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07.03.2011
19:43
IMF: Zhu says China must appreciate the yuan and the question is how fast. China is committed to a mkt-driven flexible fx rate.
19:28
Dow -113.30 at 12055.07, Nasdaq -57.56 at 2727.08, S&P -15.42 at 1305.51

Oil prices have pulled back a bit in recent trade, but the market has made no real reaction to the commodity's turn lower. Oil prices, though still up 0.7% for the session, now trade at $105.15 per barrel.
With stocks stuck at session lows amid steady pressure, volatility has continued to climb. The Volatility Index is now up 13% amid the widespread weakness.

19:01
American focus:

The euro’s two-month rally against the dollar is running into renewed rifts over Europe’s sovereign debt crisis just as optimism about the U.S. economy increases.
Bolstered by the prospect of higher European Central Bank interest rates as soon as next month, the euro has appreciated almost 9% against the dollar from this year’s low. Bets by futures traders on more strength are at levels that indicated reversals in the past.
Moody’s Investors Service today cut Greece’s government bond ratings by three steps to B1 from Ba1, and assigned them a negative outlook, meaning they are more likely to be downgraded further than be raised them or kept unchanged.
Portuguese bond yields have risen to levels that preceded last year’s bailouts of Ireland and Greece, both of which are trying to renegotiate terms of their rescues.
“The European crisis isn’t over,” said Andrew Balls, the London-based head of European portfolio management at Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the $237 billion Total Return Fund, the world’s biggest bond fund. “The euro-dollar exchange rate has been driven more by relative interest-rate outlooks, but the public statements ahead of the forthcoming meetings suggest that hopes for a grand bargain may be overdone.”
Strength in the euro has focused on the dollar as Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke shows no signs of raising borrowing costs even though the economy is strengthening.
Growth in the U.S. will total 3.2% this year. The European Commission raised its growth forecast to 1.7% last week and said higher oil and commodity prices may keep inflation above the ECB’s 2% limit for most of the year.
A day later, Commerzbank AG strategist Ulrich Leuchtmann in Frankfurt said the currency’s gains may end amid investor pessimism that the EU’s leaders will solve the region’s debt crisis. Last week’s rally isn’t the beginning of an “uptrend,” Bilal Hafeez, London-based head of foreign-exchange strategy at Deutsche Bank AG, wrote in an investor note March 4.
Speculators have become so bullish on the euro that past trading trends suggest they may start reversing those bets. The number of contracts that hedge funds and other large speculators hold at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange anticipating a gain in the single currency jumped to 51,308 as of March 4, according to the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The last time so-called net longs exceeded 45,000 contracts was in October. The following month the euro weakened 6.9% against the dollar. They also topped the 45,000 mark a year earlier, just before the currency began about a six-month, 21% decline.

19:00
American focus:

The euro’s two-month rally against the dollar is running into renewed rifts over Europe’s sovereign debt crisis just as optimism about the U.S. economy increases.
Bolstered by the prospect of higher European Central Bank interest rates as soon as next month, the euro has appreciated almost 9% against the dollar from this year’s low. Bets by futures traders on more strength are at levels that indicated reversals in the past.
Moody’s Investors Service today cut Greece’s government bond ratings by three steps to B1 from Ba1, and assigned them a negative outlook, meaning they are more likely to be downgraded further than be raised them or kept unchanged.
Portuguese bond yields have risen to levels that preceded last year’s bailouts of Ireland and Greece, both of which are trying to renegotiate terms of their rescues.
“The European crisis isn’t over,” said Andrew Balls, the London-based head of European portfolio management at Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the $237 billion Total Return Fund, the world’s biggest bond fund. “The euro-dollar exchange rate has been driven more by relative interest-rate outlooks, but the public statements ahead of the forthcoming meetings suggest that hopes for a grand bargain may be overdone.”
Strength in the euro has focused on the dollar as Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke shows no signs of raising borrowing costs even though the economy is strengthening.
Growth in the U.S. will total 3.2% this year. The European Commission raised its growth forecast to 1.7% last week and said higher oil and commodity prices may keep inflation above the ECB’s 2% limit for most of the year.
A day later, Commerzbank AG strategist Ulrich Leuchtmann in Frankfurt said the currency’s gains may end amid investor pessimism that the EU’s leaders will solve the region’s debt crisis. Last week’s rally isn’t the beginning of an “uptrend,” Bilal Hafeez, London-based head of foreign-exchange strategy at Deutsche Bank AG, wrote in an investor note March 4.
Speculators have become so bullish on the euro that past trading trends suggest they may start reversing those bets. The number of contracts that hedge funds and other large speculators hold at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange anticipating a gain in the single currency jumped to 51,308 as of March 4, according to the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The last time so-called net longs exceeded 45,000 contracts was in October. The following month the euro weakened 6.9% against the dollar. They also topped the 45,000 mark a year earlier, just before the currency began about a six-month, 21% decline.

18:34
IMF: Zhu Min says global recovery is going well and expect 4.4% real growth in 2011
18:26
Dow -108.30 at 12062.90, Nasdaq -56.01 at 2728.65, S&P -15.29 at 1305.89
Stocks recently made a halfhearted attempt to lift off of session lows, but sellers were quick to keep them at session lows. Telecom and utilities, both defensive oriented, have managed to put together gains, though. The two sectors are up 0.2% and 0.6%, respectively. Other defensive-oriented sectors like consumer staples (-0.2%) and health care (-1.0%) haven't been as fortunate. Tech stocks and materials stocks represent this session's worst performing sectors. Both are down 1.7% at the moment.
17:42
Fitch says investors are "not overly concerned about near-term inflation pressures
17:03
Dow -50.48 at 12118.19, Nasdaq -35.68 at 2749.11, S&P -8.15 at 1313.00

 

Recent selling pressure has stoked volatility, such that the Volatility Index is up 7%. It is still shy of the levels that it reached amid last week's volatile action, though.
Semiconductor stocks have sunk deeper into the red so that the sector is now down 3.0%, but Ciena (CIEN 25.92, -2.89) is the worst performing name among tech issues. The stock's 10% slump follows the company's downside guidance, which has completely overshadowed news of better-than-expected earnings for the latest quarter.

 

15:49
Dow +62.21 at 12233.96, Nasdaq +0.65 at 2785.23, S&P +5.20 at 1326.50

Energy stocks have moved out in front of the broader market. The sector is now up 1.0% as Newfield Exploration (NFX 73.36, +1.35), Occidental Petroleum (OXY 104.88, +1.73), and Peabody Energy (BTU 70.48, +1.13) provide leadership.
Energy stocks have also provided support to overseas markets. More specifically, Total (TOT 62.24, +0.65) has helped France's CAC climb to a 0.7% gain after it had wavered earlier today. BP Plc (BP 49.07, +0.51) has been a leader in Britain's FTSE, which is presently up 0.8%. PetroChina (PTR 141.23, +1.98) led China's Shanghai Composite to an overnight gain of 1.8%.
Advancing Sectors: Energy (+1.0%), Utilities (+0.9%), Materials (+0.5%), Industrials (+0.5%), Consumer Staples (+0.4%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.3%), Financial (+0.3%), Telecom (+0.3%)
Unchanged: Tech
Declining Sectors: Health Care (-0.1%)

15:21
Wrightson on US jobs data

"Friday's employment data were, if anything, stronger than the headline numbers suggested. In the establishment survey, the seasonal adjustment process restrained the overall increase in payrolls, perhaps excessively. We think the underlying details of the February report set the stage for the possibility of a 300K increase in payrolls next month. Trends in the household measure of employment (adjusted for year-end distortions) are even more robust.

14:53
April Nymex WTI down sharply off the early highs on rumors of Gaddafi departure from the country

April Nymex WTI down sharply off the early highs of $106.91 in reaction to some press reports that Libyan sources have told the Pan-Arab newspaper al-Sharq al-Awsat that Gaddafi has turned to the Rebel transitional National Council to secure his departure from the country in return for a guarantee of safe passage for himself and his family in exchange for a handover of power. Crude has dropped to $104.54 on the news.

14:21
Before the bell:

U.S. stocks were headed for a flat open Monday, with trading expected to be volatile as oil prices above $106 a barrel and gold prices at a new intraday record will likely keep investors on edge.


U.S. stocks fell sharply Friday, as investors dismissed the jobs data and focused on oil prices surging over $104 a barrel. Stocks still managed to scratch out gains for the week, with the Dow rising 0.3%, and the S&P and Nasdaq rising 0.1% each.
Oil prices will remain in focus Monday, with crude rising above $106 a barrel in electronic trading.
Companies: Western Digital's (WDC) stock rose 5% in premarket trading after the company agreed to acquire Hitachi's hard disk drive business. The stock and cash transaction is valued at $4.3 billion.
World markets:


Analysts at Moody's slashed Greece's credit rating three notches Monday to B1. The ratings agency also issued a negative outlook for the nation, which has struggled to implement austerity measures aimed at reducing a massive debt load.
Gold for April delivery gained $16.40 to a new intraday record of $1,445 an ounce before slipping to $1,444.70.
But the precious metal remains miles away from its true peak, when adjusted for inflation. Gold hit its real record on Jan. 21, 1980, when it rose to $825.50 an ounce. Adjusted for inflation from 1980 dollars to 2011, that translates to an all-time record of $2,206.24 an ounce.
The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose, pushing the yield down to 3.52% from 3.55% late Friday.


14:19
Gold extends the rally to $1444.25, with silver following to $36.75, as WTI crude prices rise to fresh 2.5 year highs.

The metals at all time and 31 year highs respectively, as the dollar continues to weaken.

13:32
BOE: Goldman Sach's Senior European Economist Ben Broadbent is to replace Andrew Sentance on the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee.
  • Broadbent's first meeting will be the June MPC meeting, with Sentance leaving at the end of May.
  • UK Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne thanked Sentance for his "original analysis."
  • Sentance spearheaded the drive for higher interest rates on the MPC, and many analysts expect the MPC will finally hike rates at Sentance's last meeting, in May.
13:19
European session: The pound strengthened

Data:
Sentix Investor Confidence март 16.7 16.8 17.1

The euro traded 0.2 percent from the strongest in four months against the dollar as data  show investor confidence in the region reached the highest since 2007.
The 17-nation currency touched a six-week high against the pound on speculation European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet will reiterate today that an interest-rate increase may come as early as April. 
The yen rose against most of its major peers on speculation Japanese companies bought the currency to bring home overseas earnings before the financial year ends. 
The pound strengthened against the dollar for the first day in three as investors bet the Bank of England will raise borrowing costs before the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Sterling was little changed versus the euro. The central bank will raise its key interest rate by June, according to sterling overnight index average forwards data from Tullett Prebon Plc, while futures trading in the U.S. shows the Federal Reserve is likely to keep its key rate close to zero until next year. Policy makers will maintain the U.K. rate at 0.5 percent on March 10, according to all 61 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
Rate increases will probably come at a “slow and steady” pace starting in the next quarter to prevent soaring inflation from becoming embedded in the “national psyche,” the Confederation of British Industry said today.
EUR/USD: the pair become stronger in around $1,4030.
GBP/USD: the pair shown high in the field of $1,6340.
USD/JPY: the pair shown  low in the field of Y81,90 then  returned back above mark Y82,00.

13:14
ECB TRICHET: Not certain that commodity price hikes temporary
  • Strong signs of inflationary threats in emerging economies;
  • Cbanks aim to avoid 2d-round effects, anchor inflation expectations;
  • Cbanks' unity of purpose doesn't imply same decisions;
  • Oil, commodity price spikes not new, but more acute now;
  • Global growth relatively robust,largely driven by emerging markets;
  • Very important to have appropriate rebalancing of macro policies;
  • Very important to have progressive reduction of imbalances;
  • Can't say emerging economies overheating yet, but see risks.
12:30
Orders:

EUR/USD 
Offers $1.4095/105, $1.4080/85, $1.4060, $1.4050 (options)
Bids $1.4010, $1.3925/20, $1.3910/00, $1.3890 

USD/JPY
Bids Y81.50, Y81.30/35

11:46
FTSE +31.60 +0.53% 6,021.99, CAC -1.84 -0.05% 4,018.37, Dax +13.83 +0.19% 7,192.73
11:43
RATINGS:

Moody's has today downgraded Greece's government bond ratings to B1 from Ba1, and assigned a negative outlook to the rating. The rating action completes a review that commenced on December 16, 2010.

11:36
European focus: The euro rose above $1.4000

The euro traded 0.2 percent from the strongest in four months against the dollar as data  show investor confidence in the region reached the highest since 2007.
The 17-nation currency touched a six-week high against the pound on speculation European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet will reiterate today that an interest-rate increase may come as early as April. 
The yen rose against most of its major peers on speculation Japanese companies bought the currency to bring home overseas earnings before the financial year ends. 
The pound strengthened against the dollar for the first day in three as investors bet the Bank of England will raise borrowing costs before the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Sterling was little changed versus the euro. The central bank will raise its key interest rate by June, according to sterling overnight index average forwards data from Tullett Prebon Plc, while futures trading in the U.S. shows the Federal Reserve is likely to keep its key rate close to zero until next year. Policy makers will maintain the U.K. rate at 0.5 percent on March 10, according to all 61 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
“The yield differential is the major driver of currency markets at the moment,” said Lee Hardman, a currency strategist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubihsi UFJ Ltd. in London. “My sense is that the pound could strengthen into the Bank of England meeting, but it’s unlikely to extend those gains after the meeting unless the BOE surprises and tightens policy.”
Rate increases will probably come at a “slow and steady” pace starting in the next quarter to prevent soaring inflation from becoming embedded in the “national psyche,” the Confederation of British Industry said today.

10:29
CHINA: China Commerce Ministry Offl:
  • China may have trade deficit in some mths in '11
  • Ratio of trade surplus: gdp likely to fall
  • To stabilize exports, boost imports in '11
10:00
Option expiries for today's 1500GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.4000, $1.3900, $1.3875, $1.3850
USD/JPY Y82.00, Y82.10, Y82.20, Y82.25, Y83.50
EUR/JPY Y114.35, Y113.00
GBP/USD $1.6300, $1.6400
USD/CHF  Chf0.9385
AUD/USD $1.0100
AUD/JPY Y83.50
EUR/AUD A$1.3800

09:31
EMU: Mar investor sentiment index (Sentix) 17.1
09:16
Asian session: The euro traded in the field four months high against the dollar

The euro traded 0.2 percent from the strongest in four months against the dollar before data that economists said will show investor confidence in the region reached the highest since 2007.
The 17-nation currency touched a six-week high against the pound on speculation European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet will reiterate today that an interest-rate increase may come as early as April. 
The yen rose against most of its major peers on speculation Japanese companies bought the currency to bring home overseas earnings before the financial year ends. 
Crude in New York reached its strongest level since September 2008 today. South Korea is Asia’s fourth-largest importer of the fuel. In China, the biggest buyer of Korean exports, Premier Wen Jiabao told the annual National People’s Congress in Beijing on March 5 that reining in inflation is the nation’s top priority.
EUR/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1,3960-$ 1,4000.
GBP/USD: the pair  shown low in the field of $1,6230 then  grown.
USD/JPY: the pair decreased in around Y82,10.
The European calendar is very limited for Monday with the only event of note not yet having a specified time, although ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet holds a press conference following the Global 
Economy Meeting, in Basel.

09:00
Forex: Weekly review

The dollar fell to the lowest level in almost four months versus the euro as investors speculated a gain in U.S. payrolls last month won’t be enough to spur the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates soon as the European Central Bank prepared to lift its borrowing costs.
The dollar briefly gained versus the euro after Labor Department data showed U.S. employers added 192,000 workers in February and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 8.9 percent, the lowest level since April 2009.
The dollar tumbled yesterday after ECB President Jean- Claude Trichet said the ECB may increase interest rates at its next meeting to counter inflation pressures.
Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi sent troops to recapture towns in the western part of the country and prepared to quash protests in the capital, Tripoli. Crude oil for April delivery rose as much as 2.1 percent to $104.09, the highest since September 2008.
The Swiss franc rose against  as investors sought refuge amid a jump in crude oil to a 29-month high on concern turmoil in North Africa and the Mideast will disrupt supplies.
The euro climbed to almost four- month highs versus the dollar and yen after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the ECB may raise interest rates next month to counter accelerating inflation.

08:58
Stocks: Weekly review

Asian stocks rose for the fourth day this week after fewer Americans filed unemployment claims, boosting confidence in the world’s largest economy and easing concern about oil prices and Middle East unrest.
Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s largest carmaker, climbed 1.2 percent in Tokyo as the dollar strengthened against the yen, boosting the outlook for Japan’s export earnings. Canon Inc., the world’s No. 1 maker of cameras, advanced 1.8 percent in Tokyo. Li & Fung Ltd., the biggest supplier to Wal-Mart Stores Inc., gained 4.4 percent in Hong Kong. BHP Billiton Ltd. climbed 1.5 percent in Sydney after copper rose to a two-week high in London yesterday.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1 percent to 139.25 at 8:49 p.m. in Tokyo. It has gained 1.7 percent this week, on course for the highest close since Feb. 21. The gauge retreated 2.1 percent last week on concern political turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa may jeopardize a global economic recovery.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 1 percent. South Korea’s Kospi Index climbed 1.7 percent and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 1.2 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index increased 1.2 percent.

European stocks fell this week, as European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet’s suggestions of a possible increase in interest rates and concern spurred by unrest in North Africa and the Middle East outweighed a drop in the U.S. unemployment rate.
Banking and automobile shares led the drop. United Business Media Ltd. sank as margins narrowed. Verbund AG plummeted as full-year profit missed expectations. Carrefour SA dropped 9.2 percent as brokerages including Citigroup Inc. and Morgan Stanley cut their ratings. Arkema SA drove chemical shares higher.
The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index declined 0.8 percent to 281.9 this week. The gauge, which fell the most since July in the week ended Feb. 25, is still up 2.2 percent this year amid better-than-estimated corporate earnings and indications the global economy is gathering strength.
Fifty-six percent of Stoxx 600 companies that have announced earnings since Jan. 10 have beaten the average analyst estimate for per-share profit

The S&P 500 has climbed 0.3 percent this week, pushed up by reports showing claims for first-time jobless benefits decreased, U.S. businesses grew at the fastest pace in two decades and gauges of manufacturing and service industries climbed to the highest levels since at least 2005. Better-than- estimated data pushed the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index to its highest level ever
Average hourly earnings were unchanged in February, Labor Department data showed. Economists in a Bloomberg survey had forecast 0.2 percent growth. The data offset a 192,000 increase in payrolls and an unexpected decline in the unemployment rate to 8.9 percent, the lowest level since April 2009.
The labor market has improved slowly and it may take several years for the unemployment rate to reach a “more normal level,” Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said March 1 during testimony before the Senate Banking Committee.
Private payrolls have increased for 12 straight months after plunging by as many as 841,000 jobs when President Barack Obama took office at the depths of the recession in January 2009, Labor Department data shows.
The recovery in the job market has helped propel a rebound in the U.S. equity market after the collapse of the subprime mortgage market triggered the worst bear market since the Great Depression. The S&P 500 rallied 97 percent from a 12-year low in March 2009 through yesterday, the biggest advance over the same period of time since 1930s, according to data compiled by Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P.
Crude rose amid concern unrest in Libya will spread to other Middle East oil producers, curbing exports, and as a falling U.S. jobless rate signaled that fuel demand will climb. Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi sent troops to recapture towns in the western part of the country and prepared to quash protests in the capital, Tripoli.
Citigroup dropped 2.5 percent to $4.56. The third-largest U.S. bank was cut to “neutral” from “buy” by analysts at Bank of America, who also cut Goldman Sachs Group to “neutral” from “buy.” Goldman Sachs shares fell 1.4 percent to $162.18.
Marvell Technology fell 8.1 percent to $16.74. The maker of the processor that runs BlackBerry smartphones announced fourth- quarter adjusted earnings and revenue that missed estimates.
Monster Worldwide Inc. slipped 5.8 percent to $16.01. The online-recruiting company was cut to “market perform” from “outperform” at William Blair & Co.

07:53
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3:Y83.50 (Feb 22 high) 
Resistance 2:Y83.00 (Mar 4 high) 
Resistance 1:Y82.40 (session high)    
Current price: Y82.24
Support 1:Y82.10 (Mar 1 high, session low)    
Support 2:Y81.60 (Feb 24 and 28, Mar 2 low)
Support 3:Y81.30 (support line from Dec 31)    
Comments: the pair bargains above mark Y82,00. The nearest resistance - Y82.50. Above growth is possible  to Y82.90. The nearest support - Y82,10. Below losses are possible to Y81.60. 

07:50
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9420 (38.2% FIBO Chf0.9775-Chf0.9200)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9390 (Feb 23 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9330 (Mar 3-4 high)
Current price: Chf0.9251
Support 1: Chf0.9220 (Mar 4 low)
Support 2: Chf0.9200 (Mar 2 low)
Support 3: Chf0.9100 (psychological mark)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of Chf0.9250. The nearest support - Chf0.9220. Below loss may extend to Chf0.9200. The nearest resistance - Chf0.9330. Above is located Chf0.9390. 

07:25
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6450 (high of Jan 2010)
Resistance 2: $ 1.6340 (Mar 2 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6300 (Mar 4 high)
Current price: $1.6239
Support 1 : $1.6230 (session low, Mar 4 low)
Support 2 : $1.6160 (Feb 25 high)
Support 3 : $1.6070 (support line from Feb 11)
Comments: the pair decreases. The nearest support $1.6230. Below is possible testings of around $1.6160. The nearest resistance $1.6300. Above growth is possible to $1.6340. 

07:21
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.4285 (high of November)
Resistance 2: $ 1.4080 (Nov 8 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.4000 (Mar 4 high)
Current price: $1.3975
Support 1 : $1.3940 (Mar 4 low)
Support 2 : $1.3870 (support line from Feb 22)
Support 3 : $1.3830 (Mar 3 low)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of the reached high. The nearest support $1,3940. Below losses are possible to $1.3870. The nearest resistance $1.4000.  Above growth is possible to $1,4080.

06:31
Schedule for today, Monday, Mar 7 2011:

05:00 Japan Leading indicators composite index (January) preliminary 102.3 101.4
05:00 Japan Coincident indicators composite index (January) preliminary - 103.5
23:50 Japan Current account (January) unadjusted, trln 0.470 1.195
23:50 Japan Trade balance (January) unadjusted, trln - 0.769

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