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Dow +68.87 at 12707.61, Nasdaq +20.23 at 2847.79, S&P +7.88 at 1348.08

Stocks have moved incrementally higher to trade in line with earlier session highs. Even though the broader market is still in solid shape, bank stocks continue to trail. As such, the KBW Bank Index is down 0.4% for the session. Weakness in the banking space has weighed on the broader financial sector, which is still the only major sector in the red as it contends with a 0.1% loss.

June WTI gains extend to $5.56, contract trades to $102.74.
American focus:

The euro fell for a third day versus the dollar in the longest losing streak since February as Standard & Poor’s reduction in Greece’s credit rating renewed concern the region’s debt crisis is worsening.
Greece’s credit rating was cut to B from BB- by S&P, which said further reductions are possible, with private investors at risk if maturities are extended on the nation’s emergency-aid package. Another rating cut would make Greece the lowest-rated country in Europe as today’s move left it even with Belarus after the fourth reduction by S&P since April 2010.
“This downgrade is furthering the reality that we’re getting closer to the point of default,” said David Mann, regional head of research for the Americas at Standard Chartered in New York. “People may use this as a reason to take seriously that it could be a longer wait for a rate hike out of Europe, which would be euro-negative as well.”
The 17-nation currency rose earlier as a report showed exports in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, jumped in March, bolstering the case for higher interest rates in the euro region.

USD/CAD несет потери


Easing to C$0.9665 area now as risk-appetites improve slightly with the better tone of commodities and US stocks, this pair turning lower after stalling near C$0.9700 where offers are to be found. Flows muted in this pair and elsewhere, the "market still feels beaten up," one Toronto trader says. Bids expected C$0.9630/35.

Moody's places Greece on review for possible downgrade.

German newspaper says Fitch set to downgrade Greece to B in a few days.

Dow +9.23 at 12647.97, Nasdaq +4.32 at 2831.88, S&P +0.89 at 1341.09

The financial sector has slowly descended to a loss of 0.6%, or a fresh session low. That makes financials today's worst performing sector. First Horizon (FHN 10.56, -0.43), AIG (AIG 29.62, -1.08), Citigroup (C 44.04, -1.16), Allstate (ALL 32.93, -0.50), and Fifth Third Bank (FITB 12.83, -0.16) make up the five worst performers in the sector. Property play CB Richard Ellis (CBG 27.40, +0.67) has actually managed to put together an impressive gain in the face of the sector's weakness, however.

Oil holds solid gains on a rebound after last week's sell-off.

June WTI up $3.40 at $100.58, in the upper reaches of the day's $97.42/101.17

S&P: Greece clearly needs more funding than EU/IMF see
Oil retreats

June WTI holds around $99.60, correcting from session highs. Resistance remains at $102.40 with support comes near $95.23 and $94.57.

EUR/GBP under pressure

EUR/GBP extended its losses to current stg0.8761, as the euro saw a sharp sell off on press reports suggesting Greece was discussing leaving the eurozone. However, this story was vehemently denied. Offers remain in place to stg0.8800, a break to open a move toward stg0.8840/45. Support ahead of stg0.8755/45.

FX: Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

EUR/USD  $1.4500, $1.4600
USD/JPY Y80.00, Y80.50, Y81.10, Y81.50
EUR/JPY Y115.40, Y117.10
GBP/USD $1.6350
AUD/USD $1.0650, $1.0800, $1.0950
NZD/USD $0.7800

Before the bell: Stocks headed for early gains

U.S. stocks were set to open higher Monday as oil, gold and silver prices continued to climb, and investors geared up for a week of fresh economic data.
Stocks edged higher Friday, as a steep sell-off in the euro dampened U.S. investor enthusiasm about a stronger-than-expected jobs report.
But all three indexes closed down more than 1% for the week, as a steep sell-off in commodities - especially silver and crude - spilled over into the broader market.
Part of the reason for the pullback in commodity prices last week was that they may have risen too rapidly.

Meanwhile, sovereign debt woes continue to plague Europe.
Investors will continue to keep an eye on Greece. Late last week, there were rumors about the country abandoning the eurozone. But early Monday, reports swirled about the debt-ridden country considering another bailout to fund its debts.
China will also be on investors' minds Monday. The country will release its latest trade gap figures overnight.
Companies: Tyson Foods (TSN, Fortune 500) reported earnings per share that beat by a penny but the company missed on revenue. Shares were flat in premarket trading.
Economy: Among the key reports due later in the week are the March trade balance, due Wednesday, the April retail sales figures on Thursday and a reading on April consumer prices slated for Friday.

EUR/GBP retreats

EUR/GBP retreats while cable meeting support ahead of a $1.6320 option strike. Euro weakens after the S&P Greece downgrade. The cross currently trades around stg0.8778 after breaking support area between stg0.8785/80.

EUR/USD weakens

EUR/USD extends losses after the Greek downgrade. Area of $1.4350/40 seen to hold residual bids ahead of that overnight low with further demand interest at $1.4320 with stops below, presumably under the Friday low at $1.4310. Euro last at $1.4354.

ECB TRICHET: we all intend to solidly anchor inflation expectations
  • Saudi Arabia ready to appropriately supply oil markets
  • global recovery confirmed;nobody feels there could be double-dip
  • expect very impressive rebound in Japan later on
ECB TRICHET: we all intend to solidly anchor inflation expectations
  • Saudi Arabia ready to appropriately supply oil markets
  • global recovery confirmed;nobody feels there could be double-dip
  • expect very impressive rebound in Japan later on



GREECE: S&P downgrades Greece to B from BB- and it's still on watch neg.
EU session review: Euro advances; Yen drops

Data released:
06:00     Germany     Current account (March) unadjusted, bln    19.5    -    8.9
06:00     Germany     Trade balance (March) unadjusted, bln    18.9    -    12.1
07:00     UK     Halifax house price index (April)    -1.4%    0.2%    0.1%
07:00     UK     Halifax house price index (April) 3m Y/Y    -3.7%    -2.9%    -2.9%

The euro rose against the dollar, rebounding from its biggest two-day drop since 2008, on speculation the region’s debt crisis won’t keep the European Central Bank from increasing interest rates.
The common currency gained after European Union officials agreed in an unannounced meeting on May 6 to reconsider the terms of the 110 billion-euro ($158 billion) lifeline Greece received last year.
The euro has risen 3% this year. The yen has weakened 4.7%, while the dollar is down 5.1%.
The dollar slipped before U.S. reports this week that may show fewer initial jobless claims and increased retail sales, providing evidence the recovery of the world’s largest economy is maintaining momentum.
The Australian dollar strengthened for a second day before data tomorrow forecast to show China’s imports gained in April. China is the largest importer of Australia’s raw materials.
The pound depreciated after the Confederation of British Industry lowered its economic growth predictions and a report showed house prices unexpectedly fell.

EUR/USD rose to $1.4440 before slipped to the lows below $1.4400.

GBP/USD fell from $1.6410 to $1.6350. Later rate recovered to $1.6370.

USD/JPY rose from Y80.50 to Y80.80.

There is no major data for today.


Oil climbs with the June WTI contract stretching up to $100.67, and heading for next resistance seen at $102.40. June Ice Brent crude also rallying to a day's high of $113.16

USD/JPY holds tight

USD/JPY managed to challenge the Asian high of Y80.84 in Europe, before meeting resistance above Y80.80. Further supply comes towards $80.95 with stops on a break of Y81.00 and Y81.20. Bids remain from Y80.50/55 down to Y80.00. Dollar trades Y80.78.

EUR/JPY weakens

EUR/JPY failed to break through offers currently lying Y116.45/50, with the earlier high of Y116.48 intact. Further offers now seen up to Y116.80 with stops above. Cross currently trades Y116.16.

GERMANY FINMIN: Won't comment on report Greece needs more aid.
  • waiting on IMF, ECB, EU report on Greece;
  • reaffirms Greece EMU exit is not on the agenda.
OECD: March leading indicators point to slower expansion in most EU countries.
  • Still expansion relative to trend in US, Germany, Russia
  • Stable but slow expansion seen in France and UK
  • Regained momentum signaled in Canada and China
  • Slowdown relative to trend seen in Italy, Brazil, India
  • March leading OECD indicator +0.2 pt m/m, +1.5 pts y/y



EU focus: U.K. Pound depreciates on rates

The pound fell against the euro after the Confederation of British Industry lowered its economic growth estimates for the U.K. and a report showed house prices unexpectedly fell the most in seven months in April.
Gross domestic product will rise by 1.7% in 2011 compared with a February estimate of 1.8%, while expansion next year will be 2.2% instead of 2.3%, Britain’s biggest employers’ group said in quarterly forecasts released today.
U.K. house prices fell the most in seven months in April, a separate report from Halifax showed today.
U.K. house prices contracted 1.4% in April from the previous month, compared with 0.1% growth estimated by analysts.
“The data has been weak and the problem is that we haven’t yet seen the full impact of the fiscal cuts on the economy,” said Sarah Hewin, a senior economist at Standard Chartered Bank. “That means the data is likely to get worse, which will allow the Bank of England to keep rates steady for longer. That will certainly keep the pound under pressure.”

The Bank of England kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record low 0.5% on May 5 to boost the economy, which grew 0.5% in the first quarter. Slowing economic growth comes as Britain implements the deepest government spending cuts since World War II, threatening to drag output lower.
The central bank’s monetary policy stance is also being complicated by inflation, which is accelerating at twice its 2% target. Inflation still unexpectedly eased to 4% in March, following five months of acceleration to a more than two-year high of 4.4% in February.
“Growth will remain weak and we see no rate hike in 2011,” said Hewin. “Rate hikes have been pushed back. We see the first rate hike in the first quarter of 2012.”
Money markets are factoring in a 25 basis-point increase in the central bank’s main rate by year-end.

EUR/GBP breaks below stg0.8800 with rate extending its corrective pullback off highs of stg0.8818 to stg0.8790. Next support seen at stg0.8780.
EUR/USD weakens

EUR/USD drops below $1.4400 on US investment house sales, extending the corrective pullback off $1.4443 to $1.4390. Rate currently trades around $1.4397. Stops noted below $1.4395, a break to open a deeper move toward $1.4375/70. Resistance $1.4440/50, with stops above.

GERMANY FINMIN: Won't comment on report Greece needs more aid.
  • waiting on IMF, ECB, EU report on Greece;
  • reaffirms Greece EMU exit is not on the agenda.


FTSE -0.25% 5,962, CAC -0.88% 4,022, DAX -0.77% 7,435
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

EUR/USD  $1.4500, $1.4600
USD/JPY Y80.00, Y80.50, Y81.10, Y81.50
EUR/JPY Y115.40, Y117.10
GBP/USD $1.6350
AUD/USD $1.0650, $1.0800, $1.0950
NZD/USD $0.7800

EMU: May Investor Sentiment Index 10.9
Asian stock close:


Hang Seng +0.76% 23,336.00

Shanghai Composite +0.30% 2,872.46

Nikkei -0.66%  9,794.38


Forex: Weekly review

On Monday the dollar fell for a 10th straight day, the longest slump in 17 years, after slower manufacturing growth reinforced speculation the Federal Reserve will maintain record-low rates.
Dollar index advanced earlier after the U.S. said al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden had been killed.
The yen snapped two days of gains versus the euro after Obama said bin Laden was killed after a firefight at a house in Pakistan. Bin Laden was the architect of a radical Islamist movement that killed almost 3,000 people in the U.S. on Sept. 11, 2001, and recast global security and politics.
On Tuesday the yen and the Swiss franc rose against all of their most-traded counterparts as investors sought the currencies’ relative safety amid declines in equities and commodities.
The dollar erased gains against the euro as stocks trimmed losses after a report showed U.S. factory orders rose more than forecast.
Canada’s dollar fluctuated after rising earlier as Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservatives won a majority of seats in Parliament for the first time.
On Wednesday the euro reached its highest level in 17 months against the dollar on speculation European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet will signal further rate increases after policy makers meet on Thursday.
The U.S. dollar fell versus the euro on weaker-than-forecast economic data and speculation the Federal Reserve will maintain economic stimulus.
ADP Employer Services data showed employment at U.S. companies increased by 179,000 jobs in April, compared with a revised 207,000 in March. The median estimate called for a 198,000 advance this month.
The Canadian dollar fell for a third day against its U.S. counterpart, the longest losing streak since March, as crude oil dropped. The commodity is Canada’s biggest export. 
On Thursday the dollar strengthened from almost a three-year low even as claims for unemployment benefits jumped last week and worker productivity slowed in the first quarter, encouraging the Federal Reserve to keep borrowing costs low. 
Applications for jobless benefits jumped by 43,000 to 474,000 in the week ended April 30, the most since August, Labor Department figures showed today. The measure of employee output per hour increased at a 1.6 percent annual rate after a 2.9 percent gain in the prior three months, other data from the Labor Department showed.
The euro dropped the most against the dollar in two weeks and slid versus the yen after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet signaled the ECB may wait until after June to raise interest rates again.
On Friday the euro fell against all of its most-traded counterparts after Der Spiegel magazine reported that debt-strapped Greece may stop using the currency.
The European currency reached a two-week low against the dollar after the magazine said Greece is considering reintroducing its own currency and that the European Commission called a meeting to discuss the move. A spokesman for Luxembourg’s Jean-Claude Juncker, who leads euro-region finance ministers, denied the report.
The government reported that the economy added 244,000 jobs in April, much better than expected.
The unemployment rate ticked higher to 9% from 8.8% but investors were clearly tuned into the top-line number.  Economists were expecting the report to show that employers added only 185,000 jobs in the month and the unemployment rate to remain 8.8%.

UK: Apr Halifax house price index -1.4% m/m, -3.7% 3m y/y
Stocks: Weekly review

Asian stocks declined, with the regional benchmark index erasing gains for the year, as rising jobless claims and declining consumer confidence in the U.S. stoked concern the recovery in world’s biggest economy is weakening.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.9 percent to 137.54 as of 7:39 p.m. in Tokyo, set for its biggest drop since April 19. About three stocks fell for every two that rose. The measure is heading for a 1.5 percent decline this week after central banks from India to the Philippines raised interest rates and U.S. reports showed companies added fewer jobs than estimated in April and service industries expanded at the slowest pace in eight months.

European stocks retreated for the first week in three as energy and mining companies tumbled with commodities, overshadowing a bigger-than-forecast increase in U.S. payrolls.
Fresnillo Plc, the world’s biggest primary silver producer, slumped 12 percent as the precious metal had the largest weekly drop in more than 30 years. Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Europe’s largest oil company, sank 4.2 percent as crude suffered its biggest weekly retreat in a year. Lloyds Banking Group Plc plunged 8.9 percent after reporting a loss.
The Stoxx 600 dropped 0.9 percent to 281.33 this week, paring its 2011 advance to 2 percent. The measure closed at a two-month high on May 2 as President Barack Obama said U.S. forces killed al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, before sliding 2.2 percent over the following three days.
European shares pared their weekly decline today as U.S. Labor Department figures showed the world’s biggest economy added more jobs than forecast. Payrolls increased by 244,000 workers last month, the biggest gain since May 2010. Private hiring surged by 268,000 in April, the most since February 2006.
Economic data earlier in the week had been less positive. April reports from the Institute for Supply Management released on May 2 and May 4 said U.S. manufacturing cooled and the nation’s service industries expanded at the slowest pace in eight months.
In China, a manufacturing index for last month fell after the government raised interest rates and bank reserve requirements and allowed gains in the yuan to pick up. Factory orders in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, unexpectedly dropped in March, the Economy Ministry in Berlin said.
Commodities Selloff
Selling swept commodity markets this week as investors sold positions following gains of more than 23 percent in 2011 through April 29 by silver, oil, gasoline, coffee and cotton. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 commodities sank 10 percent this week.

U.S. stocks pared gains, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index headed for its biggest weekly loss since March, as concern about a Greek debt restructuring offset optimism from a stronger-than-forecast growth in jobs.
Stocks trimmed gains after two people familiar with the situation said European finance officials are meeting to discuss restructuring Greek debt.
The S&P 500 rose 0.3 percent to 1,338.64 at 3:07 p.m. in New York, after earlier rallying as much as 1.4 percent. The benchmark gauge had dropped 2.1 percent this week through yesterday amid a commodity slump.
Payrolls increased by 244,000 workers last month, the biggest gain since May 2010, after a revised 221,000 gain the prior month, the Labor Department said. Economists projected an April rise of 185,000, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. Employment excluding government jobs jumped the most in five years. The jobless rate rose to 9 percent, the first increase since November.

Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3: Y81.30 (resistance line from Apr 8) 
Resistance 2:Y81.10 (МА (200) for Н1)
Resistance 1:Y80.85 (session high) 
Current price: Y80.60
Support 1:Y80.50 (session low)  
Support 2:Y80.20 (May 6 low)  
Support 3:Y79.55 (May 5 low)  
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of Y80.60. The nearest resistance - Y80.85. Above  growth  is possible  to Y81.10. The nearest support - Y80.50. Below losses are possible  to Y80.20. 

Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.8875 (Apr 22-25 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.8830 (Apr 27 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.8800 (May 6 high)
Current price: Chf0.8752
Support 1: Chf0.8740 (session low)
Support 2: Chf0.8675 (May 6 low)
Support 3: Chf0.8550 (May 4-5 low)
Comments: the pair decreased. The nearest support - Chf0,8740. Below loss may extend to Chf0.8675. The nearest resistance - Chf0.8800. Above is  located Chf0.8830. 

Tech on GBP/USD


Resistance 3: $ 1.6550 (МА (200) for Н1)
Resistance 2: $ 1.6460 (May 6 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6410 (resistance line from May 2)
Current price: $1.6396
Support 1 : $1.6340 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.6220 (Apr 12, 13 and 19 low)
Support 3 : $1.6200 (38.2 % FIBO $1.5340-$ 1.6740)
Comments: the pair become stronger in around $1.6400. The nearest resistance - area $1.6410. Above growth is possible to $1.6460. The nearest support $1.6340. Below is possible testings of around $1.6220. 


The German trade surplus rose to a seasonally-adjusted E15.3 billion in March
Tech on EUR/USD


Resistance 3: $ 1.4940 (May 4 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.4700 (around of 61.8 % FIBO $1.4940-$ 1.4300)
Resistance 1: $ 1.4585 (May 6 high)
Current price: $1.4396
Support 1 : $1.4300 (May 6 low)
Support 2 : $1.4150 (Apr 18 low, 38.2 % FIBO $1.2870-$ 1.4940)
Support 3 : $1.4020 (Mar 28 low)
Comments: the pair receded from the low reached on Friday. The nearest support $1,4300. Below losses are possible to $1.4150. The nearest resistance - $1.4585. Above growth is possible to $1,4700.


Schedule for today, Monday, May 09 2011:

06:00 Germany Current account (March) unadjusted, bln - 8.9
06:00 Germany Trade balance (March) unadjusted, bln - 12.1
07:00 UK Halifax house price index (April) 0.2% 0.1%
07:00 UK Halifax house price index (April) 3m Y/Y -2.9% -2.9%
12:15 Canada  Housing Starts s.a (YoY) (Apr) 183.0K 188.8K
23:01 United Kingdom RICS House Price Balance (Apr) -22% -23%

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