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09.02.2011
19:56
Dow -23.23 at 12209.91, Nasdaq -11.34 at 2785.85, S&P -6.79 at 1317.77

A renewed selling effort has sent stocks to fresh session lows. Most of the push has come against energy stocks (-1.5%), materials stocks (-1.4%), and financials (-1.0%). Consumer discretionary stocks (+0.5%) and telecom stocks (+0.3%) are still the only sectors sporting any kind of a gain.

19:15
ECB: Bini-Smaghi: markets trust ECB on inflation; EMY area more crediblе than others on inflation.
18:45
Dow -1.78 at 12231.37, Nasdaq -2.33 at 2794.74, S&P -3.28 at 1321.29

Strong results from an auction of 10-year Notes spurred a rally in Treasuries, but they have started to drift back a bit. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Note is now at 3.66%.

18:25
American focus: Bernanke put the dollar under pressure

The dollar fell for a third day against the currencies of major U.S. trade partners as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the unemployment rate is likely to remain high “for some time.”
The euro extended an advance, rising against all of its 16 most-traded counterparts, as Bernanke told the House Budget Committee that high U.S. unemployment will persist even after the biggest two-month drop in the jobless rate since 1958.
“Although the growth rate of economic activity appears likely to pick up this year, the unemployment rate probably will remain elevated for some time,” the Fed chief testified. “With output growth likely to be moderate for a while and with employers reportedly still reluctant to add to their payrolls, it will be several years before the unemployment rate has returned to a more normal level,” he said.
Bernanke and the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee are waiting for further proof of a durable pickup in the job market as they press forward with their plan to buy $600 billion in Treasury securities to spur the pace of recovery. In a Jan. 26 statement, policy makers said the recovery “has been insufficient to bring about a significant improvement in labor market conditions.”
U.S. unemployment dropped to 9% last month, the lowest level since April 2009, a report showed on Feb. 4. It fell to 9.4% in December, from 9.8% in November.
"His general tone seems to be quite dovish,” said Alan Ruskin, global head of Group-of-10 foreign-exchange strategy at Deutsche Bank AG in New York. “The market is getting used to the idea that even with the improvement in the U.S. data, the Fed’s going to be very slow to respond with tightening and therefore the dollar is not going to be that responsive to strong economic data.”

17:27
Dow -18.39 at 12214.76, Nasdaq -10.06 at 2786.99, S&P -5.94 at 1318.63

A flurry of recent selling has sent the stock market to a fresh session low. The retreat has been relatively broad, but pressure has been most pronounced against natural resource plays like energy and materials stocks.
The energy sector is now down 1.6%. At the moment there isn't a single name in the 41-member sector that has managed to preserve any kind of gain. Oil and gas drillers and explorers are among the hardest hit; both groups are currently down 2.0%.
Materials stocks are collectively off by 1.0%, but it's diversified metals and mining plays (-2.9%) that are having the heaviest drag on the space.

16:40
Dow +9.08 at 12242.23, Nasdaq -0.27 at 2796.78, S&P -1.46 at 1323.11

The S&P 500 recently worked its way to the neutral line, but it was met with resistance there. It has since drifted back to a slight loss. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq is lingering near the unchanged mark and the Dow has managed to put together a narrow gain. The Dow has finished higher in each of the past seven sessions.
Consumer discretionary stocks continue to distinguish themselves. The sector has ascended to a 0.8% gain, which comes on top of the sector's 1.2% advance in the prior session. What's more, consumer discretionary stocks have advanced in five straight sessions for a cumulative gain of 4.4%, whereas the broader market has gained 1.4% during the course of the last five sessions.

16:33
FED: Bernanke said could be 4-5 yrs to get to normal US unemployment 5%-6%
  • Once econ has 'escape velocity' can withdraw QE.
15:54
FED: Bernanke said Fed must pick right time to tighten, sees no indication in mkts of expected jump in future inflation.
15:31
US: EIA oil data for Feb 4 wk: crude stocks +1.9m to 345.1 bbl.
15:25
EUR/USD back to figure

EUR/USD gets a quick pop to $1.3710 to print a session high on $1.3720, where offers and stops were mentioned. Bigger stops above $1.3720, with upside
targets at $1.3760 and $1.3860 being discussed.

15:09
FED: Bernanke's text repeats his Feb 3, but adds
  • ultimately, at the approp time, Fed will normalize its bal sheet by selling these (QE) assets back into the mkt
  • US econ is likely to pick up but unemployment will remain elevated for some time
  • Fed has the tools to tighten when needed
14:59
EUR/USD holds higher

EUR/USD continues to hold higher ahead of the option cut and the Bernanke appearance. Rate holds around $1.3680 with stops at $1.3690 to $1.3710. Above there, offers and stops are mixed.

14:55
FX OPTIONS: expiries for the 1500GMT cut today
USD/JPY Y80.00, Y80.45, Y80.75, Y81.50, Y83.00, Y83.30 
EUR/JPY Y111.95  
EUR/USD $1.3415, $1.3430, $1.3500
GBP/USD $1.5700
AUD/USD $1.0000 $1.0040
AUD/JPY Y83.00
USD/CHF Chf0.9800
GBP/JPY Y131.75
14:18
Before the bell: Stocks poised for a lower open

U.S. stocks were set to open lower Wednesday, as investors awaited U.S. Treasury secretary Tim Geithner's comments on the economy and jobs, and Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke's House testimony about the deficit.
Stocks posted another day of solid gains Tuesday, with the Dow climbing for its seventh straight day.
The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained 72 points, or 0.6%, to close at 12,233.

Economy: Fed chairman Ben Bernanke, the nation's top monetary policy maker, is scheduled to testify before the House Budget Committee, with the focus on the budget deficit.
After markets open, a weekly government report on crude oil inventories is expected.
Companies: Dow component Coca-Cola (KO, Fortune 500) reported quarterly results before the market opened and matched analyst expectations. The soft drink maker reported that fourth-quarter earnings rose 9% to 72 cents per share. Coke shares gained more than 1% in premarket trading.
Cisco Systems (CSCO, Fortune 500) will report quarterly results after the closing bell.
Shares of Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500) fell nearly 3% in premarket trading after the bank announced late Tuesday that chief financial officer Howard Atkins is retiring. The company said the retirement wasn't due to Wells' financial condition or reporting.

14:04
USD/JPY retreats

USD/JPY holds around Y82.50 after testing session high on Y82.67. Offers remain at Y82.60/70. Some stops placed through Y82.70 with resistance behind at Y82.95/00 and Y83.25.

13:51
UK OSBORNE: Overall bank business lending to rise to Stg190 bln
13:49
UK OSBORNE: 5 major banks agree to lend Stg76 bln to business
13:36
EUR/USD recovers

EUR/USD edges up to $1.3650 from a better tone in EUR/GBP and also EUR/JPY. Both those pairs heading to the higher end of the day's range or beyond. Euro still expected to encounter supply at $1.3665 area.

13:17
OIL:

March WTI Crude remains rangebound ahead of this afternoon's Dept of Energy inventory report. Last night's API data surprised a market looking for a build of approx 2mbl, when the report showed a 560,000 barrel draw, and the market will now be looking to the DOE data released at 1530 GMT for clarification. Crude
has ranged $87.07-72 today and current trades around $87.28.

12:54
FTSE -15.63 -0.26% 6,075.70, CAC -2.20 -0.05% 4,106.07, Dax -0.93 -0.01% 7,322.31
12:47
European session: the markets expect Bernanke's testifies

Data:
07:00 Germany Trade Balance (Dec) €14.0B
09:30 United Kingdom Goods Trade Balance (Dec) £-9.247B

The euro strengthened against most of its major peers amid speculation data today will show the U.S. job market is improving, bolstering optimism about the global economy after German figures showed rising exports.
German exports rose 0.5 percent from November, a second month of gains, the Federal Statistics Office said today. Economists had forecast an increase of 1 percent, according to the median of estimates in a survey.
The euro appeared under pressure after wire headline that ECB Weber will not replace Trichet as ECB president, citing unidentified source.
The yen fluctuated between gains and losses as Moody’s Investors Service said the outlook for Japan’s sovereign credit rating was stable. 
Losses by the dollar were tempered before Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke testifies today at a hearing of the House Budget Committee.


EUR/USD: the pair decreased in around $1.3610.
GBP/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1.6045-$ 1.6100.
USD/JPY: the pair become stronger in around Y82.60.

US data starts at 1200GMT with the weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index. The main event is likely to be at 1500GMT,when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies before House Budget Committee on economic, employment and budget issues in Washington. US data continues at 1530GMT with the weekly EIA Crude Oil Stocks data. 


12:23
OPTIONS: expiries for the 15:00 GMT cut today:

USD/JPY Y80.00, Y80.45, Y80.75, Y81.50, Y83.00, Y83.30 
EUR/JPY Y111.95  
EUR/USD $1.3415, $1.3430, $1.3500
GBP/USD $1.5700
AUD/USD $1.0000 $1.0040
AUD/JPY Y83.00
USD/CHF Chf0.9800
GBP/JPY Y131.75

11:43
FTSE -21.75 -0.36% 6,069.58, CAC -8.10 -0.20% 4,100.17, Dax -6.68 -0.09% 7,316.56
11:19
EUR/USD:

Euro under pressure and hits $1.3609 after wire headline that ECB Weber will not replace Trichet as ECB president, citing unidentified source.

11:09
European session: The euro strengthened

The euro strengthened against most of its major peers amid speculation data today will show the U.S. job market is improving, bolstering optimism about the global economy after German figures showed rising exports.
The dollar declined for a third straight day against the European single currency. 
The yen fluctuated between gains and losses as Moody’s Investors Service said the outlook for Japan’s sovereign credit rating was stable. 
German exports rose 0.5 percent from November, a second month of gains, the Federal Statistics Office said today. Economists had forecast an increase of 1 percent, according to the median of estimates in a survey.
Losses by the dollar were tempered before Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke testifies today at a hearing of the House Budget Committee.
“Bernanke is likely to emphasize fiscal tightening,” analysts led by Hans-Guenter Redeker, London-based global head of foreign-exchange strategy at BNP Paribas SA, wrote yesterday. “While this would normally be negative for a currency, it will prove positive for the dollar in this case, given concerns over sovereign risk.”

10:29
GERMAN DIHK: Germany's GDP to reach pre-crisis level early this year
09:53
OPTIONS: expiries for the 1500GMT cut today:

USD/JPY Y80.00, Y80.45, Y80.75, Y81.50, Y83.00 
EUR/JPY Y111.95  
EUR/USD $1.3415, $1.3430, $1.3500
GBP/USD $1.5700
AUD/USD $1.0000 $1.0040
AUD/JPY Y83.00
USD/CHF Chf0.9800



09:36
UK Dec global goods deficit Stg9.25 bn
09:25
Asian session: The dollar weakened

Data:
05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence Index (Jan) 41.1 
05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence Households (Jan) 41.1

The dollar weakened for a third day against the euro before reports that economists said will show U.K. factory output increased and U.S. initial jobless claims fell, adding to signs the global economy is improving.
The yen fluctuated between losses and gains as Thomas Byrne, senior vice president at Moody’s Investors Service, said the outlook for Japan’s sovereign credit rating was stable. 
Losses in the dollar were tempered before Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke testifies today at a hearing of the House Budget Committee.

EUR/USD: the pair become stronger in around $1.3650.
GBP/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1.6050-$ 1.6080.
USD/JPY: the pair bargained within the limits of Y82.20-Y82.50.

UK data includes trade and also the latest Bank of England Quoted Rates data. The trade data is expected to be steady at -stg8.7 billion in Global Goods with Total Trade at -stg4.0 billion.
US data starts at 1200GMT with the weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index. The main event is likely to be at 1500GMT,when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies before House Budget Committee on economic, employment and budget issues in Washington. US data continues at 1530GMT with the weekly EIA Crude Oil Stocks data. 

09:17
Forex: Tuesday's review

The dollar dropped against most of its major counterparts as China’s interest-rate increases failed to quell investors’ appetite for higher-yielding assets. 
The benchmark one-year lending rate will increase to 6.06% from 5.81%, effective tomorrow, the People’s Bank of China said on its website today. The one- year deposit rate will rise to 3%, from 2.75%. 
Higher consumer spending, along with business investment in equipment and software, point to U.S. growth this year of “pretty close to 4%,” Lacker said today in a speech in Newark, Delaware.
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke testifies tomorrow at a hearing of the House Budget Committee. 
Sterling dropped after the U.K. increased a levy on bank balance sheets.

EUR/USD: the pair shown high in the field of $1.3690, but to end of session decreased.
GBP/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair decreased below a mark $1.6100.
USD/JPY: positions of pair on results of yesterday's session essentially havn't changed.

UK data includes trade and also the latest Bank of England Quoted Rates data. The trade data is expected to be steady at -stg8.7 billion in Global Goods with Total Trade at -stg4.0 billion.
US data starts at 1200GMT with the weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index. The main event is likely to be at 1500GMT,when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies before House Budget Committee on economic, employment and budget issues in Washington. US data continues at 1530GMT with the weekly EIA Crude Oil Stocks data. 


08:40
Stocks: Tuesday's review

Japan’s stocks gained for a third day, as an improved earnings outlook and U.S. takeovers bolstered investors’ confidence the global recovery will be sustained.
KDDI Corp., Japan’s second-largest mobile-phone operator, jumped 5.8 percent after it was boosted to “outperform” by Credit Suisse Group AG. Nippon Meat Packers Inc., Japan’s biggest producer of ham and sausage, rose 6.6 percent after increasing its full-year profit forecast. Mitsubishi Estate Co., Japan’s No. 2 developer, gained 2.1 percent after CLSA Asia- Pacific Markets raised its share-price estimate. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc., Japan’s second-largest publicly traded bank, gained 2.3 percent amid lenders’ reports of higher profits.
Most European stocks rose as better- than-estimated results from ArcelorMittal to Swedbank AB and Swatch Group AG outweighed China’s third increase in interest rates in four months.
ArcelorMittal, the world’s biggest steelmaker, and Swedbank, Sweden’s largest bank by branches, gained at least 2 percent. Swatch rallied 5.8 percent after the world’s biggest watchmaker said profit increased 42 percent in 2010. UBS AG surged 4.3 percent as Switzerland’s largest bank attracted net new money from wealthy clients for a second straight quarter.
More than 73 percent of the 305 companies in the U.S. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index that reported results since Jan. 10 have topped per-share earnings projections, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. In Europe, 57 percent beat forecasts, the data show
U.S. stocks rose, giving the Dow Jones Industrial Average the longest winning streak since July, as retail sales rebounded and as McDonald’s Corp. rallied after reporting higher-than-estimated monthly results.
McDonald’s jumped 3 percent, the most since May, after January same-store sales grew 5.3 percent. J.C. Penney Co. and Macy’s Inc. gained at least 2 percent as the International Council of Shopping Centers said weekly retail sales snapped four straight declines. A gauge of homebuilders in S&P indexes gained 2.1 percent as executives and economists predicted a bounce in demand. Urban Outfitters Inc. climbed 4.3 percent as Citigroup Inc. lifted its rating on the shares.
Earnings “have been much better than expected as a result of decent sales and much higher margins,” said Steven Neimeth, a money manager at SunAmerica Asset Management in Jersey City, New Jersey, which manages $9 billion. “These are early indications that the economy is gaining traction on recovery.”
U.S. stocks rose yesterday as takeover announcements and improving profits bolstered optimism, extending the S&P 500’s advance from a 12-year low in 2009 to 95 percent. Almost three- quarters of the companies in the S&P 500 that reported quarterly results since Jan. 10 have topped analysts’ projections for per- share profit
Earnings for S&P 500 companies rose 29 percent in 2010, the fastest growth since 1995, and will grow 15 percent this year, according to analyst estimates

08:16
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3:Y83.70 (Jan 7 high)
Resistance 2:Y83.00 (resistance line from Jan 7)
Resistance 1:Y82.50 (Feb 4-7 high, session high)
Current price: Y82.40
Support 1:Y82.20 (session low)
Support 2:Y81.70 (Feb 8 low)
Support 3:Y81.30/10 (Feb 1 and 4 low)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of the reached high. The nearest resistance - Y82.50. Above growth is possible  to Y83.00. The nearest support Y82.20. Below losses are possible to Y81.30/10.

07:55
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9780 (high of January)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9690 (Jan 21 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9650 (session high)
Current price: Chf0.9628
Support 1: Chf0.9590/00 (Feb 4-7 high, support line from Feb 2)
Support 1: Chf0.9530 (Feb 7-8, 38.2 % FIBO Chf0,9330-Chf0,9650)
Support 3: Chf0.9490 (50.0% FIBO Chf0,9330-Chf0,9650)
Comments: the pair receded from the reached high. The nearest support Chf0.9590/00. Below loss may extend to Chf0.9530. The nearest resistance Chf0.9650. Above is located Chf0.9690.

07:50
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6275/00 (Nov 4 and Feb 3 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.6180 (Feb 7 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6090 (session high)
Current price: $1.6070
Support 1 : $1.6030 (Feb 4 and 8 low)
Support 3 : $1.5920 (38.2 % FIBO $1,5340-$ 1,6280)
Support 3 : $1.5820/10 (50.0 % FIBO $1,5340-$ 1,6280, Jan 31 low)
 
Comments: the pair bargains below a mark $1.6100. The nearest resistance - $1.6090. Above growth is possible to $1.6180. The nearest support - $1.6030. Below is  possible testings of area $1.5920. 

07:34
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.3860 (Feb 2 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.3770 (Feb 2 low)
Resistance 1: $ 1.3690 (Feb 8 high)
Current price: $1.3647
Support 1 : $1.3610 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.3570 (Feb 9 low)
Support 3 : $1.3510 (Feb 7 low)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of $1.3650. The nearest resistance - $1,3690. Above growth is possible to $1,3770. The nearest support - $1,3610. Below decrease possible to $1.3570.

07:26
Schedule for today, Wednesday, Feb 09 2011:

07:00 Germany Current account (December) unadjusted, bln 17.6 12.9 (12.0)
07:00 Germany Trade balance (December) unadjusted, bln 11.9 12.3 13.1 (11.8)
09:30 UK Trade in goods (December), bln -4.8 -8.7
15:00 United States Fed's Bernanke testifies
15:30 United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks change (Feb 4) 2.25M 2.60M
23:50 Japan Machinery orders core (December) adjusted 5.0% -3.0%
23:50 Japan Machinery orders core (December) unadjusted Y/Y 1.6% 11.6%

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