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Dow -101.15 at 12618.34, Nasdaq -25.94 at 2846.72, S&P -13.52 at 1339.70

Stocks head into the final hour with substantial losses, although the major equity averages have managed to hold steady above their lows for the day. For the week, though, the S&P 500 is flat.
Consumer credit data for May was just posted. A $5.1 billion increase for the month exceeded the $3.5 billion jump that had been broadly expected. It also marked the eighth straight period of growth in the series.

US: May consumer credit +$5.1b
Oil weakening down $2.47 already to $96.21 per barrel (daily range of $95.60/99.18).
Nomura sells euro

Nomura has gone short euros around current levels  at $1.4250 and points 4 reasons for the play.

  • Italy remains a problem;
  • better news on the US fiscal front;
  • ECB hikes may not be as certain going forward "based on weaker growth momentum and financial market tension;
  • even if NFP was weak, we should see a bounce in US data in the next 1-2 months.

Nomura has a stop in place at $1.4550 and target below $1.4000.

USD/JPY holds around Y80.65 and remains within 15 pips of the morning low at Y80.50. Bids in place at Y80.50. Offers now at Y80.75/80.
JPM on Payrolls

JPM economist Michael Feroli revisits the weak June payroll data, says it has "not many positives." Some implications are "a Fed on extended hold, quite possibly for even longer than JPM's call for a first hike in early 2013".

US focus: Dollar drops on highest unemployment rate in 2011

The dollar dropped the most in a month against the yen after the government’s payrolls report showed employers added the fewest jobs in nine months and the unemployment rate increased to the highest level this year.
“This number is so horribly below what people expected,” said Boris Schlossberg at GFT Forex.
Payrolls expanded by 18,000 in June after a revised increase of 25,000 in the previous month, the Labor Department reported today. The median forecast of economists was for 105,000 more jobs. The unemployment rate unexpectedly increased to 9.2%.
President Barack Obama said today’s job report shows that ‘we still have a long way to go and a lot of work to do to give people the security and opportunity they deserve.”
The Canadian currency slid 0.4%. Rate earlier rose after the government reported that Canada’s employers added more jobs last month than economists forecast.
The euro headed for a 1.9% weekly drop versus the dollar, its biggest in almost a month.
“There’s a lot of concern about the Italian banks,” said Mark McCormick, a currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co.. “This is something that’s weighing on the euro. It gets back to the heart of the euro-zone debt crisis.”
The European Central Bank signaled more interest-rate increases yesterday after raising the target lending rate by a quarter-percentage point to 1.50%.

Gold holds stable

Gold holds at $1542.25/oz (range $1525.15/$1545.30). Support comes at $1527.29 (61.8%), then - at 55-day moving average ($1520). The
initial target is the June 22 peak at $1557.75, with the life-time high of $1575.79 (seen May 2) is the neat target.

EUR/USD continues to chop above earlier lows around $1.4210. Rate currently holds around $1.4260. Bids eyed ahead of $1.4200.
Dow -107.96 at 12611.53, Nasdaq -30.41 at 2842.25, S&P -14.96 at 1338.26

Oil prices have been on the retreat all session. The commodity came under pressure immediately after the June jobs report was posted. Oil prices were last quoted with a 2.5% loss at $96.20 per barrel.

USD/JPY recovers

USD/JPY holds in a tight Y80.60-70. On the downside bids at Y80.50 and Y80.45/40 (Y80.42 - 30 Jun low). On the topside offers at Y80.75/80 and Y80.85/90. The currency pair is trading mid-range Y80.65.

Dow -133.20 at 12586.29, Nasdaq -30.82 at 2841.84, S&P -17.03 at 1336.19

Stocks slipped some more in recent trade. Strength remains limited.
Financials and industrials continue to suffer the worst of this session's selling efforts. Sharp pressure has taken them down to losses of 1.7% and 1.5%, respectively.

Goldman on US data

Analysts at Goldman note that away from payrolls, "other data have shown better signs in recent weeks, including jobless claims, gasoline prices, and auto production. Nevertheless, the weak trend in payroll employment indicates some downside risk to our second half growth views."

ECB, Draghi: expects global imbalances to remain for a while.
  • macro-imbalances growing again and deficits must be cut, but not by inflation;
  • inflation could lead to protectionism.
Dow -105.73 at 12613.76, Nasdaq -22.02 at 2850.64, S&P -12.85 at 1340.37
US: May wholesale inventories +1.8%
EBA: stress tests release are due at July 15 from 1600GMT
US stocks: Dow futures are in the red by 130 points while Nasdaq futures are down 30 as stocks react to the weak June employment report.
Before the bell:

U.S. stocks were set to drop at the opening bell Friday, after the monthly jobs report showed employers added just 18,000 positions in June.
The Labor Department released its monthly jobs report at 8:30 a.m. ET, and its 18,000 figure was a major disappointment. A CNNMoney survey of 27 economists had forecast an addition of 120,000 jobs in June.
June's unemployment rate held at 9.2%, the same as the upwardly revised rate in May. Economists had forecast a small drop to 9%.
Economy: May wholesale inventory figures are due shortly after the opening bell.
Late in the afternoon, the Federal Reserve will release its report on May consumer credit report.
Companies: Shares of JDS Uniphase (JDSU) fell 3.6% in premarket trade after Piper Jaffray lowered its price target on the stock to $21 from $25.
World markets:

Oil for August delivery slipped $1.79 to $96.88 a barrel.
Gold futures for August delivery fell $1.50 to $1,529.10 an ounce.
Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury was flat, with the yield holding at 3.14%.

HFE: Jun payrolls data were a shocker

"June payrolls rose only 18K, well below the consensus, 105K. And the net revision was a hefty -44K. The unemployment rate rose a tenth to 9.2% - it was expected to be unch - and hourly earnings were flat, below the 0.2% consensus. This is a big bucket of very cold water." Still, they say "the details aren't quite as bad as the headline, with private payrolls up 57K, but that's still pretty terrible" - but they point out other data are improving so economy may be steadying.

ECB Draghi: expect Italy banks to pass stress tests comfortably
ECB Draghi: expect Italy banks to pass stress tests comfortably
USD/JPY collapses on weak payrolls

The rate collapses on weak data dropping from Y81.47 to support at Y80.75/70. More bids seen at Y80.55/50, ahead of the channel base around Y80.35.

US: Jun payrolls +18k and May-Apr revs -44k; unemploy rate +0.1pt to 9.2%
European session:

The euro declined, approaching a two- week low against the dollar, as a European Union document on bank stress tests deepened concern that the region’s debt crisis may intensify.
The euro also dropped against the yen as an internal EU document dated July 7 said banks that fail this year’s round of tests may need to present plans for making up their capital shortfall by the end of September. Governments should be ready to step in and help banks as a last resort, according to the preliminary document, which was prepared by government officials from the 27-nation region.
“It is the recognition that there will be more pressure on local governments to prop up their banking systems” that’s weakening the euro, said Jeremy Stretch, head of currency strategy at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce in London. “German Landesbanken and Spanish banks are considered the major pressure points.”
The pound fell to the lowest in more than a week against the dollar and gilts rallied as a measure of inflation slowed to the least since September, weakening the case for higher interest rates.

Goldman: Jun payroll estimates started centering at +90k but now are +110k. Goldman estimate is +125k with upside risk.
US: Monster employment index was 146 June vs 143 May and 141 a year ago.
Orders desk:

Offers: $1.4280, $1.4300/10, $1.4330/35, $1.4400, $1.4420/30
Bids: $1.4220, $1.4200, $1.4170/65, $1.4150, $1.4125/20

Canada: Jun employment +28.4k (May +22.3k)
  • Jun unemployment 7.4% (May 7.4%)
All five Italian banks involved in EU stress tests have passed.
UK: JPMorgan pushes back BOE rate hike call from now to February 2012
EUR/USD under pressure

Probes below $1.4280 as market react to reports that Italain bank UniCredit shares have been suspended limit down. Rate extends lows to support at $1.4265/60 ahead of $1.4230/20.

FTSE 6,055 +0.24 0.00%, CAC 3,985 +5.51 +0.14%, DAX 7,494 +22.87 +0.31%
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.4275, $1.4300, $1.4330, $1.4340, $1.4410, $1.4440
USD/JPY Y80.65, Y80.75, Y81.00, Y81.30(lge), Y82.00
EUR/JPY Y115.00, Y114.00
GBP/USD $1.6015, $1.5945, $1.5850
EUR/GBP stg0.8720
USD/CHF Chf0.8550
AUD/USD $1.0700, $1.0710, $1.0740, $1.0800, $1.0850, $1.0900


Extended highs through resistance at $1.5980/85 to $1.5987, but rate failed to hold gains and has eased back to $1.5977. Next resistance seen into $1.6000 with stronger interest between $1.6015/20. Support remains back at $1.5950 ahead of $1.5938/30.

UK Data: UK June Producer Output Prices +0.1% m/m; +5.7% y/y; June Producer Input Prices +0.4% m/m; +17% y/y
Asian session:

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current (Jun) 49.6
The yen headed for a weekly drop against most of its major peers before data that may show the U.S. added jobs for a ninth month and after German exports rose by more than forecast, reducing demand for haven currencies.
The yen is set for a third week of decline versus the dollar on prospects Japan’s economic recovery will lag behind that of the U.S. 
Australia’s currency was 0.1 percent from a two-month high as a global rally in stocks supported demand for higher-yielding assets. The euro fell this week against 15 of its 16 most-traded counterparts on concern more countries will be dragged into the region’s sovereign-debt crisis.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 105,000 in June after an advance of 54,000 in the prior month, according to the median estimate of economists in a survey before today’s report from the Labor Department. The unemployment rate probably stayed at 9.1 percent, according to a separate survey. 
The dollar’s advance versus the euro was curbed on speculation that the gain in jobs won’t be enough to spur the Federal Reserve to increase borrowing costs. The Federal Open Market Committee has kept its benchmark rate unchanged between zero and 0.25 percent since December 2008.
EUR/USD: the pair holds at $1,4330-$ 1,4370. 
GBP/USD: the pair holds at $1,5940-$ 1,5980. 
USD/JPY: the pair holds at Y81,20-Y81,30. 
UK data includes the Producer Price Index for June as well as the May Construction Output data released at 0830GMT. 
At 1230GMT, non-farm payrolls are expected to rise to 105,000 in June after a very modest 54,000 rise in May. Private payrolls are seen up 125,000. The unemployment rate is forecasted to fall a tenth to 9.0%. Hourly earnings are expected to dip to 0.2 % following a 0.3% jump in May, while the average workweek is forecast to hold steady at 34.4. US data continues at 1400GMT with Wholesale Inventories data. US data sees the 1900GMT release of both Consumer Credit for May and Treasury Allotments By Class for June. Consumer credit usage is expected to fall to $4.0 billion in May after increases in each of the last seven months. Retail sales fell 0.2% in the month, while non-auto retail sales rose 0.3%.

Asian stocks close:

Nikkei   10,138 +66.59 +0.66%  
Hang Seng  22,687 +156.86 +0.70%   
S&P/ASX   4,655 +49.18 +1.07%   
Shanghai Composite  2,798 +3.51 +0.13%

Forex: Thursday's review

The euro stemmed a two-day drop versus the dollar as European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet signaled more interest-rate increases after raising the benchmark to 1.5 percent.
The 17-member currency gained after Trichet said policy makers loosened collateral rules for Portuguese bonds to support local banks. 
ECB policy makers increased the target lending rate by a quarter-percentage point.
The ECB waived some of its collateral rules to provide a lifeline to Greek banks a year ago. While banks can currently obtain as much money as they need from the ECB for up to three months against eligible assets, including government bonds, policy makers had said they may no longer accept Greek debt as collateral if the country defaults.
Suspending the collateral rules for Portugal “does show that the ECB is willing to maintain liquidity in the market, yet it does expose the ECB to risks should we see haircuts” on defaulted bonds, said Jeremy Stretch, head of currency strategy at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce in London. “They are trying to be ahead of the game if Portugal’s bonds receive a default rating.”
The dollar dropped against most of its major counterparts as U.S. companies added more workers in June than economists forecast, damping demand for haven assets before the government’s payrolls report tomorrow.
Companies added 157,000 workers last month, ADP Employer Services reported today, surpassing the 70,000 forecast by 36 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Initial jobless claims fell by 14,000 to 418,000 in the week ended July 2, the Labor Department said today.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 105,000 in June after an advance of 54,000 in the prior month, according to the median estimate of 83 economists in a Bloomberg News survey before tomorrow’s payrolls report from the Labor Department. The unemployment rate probably stayed at 9.1 percent. 

The yen and Swiss franc were the biggest losers among major currencies as stocks and commodities rallied on U.S. employment reports, boosting demand for Brazil’s real and the Canadian dollar. 

EUR/USD: the pair shown low at $1,4220 area then grown and finished session in $1,4360  area.
GBP/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair decreased in $1,5970  area.
USD/JPY: on results of yesterday's session the pair grown in Y81,20  area.
UK data includes the Producer Price Index for June as well as the May Construction Output data released at 0830GMT. 
At 1230GMT, non-farm payrolls are expected to rise to 105,000 in June after a very modest 54,000 rise in May. Private payrolls are seen up 125,000. The unemployment rate is forecasted to fall a tenth to 9.0%. Hourly earnings are expected to dip to 0.2 % following a 0.3% jump in May, while the average workweek is forecast to hold steady at 34.4. US data continues at 1400GMT with Wholesale Inventories data. US data sees the 1900GMT release of both Consumer Credit for May and Treasury Allotments By Class for June. Consumer credit usage is expected to fall to $4.0 billion in May after increases in each of the last seven months. Retail sales fell 0.2% in the month, while non-auto retail sales rose 0.3%.

Stocks: Thursday's review

The Nikkei 225 (NKY) Stock Average slipped for the first time in eight days after the government’s top energy official said nuclear reactors may not be restarted until stress tests are completed, driving down utilities and sparking concern manufacturers may face power shortages.
Kansai Electric Power Co., a utility that generates almost half of its power with nuclear plants, sank 8.4 percent after Trade Minister Banri Kaieda said reactors will have to undergo more safety checks following the earthquake disaster that crippled Tokyo Electric Power Co.’s Fukushima Dai-Ichi plant. Nissan Motor Corp., one of many manufacturers required to cut power usage, led carmakers lower.

European stock-index futures advanced before a report that may show the number of Americans filing claims for jobless benefits fell.
ASML Holding NV (ASML) and Solvay SA (SOLB) may be active as UBS AG recommended buying both stocks. ThyssenKrupp AG (TKA) might fall as Germany’s largest steelmaker said it plans to raise as much as 1.68 billion euros ($2.4 billion) in a share sale to help it reduce debt. Man Group Plc (EMG) may move after reporting increased funds under management.
The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped 0.3 percent yesterday, snapping the longest winning streak in two months, as China raised interest rates and Moody’s Investors Service cut Portugal’s credit rating to junk. The measure has fallen 5.6 percent from its February high amid speculation the region’s fiscal crisis will derail the economic recovery.
The number of Americans making initial claims for jobless benefits fell to 420,000 last week from 428,000 the prior period, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists. The data comes a day before the Labor Department’s monthly payrolls report.
European stocks extended their advance as European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the bank will suspend collateral rules for Portugal.

U.S. stocks jumped, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to an almost two-month high, as retail and job market data bolstered confidence in the economy.
Target Corp. (TGT), the second-largest U.S. discount retailer, and Kohl’s Corp. (KSS) rose at least 6.8 percent as June retail sales surpassed analysts’ projections. Urban Outfitters Inc. (URBN) rallied 6.9 percent to lead gains in the S&P 500 after Morgan Stanley recommended investors buy the shares. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) climbed 2.4 percent as banking shares soared.
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) climbed 1.3 percent to 1,356.16 at 2:37 p.m. in New York, its highest level since May 10 on a closing basis. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 125.98 points, or 1 percent, to 12,752, as a report by ADP Employer Services showed U.S. companies added more jobs than forecast in June.
U.S. stocks rose yesterday as gains in transportation and consumer-staple companies overshadowed a slowdown in service- industry growth and China’s interest-rate increase. The S&P 500 climbed 5.6 percent last week, its biggest weekly advance since July 2009.

Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3: Y82.20 (May 19, 24-25 high) 

Resistance 2: Y81.80 (May 31 high) 
Resistance 1: Y81.40 (Jul 7 high) 
Current price: Y81.26
Support 1:Y81.20 (session low)  
Support 2:Y80.75 (Jul 6-7 low)  
Support 3:Y80.50 (Jul 4 low)  
Comments: the pair holds at reached yesterday high. The innediate resistance - Y81.40. Above growth is possible to Y81.80. The immediate support - Y81.20. Below losses are possible to Y80.75. 

Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.8520 (Jul 5 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.8500 (area of Jul 7 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.8460 (session high)
Current price: Chf0.8449
Support 1: Chf0.8440 (session low)
Support 2: Chf0.8380 (area of Jul 5-7 low)
Support 3: Chf0.8300 (Jul 30 low)
Comments: the pair holds in a narrow range. The immediate support - Chf0.8440. Below loss may extend to Chf0.8380. The immediate resistance Chf0.8460. Above is located Chf0.8500. 

Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6090 (Jul 6 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.6030 (Jul 7 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.5980 (session high)
Current price: $1.5947
Support 1 : $1.5940 (area of Jul 6-7 low and a session low)
Support 2 : $1.5910 (Jun 27-28 low)
Support 3 : $1.5890 (61.8 % FIBO $1.5340-$ 1.6750)
Comments: the pair decreases. The immediate support $1.5940. Below  decrease is  possible to $1.5910. The immediate resistance - $1.5980. Above growth is possbble to $1.6030.  

Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.4470 (Jul 6 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.4400 (area of Jul 5 low)
Resistance 1: $ 1.4370 (high of american session on Jul 6, Jul 7 high, session high)
Current price: $1.4337
Support 1 : $1.4330 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.4220 (Jul 7 low)
Support 3 : $1.4180 (support line from May 23)

Comments: the pair decreased at the morning. The imediaye support - $1,4330. Below losses are possible to $1.4220. The immediate resistance $1.4370. Above growth is possible to $1,4400. 

GERMANY DATA: May seasonally adjusted trade surplus was E12.8 billion, after a revised E11.9 billion surplus in April
Schedule for today, Friday, Jul'08'2011:

06:00 Germany  Current account (May) unadjusted, bln 7.0 8.8
06:00 Germany Trade balance (May) unadjusted, bln 11.0 10.9
08:30 UK PPI (Output) (June) unadjusted 0.1% 0.2%
08:30 UK PPI (Output) (June) unadjusted Y/Y 5.5% 5.3%
08:30 UK PPI Output ex FDT (June) adjusted - 0.2%
08:30 UK PPI Output ex FDT (June) unadjusted Y/Y - 3.4%
08:30 UK PPI (Input) (June) adjusted 0.0% -2.0%
08:30 UK PPI (Input) (June) unadjusted Y/Y 16.2% 15.7%
11:00 Canada Employment (June) +10K +22.3K
11:00 Canada Unemployment rate (June) 7.4% 7.4%
12:30 USA Nonfarm payrolls (June) +90K +54K
12:30 USA Unemployment rate (June) 9.1% 9.1%
12:30 USA Average hourly earnings (June) - 0.3%
12:30 USA Average workweek (June) - 34.4
14:00 USA Wholesale inventories (May) 0.6% 0.8%
19:00 USA Consumer credit (May), bln 5.0 6.2

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