CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 08-10-2014

(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Light Crude 87.71 +0.46%

Gold 1,221.90 +1.32%

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei 225 15,595.98 -187.85 -1.19%

Hang Seng 23,263.33 -159.19 -0.68%

Shanghai Composite 2,382.79 +18.92 +0.80%

FTSE 100 6,482.24 -13.34 -0.21%

CAC 40 4,168.12 -41.02 -0.97%

Xetra DAX 8,995.33 -90.88 -1.00%

S&P 500 1,968.89 +33.79 +1.75%

NASDAQ Composite 4,468.59 +83.39 +1.90%

Dow Jones 16,994.22 +274.83 +1.64%

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2730 +0,52%

GBP/USD $1,6158 +0,39%

USD/CHF Chf0,9520 -0,49%

USD/JPY Y108,13 -0,01%

EUR/JPY Y137,64 +0,51%

GBP/JPY Y174,7 +0,38%

AUD/USD $0,8830 +0,29%

NZD/USD $0,7896 +0,94%

USD/CAD C$1,1107 -0,49%

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

00:30 Australia Unemployment rate September 6.1% 6.2%

00:30 Australia Changing the number of employed September +121.0 -29.6

06:00 Germany Current Account August 21.7

06:00 Germany Trade Balance August 22.2 18.4

06:00 Japan Prelim Machine Tool Orders, y/y September +35.5%

06:45 France Trade Balance, bln August -5.5 -5.7

08:00 Eurozone ECB Monthly Report

11:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50%

11:00 United Kingdom Asset Purchase Facility 375 375

11:00 United Kingdom MPC Rate Statement

12:30 Canada New Housing Price Index August 0.0% +0.2%

12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims September 287 291

14:00 U.S. Wholesale Inventories August +0.1%

15:00 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks

23:50 Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

23:50 Japan Tertiary Industry Index August 0.0% +0.2%

Stock indices traded lower ahead the release of the minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest meeting. Investors are awaiting new signs for the direction of the U.S. monetary policy.

Yesterday's International Monetary Fund's economic growth cut and the disappointing German industrial production still weighed on markets.

SAP SE declined 3.8% after news reported the company will stop hiring until 2015.

Indexes on the close:

Name Price Change Change %

FTSE 100 6,482.24 -13.34 -0.21 %

DAX 8,995.33 -90.88 -1.00 %

CAC 40 4,168.12 -41.02 -0.97 %

The cost of WTI crude oil has fallen significantly, while reaching the lowest level since April 2013, which was associated with the release of a government report on reserves. As for oil grade Brent, then its price has fallen to a 27-month low, as there were signs of a slowdown in global economic growth. Yesterday the IMF for the third time this year lowered the growth forecast for the world economy, taking into account the weak performance of the largest countries in the euro zone, Japan and the major developing countries such as Brazil.

"Traders are concerned about the growth of the world economy and the oversupply of oil. Market notes increased offer with weak demand, "- said the analyst OptionsXpress.

Earlier today, the Department of Energy reported: oil reserves for the previous week rose by 5 million. Barrels to 361.65 million barrels, while the average forecast assumed their growth by 1.9 million. Barrels. Oil reserves in the terminal Cushing (Oklahoma) fell by 1.6 million barrels to 18.9 million barrels. Gasoline stocks rose 1.2 million barrels to 209.7 million barrels. Analysts had expected gasoline inventories are reduced as compared to the previous week to 900,000 barrels. Distillate stocks rose by 439,000 barrels to 126.1 million barrels, while analysts had expected a decrease of 1.2 million barrels.

Utilization rate of refining capacity fell less than expected to 89.3%. Analysts expected decline of 0.7 percent.

Put pressure on prices as the decision of the Office of the United States Energy Information Administration to lower growth forecasts for global oil consumption and OPEC production next year. In its monthly report, management has reduced its forecast for global demand to 91.47 million barrels per day to 91.55 million in the September report, that is the forecast growth in consumption has been reduced by 100,000 barrels per day to 1.24 million. The agency also lowered the forecast average daily production of OPEC in 2015 at 300,000 barrels to 29.24 million. In September, the country mined cartel almost 31 million barrels per day with the official quota of 30 million. Management has adjusted production forecast in the United States to 9.5 million. Barrels per day to 9.53 million. September.

The cost of the November futures for the American light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) fell to $ 87.33 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).

November futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mixture fell $ 0.79 to $ 90.94 a barrel on the London exchange ICE Futures Europe.

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies ahead the release of the minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest meeting. Investors are awaiting new signs for the direction of the U.S. monetary policy.

Yesterday's International Monetary Fund's economic growth cut still weighed on markets.

The euro traded slightly higher against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports from the Eurozone.

The British pound traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. U.K. Halifax house prices increased 0.6% in September, exceeding expectations for a 0.2% rise, after a flat reading in August. August's figure was revised down from a 0.1% increase.

On a yearly basis, U.K. Halifax house prices rose 9.6% in September, after a 9.7% gain in August.

The Swiss franc traded slightly higher against the U.S. dollar. Switzerland's unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.2% in September, in line with expectations.

The Canadian dollar traded lower despite the solid Canadian housing starts. Housing starts in Canada increased to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 197,343 units in September from 196,283 units in August. August's figure was revised up from 192,368 units. Analysts had expected an increase to 195,000 units.

The increase was driven by multiple unit homes including condominiums.

The New Zealand dollar traded mixed against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports from New Zealand.

The Australian dollar fell against the U.S. dollar. In the overnight trading session, the Aussie declined against the greenback as the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported problems with its July and August employment data. The Australian Bureau of Statistics will revise its July and August jobs data.

The Japanese yen traded slightly lower against the U.S. dollar. Japan's economy watchers' current conditions index remained unchanged at 47.4 in September, missing expectations for an increase to 48.2.

Japan's economy watchers' future conditions index dropped to 48.7 in September from 50.4 in August.

Japan's current account surplus rose to 130.8 billion yen in August from 99.3 billion yen in July, missing expectations for a rise to 190 billion yen.

Gold prices fell sharply, losing the all previously earned the position, due to the expectations of the publication of minutes of the September meeting of the Fed, which will help get new clues on the possible direction of monetary policy.

It is necessary to emphasize that optimistic data released last week, stressed the view that the strengthening of the economic recovery may prompt the Fed to raise interest rates earlier than forecast markets. Expectations of rising interest rates put pressure on gold as the precious metal will melt less attractive compared to other earning assets with growth rates.

The course of trade also continues to affect yesterday's decision by the IMF to lower global economic growth forecast for 2014 to 3.3 percent from 3.4 percent and for 2015 to 3.8 percent from 4.0 percent. Recall that in April, the IMF predicted global economic growth this year to 3.7%, but in July lowered its expectations to 3.4%. In addition, the IMF said that the forecast growth of the economies of developed countries in 2014 remained unchanged - at 1.8%, and the forecast for 2015 was reduced by 0.1% - up 2.3%. Estimates of GDP growth in emerging markets have been degraded to 4.4% from 4.5% for 2014 and to 5% from 5.2% for 2015.

Meanwhile, we add that today Chinese buyers returned to work after the holiday week. Margins on the Shanghai Gold Exchange rose to $ 05.06 per ounce to the spot price of the world market with a $ 3 before the holiday.

"Gold prices clearly can grow at the expense of risk aversion, but I think that the prices are not retained at this level, and again fall to $ 1,180," - said a trader in precious metals in Hong Kong.

According to HSBC analyst James Steel, despite the pause in the sale of gold and the likelihood of short covering, the forecast strengthening of the dollar is likely to retard the growth of quotations of gold.

The cost of the December gold futures on the COMEX today rose to 1209.80 dollars per ounce.

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp (CMHC) released housing starts data today. Housing starts in Canada increased to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 197,343 units in September from 196,283 units in August. August's figure was revised up from 192,368 units.

The increase was driven by multiple unit homes including condominiums. Multiple unit homes including condominiums climbed 2.4% in September.

EUR/USD: $1.2500(E399mn), $1.2540(E207mn), $1.2600(E1.71bn), $1.2700(E207mn), $1.2780(E577mn)

USD/JPY: Y107.25($370mn), Y107.50(Y200mn), Y108.00($1.22bn), Y108.30(210mn), Y108.50($352mn), Y108.90($422mn), Y109.50-55($1.12bn)

GBP/USD: $1.6130(stg301mn)

EUR/GBP: Stg0.7750(E150mn), stg0.7800(E284mn), stg0.7900(E300mn)

AUD/USD: $0.8770(A$100mn), $0.8815(A$200mn)

USD/CAD: C$1.1150($350mn)

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) released its monthly report today. The BoJ said that Japan's economy recovered moderately as a trend. Japan's production showed some weakness due to sales tax hike in April, so the central bank.

The BoJ expects that the economy in Japan will continue to recover moderately. The central bank pointed out that "private consumption is expected to remain resilient".

The consumer price inflation is expected to be around 1.25% for some time, the BoJ said.

Japan's central bank noted that the country's monetary base rose about 35% at annual rate.

U.S. stock-index futures fluctuated as the Federal Reserve releases minutes from its latest meeting and the corporate earnings season begins.

Global markets:

Nikkei 15,595.98 -187.85 -1.19%

Hang Seng 23,263.33 -159.19 -0.68%

Shanghai Composite 2,382.79 +18.92 +0.80%

FTSE 6,476.17 -19.41 -0.30%

CAC 4,182.39 -26.75 -0.64%

DAX 9,019.34 -66.87 -0.74%

Crude oil $87.81 (-1.20%)

Gold $1216.60 (+0.35%)

(company / ticker / price / change, % / volume)

Economic calendar (GMT0):

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)

01:45 China HSBC Services PMI September 54.1 53.5

05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current September 47.4 48.2 47.4

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook September 50.4 48.7

05:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate September 3.2% 3.2% 3.2%

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index September +0.1% +0.2% +0.6%

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y September +9.7% +9.6%

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies ahead the release of the minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest meeting. Investors are awaiting new signs for the direction of the U.S. monetary policy.

Yesterday's International Monetary Fund's economic growth cut still weighed on markets.

The euro traded mixed against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports from the Eurozone.

The British pound traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. U.K. Halifax house prices increased 0.6% in September, exceeding expectations for a 0.2% rise, after a flat reading in August. August's figure was revised down from a 0.1% increase.

On a yearly basis, U.K. Halifax house prices rose 9.6% in September, after a 9.7% gain in August.

The Swiss franc traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. Switzerland's unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.2% in September, in line with expectations.

The Canadian dollar traded mixed ahead of the Canadian housing starts. Housing starts in Canada are expected to 195,000 units in September.

EUR/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

GBP/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

USD/JPY: the currency pair traded mixed

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

12:15 Canada Housing Starts September 192 195

18:00 U.S. FOMC meeting minutes

23:50 Japan Core Machinery Orders September +3.5% +1.1%

23:50 Japan Core Machinery Orders, y/y September +1.1% -5.1%

EUR/USD

Offers $1.2800/10, $1.2740-55, $1.2685-710

Bids $1.2500

GBP/USD

Offers

Bids $1.6020, $1.6000, $1.5980

AUD/USD

Offers $0.8900, $0.8850, $0.8820

Bids $0.8750, $0.8700, $0.8680/60, $0.8650, $0.8640/20

EUR/JPY

Offers Y138.00, Y137.50

Bids Y136.50, Y136.00, Y135.50, Y135.00

USD/JPY

Offers Y109.50, Y108.90/00, Y108.70/80, Y108.20

Bids Y107.50, Y107.00, Y106.85/80

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.7980, stg0.7900

Bids stg0.7835/30

Stock indices traded lower ahead the release of the minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest meeting. Investors are awaiting new signs for the direction of the U.S. monetary policy.

Yesterday's International Monetary Fund's economic growth cut and the disappointing German industrial production still weighed on markets.

Gerresheimer AG fell 2.8% after missing profit forecasts for the third-quarter.

SAP SE declined 1.8% after news reported the company will stop hiring until 2015.

Current figures:

Name Price Change Change %

FTSE 6,468.63 -26.95 -0.41%

DAX 9,023.48 -62.73 -0.69%

CAC 40 4,182.4 -26.74 -0.64%

Most Asian stock indices closed lower as the IMF's economic growth cut weighed on markets. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its forecast for global economic growth to 3.3% in 2014, down from a previous forecast of 3.4%. 2015 forecast was lowered to 3.8%, down from a previous forecast of 4.0%.

Chinese HSBC services purchasing managers' index fell to 53.5 in September from 54.1 in August.

Japan's economy watchers' current conditions index remained unchanged at 47.4 in September, missing expectations for an increase to 48.2.

Japan's economy watchers' future conditions index dropped to 48.7 in September from 50.4 in August.

Japan's current account surplus rose to 130.8 billion yen in August from 99.3 billion yen in July, missing expectations for a rise to 190 billion yen.

Indexes on the close:

Nikkei 225 15,595.98 -187.85 -1.19%

Hang Seng 23,263.33 -159.19 -0.68%

Shanghai Composite 2,382.79 +18.92 +0.80%

EUR/USD: $1.2500(E399mn), $1.2540(E207mn), $1.2600(E1.71bn), $1.2700(E207mn), $1.2780(E577mn)

USD/JPY: Y107.25($370mn), Y107.50(Y200mn), Y108.00($1.22bn), Y108.30(210mn), Y108.50($352mn), Y108.90($422mn), Y109.50-55($1.12bn)

GBP/USD: $1.6130(stg301mn)

EUR/GBP: Stg0.7750(E150mn), stg0.7800(E284mn), stg0.7900(E300mn)

AUD/USD: $0.8770(A$100mn), $0.8815(A$200mn)

USD/CAD: C$1.1150($350mn)

Economic calendar (GMT0):

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)

01:45 China HSBC Services PMI September 54.1 53.5

05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current September 47.4 48.2 47.4

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook September 50.4 48.7

05:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate September 3.2% 3.2% 3.2%

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index September +0.1% +0.2% +0.6%

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y September +9.7% +9.6%

The U.S. dollar traded higher against the most major currencies. The International Monetary Fund's (IMF) forecast cut for global growth for 2014 and 2015 still weighed on the risk-related assets. The IMF lowered its forecast for global economic growth to 3.3% in 2014, down from a previous forecast of 3.4%. 2015 forecast was cut to 3.8%, down from a previous forecast of 4.0%.

The New Zealand dollar fell against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports from New Zealand.

The Australian dollar declined against the U.S. dollar as the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported problems with its July and August employment data. The Australian Bureau of Statistics will revise its July and August jobs data.

The Japanese yen decreased against the U.S. dollar after the disappointing economic data from Japan. Japan's economy watchers' current conditions index remained unchanged at 47.4 in September, missing expectations for an increase to 48.2.

Japan's economy watchers' future conditions index dropped to 48.7 in September from 50.4 in August.

Japan's current account surplus rose to 130.8 billion yen in August from 99.3 billion yen in July, missing expectations for a rise to 190 billion yen.

EUR/USD: the currency pair fell to $1.2626

GBP/USD: the currency pair decreased to $1.6051

USD/JPY: the currency pair climbed to Y108.53

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

12:15 Canada Housing Starts September 192 195

18:00 U.S. FOMC meeting minutes

23:50 Japan Core Machinery Orders September +3.5% +1.1%

23:50 Japan Core Machinery Orders, y/y September +1.1% -5.1%

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2776 (1860)

$1.2738 (1658)

$1.2712 (277)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.2629

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2776 (1860)

$1.2738 (1658)

$1.2712 (277)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date November, 7 is 50223 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2900 (5580);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date November, 7 is 48238 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2400 (4415);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.96 versus 0.96 from the previous trading day according to data from October, 7

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.6305 (1092)

$1.6208 (1475)

$1.6112 (689)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.6056

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.5991 (2121)

$1.5594 (1012)

$1.5796 (1482)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date November, 7 is 22026 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6750 (1893);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date November, 7 is 28009 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6000 (2121);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.27 versus 1.33 from the previous trading day according to data from October, 7

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.