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08.04.2011
18:33
USD/JPY quickly choped to below Y84.70 area as earlier noted bids to that area are filled. Rate evidently flushing some undisclosed stops below the overnight low.
18:27
Dow -15.25 at 12394.24, Nasdaq -5.68 at 2790.46, S&P -1.70 at 1331.81

Listless trade continues to keep the stock market clinging closely to the neutral line. That is why the S&P 500 is on pace to conclude the week in line with where it started.
The dollar's drop has helped bolster commodities, which continue to climb. As such, the GS Commodity Index is up 1.9%.

18:05
US focus: Dollar falls on Budget theme

The dollar dropped against most of its major counterparts as lawmakers failed to agree on a federal budget, increasing the likelihood of a government shutdown, and as signs of global growth damped demand for haven assets.
The euro reached an almost 15-month high versus the dollar after a report showing German exports rose the most in five months, boosting bets that policy makers will lift interest rates further to curb inflation.
“The main driver behind dollar weakness today is the market concern about a government shutdown,” said Paresh Upadhyaya at Bank of America Corp.
Leaders in Congress remained divided about a budget, hours away from potentially the first U.S. government shutdown in 15 years.

Europe’s currency has rallied 7.8% against the dollar this year as economic growth in Germany and accelerating consumer prices in the euro region boosted expectations that interest rates will need to rise to curb inflation, which reached a two-year high of 2.6% in March.
A report showed German exports jumped 2.7% in February from a month earlier, when they dropped 1%. That was the biggest month-on-month increase since September and above the 2% median estimate.
The ECB’s decision to raise its main rate yesterday comes as the central banks of other developed nations, including the U.S. and Japan, keep borrowing costs near zero to support their economies as they recover from the financial crisis.
The Fed isn’t expected to raise its target funds rate until the first quarter of 2012 and the Bank of Japan will probably keep borrowing costs on hold for the next 12 months, the median estimates in two Bloomberg surveys show.
The yen headed for a fourth weekly drop versus the euro, the longest losing streak in 20 months, on speculation the BOJ will continue with accommodative monetary policy to help its economy recover from a record earthquake on March 11.
The BOJ yesterday unveiled a 1 trillion yen, one-year loan program to companies affected by the quake and tsunami as board members downgraded their economic assessment for the first time since October.

17:39
OIL: Holding solid gains on the day, is up $2.05 at $112.35, in the upper reaches of the day's $110.11/112.41 session range.
17:37
EU's Olli Rehn says funding to be 2/3 Europe, 1/3 IMF.
17:36
EU's Olli Rehn says Portugal aid to be discussed in Washington next week (World Bank/IMF meetings)
16:51
US CORPORATES/STOCKS: Earnings season kicks off Monday with an announcement from Alcoa, Inc. (AA), with general market sentiment estimates $0.27 per share earning.
16:32
Dow -10.40 at 12399.09, Nasdaq -2.70 at 2793.44, S&P -0.26 at 1333.25

BJ's Wholesale (BJ 50.21, +0.83) reported yesterday that same-store sales for March increased by more than 5%, which is greater than what had been widely expected. Although it finished off of its session high, the stock was able to put together a solid gain yesterday. Today it has added to that advance with help from an analyst upgrade at Goldman Sachs.
In contrast, Costco (COST 76.92, -0.90) is under considerable pressure after analysts at Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock. Costco actually reported yesterday a stronger-than-expected 13% increase in same-store sales for March. That news helped the stock score a record high in the prior session.

16:13
EUR/USD weakens

EUR/USD weakens and currently holds around $1.4422 area after the European close. Earlier rate printed session high on $1.4445. Budget wrangling ongoing in the US, some think that an agreement may give the dollar some respite. Offers and stops clustered around $1.4450.

14:45
Oil retreats

WTI Crude off the day's highs around $111.88 with a fall over the last hour to $111.01 before settling around $111.30/35. The move seen as some profit taking ahead of the weekend. Resistance remaining at $112.94 with support at $110.09 and $109.66.



14:23
FED'S FISHER: "many risks" to FED "overstaying" monetary accommodation
14:20
Dow +10.26 at 12419.60, Nasdaq +2.40 at 2798.54, S&P +2.29 at 1335.80
14:00
US: Feb wholesale inv +1.0%
13:57
Dow +22.78 at 12432.27, Nasdaq +8.12 at 2804.26, S&P +3.74 at 1337.25

Support for stocks has moderated in the first few minutes of trade, causing the major equity averages to give back some of their opening gains. The early pullback has impacted almost every major sector, except health care and energy. They are up 0.5% and 0.7%, respectively.
Treasuries are still under pressure. As a result of renewed selling interest, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note set a new one-month high near 3.60% this morning.

13:18
Before the bell: Stocks set to continue rebound

U.S. stocks were headed for a slightly higher open Friday, as oil and gold prices spiked and investors awaited news about the pending government shutdown.


Oil prices rose as high as $111.90 a barrel Friday, a day after Japan was hit with another earthquake.
Precious metals also rallied, with gold hitting an intraday record of $1,472.60 an ounce.
Government shutdown The federal government faces a shutdown in less than 24 hours unless Congress and the White House reach agreement on a budget for the remainder of fiscal 2011 by midnight
Companies: Shares of Expedia (EXPE) surged 13% in premarket trading. The travel site operator announced late Thursday that it planned to split itself into two companies. One for TripAdvisor and another for the other Expedia businesses, which include Hotels.com and Hotwire.
Economy: Investors will get February wholesale inventories figures from the Commerce Department at 14:00GMT.
Economists expect a rise of 1% versus 1.1% in January.
World markets:

The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell, pushing the yield up to 3.59% from 3.55% late Thursday

13:01
Orders desk:

EUR/USD
Offers: $1.4430/35, $1.4450/55, $1.4480, $1.4500
Bids: $1.4350/40, $1.4325/20

12:37
EU REHN: Portugal program likely to total around E80bln
  • But size of Portugal plan depends on many factors;
  • Portugal program most likely three years.
12:20
European session:

The euro gained versus the dollar, extending a second weekly advance, after a report showing German exports rose the most in five months boosted bets that policy makers will lift interest rates further to curb inflation.
A report today showed German exports jumped 2.7 percent in February from a month earlier, when they dropped 1 percent. That was the biggest month-on-month increase since September.
“You can’t ignore the yield story with the euro,” said Chris Walker, a foreign-exchange strategist at UBS AG in London. “The incentive for the ECB to raise rates is going to keep the euro supported. The main justification for rate hikes in the euro zone has been that the German economy is motoring ahead.”
 The European Central Bank yesterday raised its main refinancing rate to 1.25 percent from a record-low 1 percent and left the door open for further increases.
The ECB’s decision to raise its main rate yesterday comes as the central banks of other developed nations, including the U.S. and Japan, keep borrowing costs near zero to support their economies as they recover from the financial crisis. The Federal Reserve is not expected to raise its target funds rate until the first quarter of 2012 and the Bank of Japan will probably keep borrowing costs on hold for the next 12 months, the median estimates in two Bloomberg surveys show.


EUR/USD: trades above $1.4400.

GBP/USD: posted session high at $1.6425, before eased back to $1.6340.
USD/JPY: traded within Y84.85-Y85.40.


USA Wholesale inventories data are due at 14:00 GMT.

12:15
Canada Housing Starts +2.8% In Mar
11:42
Oil posted a new 2 year high of $111.88. The next level of resistance seen at $112.94.
11:32
EU JUNCKER: Portgual aid based on fiscal adjustment, growth reforms
11:20
RBS change its Bank of England rate forecast

RBS has changed its Bank of England rate forecast and now look for the first move in August in the wake of UK construction output data. RBS previously looked for a hike in May. "Today's ONS construction data show that not only have the downside risks to Q1 GDP that we flagged in our previous Tracker (6 April) crystallised, but the underlying data appear dramatically weaker than previously assumed", said RBS.

11:01
CANADA: Mar employment -1.5k (Feb +15.1k)
  • Mar unemployment 7.7% (Feb 7.8%)
10:42
GBP/USD under pressure

Bids are now tested at $1.6360. Stops are seen in place below $1.6350. Break lower will open the way to $1.6310, ahead of the stronger support around April 6-7 base $1.6260/55.  Offers seen at $1.6415, a break to expose earlier highs at $1.6430. Stops noted above $1.6445, which if triggered brings the 2010 high at $1.6459 into view. More stops noted above $1.6460.


09:54
Gold sitting just under the new all time high set earlier at $1470.65, with silver also just under the fresh 31 yr high of $40.25 set this morning.

Metals are continuing to post fresh highs on a weaker dollar, inflation concerns following the rapid rise of Crude oil prices, and safe-haven investment.

09:24
ECB TUMPEL-GUGERELL: euro has confidence of investors, citizens
  • Stresses 'solidarity is not a one-way-street'
  • Countries must conduct solid econ, fiscal policies
  • Eu reforms don't go far enough
  • Need tougher sanctions when fiscal rules breached
09:14
FTSE +0.73% 6,051, CAC +0.81% 4,061, DAX +0.53% 7,217
08:49
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.4400, $1.4325, $1.4315, $1.4300, $1.4215
USD/JPY Y85.50, Y85.00, Y84.80, Y84.00
EUR/JPY Y118.50
GBP/USD $1.6200
AUD/USD  $1.0480, $1.0475, $1.0370, $1.0360


08:33
UK DATA: Mar producer output prices +0.9% m/m; +5.4% y/y; Mar producer input prices +3.7% m/m; +14.6% y/y
08:25
Asian stocks close

Hang Seng +0.47% 24,396.07

Shanghai Composite +0.74% 3,030.02
Nikkei +1.85% 9,768

08:07
Asian session: The yen and dollar fell

 

The yen and dollar fell against most major peers as stocks rose before data forecast to show German exports and U.K. producer prices increased, adding to signs the global recovery is gaining momentum.
The yen extended a fourth weekly drop versus the euro, the longest losing streak in 20 months, as quickening growth elsewhere in the world contrasted with Japan’s efforts to rebuild after last month’s record earthquake. 
The euro reached the strongest versus the dollar since January 2010 on speculation the European Central Bank will raise interest rates further after yesterday’s increase.
The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback versus the currencies of six major trading partners, including the pound and Canadian dollar, sank to as low as 75.184, the least since December 2009.

 

EUR/USD: the pair become stronger above a mark $1.4400.
GBP/USD: the pair become stronger above a mark $1.6400.
USD/JPY: the pair bargained within the limits of Y84.85-Y85.40.


UK data dominates the calendar with producer prices, which are released at 0830GMT along with Construction Output data. Input prices are expected to rise markedly, by 2.1% on the month, but base effects would result in the year on year increase declining to 12.6% from February's 14.6%. Output prices in today's data are expected to rise 0.6% on the month to stand 5.1% above levels a year earlier, while core data is forecast at 0.3% m/m, 2.9% y/y.

 

07:58
Forex: Thursday's review

The euro remain near its highest level in more than a year after European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet said today’s interest-rate increase wasn’t necessarily the “first of a series.” 
The ECB raised its key rate by 25 basis points to 1.25 percent. 
The euro eased a bit versus its major peers after Portugal’s Prime Minister, Jose Socrates, said yesterday the nation was seeking financial assistance from the European Union.
Portugal plans to make a formal written request to the European Commission for financial aid, government minister Pedro Silva Pereira said in Lisbon. A rescue package for Portugal may be worth as much as 75 billion euros ($107 billion), two European officials with knowledge of the situation said.
The yen strengthened against the dollar after reports of a 7.4 magnitude earthquake off Japan’s coast and tsunami warnings. 

EUR/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1.4240-$ 1.4350.
GBP/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1.6260-$ 1.6350.
USD/JPY: on results of yesterday's session the pair decreased in around Y85.00.
UK data dominates the calendar with producer prices, which are released at 0830GMT along with Construction Output data. Input prices are expected to rise markedly, by 2.1% on the month, but base effects would result in the year on year increase declining to 12.6% from February's 14.6%. Output prices in today's data are expected to rise 0.6% on the month to stand 5.1% above levels a year earlier, while core data is forecast at 0.3% m/m, 2.9% y/y.

07:51
Stocks: Thursday's review

Japanese stocks pared gains after the Bank of Japan said it would keep a credit program and asset- purchase fund unchanged following the nation’s worst earthquake.
Fast Retailing Co., Asia’s biggest clothing chain, fell 0.1 percent, reversing an earlier gain of as much as 0.9 percent. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. (8306), Japan’s largest listed lender, advanced 2.4 percent. Toyota Motor Corp. (7203), the world’s No. 1 carmaker, gained 0.9 percent. Tokyo Electric Power Co., operator of the nuclear-power plant damaged by the March 11 temblor and tsunami, increased 0.9 percent.
European stocks fell for the first time in five days after a 7.1-magnitude earthquake struck off the coast of Japan and as the European Central Bank raised interest rates for the first time in almost three years.
Hochtief AG (HOT) tumbled 7.9 percent after Germany’s biggest builder warned of losses at its Australian unit. Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW) led auto-industry shares lower. Halfords Group Plc (HFD) sank the most in six months after the U.K. retailer said profit may miss estimates. Banks limited the selloff after Portugal sought a bailout from the European Union.
U.S. stocks fell, dragging the Dow Jones Industrial Average down from an almost three-year high, as another earthquake shook Japan and a dispute over the federal budget threatened to shut down the American government.
General Electric Co. (GE), Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) and Alcoa Inc. (AA) lost at least 1.2 percent to lead declines in the Dow. The iShares MSCI Japan Index Fund (EWJ), an exchange-traded security tracking the nation’s equities, dropped 0.8 percent after retreating as much as 1.7 percent. Gap Inc. (GPS) declined 1.4 percent after the largest U.S. apparel chain reported a 10 percent slump
The S&P 500 rose 6.2 percent in 2011 through yesterday as government stimulus measures, corporate takeovers and higher- than-estimated profits boosted investors’ optimism. The benchmark gauge fell on April 5 as minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting spurred speculation central bankers may begin removing record stimulus measures enacted to ensure the economy recovered from recession.
Crude rose above $110 a barrel for the first time in 30 months as a fire burned at Libya’s Sarir field, bolstering concern that unrest in North Africa and the Middle East will spread, curbing shipments.

07:19
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3:Y84.50 (Aug 13 high) 
Resistance 2:Y85.90 (Sep 16-17 high) 
Resistance 1:Y85.50 (Apr 6 high) 
Current price: Y85.13
Support 1:Y84.60 (Apr 7 low)    
Support 2:Y83.80 (Apr 4 low)    
Support 3:Y82.50 (Mar 31 low)    
Comments: essential changes hasn't occured. The nearest support - Y84,60. Below losses are possible to Y83.80. The nearest resistance - Y85.50. Above growth is possible to Y85.90. 

06:53
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9340 (Apr 1 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9290 (Apr 6 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9200 (Apr 7 high)
Current price: Chf0.9171
Support 1: Chf0.9100 (session low)
Support 2: Chf0.9030 (Mar 24 low)
Support 3: Chf0.8980 (Mar 23 low)
Comments: the pair decreased. The nearest support - Chf0,9100. Below loss may extend to Chf0.9030. The nearest resistance - Chf0.9200. Above is located Chf0.9290. 

06:48
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6720 (high of Dec'2009)
Resistance 2: $ 1.6460 (high of Jan'2010)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6400 (Mar 22 high)
Current price: $1.6378
Support 1 : $1.6360 (Apr 6 high)
Support 2 : $1.6255 (Apr 6-7 low)
Support 3 : $1.6180 (Apr 4 low)
Comments: the pair grown. The nearest resistance - around $1.6400. Above growth is possible to $1.6460. The nearest support $1.6360. Below is possible testings of around $1.6255. 

06:29
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.4780 (around of Dec 9-11'2009 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.4580 (high of 2010)
Resistance 1: $ 1.4410 (Jan 19'2010 high)
Current price: $1.4393
Support 1 : $1.4350 (Apr 6 high)
Support 2 : $1.4240 (Apr 7 low)
Support 3 : $1.4150 (Apr 5 low, support line from Jan 10)
Comments: the pair become stronger. The nearest resistance - $1.4410. Above growth is possible  to $1,4580. The nearest support $1,4350. Below losses up to $1.4240 are possible.  

05:25
Schedule for today, Friday, Apr 08 2011:

05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report (April)  
06:00 Germany Current account (February) unadjusted, bln 12.0 7.2
06:00 Germany Trade balance (February) unadjusted, bln 13.0 10.1
08:30 UK PPI (Output) (March) unadjusted 0.6% 0.5%
08:30 UK PPI (Output) (March) unadjusted Y/Y 5.1% 5.3%
08:30 UK PPI Output ex FDT (March) adjusted 0.3% 0.1%
08:30 UK PPI Output ex FDT (March) unadjusted Y/Y - 3.1%
08:30 UK PPI (Input) (March) adjusted 0.8% 1.1%
08:30 UK PPI (Input) (March) unadjusted Y/Y 11.1% 14.6%
12:00 Canada Employment (March) 28.0 +15.1
12:00 Canada Unemployment rate (March) 7.7% 7.8%
14:00 USA Wholesale inventories (February) 1.2% 1.1%

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