast 6)
13:47
EU will not seek to suspend Brexit talks over new UK internal market bill - Reuters reports, citing sources
13:36
Canada’s housing starts unexpectedly rise in August

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) reported on Wednesday the seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts was at 262,396 units in August, up 6.9 percent from a downwardly revised 245,425 units in July (originally 245,604 units). This was the highest reading since September 2007.

Economists had forecast an annual pace of 220,000 for August.

According to the report, urban starts rose 7.1 percent m-o-m last month to 248,154 units, as multiple urban starts jumped by 9.1 percent m-o-m to 201,214 units, while single-detached urban starts dropped by 1.0 percent m-o-m 46,940 units. At the same time, rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 14,242 units.

13:33
U.S. Stocks open: Dow +1.00%, Nasdaq +1.84%, S&P +1.34%
13:17
Before the bell: S&P futures +0.88%, NASDAQ futures +1.42%

U.S. stock-index futures surged on Wednesday, as investors bought up technology stocks that were battered in the previous three sessions.


Global Stocks:

Index/commodity

Last

Today's Change, points

Today's Change, %

Nikkei

23,032.54

-241.59

-1.04%

Hang Seng

24,468.93

-155.41

-0.63%

Shanghai

3,254.63

-61.79

-1.86%

S&P/ASX

5,878.60

-129.20

-2.15%

FTSE

5,992.64

+62.34

+1.05%

CAC

5,016.90

+43.38

+0.87%

DAX

13,127.78

+159.45

+1.23%

Crude oil

$37.59


+2.26%

Gold

$1,941.60


-0.08%

12:52
Wall Street. Stocks before the bell

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)


3M Co

MMM

165

1.83(1.12%)

1060

ALCOA INC.

AA

14.38

0.15(1.05%)

4128

ALTRIA GROUP INC.

MO

43.25

0.18(0.42%)

22702

Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ

AMZN

3,189.99

40.15(1.27%)

76956

American Express Co

AXP

104.3

0.63(0.61%)

3915

AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP

AIG

29.06

0.17(0.59%)

753

Apple Inc.

AAPL

116.1

3.28(2.91%)

3386203

AT&T Inc

T

29.61

0.10(0.34%)

54151

Boeing Co

BA

162.15

1.07(0.66%)

204978

Caterpillar Inc

CAT

149.8

1.28(0.86%)

3876

Chevron Corp

CVX

79.45

0.48(0.61%)

9933

Cisco Systems Inc

CSCO

39.9

-0.10(-0.25%)

106288

Citigroup Inc., NYSE

C

51.41

0.37(0.72%)

543034

E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Co

DD

56.79

-0.03(-0.05%)

421

Exxon Mobil Corp

XOM

38.41

0.23(0.60%)

100262

Facebook, Inc.

FB

274.46

3.30(1.22%)

130209

FedEx Corporation, NYSE

FDX

225.47

4.42(2.00%)

11422

Ford Motor Co.

F

7.08

0.05(0.71%)

119288

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE

FCX

15.83

0.11(0.70%)

31391

General Electric Co

GE

6.21

0.07(1.14%)

566700

General Motors Company, NYSE

GM

32.5

0.12(0.37%)

163252

Goldman Sachs

GS

203.71

1.23(0.61%)

6414

Google Inc.

GOOG

1,556.00

23.61(1.54%)

10308

Hewlett-Packard Co.

HPQ

19.54

0.09(0.46%)

2735

Home Depot Inc

HD

271.7

2.44(0.91%)

33424

HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC.

HON

164.85

0.58(0.35%)

1541

Intel Corp

INTC

49.35

0.44(0.90%)

174912

International Business Machines Co...

IBM

122.2

0.99(0.82%)

4326

International Paper Company

IP

37.5

0.19(0.51%)

941

Johnson & Johnson

JNJ

148.21

0.95(0.65%)

24624

JPMorgan Chase and Co

JPM

100.78

0.86(0.86%)

216941

McDonald's Corp

MCD

215.59

2.01(0.94%)

2028

Merck & Co Inc

MRK

83.81

0.48(0.58%)

13156

Microsoft Corp

MSFT

206.22

3.56(1.76%)

455821

Nike

NKE

113.14

0.42(0.37%)

9110

Pfizer Inc

PFE

36.48

0.55(1.53%)

836630

Procter & Gamble Co

PG

136.5

0.56(0.41%)

1419

Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ

SBUX

85.98

0.57(0.67%)

15989

Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ

TSLA

351.36

21.15(6.41%)

3177265

The Coca-Cola Co

KO

49.93

0.12(0.24%)

17875

Travelers Companies Inc

TRV

113.42

0.53(0.47%)

566

Twitter, Inc., NYSE

TWTR

38.75

0.56(1.47%)

45826

UnitedHealth Group Inc

UNH

309.5

2.25(0.73%)

2279

Verizon Communications Inc

VZ

60.2

0.24(0.40%)

12379

Visa

V

202.55

2.43(1.21%)

152748

Wal-Mart Stores Inc

WMT

139.7

1.25(0.90%)

36925

Walt Disney Co

DIS

133.46

-0.74(-0.55%)

23532

Yandex N.V., NASDAQ

YNDX

62.02

0.89(1.46%)

94233

12:50
European Council president Michel: Breaking the international law is not acceptable and does not create confidence we need to build our future relationship

  • Brexit Withdrawal Agreement was concluded and ratified by both EU and UK and it has to be applied in full

12:47
Target price changes before the market open

General Motors (GM) target raised to $37 from $35 at JP Morgan

12:28
S&P 500 Index: Deeper corrective setback to test support at 3280/60 - Credit Suisse

FXStreet notes that the S&P 500 has gapped lower, reinforcing its rejection from the upper end of its “typical” extreme and the Credit Suisse analyst team continue to look for a deeper corrective setback to test support at 3280/60.

“Whilst 3378/80 caps the immediate risk is seen lower with support below 3326 seen at 3307/03 ahead of our ‘ideal’ objective of what we continue to look to be better support at 3280/59 where we will look for a floor – the 38.2% retracement of the rally from mid-May, 23.6% retracement of the entire rally from March, July high and 63-day average. Failure to hold 3260/59 can expose the 200-day average at 3094.”

12:17
Canada: Housing Starts, August 262.4 (forecast 220)
11:57
European Commission Vice-President Šefčovič: We made it clear that Brexit withdrawal agreement is not open for renegotiation
  • Still expects Brexit withdrawal agreement to be fully respected
  • Says that best course of action is to call as quickly as possible extraordinary meeting to get reassurances needed following UK legislation
11:50
U.S. weekly mortgage applications increase 2.9 percent

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported on Wednesday the mortgage application volume in the U.S. rose 2.9 percent in the week ended September 4, following a 2.0 percent decrease in the previous week. That was the first weekly increase since the week ended August 7.

According to the report, refinance applications jumped 3.0 percent, while applications to purchase a home grew 2.6 percent.

Meanwhile, the average fixed 30-year mortgage rate edged down to 3.07 percent from 3.08 percent.

“There continues to be resiliency in the purchase market,” noted Joel Kan, an MBA economist. “The average loan size continued to increase, hitting a survey high at $368,600. Highlighting the strong overall demand for buying a home, conventional, VA and FHA purchase applications all increased last week.”

11:43
UK's Internal Markets Bill acknowledges that some powers conferred by it may be inconsistent with international law - Reuters reports, citing a copy of new legislation

  • Ministers may make provision about the application of exit procedures to goods, or a description of goods, when moving from Northern Ireland to Great Britain
  • Ministers can take into account the need for Northern Ireland goods to enjoy unfettered access to the rest of the UK when exercising this power
  • Certain provisions have effect notwithstanding inconsistency or incompatibility with international or other domestic law

11:34
European session review: GBP depreciates further ahead of the publication of UK internal market bill
TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
05:45SwitzerlandUnemployment Rate (non s.a.)August3.2%3.3%3.3%
06:00JapanPrelim Machine Tool Orders, y/y August-31.1% -23.3%


GBP continued to depreciate against its major counterparts in the European session on Wednesday, as investors were awaiting the introduction of the internal market bill by the UK government later today. It is expected that the new legislation, which sets out trading arrangements across the UK after the Brexit transition period, which ends on December 31, 2020, might derail the country’s trade talks with the European Union (EU) as it is feared that it will override key parts of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement, particularly the Northern Ireland protocol.

Reports about the introduction of the new bill caused friction between the UK and the EU. The EU warned of a no-trade deal if the UK tried to alter the Brexit deal. Meanwhile, the UK’s Northern Ireland minister Brandon Lewis said yesterday that the new bill would “break international law in a very specific and limited way”. Germany’s economy minister Altmaier stressed today that the Brexit agreement can be reached mostly on the goodwill of both sides. He also added that Brexit negotiations should not be burdened by the agreements being unilaterally changed by the UK’s government. 

In addition, investors had to contend with the reports that AstraZeneca/Oxford COVID-19 vaccine candidate trial had been put on, following a suspected serious adverse reaction in a trial participant in the UK.

11:04
Brent Oil resumes its core bear trend - Credit Suisse

FXStreet notes that Brent Crude Oil below $41.38/32 has completed a bear “wedge”. Strategists at Credit Suisse expect the black gold to suffer further falls with a critical area identified at the recent May/June gap of $37.18/35.37.

“Brent Crude has failed to break through its 200-day average at $45.10 and has now confirmed a bear ‘wedge’ pattern as it dropped below $41.38/32, hence turning the risks significantly lower on a 1-3 month investment horizon. Next key supports can be identified at $37.18/35.37, the recent May/June gap, before the 38.2% retracement of the whole April/September upmove at $34.87/33.54.”

10:48
GBP/USD: A top sees the risk turn lower with support at 1.2912/02 - Credit Suisse

FXStreet notes that GBP/USD has seen an aggressive fall after confirming a top as expected below 1.3054 to mark a more important turn lower. Analysts at Credit Suisse see support initially at the 55-day average at 1.2912/02, then the potential uptrend from March at 1.2857.

“GBP/USD has extended its rejection from just ahead of the key high of 2019 at 1.3514 for a break as suspected below key price and “neckline” support at 1.3078/54 and this sees a top confirmed to mark a more important turn lower, reinforced by the completion of an RSI momentum top also and DeMark exhaustion signals.” 

“We see support next at the 55-day average 1.2912/02, which we would look to hold at first for a rebound. We look for this to be followed by a break in due course though with support then seen next at the potential uptrend from March at 1.2857, then the June high at 1.2813.”

“Bigger picture, we see scope for a test of a cluster of supports in the 1.2740/1.2691 zone, which includes the 200 - day average and 38.2% retracement of the entire March/September rally. We note though the ‘measured top objective’ is seen set lower at 1.2655.”

10:19
Germany’s economy minister Altmaier: Brexit negotiations should not be burdened by agreements being unilaterally changed by UK government

  • Brexit agreement can be reached mostly on the goodwill of both sides
  • We should use all possibilities for negotiation on Brexit

10:10
ECB's governing council member Muller: A timely exit from temporary emergency measures as the economy improves is just as important as decisive policy action during the crisis

  • This will minimize the risk of undesirable side effects of accommodative policy being kept in place for longer than necessary
  • Ultra-low rates have been around for longer than initially expected, so need to study the impact this may have on the financial sector, changes in real economy

09:58
French firms must prepare for risk of no-deal Brexit, says France's Riester

Reuters reports that French junior trade minister Franck Riester said on Wednesday French companies needed to prepare for the risks of a 'no-deal' Brexit.

"We need to be prepared," Riester told BFM Business radio.

"We need to make sure that our British partners respect their commitments," he added.

Britain will set out new details of its blueprint for life outside the European Union on Wednesday, publishing legislation a government minister acknowledged would break international law in a "limited way" and which could sour trade talks.

09:41
Gold to consolidate amid the long-term trend higher – Credit Suisse

FXStreet reports that strategists at Credit Suisse see the yellow metal consolidating above the $18877/37 level neighborhood where there is a cluster of supports.

“Gold continues its expected consolidation following the move to our base case objective of $2075/80. Whilst we continue to see the long-term trend higher, reinforced by falling US Real Yields and a falling USD, our immediate bias remains for further consolidation above a cluster of supports at $1887/37, which includes the 23.6% retracement of the rally from the 2018 low. Should weakness extend, we would see scope for a deeper setback to $1765, potentially $1726.”

“We look for an eventual move above $2075 with resistance seen next at $2175, then $2300. Whilst we would look for a fresh consolidation at this latter level, a direct break can see potential trend resistance at $2417, with scope seen for $2700/20 over the longer-term.”

09:25
Ireland's Varadkar says 'kamikaze' British threat to break law has backfired

Reuters reports that Ireland’s deputy prime minister Leo Varadkar said that a “kamikaze” threat by a British minister to break international law in the implementation of its EU divorce treaty has backfired, but a trade deal is still possible.

The British government’s Northern Ireland minister Brandon Lewis on Tuesday said Britain could break international law - in a “limited way” in legislation related to the implementation of its Withdrawal Agreement divorce treaty signed with the EU in January.

“These were really extraordinary comments, and certainly set off alarm bells in Dublin. I think they have backfired,” Varadkar told RTE radio.

“Certainly, the strategy and behaviour of the British government was one of brinkmanship, was one of threatening to crash out, you know, if you don’t, if we don’t get to an agreement we might go kamikaze on you, that sort of thing,” Varadkar said.

“The most benign assessment I can give you is that this is brinkmanship that this is sabre rattling,” he said.

Varadkar said there could not be a free trade agreement with the EU in “circumstances where the UK government is not honouring the withdrawal agreement”, but said he thought Britain ultimately wanted a compromise.

09:02
EUR/USD to rise towards 1.21 by end-2020 – Westpac

FXStreet reports that immediate economic recovery in the US is stronger than Europe but from 2021, Europe should begin to catch up on fiscal aid and trade. The euro should rise over the period as a result with EUR/USD set to reach the 1.21 by year-end, per Westpac.

“The revisions to our growth forecasts for the US and Euro Area this month highlight that momentum has accelerated more quickly in the US. A month ago we forecast 2020 year-average growth of -6.8% for the US. Now that forecast sits at -4.7%. Our comparable forecast for the Euro Area has been revised more modestly, from -8.5% to -7.6%.” 

“The foundation for sustained fiscal stimulus in the Euro Area is stronger than the US, and the incidence of COVID-19 still materially lower in Europe. Further, the Euro Area has to be expected to benefit more from a global recovery in investment and consumption given the strength and breadth of their export sector. For these reasons, 2021 growth for the Euro Area has been revised up more meaningfully than in the US, to 5.4% and 3.4% respectively.”

“We have to expect that the euro will not only take back ground lost recently, but also extend these gains as the global recovery builds. Our central expectation is that EUR/USD will rise from 1.18 currently to 1.21 at the end of 2020 and then to 1.25 in late-2021, a level that should prove sustainable in 2022.” 

08:41
U.S. firms in China increasingly fear bilateral tensions will last for years - survey

Reuters reports that U.S. companies in China are increasingly fretful that trade tensions between the world's two biggest economies will drag out over years and nearly a third said their ability to retain staff had been affected, a survey showed.

Half of the firms said they believe soured ties will last at least three years, up sharply from 30% in 2019, according to an annual business sentiment survey conducted by the American Chamber Commerce in Shanghai and consultancy PwC China.

Of those, 27% said they believe tensions will last indefinitely, compared with just 13% last year.

"U.S.-China tension is the top concern for the American business community here," Ker Gibbs, president of the business chamber, said at an event to mark the release of the report.

"This Beijing, Washington dialogue, they need to work this out, because it's having an impact on business performance here."

08:21
Morgan Stanley says U.S. vote result delay may boost treasuries

Bloomberg reports that it’s possible the winner of the U.S. presidential vote won’t be known for some time after election day, which means investors should plan for potential uncertainty, according to Morgan Stanley.

Voting-by-mail will probably turn what’s usually an “election night” into at least an “election week,” if not a month or longer, strategists led by Michael Zezas and Ariana Salvatore wrote in a note. That lack of clarity on Nov. 3 gives investors an opportunity to hedge, with potential flights to quality in focus, they said.

“Before election results appear with certainty, we expect risk appetite to be low among investors, which will likely keep a bid for U.S. Treasuries,” Zezas and Salvatore said.

“The more time it takes to get a result with certainty, the flight-to-quality bid could increase,” they added, as the “longer it takes to get the result, it increases the probability that the results are close, which could then signal that we’re headed toward a divided government outcome,” with the potential for tighter fiscal policy.

07:59
USD/CNY seen at 6.50 by end-2021 – Westpac

FXStreet reports that the Renminbi has performed strongly over the past month. Renminbi's gains highlight the regions' promise, with USD/CNY forecast at 6.50 by end-2021, per Westpac.

“We now expect China's economy to grow by 2.5% in 2020 in year-average terms, and for this gain to be followed by a 10.5% rise in 2021. To this view for growth, there are downside risks related to US/China trade tensions. But equally there are upside risks associated with export opportunities in the Asian region and, for as long as COVID-19 persists globally, an internalisation of services demand within China's borders.”

“The risks around our USD/CNY 6.85 end-2020, 6.50 end-2021 and 6.40 mid-2022 forecasts are broadly balanced, albeit with a higher likelihood of volatility near-term.”

07:40
UK firms, worried about pandemic and Brexit, hire temp workers

Reuters reports that british firms hired temporary staff in August at the fastest pace since the end of 2018 as they tried to recover from the COVID-19 lockdown but remained wary of the pandemic and the Brexit impasse, a recruiters industry group said.

There was also a jump in the availability of candidates which rose at the second-steepest rate in over 20 years, reflecting redundancies announced by many companies in Britain.

Billings from temporary hirings rose for the first time in seven months, the Recruitment & Employment Confederation and accountants KPMG said on Wednesday.

Employers typically rely on temporary workers at times of economic uncertainty.

There was also a rise in billings from companies hiring permanent workers in August but the increase was worryingly small, the REC said.

"It reflects the uncertainty businesses face about what will happen over coming months with the pandemic and Brexit," Neil Carberry, the chief executive of the REC, said.

07:23
AUD/NZD to move higher above the 1.11 level – Credit Suisse

FXStreet reports that analysts at Credit Suisse expect a AUD/NZD move back to the 1.1044 recent high before testing the 1.1121 resistance where AUD/NZD may take a breather. 

“AUD/NZD is moving higher after essentially holding above the ‘neckline’ to the recently completed in-range base above 1.0866/81. We look for a fresh move higher from here, with the recent high seen at 1.1044, just shy of trend resistance and downtrend from 2015 at 1.1121. We expect this to be a tougher barrier to break, however a move beyond here would see a fresh test of the 2018 high at 1.1175.” 

“Only above the 1.1291 and 1.1430 highs would set a longer term base to suggest a more meaningful turn higher, which is some way off for now.” 

07:03
Asian session review: the dollar rose slightly against most major currencies

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
01:30ChinaPPI y/yAugust-2.4%-2%-2%
01:30ChinaCPI y/yAugust2.7%2.4%2.4%
05:45SwitzerlandUnemployment Rate (non s.a.)August3.2%3.3%3.3%
06:00JapanPrelim Machine Tool Orders, y/y August-31.1% -23.3%


The ICE index, which tracks the dynamics of the US dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona), rose by 0.14%.In today's Asian trading, the US dollar rose against the euro and the pound, but declined against the yen.

Traders ' attention is focused on the upcoming ECB meeting, as its results may seriously affect the dynamics of the euro. Statements by the ECB's chief economist, Philip Lane, last week triggered a fall in the euro from the highest level in more than two years at $1.2, and experts will closely monitor the Central Bank's rhetoric for its concern about the recent strengthening of the Euro.

Meanwhile, the yen is strengthening against the world's major currencies amid rising tensions between Beijing and Washington. According to media reports, the US authorities are preparing to impose restrictions on imports of a number of goods from the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region of China, while Beijing may impose sanctions against us officials visiting Taiwan.

Earlier this week, US President Donald Trump said that he intends to sever ties between the US economy and China if he is re-elected as President.

Meanwhile, data showed that China's inflation slowed to its lowest level since May in August, as food prices declined. Consumer prices increased 2.4% year-on-year last month after rising 2.7% in July, according to data from the state statistical office of China.

06:39
CAD: BoC likely uneventful; staying long USD/CAD - Credit Agricole

eFXdata reports that Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses its expectations for BoC policy meeting.

"The BoC meeting could prove less eventful in comparison to the ECB as we expect the bank to leave its policy parameters unchanged and to make few adjustments to its policy outlook given that the Canadian economy has evolved largely as expected. Where there is potential for CAD volatility around the BoC meeting is if the central bank hints at any changes to its policy making structures following the Fed’s move to AIT," CACIB notes. 

"Risk sentiment is also a strong driver of USD/CAD at the moment and the ongoing weakness in technology stocks risks generating a broader reduction in risk, which would be positive for the trade," CACIB adds. 

06:30
Options levels on wednesday, September 9, 2020 EURUSD GBPUSD

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1936 (2428)

$1.1909 (649)

$1.1886 (151)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1771

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1720 (428)

$1.1697 (2856)

$1.1671 (2138)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date September, 4 is 57585 contracts (according to data from September, 8) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1700 (4427);


GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3241 (510)

$1.3182 (235)

$1.3135 (640)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2937

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2864 (623)

$1.2839 (707)

$1.2811 (832)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date September, 4 is 11542 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (1155);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date September, 4 is 12398 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (2621);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.07 versus 1.15 from the previous trading day according to data from September, 8

 

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

06:20
Switzerland's unemployment rate rose in August, as expected

According to the report from State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), at the end of August 2020, 151 111 unemployed persons were registered with the Regional Employment Service Centres, 2 241 more than in the previous month. The unemployment rate thus rose from 3.2% in July 2020 to 3.3% in the reference month. Compared with the same month of the previous year, unemployment rose by 51,559 people (+51.8%).

Youth unemployment (15 - to 24-year-olds) rose by 2,446 people (+13.7%) to 20,341. Compared with the same month of the previous year, this corresponds to an increase of 7,199 people (+54.8%).

A total of 237 215 job seekers were registered, 1 453 more than in the previous month. Compared to the same period of the previous year, this number increased by 67,366 persons (+39.7%).

In June 2020 488 312 people were affected by short-time work, 402 578 fewer people (-45,2%) than in the previous month. The number of affected farms decreased by 57 583 units (-52,4%) to 52 405. The unusual work hours declined by 29 558 322 (-51,0%) on 28 374 970 hours. In the corresponding period of the previous year (June 2019), 59 550 hours of downtime had been registered, which had been spread over 1 507 persons in 84 establishments.

06:02
Japan: Prelim Machine Tool Orders, y/y , August -23.3%
06:01
China inflation slows, PPI falls at slower pace

RTTNews reports that China's inflation eased in August on slowing pork price growth and factory gate prices continued to decline, but the pace of drop slowed from the last year.

Consumer price inflation slowed to 2.4 percent in August from 2.7 percent in July, the National Bureau of Statistics revealed Wednesday. The rate came in line with expectations. On a monthly basis, consumer prices gained 0.4 percent.

Driven by slower growth in pork prices, food price inflation eased to 11.2 percent annually. Pork prices advanced 52.6 percent from last year, following an 85.7 percent rise in July.

Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, held steady at 0.5 percent in August.

Producer prices decreased at a pace of 2 percent on a yearly basis in August, as expected, following a 2.4 percent drop in the previous month, another report from the NBS revealed.

05:45
Switzerland: Unemployment Rate (non s.a.), August 3.3 (forecast 3.3%)
02:30
Commodities. Daily history for Tuesday, September 8, 2020
Raw materials Closed Change, %
Brent 39.48 -5.46
Silver 26.65 -0.63
Gold 1931.522 0.16
Palladium 2290.16 -0.15
01:30
China: PPI, August -2 (forecast -2%), y/y
01:30
China: CPI, August 2.4% (forecast 2.4%), y/y
00:30
Stocks. Daily history for Tuesday, September 8, 2020
Index Change, points Closed Change, %
NIKKEI 225 184.18 23274.13 0.8
Hang Seng 34.69 24624.34 0.14
KOSPI 17.69 2401.91 0.74
ASX 200 63 6007.8 1.06
FTSE 100 -7.1 5930.3 -0.12
DAX -131.95 12968.33 -1.01
CAC 40 -80.2 4973.52 -1.59
Dow Jones -632.42 27500.89 -2.25
S&P 500 -95.12 3331.84 -2.78
NASDAQ Composite -465.44 10847.69 -4.11
00:30
Schedule for today, Wednesday, September 9, 2020
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
01:30 China PPI y/y August -2.4% -2%
01:30 China CPI y/y August 2.7% 2.4%
05:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate (non s.a.) August 3.2% 3.3%
06:00 Japan Prelim Machine Tool Orders, y/y August -31.1%  
12:15 Canada Housing Starts August 245.6 220
14:00 U.S. JOLTs Job Openings July 5.889 6
14:00 Canada Bank of Canada Rate 0.25% 0.25%
23:50 Japan Core Machinery Orders, y/y July -22.5% -18.3%
23:50 Japan Core Machinery Orders July -7.6% 1.9%
00:15
Currencies. Daily history for Tuesday, September 8, 2020
Pare Closed Change, %
AUDUSD 0.72002 -1.02
EURJPY 124.727 -0.65
EURUSD 1.17715 -0.35
GBPJPY 137.455 -1.7
GBPUSD 1.29753 -1.4
NZDUSD 0.66096 -1.2
USDCAD 1.32392 1.1
USDCHF 0.91778 0.21
USDJPY 105.936 -0.3

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