Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
05:00 (GMT) | Japan | Coincident Index | November | 89.4 | |
05:00 (GMT) | Japan | Leading Economic Index | November | 94.3 | |
06:45 (GMT) | Switzerland | Unemployment Rate (non s.a.) | December | 3.3% | 3.4% |
07:00 (GMT) | Germany | Current Account | November | 22.5 | |
07:00 (GMT) | Germany | Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) | November | 3.2% | 0.7% |
07:00 (GMT) | Germany | Trade Balance (non s.a.), bln | November | 19.4 | |
07:45 (GMT) | France | Consumer spending | November | 3.7% | -15.1% |
07:45 (GMT) | France | Trade Balance, bln | November | -4.9 | |
07:45 (GMT) | France | Industrial Production, m/m | November | 1.6% | -1% |
08:00 (GMT) | Switzerland | Foreign Currency Reserves | December | 875.9 | |
08:30 (GMT) | United Kingdom | Halifax house price index | December | 1.2% | 0.5% |
08:30 (GMT) | United Kingdom | Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y | December | 7.6% | |
10:00 (GMT) | Eurozone | Unemployment Rate | November | 8.4% | 8.5% |
13:30 (GMT) | U.S. | Average workweek | December | 34.8 | 34.8 |
13:30 (GMT) | U.S. | Government Payrolls | December | -99 | |
13:30 (GMT) | U.S. | Manufacturing Payrolls | December | 27 | 20 |
13:30 (GMT) | U.S. | Private Nonfarm Payrolls | December | 344 | 100 |
13:30 (GMT) | U.S. | Labor Force Participation Rate | December | 61.5% | |
13:30 (GMT) | U.S. | Average hourly earnings | December | 0.3% | 0.2% |
13:30 (GMT) | Canada | Employment | December | 62 | -27.5 |
13:30 (GMT) | Canada | Unemployment rate | December | 8.5% | 8.6% |
13:30 (GMT) | U.S. | Nonfarm Payrolls | December | 245 | 100 |
13:30 (GMT) | U.S. | Unemployment Rate | December | 6.7% | 6.7% |
15:00 (GMT) | U.S. | Wholesale Inventories | November | 1.2% | -0.1% |
16:00 (GMT) | U.S. | FOMC Member Clarida Speaks | |||
18:00 (GMT) | U.S. | Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | January | ||
20:00 (GMT) | U.S. | Consumer Credit | November | 7.23 | 9 |
Statistics
Canada announced on Thursday that Canada’s merchandise trade deficit stood at
CAD3.34 billion in November, narrowing from a revised CAD3.73-billion gap in October
(originally a CAD3.76-billion shortfall). This was the lowest trade gap since August.
Economists had
forecast a deficit of CAD3.50 billion.
According to
the report, Canada’s exports grew by 0.5 percent m-o-m to CAD46.76 billion in November,
mainly driven by higher exports of gold. Meanwhile, imports decreased by 0.3
percent m-o-m to CAD50.10 billion in November, primarily due to lower imports
of industrial machinery, equipment and parts (-3.9 percent m-o-m).
The Ivey
Business School Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), measuring Canada’s economic
activity, decreased to 46.7 in December from 52.7 in November. That was the
lowest reading since May.
A reading above
50 signals expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
Within
sub-indexes, the employment measure fell to 45.8 in December from 48.1 in the
previous month, the inventories indicator dropped to 43.8 from 49.3 and the
supplier deliveries gauge declined to 30.1 from 34.3. At the same time, the
prices index increased to 66.9 in December from 66.1 in November.
The Institute
for Supply Management (ISM) reported on Thursday that its non-manufacturing
index (NMI) came in at 57.2 in December, which was 1.3 percentage point higher
than the November reading of 55.9 percent. The reading pointed to the growth in
the services sector for the seventh straight month and at the fastest pace in
three months.
Economists forecast
the index to decrease to 54.6 last month. A reading above 50 signals expansion,
while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
Of the 18
manufacturing industries, 14 reported gains last month, the ISM said but added
that respondents' comments were mixed about business conditions and the economy
as various local- and state-level COVID-19 shutdowns continued to negatively impact
companies and industries.
According to
the report, the ISM’s non-manufacturing Business Activity measure rose 1.4
percentage points to 59.4 percent from November’s figure, the New Orders gauge increased
1.3 percentage points to 58.5 percent, the Supplier Deliveries Index jumped 5.8
percentage points to 62.8 percent and the Inventories index surged 8.9
percentage points to 58.2 percent. Meanwhile, the Employment Index decreased 3.3
percentage points to 48.2 percent from the November reading and the Prices
Index fell 1.3 percentage points to 64.8.
Commenting on
the data, the Chair of the ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee,
Anthony Nieves, noted, “The past relationship between the Services PMI and the
overall economy indicates that the Services PM for December (57.2 percent)
corresponds to a 2.9-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on
an annualized basis.”
U.S. stock-index futures rose on Thursday, as investors reacted positively to the Democrats’ gaining of control of the Senate and the Congress’ recognition of Joe Biden as the next U.S. president.
Global Stocks:
Index/commodity | Last | Today's Change, points | Today's Change, % |
Nikkei | 27,490.13 | +434.19 | +1.60% |
Hang Seng | 27,548.52 | -143.78 | -0.52% |
Shanghai | 3,576.20 | +25.33 | +0.71% |
S&P/ASX | 6,712.00 | +104.90 | +1.59% |
FTSE | 6,807.02 | -34.84 | -0.51% |
CAC | 5,652.68 | +22.08 | +0.39% |
DAX | 13,942.98 | +51.01 | +0.37% |
Crude oil | $50.70 | +0.14% | |
Gold | $1,916.80 | +0.43% |
FXStreet notes that the S&P 500 Index has neutralized its recent bearish “reversal day” but has been unable to sustain its brief move to a new high and the Credit Suisse analyst team remains wary of directly chasing further strength for now.
“S&P 500 has neutralized its recent bearish ‘reversal day’ on even higher volume but the market has been unable as yet to sustain its move to new highs and is still capped at our next objective of 3765/85. With daily RSI momentum also still holding a bearish divergence we remain wary of immediately chasing strength directly further from here.”
“Whilst support at 3697/95 holds the upside should still probably be given the slight benefit of the doubt for now, but with a break above 3785 needed to add momentum back to the rally with resistance then seen next at 3800 ahead of 3825/32 and eventually the ‘measured triangle objective’ at 3900.”
(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)
3M Co | MMM | 171.56 | -2.63(-1.51%) | 12980 |
ALCOA INC. | AA | 25.66 | 0.45(1.79%) | 3636 |
ALTRIA GROUP INC. | MO | 41.6 | 0.18(0.43%) | 14410 |
Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ | AMZN | 3,165.00 | 26.62(0.85%) | 43363 |
American Express Co | AXP | 123.7 | 1.07(0.87%) | 4139 |
AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP | AIG | 40.42 | 0.21(0.52%) | 689 |
Apple Inc. | AAPL | 128.35 | 1.75(1.38%) | 1466046 |
AT&T Inc | T | 30.09 | 0.26(0.87%) | 318344 |
Boeing Co | BA | 213.21 | 2.18(1.03%) | 74909 |
Caterpillar Inc | CAT | 194.72 | 0.86(0.44%) | 10592 |
Chevron Corp | CVX | 90.35 | 0.55(0.61%) | 17207 |
Cisco Systems Inc | CSCO | 44.11 | -0.29(-0.65%) | 48856 |
Citigroup Inc., NYSE | C | 67.1 | 1.85(2.83%) | 173554 |
E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Co | DD | 77.98 | 0.23(0.30%) | 3376 |
Exxon Mobil Corp | XOM | 44.95 | 0.34(0.76%) | 123985 |
Facebook, Inc. | FB | 266.46 | 3.15(1.20%) | 217737 |
FedEx Corporation, NYSE | FDX | 253.38 | -0.18(-0.07%) | 19345 |
Ford Motor Co. | F | 8.93 | 0.09(1.02%) | 367533 |
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE | FCX | 30.83 | 0.67(2.22%) | 150112 |
General Electric Co | GE | 11.56 | 0.20(1.76%) | 598223 |
General Motors Company, NYSE | GM | 43.65 | 0.67(1.56%) | 65200 |
Goldman Sachs | GS | 289.88 | 4.33(1.51%) | 24089 |
Google Inc. | GOOG | 1,746.25 | 10.96(0.63%) | 12649 |
Home Depot Inc | HD | 268.5 | 0.93(0.35%) | 4555 |
HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC. | HON | 212.54 | 0.28(0.13%) | 2361 |
Intel Corp | INTC | 50.94 | -0.16(-0.31%) | 83518 |
International Business Machines Co... | IBM | 130.25 | 0.96(0.74%) | 18485 |
International Paper Company | IP | 53.15 | 0.31(0.59%) | 345 |
Johnson & Johnson | JNJ | 159.5 | -0.33(-0.21%) | 10421 |
JPMorgan Chase and Co | JPM | 134.95 | 3.40(2.58%) | 156263 |
McDonald's Corp | MCD | 213.31 | 2.31(1.09%) | 17023 |
Merck & Co Inc | MRK | 82.59 | 0.21(0.25%) | 5883 |
Microsoft Corp | MSFT | 213.94 | 1.69(0.80%) | 207651 |
Nike | NKE | 142.65 | 0.30(0.21%) | 5563 |
Pfizer Inc | PFE | 37.08 | 0.21(0.57%) | 195289 |
Procter & Gamble Co | PG | 140.3 | 0.14(0.10%) | 4264 |
Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ | SBUX | 104.02 | -0.17(-0.16%) | 22603 |
Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ | TSLA | 776 | 20.02(2.65%) | 806952 |
The Coca-Cola Co | KO | 50.64 | 0.12(0.24%) | 153896 |
Travelers Companies Inc | TRV | 139.47 | 0.37(0.27%) | 2417 |
Twitter, Inc., NYSE | TWTR | 51.98 | -1.28(-2.40%) | 166264 |
Verizon Communications Inc | VZ | 58.75 | 0.09(0.15%) | 44319 |
Visa | V | 213.2 | 0.58(0.27%) | 20095 |
Wal-Mart Stores Inc | WMT | 147.35 | 0.69(0.47%) | 26987 |
Walt Disney Co | DIS | 180.56 | 1.44(0.80%) | 16962 |
The U.S. Commerce Department reported on Thursday that U.S. the goods and services trade deficit widened to $68.1 billion in November from an unrevised $63.1 billion in the previous month. This was the biggest trade deficit since August 2006.
Economists had expected a deficit of $65.2 billion.
According to the report, the November rise in the goods and services deficit reflected an advance in the goods deficit of $5.0 billion to $86.4 billion and a decline in the services surplus of less than $0.1 billion to $18.2 billion.
In November, exports of goods and services from the U.S. rose 1.2 percent m-o-m to $184.2 billion, while imports surged 2.9 percent m-o-m to $252.3 billion, reflecting both the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the continued economic recovery from the steep declines earlier in the year.
Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit climbed 13.9 percent from the same period in 2019. Exports plunged 16.1 percent, while imports tumbled 10.5 percent.
3M (MMM) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA Securities; target $170
Coca-Cola (KO) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan; target $55
Credit Suisse (CS) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities
McDonald's (MCD) upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer; target $240
Tesla (TSLA) upgraded to Sector Perform from Underperform at RBC Capital Mkts; target raised to $700
The data from
the Labor Department revealed on Thursday the number of applications for
unemployment decreased slightly last week.
According to the report, the initial claims for unemployment benefits decreased by 3,000 to 787,000 for the week ended January 2.
Economists had expected 800,000 new claims last week.
Claims for the
prior week were revised upwardly to 790,000 from the initial estimate of 787,000.
Meanwhile, the
four-week moving average of claims fell to 818,750 from an upwardly revised 837,500
in the previous week.
Continuing
claims declined to 5,072,000 from a downwardly revised 5,198,000 in the
previous week.
Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09:00 | Eurozone | ECB Economic Bulletin | ||||
09:30 | United Kingdom | PMI Construction | December | 54.7 | 55 | 54.6 |
10:00 | Eurozone | Industrial confidence | December | -10.1 | -8.1 | -7.2 |
10:00 | Eurozone | Economic sentiment index | December | 87.7 | 90 | 90.4 |
10:00 | Eurozone | Consumer Confidence | December | -17.6 | -13.9 | -13.9 |
10:00 | Eurozone | Harmonized CPI, Y/Y | December | -0.3% | -0.2% | -0.3% |
10:00 | Eurozone | Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y | December | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
10:00 | Eurozone | Retail Sales (MoM) | November | 1.4% | -3.4% | -6.1% |
10:00 | Eurozone | Retail Sales (YoY) | November | 4.2% | 0.8% | -2.9% |
10:00 | Eurozone | Harmonized CPI | December | -0.3% | 0.3% |
GBP rose against most of its major rivals in the European session on Thursday after underperformance earlier in the week, which was caused by the raised worries that the Bank of England (BoE) would provide more policy easing with the interest rates expected to be moved into negative territory to cushion the damage to the UK's economy from a new national lockdown.
Investors also digested the UK’s December Construction PMI, which revealed that construction sector recovery continued in December. According to the survey from IHS Markit, the headline seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply (CIPS) UK Construction Total Activity Index edged down to 54.6 in December from 54.7 in November, pointing to a sustained rebound in business activity. A score above 50 indicates expansion in the sector. Economists had forecast the indicator to increase to 55.0 in December.
FXStreet notes that inflation is currently very low but there is high uncertainty over the level of inflation in the future: there is talk of deflation, but also of a return of inflation for various reasons. Economists at Natixis find that protection against inflation is provided by equities and real estate at all horizons in the eurozone and by only bonds at a very long horizon in the U.S.
“Inflation is currently very low both in the United States and in the eurozone. But there is high uncertainty over the future level of inflation, due to excess global savings; there is talk of a risk of deflation and strong money creation, population ageing, the energy transition, reshoring, etc. There is also talk of a return of inflation. Faced with this uncertainty, investors may want to protect against inflation.”
“We find a significant positive correlation between inflation and returns on equities and real estate in the eurozone in monthly, quarterly and annual data as well as over two and four-year periods and equity returns in the United States in annual data and bond returns in the United States over four-year periods.”
Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) reported Q1 FY 2021 earnings of $1.22 per share (versus $1.37 per share in Q1 FY 2020), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $1.04 per share.
The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $36.307 bln (+5.7% y/y), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $35.014 bln.
WBA rose to $44.80 (+4.11%) in pre-market trading.
FXStreet reports that economists at MUFG Bank think that the Bank of England (BoE) is moving towards negative rates which could push the EUR/GBP pair towards the 0.94 level.
“The relative cyclical underperformance is set to continue in the near-term after the UK government announced a third national lockdown in England which is expected at last until March. There is a high risk the lockdown could last longer given the higher transmission of the new COVID-19 variant.”
“If the UK government is successful and leads the way in rolling out vaccines, the pound could eventually benefit from a stronger UK recovery from Q2 onwards. However, we expect things to get worse for the pound before then.”
“The hit to UK economy from the third lockdown will increase pressure on the BoE to deliver additional monetary stimulus as soon as their next meeting in February. Interestingly, it was announced yesterday that BoE plans to publish research on negative rates in February. We now expect the BoE to move rates into negative territory in February by lowering the key policy rate from 0.10% to -0.15%. We had previously forecast a cut to 0.00%. It should push EUR/GBP back up towards last year’s highs.”
FXStreet reports that strategists at Credit Suisse note that gold (XAU/USD) has broken above its downtrend from August to suggest the core bull trend is close to resuming on a break above the November high of $1966.
“Gold has not only stabilised as expected above its short, medium and long-term moving averages but has also broken its downtrend from last August and we remain of the view weakness from August is a correction within the longer-term bull market.”
“Above the $1966 November high is still needed to suggest the core trend is indeed turning higher again for strength back to $2075 and eventually $2300.”
FX Strategists at ING note that protestors storming the seat of democracy is hardly an event expected of a first world economy, especially the US.
"On paper this could demand an extra political risk premium of US asset markets and the dollar. However, the early judgement from US equity futures (March Nasdaq +1%) is that these events represent the final acts of an outgoing administration and instead the focus is on what a Democrat controlled Congress can deliver in 2021."
"Helping to drive the US recovery is also super-loose Federal Reserve policy. Last night’s release of the FOMC December minutes make good reading and remind us that the Fed will be printing $120bn per month – with a threat to do more – probably into 2022. Despite the pick-up in US inflation expectations, it seems the Fed will have a very high bar to concluding that ‘substantial progress’ has been made towards its employment and inflation goals."
"Reflationary Fed policy looks here to stay and assuming the post-Covid recovery story is not seriously challenged, it looks like equity and commodity markets should stay bid."
"Softer US jobs data (ADP yesterday, weekly claims today or NFP tomorrow) look unlikely to change the narrative and we expect the dollar to stay soft. The 88.25 February 2018 low is a clear target for the DXY."
FXStreet reports that economists at Rabobank forecast the EUR/GBP pair at 0.87 by end-2021.
“While the UK’s relatively rapid roll-out of its vaccine programme is allowing optimism for H2 to persist, headlines surrounding the risk of a ‘double-dip’ recession have been appearing in reference to the souring of the outlook for the early months of this year. The market is also pricing in an increased risk of a 10 bp rate cut from the BoE later this year, though we may have to wait for the Bank’s next policy meeting on February 4 for further policy clues.”
“In addition to economic hurdles, politics also has the potential to weigh on the GBP this year. Brexit is unlikely to stray far from the headlines as commentators attempt to evaluate the initial impact on the economy.”
“Our central view is that the pound can make up some ground vs the EUR in the latter part of the year in line with an expected rebound in UK growth. However, the coming months could still bring plenty of hurdles for the pound. Our end of year forecast is EUR/GBP 0.87.”
According to the report from European Commission, in December 2020, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) picked up in both the euro area (+2.7 points up to 90.4) and the EU (+2.8 points up to 89.5 points), almost offsetting the drop registered in November. Economists had expected an increase to 90.0 in the euro area. Also the Employment Expectations Indicator (EEI) partially recovered from last month’s drop (+1.4 points to 88.3 in the euro area and +2.1 points to 89.5 in the EU).
In the euro area, the ESI’s recovery was driven by markedly higher confidence in industry and among consumers and, to a lesser degree, in construction. By contrast, confidence registered mild declines in services and retail trade. Amongst the largest euro-area economies, the ESI increased significantly in Italy (+6.8), Spain (+3.3) and, to a lesser extent, in the Netherlands (+2.5) and France (+2.1), while it remained broadly unchanged in Germany (+0.1).
According to estimates from Eurostat, in November 2020, the COVID-19 containment measures introduced again by several Member States had a significant impact on retail trade, as the seasonally adjusted volume of retail trade fell by 6.1% in the euro area and by 5.0% the EU, compared with October 2020. Economists had expected a 3.4% decrease. In October 2020, the retail trade volume rose by 1.4% in both the euro area and in the EU.
In November 2020 compared with November 2019, the calendar adjusted volume of retail trade decreased by 2.9% in the euro area and by 2.0% in the EU.
In the euro area in November 2020, compared with October 2020, the volume of retail trade decreased by 10.6% for automotive fuels, by 8.9% for non-food products (within this category mail orders and internet increased by 1.8%) and by 1.7% for food, drinks and tobacco. In the EU, the volume of retail trade decreased by 7.7% for automotive fuels, by 7.3% for non-food products (mail orders and internet +2.3%) and by 1.5% for food, drinks and tobacco.
According to a flash estimate from Eurostat, euro area annual inflation is expected to be -0.3% in December 2020, stable compared to November. The core figures came in at 0.2% in the reported month when compared to 0.2% expectations and 0.2% seen in November.
Looking at the main components of euro area inflation, food, alcohol & tobacco is expected to have the highest annual rate in December (1.4%, compared with 1.9% in November), followed by services (0.7%, compared with 0.6% in November), non-energy industrial goods (-0.5%, compared with -0.3% in November) and energy (-6.9%, compared with -8.3% in November).
According to the report from IHS Markit/CIPS, UK construction companies recorded a sustained rebound in business activity during December. Stronger order books helped to drive the recovery across the construction sector, with survey respondents often citing work on projects that had been delayed earlier in 2020. Higher levels of demand led to a slight rise in employment numbers and greater demand for construction inputs in December. However, stretched supply chains and delays at UK ports resulted in longer delivery times and the fastest rate of input cost inflation since April 2019.
The headline seasonally adjusted UK Construction Total Activity Index posted 54.6 in December, little-changed from 54.7 in November and above the crucial 50.0 no-change threshold for the seventh consecutive month. Increased construction activity primarily reflected another sharp rise in house building during December (index at 61.9). Commercial activity also expanded (51.2), but the rate of growth eased to its lowest since the recovery began last June. Civil engineering was the weakest-performing category (48.0), with activity falling for the fourth time in the past five months.
Total new orders increased at a strong pace in December, which extended the current period of expansion to seven months. Survey respondents noted improving client demand, alongside a boost from new business wins on construction projects that had been deferred at the start of the pandemic.
December data indicated a return to jobs growth in the construction sector, although the rate of expansion was only marginal. Additional staff hiring reflected forthcoming new projects and improved confidence about the business outlook. Exactly half of the survey panel (50%) forecast a rise in business activity over the course of 2021, while only 10% anticipate a decline, which signalled the strongest optimism across the construction sector since April 2017.
CNBC reports that according to top wealth managers UBS Global and Goldman Sachs, earnings growth in Asia will bounce back this year and could jump by more than 20% as the regional economy recovers.
“We are looking for a strong earnings recovery across all major regions of the world,” said Tan Min Lan, Asia Pacific head of chief investment office at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“In 2021, we think earnings in Asia will rise about 23%. There will be a broadening of recovery outside of north Asia,” she told CNBC.
Timothy Moe, chief Asia-Pacific regional equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, was also bullish on earnings growth in the region.
“We think we’re … on the cusp of a very significant earnings recovery in Asia and so we’re looking at about 24%, 25% earnings growth this year and then a further importantly 16% next year,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”
Markets have “obviously paid forward for that” with their very strong performance last year, Moe added.
FXStreet reports that FX Strategists at UOB Group remain bearish on the USD/CNH in the short-term horizon.
Next 1-3 weeks: “While our expectation for USD to weaken was correct, we did not quite anticipate the pace of the decline as it dropped sharply to a low of 6.4127. As highlighted yesterday, the next support is at 6.4300 followed by 6.4000. In view of the vastly improved momentum, a break of 6.4000 would not be surprising and would open up the way for a move lower to 6.3800. All in, USD is expected to remain weak as long as it does not move above 6.4950 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 6.5100 yesterday).”
According to the report from IHS Markit, the Eurozone Construction Total Activity Index slipped to 45.5 in December from 45.6 in November, signifying a further solid contraction in eurozone construction activity. The latest fall extended the current sequence of decline to ten months, although the rate of reduction remained far softer than at the nadir of the downturn caused by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in April.
Latest data showed a broad-based downturn in output across the three monitored sub sectors, with the sharpest decline recorded in commercial construction, followed by civil engineering activity. Meanwhile, housing activity fell once again in December. Home building among eurozone constructors was scaled back further in December. The result indicated the tenth consecutive fall in housing activity, with the pace of decline quickening from the previous survey period. Meanwhile, commercial building activity was the worst performing sub-sector monitored for the second successive month. The fall in December extended the current sequence of decline to 10 months and was strong overall. Work undertaken on civil engineering projects continued to reduce in December. Despite the decline softening slightly from November, the fall in infrastructure activity was solid overall and was the seventeenth in as many months.
Overall sentiment among eurozone building companies remained negative in December, as indicated by the Future Activity Index staying below the neutral 50.0 threshold for the fifth consecutive month.
Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
00:30 | Australia | Trade Balance | November | 6.583 | 6.2 | 5.022 |
00:30 | Australia | Building Permits, m/m | November | 3.3% | 3.5% | 2.6% |
07:00 | Germany | Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) | November | 3.3% | -1.2% | 2.3% |
07:30 | Switzerland | Retail Sales (MoM) | November | 3.2% | -2.4% | |
07:30 | Switzerland | Retail Sales Y/Y | November | 3.1% | 1.0% |
During today's Asian trading, the dollar was trading near its lowest level in nearly three years after Democrats gained control of the U.S. Senate, paving the way for more fiscal stimulus under President-elect Joe Biden.
Analysts generally assume that the Democratic-controlled Senate will be a net positive for global economic growth and thus for most risky assets, but a negative for bonds and the dollar, as the U.S. budget and trade deficit could widen further.
The dollar index rose 0.04%, but still lay close to its overnight low of 89.206, a level not seen since March 2018.
“The dollar will remain weaker against commodity currencies like the Aussie and emerging market currencies,” which benefit when risk sentiment is positive. At the same time, higher Treasury yields should benefit the dollar against the euro and the yen, because the dollar has underpriced the potential for U.S economic recovery under Biden.” said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities.
The yuan was virtually unchanged against the dollar after Chinese authorities signaled a desire for a slower pace of gains. The remarks by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) on Wednesday follows an advance of around 10% on the greenback since last May as China’s economic rebound has led the world’s pandemic recovery.
FXStreet reports that according to strategists at TD Securities, WTI prices cement themselves a few dollars north of $50/bbl and Brent trend above $55/bbl in the not too distant future.
“Prices rallied sharply as the OPEC+ group of producers will see large inventory draws during February and March. This is a direct result of the OPEC+ group's decision to raise production by 425k bpd less than previously expected and Saudi Arabia's vow to implement a unilateral 1m bpd of voluntary cuts. Overall, energy markets are interpreting OPEC+'s decision as a 'Gift for the New Year'.”
“As a result of Saudi cuts and a general willingness to be flexible in response to weak demand, we may well see WTI prices cement themselves well north of $50/bbl and Brent trend above $55/bbl in the near future. Notwithstanding, the market should not expect the rally to turn into a runaway train much above those levels, as higher prices may be seen as breathing life into US shale producers down the road, which are otherwise expected to see a lackluster production growth profile.”
According to the report from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO), turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 1.0% in nominal terms in November 2020 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 2.4% compared with the previous month.
Real turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 1.7% in November 2020 compared with the previous year. Real growth takes inflation into consideration. Compared with the previous month, real, seasonally adjusted retail trade turnover registered a decline of 2.0%.
Adjusted for sales days and holidays, the retail sector excluding service stations showed a 2.7% increase in nominal turnover in November 2020 compared with November 2019 (in real terms +3.2%). Retail sales of food, drinks and tobacco registered an increase in nominal turnover of 8.3% (in real terms +7.7%), whereas the non-food sector registered a nominal negative of 1.7% (in real terms -0.4%).
Excluding service stations, the retail sector showed a seasonally adjusted decline in nominal turnover of 2.4% compared with the previous month (in real terms -2.1%). Retail sales of food, drinks and tobacco registered a nominal minus of 0.3% (in real terms +0.1%). The non-food sector showed a minus of 3.2% (in real terms -2.7%).
According to provisional results of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), real (price adjusted) new orders increased by a seasonally and calendar adjusted 2.3% in November 2020 compared with October 2020. Economists had expected a 1.2% decrease. Compared with November 2019, the increase in calendar adjusted new orders amounted to +6.3%. Excluding major orders, real new orders in manufacturing (seasonally and calendar adjusted) were 1.6% higher than in the previous month.
Compared with February 2020, the month before restrictions were imposed due to the corona pandemic in Germany, new orders in November 2020 were 4.0% higher in seasonally and calendar adjusted terms.
Domestic orders increased by 1.6% and foreign orders increased by 2.9% in November 2020 on the previous month. New orders from the euro area went up 6.1%, and new orders from other countries increased by 0.9% compared with October 2020.
In November 2020, the manufacturers of intermediate goods saw new orders increase by 4.9% compared with October 2020. The manufacturers of capital goods saw an increase of 1.1% on the previous month. Regarding consumer goods, new orders rose 0.5%.
For October 2020, revision of the preliminary outcome resulted in an increase of 3.3% compared with September 2020 (provisional: +2.9).
EUR/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.2407 (2775)
$1.2370 (740)
$1.2345 (2104)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.2320
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.2281 (263)
$1.2243 (4525)
$1.2197 (2323)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date January, 8 is 80763 contracts (according to data from January, 6) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2100 (4868);
GBP/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.3755 (668)
$1.3709 (1954)
$1.3670 (1555)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.3594
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.3532 (589)
$1.3491 (787)
$1.3446 (785)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date January, 8 is 56814 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4000 (33147);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date January, 8 is 29905 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2800 (2933);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.53 versus 0.52 from the previous trading day according to data from January, 6
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
Raw materials | Closed | Change, % |
---|---|---|
Brent | 54.12 | 0.86 |
Silver | 27.272 | -0.94 |
Gold | 1918.575 | -1.6 |
Palladium | 2432.22 | -1.36 |
Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
00:30 (GMT) | Australia | ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) | December | 13.9% | |
00:30 (GMT) | Australia | Trade Balance | November | 7.456 | 6.2 |
00:30 (GMT) | Australia | Building Permits, m/m | November | 3.8% | 3.5% |
03:00 (GMT) | China | Trade Balance, bln | December | 75.40 | |
07:00 (GMT) | Germany | Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) | November | 2.9% | -1.2% |
07:30 (GMT) | Switzerland | Retail Sales (MoM) | November | 3.2% | |
07:30 (GMT) | Switzerland | Retail Sales Y/Y | November | 3.1% | |
09:00 (GMT) | Eurozone | ECB Economic Bulletin | |||
09:30 (GMT) | United Kingdom | PMI Construction | December | 54.7 | 55 |
10:00 (GMT) | Eurozone | Industrial confidence | December | -10.1 | -8.1 |
10:00 (GMT) | Eurozone | Economic sentiment index | December | 87.6 | 90 |
10:00 (GMT) | Eurozone | Consumer Confidence | December | -17.6 | -13.9 |
10:00 (GMT) | Eurozone | Harmonized CPI, Y/Y | December | -0.3% | -0.2% |
10:00 (GMT) | Eurozone | Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y | December | 0.2% | 0.2% |
10:00 (GMT) | Eurozone | Retail Sales (MoM) | November | 1.5% | -3.4% |
10:00 (GMT) | Eurozone | Retail Sales (YoY) | November | 4.3% | 0.8% |
10:00 (GMT) | Eurozone | Harmonized CPI | December | -0.3% | |
13:30 (GMT) | U.S. | Continuing Jobless Claims | December | 5219 | 5200 |
13:30 (GMT) | U.S. | Initial Jobless Claims | January | 787 | 800 |
13:30 (GMT) | Canada | Trade balance, billions | November | -3.76 | -3.5 |
13:30 (GMT) | U.S. | International Trade, bln | November | -63.1 | -65.2 |
14:00 (GMT) | U.S. | FOMC Member Harker Speaks | |||
15:00 (GMT) | Canada | Ivey Purchasing Managers Index | December | 52.7 | |
15:00 (GMT) | U.S. | ISM Non-Manufacturing | December | 55.9 | 54.6 |
17:00 (GMT) | U.S. | FOMC Member James Bullard Speaks | |||
18:00 (GMT) | U.S. | FOMC Member Charles Evans Speaks | |||
23:30 (GMT) | Japan | Household spending Y/Y | November | 1.9% |
Pare | Closed | Change, % |
---|---|---|
AUDUSD | 0.78044 | 0.6 |
EURJPY | 127.044 | 0.6 |
EURUSD | 1.23261 | 0.24 |
GBPJPY | 140.222 | 0.27 |
GBPUSD | 1.36052 | -0.09 |
NZDUSD | 0.7293 | 0.67 |
USDCAD | 1.26781 | 0.11 |
USDCHF | 0.87837 | 0.02 |
USDJPY | 103.059 | 0.37 |
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