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08.03.2011
20:17
Dow +148.12 at 12238.15, Nasdaq +24.65 at 2770.28, S&P +13.56 at 1323.69

Stocks have recovered from a recent slip so that the S&P 500 is now back near its session high. Financials continue to provide leadership as they sport a gain in excess of 2%.
Within the 81-member financial sector, only IntercontinentalExchange (ICE 131.76, -2.96), Assurant (AIZ 38.50, -0.55), and NYSE Euronext (NYX 35.15, -0.44) are in the red. Bank of America (BAC 14.64, +0.61) is still a primary leader in the financial space.

18:49
American focus: dollar gains across the board

The euro fell the most in two weeks against the dollar as concern the region’s leaders won’t agree on a solution to its debt crisis damped appetite for its assets.
The 17-nation currency retreated from almost the strongest level in nine months against the yen. Financing costs rose as Greece sold 1.625 billion euros ($2.3 billion) of treasury bills a day after having its credit rating cut by Moody’s Investors Service.
“It’s a combination of overextended speculative positioning and renewed sovereign-debt jitters,” said Vassili Serebriakov, a currency strategist at Wells Fargo & Co. in New York. “The post-ECB rally has gone too far too fast and the euro is coming back to the reality of still very uncertain prospects for the peripheral economies.”
The euro, which has risen 3.9 percent against the dollar this year, has struggled to extend its advance beyond $1.40 as European Union leaders clashed about how to deal with the sovereign-debt crisis that forced Ireland and Greece to seek financial aid last year. The 27-nation EU intends to approve a “comprehensive” package of measures at a March 24-25 summit in a bid to calm bond markets.
Austria opposes easing conditions of bailouts sought by Ireland and Greece, Chancellor Werner Faymann told reporters today in Vienna.

16:46
Dow +73.61 at 12163.64, Nasdaq +14.78 at 2760.48, S&P +7.38 at 1317.51

The Nasdaq had lagged both the Dow and S&P 500 in the early going, but it has since caught up with counterparts so that all three of the major headline indices sport strong gains. Large-cap tech issues, which had been weak at the onset of trade, are now in strong shape. As such, Oracle (ORCL 32.55, +0.45), Google (GOOG 595.34, +3.68), and Microsoft (MSFT 25.86, +0.14) are leaders.
The recent broad market bounce and pullback in oil prices have helped airline socks ascend to a 3.6% gain, as measured by the Amex Airline Index. In a similar vein, the Dow Jones Transports Index is up 2.0%.

16:30
Option expiries for today's 1500GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.3850(lge), $1.3835, $1.3830, $1.3900
USD/JPY Y82.00, Y82.25, Y82.50, Y83.00, Y83.50
EUR/JPY Y114.00
GBP/USD $1.6200
AUD/USD $1.0050, $1.0060, $1.0080, $1.0100, $1.0110, $1.0125
AUD/NZD NZ$1.3560

15:32
Dow +29.67 at 12119.47, Nasdaq +0.93 at 2746.56, S&P +2.84 at 1312.97

Financial stocks have run ahead to a collective 1.2% gain. Bank of America (BAC 14.22, +0.19) has been a leader in the move, but regional plays Regions Financial (RF 7.48, +0.07) and PNC Financial (PNC 61.67, +0.97) have complemented the effort.
Leadership from the financial sector has helped lift the broader market out of negative territory. Recent pressure against oil prices has also been a catalyst for broad market buying.

15:28
Orders desk:

EUR/USD
Offers: $1.3930, $1.3940/45, $1.3980/85, $1.3990/4000, $1.4035/50
Bids: $1.3880, $1.3865/60, $1.3835/30

USD/JPY
Offers: Y82.80, Y83.00/05, Y83.50
Bids: Y82.00, Y81.50

15:26
Dow -11.05 at 12077.70, Nasdaq -12.08 at 2732.70, S&P -2.95 at 1307.18

As of the first few minutes of trade, the Nasdaq is underperforming its counterparts for the second straight session. Its weakness stems largely from losses among large-cap tech issues as well as renewed selling interest against semiconductor stocks (-0.8%).
Energy stocks have been hit with some of the stiffest selling pressure, though. The sector is already down 1.1%. Pressure therein is largely the result of a recent downturn in oil prices, which are now at $104 per barrel with a 1.3% loss.
Financials are showing strength, however. The sector is up to an enviable 0.6% gain as bank stocks and diversified financial services plays attract bidders.

14:41
Saudi oil minister says emirate has 3.5m bpd of spare capacity
14:17
Before the bell:

U.S. stocks were set for a mixed open Tuesday, following a broad retreat in the previous session, as oil prices eased.


Investors are keeping a close eye on developments out of Libya and oil prices, which have surged lately. Earlier this morning, oil fell after reports said Moammar Gadhafi is trying to strike a deal with opposition leaders to step down and flee the country safely.
Meanwhile, gold prices rose $1.70 to $1,436.20 an ounce. Gold settled at a fresh record high of $1,434.50 an ounce Monday, as investors sought safety in the precious metal.
With no economic data on the agenda, investors are likely to remain focused on geopolitical developments and oil prices.
Companies: Urban Outfitters (URBN) shares fell 12% in pre-market trading, after the retailer reported profit that widely missed forecasts, saying its margins were hit by increased markdowns.
Starbucks (SBUX) begins rolling out its new logo Tuesday, as the coffee company celebrates its 40th anniversary this week. Starbucks shares were unchanged in premarket trading.
Morgan Stanley (MS) is considering dropping the Smith Barney name from its brokerage business, according to sources cited in the Wall Street Journal.
Boston Beer (SAM), the maker of Samuel Adams beer, and retailer J. Crew (JCRW) are scheduled to release quarterly results after the closing bell.
World markets:

14:05
April WTI continuing to hover around the $105.00 level but April ICE Brent giving back some gains and closing the premium over WTI down towards $9. Brent crude currently trading around $114.15 with WTI at $105.10.
13:48
ECB WEBER: INTEREST RATES MOVE WARRANTED, MUST ACT EARLY
  • WON'T CORRECT MKT EXPECT OF 1.75% ECB RATE BY YEAR-END;
  • MARKETS UNDERSTOOD ECB RATE SIGNAL WELL;
  • EMU INFLATION RISKS ARE CLEARLY ON THE UPSIDE;
  • PRESS PRESSURES COULD BE MORE PERMANENT, FUNDAMENTAL;
  • "DON'T FULLY SUBSCRIBE" TO OIL PRICES FALLING BACK;
  • GERMAN CONTRIBUTION COULD BOOST INFL PRESSURE IN FUTURE;
  • SHLD RESUME LIQUIDITY EXIT IF MKT CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
13:14
ECB WEBER: INTEREST RATES MOVE WARRANTED, MUST ACT EARLY
  • WON'T CORRECT MKT EXPECT OF 1.75% ECB RATE BY YEAR-END;
  • MARKETS UNDERSTOOD ECB RATE SIGNAL WELL;
  • EMU INFLATION RISKS ARE CLEARLY ON THE UPSIDE;
  • PRESS PRESSURES COULD BE MORE PERMANENT, FUNDAMENTAL;
  • "DON'T FULLY SUBSCRIBE" TO OIL PRICES FALLING BACK;
  • GERMAN CONTRIBUTION COULD BOOST INFL PRESSURE IN FUTURE;
  • SHLD RESUME LIQUIDITY EXIT IF MKT CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
13:01
European session: The euro fell

Data:
06:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate n.s.a (MoM) (Feb) 3.6%
11:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (Jan) 2.9% 

The euro fell against the dollar as the bonds of Europe’s most highly indebted countries declined relative to those of Germany, amid concern the region’s leaders won’t agree to a comprehensive solution to its debt crisis.
Europe’s common currency retreated from the strongest level in nine months against the yen. Greece is scheduled to auction 1.25 billion euros ($1.74 billion) of 182-day bills today, while Spain hired banks to sell 15-year bonds, according to a banker involved in the deal. The Swiss franc declined as oil fell for the first time in three days and stocks rose, curbing demand for the currency as a haven. 
“There is a risk that events in the euro zone will tilt the balance” for the currency, said Neil Mellor, a London-based strategist at Bank of New York Mellon Corp. “The tensions are still there. I wouldn’t want to be particularly long the euro at the moment.” A long position is a bet that the price of a currency or security will rise.
The euro, which has risen 4.1 percent against the dollar this year, has struggled to extend its advance beyond $1.40 as European Union leaders have had trouble coming up with a package of measures to deal with a sovereign debt crisis that forced Ireland and Greece to seek financial aid last year. Leaders are due to meet in Brussels later this month.

EUR/USD: the pair come nearer to support in the field of $1,3900.
GBP/USD: the pair  decreased in around $1,6170.
USD/JPY: the pair become stronger in around Y82,60.
Canada releases Housing Starts data for Feb at 13:15 GMT

12:16
EUR/USD:

Marked lows at $1.3912 before recovering back, spec shorts covering ahead of the NY open. Rate currently trades around $1.3930. Next support of noted seen between $1.3900/1.3890.

12:00
Goldman sees downside risks to their Q1 US GDP estimate

Goldman sees downside risks to their Q1 US GDP estimate of +3-1/2%, "with weak personal consumption and capital goods orders in January, as well as fairly sluggish growth in hours worked in Q1 so 
far." But those are likely to reflect weather distortions. Goldman sees issues ahead of higher oil and fiscal restraint, says "maximum impact of oil on growth occurrs with a lag of 3-4 quarters, which would point to 
a peak impact in late 2011." JPM says data are turning mixed and they  also are trimming forecasts.

11:07
GERMANY: Jan real sa mfg orders +2.9% m/m, +20.9% yy
09:56
NOWOTNY: Reported comments from ECB board member

  • Some global interest rates too low for some
  • Financial innovations a cause of financial crisis.
  • Too much belief in infallibility of markets.
  • Should be careful not to over-regulate post crisis.

09:39
European stocks rose

European stocks rose as oil fell for the first time in three days and as investors awaited a report that may show German factory orders rebounded in January. 
At the moment:
FTSE  +17.12  +0.29% 5,990.90
CAC  +15.44  +0.39% 4,005.85
Dax +56.34  +0.79% 7,218.27

09:30
Option expiries for today's 1500GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.3830, $1.3835, $1.3900, $1.3990, $1.4000, $1.4020, 
USD/JPY Y82.00, Y82.50, Y83.00, Y83.50
EUR/JPY Y114.00, Y113.00
GBP/USD $1.6200
AUD/USD $1.0050, $1.0060, $1.0080, $1.0100, $1.0110, $1.0125
AUD/NZD NZ$1.3560

09:00
Asian session: The euro gained

 

The euro approached a four-month high versus the dollar before data forecast to show a rebound in German factory orders, backing the case for the European Central Bank to raise interest rates before the Federal Reserve.
Europe’s single currency gained on prospects an ECB official will today reiterate willingness to increase borrowing costs as early as next month. 
Factory orders in Germany, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, climbed 2.5 percent from December, when they slid 3.4 percent, the Economy Ministry in Berlin will probably say today according to economists in a survey.

 

EUR/USD: the pair shown high in the field of $1,3990 then decreased.
GBP/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1,6180-$ 1,6200.
USD/JPY: the pair  become stronger in around Y82,40.


Germany releases factory orders data for Jan at 11:00 GMT.

 

08:40
Forex: Monday's review

The euro’s two-month rally against the dollar is running into renewed rifts over Europe’s sovereign debt crisis just as optimism about the U.S. economy increases.
Bolstered by the prospect of higher European Central Bank interest rates as soon as next month, the euro has appreciated almost 9% against the dollar from this year’s low. Bets by futures traders on more strength are at levels that indicated reversals in the past. 
Moody’s Investors Service today cut Greece’s government bond ratings by three steps to B1 from Ba1, and assigned them a negative outlook, meaning they are more likely to be downgraded further than be raised them or kept unchanged. 
Portuguese bond yields have risen to levels that preceded last year’s bailouts of Ireland and Greece, both of which are trying to renegotiate terms of their rescues. 
Strength in the euro has focused on the dollar as Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke shows no signs of raising borrowing costs even though the economy is strengthening.
Growth in the U.S. will total 3.2% this year. The European Commission raised its growth forecast to 1.7% last week and said higher oil and commodity prices may keep inflation above the ECB’s 2% limit for most of the year. 
Speculators have become so bullish on the euro that past trading trends suggest they may start reversing those bets. The number of contracts that hedge funds and other large speculators hold at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange anticipating a gain in the single currency jumped to 51,308 as of March 4, according to the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The last time so-called net longs exceeded 45,000 contracts was in October. The following month the euro weakened 6.9% against the dollar. They also topped the 45,000 mark a year earlier, just before the currency began about a six-month, 21% decline. 

EUR/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1,3950-$ 1,4030.
GBP/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair decreased in around $1,6200.
USD/JPY: the pair bargained within the limits of Y81,90-Y82,40.

08:33
Stocks: Monday's review

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average sank 1.8 percent after foreign minister Seiji Maehara quit over an illegal donation, hurting Prime Minister Naoto Kan’s battle to fund Japan’s budget and avoid calls for an early election.
Kajima Corp. dropped 2.3 percent to 209 yen in Tokyo after Kyodo News reported that the company and its partners may incur a loss of more than 80 billion yen as a highway project in Algeria didn’t proceed as planned and costs rose.
Among its partners, Taisei Corp. dropped 1.1 percent to 185 yen, Nishimatsu Construction Co. lost 1.8 percent to 112 yen and Hazama Corp. slid 2.6 percent to 74 yen.
Exporters declined on speculation surging oil prices and growing unrest in the Middle East and North Africa will cut global demand for goods and services.
Honda Motor Co., which counts the U.S. as its biggest market, sank 3.1 percent to 3,435 yen in Tokyo. Sony Corp., the maker of Bravia of televisions and PlayStation game consoles, lost 1.8 percent to 2,926 yen.

Most European stocks declined as oil climbed above $105 a barrel amid escalating violence in Libya, while takeover activity boosted Bulgari SpA and Tognum AG.
Inmarsat Plc dropped 13 percent as sales missed estimates. Bulgari soared 59 percent after LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA agreed to buy the world’s third-largest jeweller for about 3.7 billion euros ($5.2 billion).
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped 0.4 percent to 280.73 at the close in London. The gauge has declined 3.6 percent from this year’s highest level reached Feb. 17 as concern grew about unrest in the Middle East and European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said he may increase interest rates.

U.S. stocks slid, erasing last week’s advance, as escalating violence in Libya sent oil higher and chipmakers tumbled after Wells Fargo & Co. reduced its recommendation on the industry.
Intel Corp., the world’s largest chipmaker, slid 2.1 percent following Wells Fargo’s downgrade, while Micron Technology Inc. lost 5.9 percent. JDS Uniphase Corp. fell the most in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index after competitor Ciena Corp.’s revenue forecast missed analysts’ estimates. Alcoa Inc., Walt Disney Co. and Boeing Co. lost at least 2.4 percent to lead declines in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
The S&P 500 tumbled 1.2 percent to 1,305.36 at 1:08 p.m. in New York after climbing 0.5 percent earlier. The Dow declined 119.39 points, or 1 percent, to 12,050.49. Oil for April delivery surged 1.4 percent at $105.85 a barrel.
The S&P 500 fell 0.7 percent on March 4, trimming a weekly advance, as the surge in oil fueled concern consumer spending may slow as Labor Department data showed average hourly earnings were unchanged last month.
The S&P 500 has lost 2.7 percent from a 32-month high on Feb. 18 amid concern higher energy prices will hurt consumer spending and corporate profits. The index is still up 93 percent from its bear-market low almost two years ago as improving corporate profits, government stimulus efforts and takeovers fueled confidence in equities.
Oil rose to a 29-month high as escalating violence in Libya bolstered concern that supply disruptions may spread through the Middle East. Crude climbed as much as 2.4 percent after fighting between Libyan rebels and troops loyal to Muammar Qaddafi intensified. Hedge funds raised purchases of futures to a record for a second week on speculation unrest will cut output further. Citigroup Inc. increased its Brent oil price estimate, saying the threat of more disruptions supports a “fear premium.”

07:32
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3:Y83.50 (Feb 22 high) 
Resistance 2:Y83.00 (Mar 4 high) 
Resistance 1:Y82.40 (session high, Mar 7 high)    
Current price: Y82.38
Support 1:Y81.90 (Mar 7 low)    
Support 2:Y81.60 (Feb 24 and 28, Mar 2 low)
Support 3:Y81.30 (support line from Dec 31)    
Comments: the pair  become stronger. The nearest resistance - Y82.40. Above growth is possible to Y83.00. The nearest support - Y81,90. Below losses are posible to Y81.60. 

07:30
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9420 (38.2% FIBO Chf0.9775-Chf0.9200)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9390 (Feb 23 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9330 (Mar 3-4 high)
Current price: Chf0.9282
Support 1: Chf0.9250 (support line from Mar 2)
Support 2: Chf0.9200 (Mar 2 low)
Support 3: Chf0.9100 (psychological mark)
Comments: the pair becomes stronger. The nearest resistance - Chf0.9330. Above is located Chf0.9390. The nearest support - Chf0.9250. Below loss may extend to Chf0.9200. 

07:28
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6450 (high of Jan 2010)
Resistance 2: $ 1.6340 (Mar 2 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6230 (Mar 4 low)
Current price: $1.6206
Support 1 : $1.6180 (session low, Mar 7 low)
Support 2 : $1.6070 (support line from Feb 11)
Support 3 : $1.5960 (Feb 11 low)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of $1,6200. The nearest support $1.6180. Below is possible testings of around $1.6070. The nearest resistance $1.6230. Above growth is possible to $1.6340. 

07:26
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.4285 (high of November)
Resistance 2: $ 1.4080 (Nov 8 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.4030 (Mar 7 high)
Current price: $1.3982
Support 1 : $1.3950 (session low, Mar 7 low)
Support 2 : $1.3900 (support line from Feb 22)
Support 3 : $1.3830 (Mar 3 low)
Comments: essential changes hasn't occured. The nearest support $1,3950. Below losses are possible to $1.3900. The nearest resistance $1.4030.  Above growth is possible to $1,4080.

07:09
Schedule for today, Tuesday, Mar 8 2011:

11:00 Germany Manufacturing orders (January) seasonally adjusted 2.3% -3.4%
11:00 Germany Manufacturing orders (January) not seasonally adjusted, workday adjusted Y/Y 15.6% 19.7%
13:55 USA Redbook (05.03)  
23:50 Japan Machinery orders core (January) adjusted 3.0% 1.7%
23:50 Japan Machinery orders core (January) unadjusted Y/Y 5.1% -1.6%

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