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07.01.2011
20:01
US: Nov consumer credit +$1.4b vs +$7b Oct
19:57
RBC says the employment data changes nothing in their outlook for +3% real growth in '11.
19:37
US OUTLOOK:

From Citi: "While the unemployment rate may rebound slightly in the coming month, other data suggest the fundamental trend in unemployment is gradually down."

19:19
GOLD:

Gold holds at $1369.20/oz, up from an earlier low of $1353.30 and a high of $1378.74. The market watches to see if gold can break back above the 55-day moving average at $1378.35, decisively broken Thursday.

18:54
Dow -59.03 at 11638.28, Nasdaq -20.71 at 2689.18, S&P -7.36 at 1266.49

Airline stocks are having another strong session. Their collective 0.8% gain flies in the face of the broader market's move lower. Alaska Air (ALK 62.70, +3.00) is currently one of the strongest performers in the airline space. Its 5% surge has taken the stock to levels not seen since 1998. As a group, airline stocks are already up 4.5% this year. That comes on top of the near 40% annual gain scored by the Amex Airline Index in 2010.

18:42
EUR/USD recovers

EUR/USD edges higher as market players pare back shorts heading into the weekend. The pair will need to close back over $1.2965/70, the lows seen Dec (old support/now resistance) for any kind of upward momentum to be seen, traders say. In the bigger picture, the euro will need to again vault its 200-day moving average, in place at $1.3076 Friday. For now, traders are content to sell any larger euro rallies. The euro has fallen 3.9% from peak to trough ($1.3433 Jan 4 to Fri lows) in 2011 so far.

18:20
US focus: Dollar fluctuates as employers added fewer jobs last month than forecast

The dollar fluctuated against major counterparts as the U.S. payrolls report showed employers added fewer jobs last month than economists forecast while the unemployment rate dropped.
Nonfarm payrolls rose by 103,000 in December after a revised increase of 71,000 in the previous month, the Labor Department reported. The median forecast of 78 economists in a Bloomberg News survey was for a gain of 150,000. The unemployment rate slid to 9.4 percent from 9.8 percent.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the drop in unemployment is likely to be slow even with a pickup in U.S. growth, signaling no change in the central bank’s monetary stimulus.
“Maybe some of the enthusiasm for long-dollar exposure has been undercut,” said Alan Ruskin at Deutsche Bank AG. “The headline number was obviously much softer than expected.”
The U.S. currency has rallied since Dec. 14, when the Fed said the economic recovery is continuing and maintained a $600 billion program of debt purchases under the second round of quantitative easing. The dollar got a boost as President Barack Obama signed into law last month an extension of tax cuts.
The dollar will fall about 12% to $1.48 per euro and drop 7% to Y78 by the end of 2011 as the Fed keeps interest rates close to zero and the fiscal deficit stays near a record, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.
“U.S. growth alone cannot support the dollar as it’s highly unlikely that the Fed will be lifting interest rates in the next 12 months,” said John Normand, strategy at JPMorgan.

The euro was headed for a weekly drop of 3.1% against the dollar on speculation Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis will persist. The decrease in the euro would be the biggest since it fell 3.2% during the five days ended Nov. 26.
European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said in text of an address today in Bavaria that governments shouldn’t rely on the ECB to get Europe out of its debt crisis and urged more efforts to tighten fiscal rules.

18:09
USD/JPY weakens

Dragged lower by euro-yen, USD/JPY has slipped to Y82.85 as bids to Y82.80 are slowly eroded. While Y82.80 area contained slippage Thursday, accompanied by chatter of Asian sovereign demand, no such talk has been heard today, one trader says. Risk may be for stops below that level to trigger a fast move to Y82.50 if exposed.

17:43
JAPAN:

Barclays Capital strategists note that both Japan's Nikkei 225 and Topix indexes have broke above key Fibonacci swing targets at 10,481 and 927.52 respectively,"While we had been looking for a bullish break in the range, we did not anticipate one so soon," they say. Barclays targets an initial test of 10,675 in the Nikkei, the "same area as the equal head and shoulders target which comes in at 10,700." The Topix "equal swing target" comes in at 948.54.The Nikkei closed at 10,541.04.

17:24
EUR/USD remains under pressure

EUR/USD failed to recover to $1.2945 area after seeing lows around $1.2915, the recovery likely as much due to a let-up in selling ahead of the London close as anything else, though a clarification of earlier SNB/Portugal bonds talk may also be helping.

14:34
Before the bell: U.S. stocks were headed for a slightly lower open Friday, as investors digested the government's latest reading on the labor market.


The U.S. economy added slightly fewer-than-expecte jobs in December, but the unemployment rate edged lower than economists had anticipated.

Dow Jones industrial average (INDU), S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq (COMP) futures were down modestly ahead of the opening bell. Futures measure current index values against perceived future performance. Futures had been pointing to a slightly higher open ahead of the report but turned negative after the headline number disappointed.

Wall Street has been gearing up for this report all week, keeping trading somewhat volatile as investors placed bets on whether lagging employment is starting to pick up.

"It was generally a little on the weak side -- not only relative to expectations but also relative to where jobs had been running beforehand," said Bruce McCain, chief market strategist at Key Private Bank. "While it's going to weigh on the market a little, I suspect in the end it's not going to have a huge effect given the general improvement in economic data recently."

Choppy trading is likely to continue over the next couple weeks as investors continue to digest the strong gains logged in December, he said.

On Thursday, stocks ended mixed as the dollar strengthened. Investors spent the day mulling a rise in jobless claims, and softer-than-expected same-store retail sales.

Economy: The government's monthly jobs report showed employers boosted payrolls by 103,000 last month. That was lower than expected, with a CNNMoney survey of 27 economists looking for a 150,000 gain last month.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate dropped to 9.4% from 9.8%.

The biggest risk for the market in 2011 is ...
Earlier in the week, investors weighed a strong report on private sector payrolls against disappointing jobless claims data.

In the afternoon, the government will release a report on consumer credit for November. Economists predict a decline in total borrowing of $2.5 billion -- down from an increase of $3.4 billion the previous month.

Companies: Before the opening bell, KB Home (KBH) released quarterly earnings results that beat expectations. The company reported earnings per share of 23 cents, compared to the loss of 17 cents expected by analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters.

13:53
CANADA: Canadian jobs data released earlier showed net jobs growth of 22K in December, largely in line with expectation.
Stewart Hall of HSBC notes that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.6%, largely due to the participation rate holding steady at 66.9%. There is not much to read into the data other than "...jobs growth is just keeping up with the natural growth in the labor force," he says.
13:08
European focus: the dollar rose to a two-week high against the yen before a U.S. report today that may show employers added jobs for a third month.


The euro headed for a weekly loss versus 15 of its 16 major counterparts amid concern that European governments will struggle to raise funds as the region’s fiscal crisis lingers. The Australian dollar traded at a two-week low against its U.S. counterpart as worsening floods hampered the South Pacific nation’s coal industry. An ADP Employer Services report on Jan. 5 showed U.S. companies hired almost triple the number of people estimated by economists.

“It’s payrolls and looking at the better tone of the dollar this week, or at least since the ADP; the market is clearly expecting something fairly decent,” said Jane Foley, a senior foreign-exchange strategist at Rabobank International in London. “Dollar-yen is just displaying the broad-based dollar strength that we’ve seen this week.”

The dollar rose 0.2 percent to 83.51 yen at 10:08 a.m. in London, after touching 83.60 yen, the highest level since Dec. 22. The euro depreciated for a fifth day to $1.2992, after earlier falling to $1.2961, the weakest since Sept. 15. The single currency was at 108.51 yen from 108.35 yen.

Australia’s currency bought 99.17 U.S. cents from 99.44 cents yesterday, extending declines into a fifth day. The Aussie earlier touched 99.08 cents, the least since Dec. 21, and is set for a 3.1 percent drop this week. The so-called Aussie was little changed at 82.82 yen from 82.85 yen.

Economists have raised forecasts for the number of jobs added by U.S. employers in December after a report this week showed the biggest jump in company payrolls since records began in 2001.

EUR/USD the pair keeps flatbound. 
GBP/USD the pound is trading rangebound.
USD/JPY the yen is trading flatbound. 

The main event starts at 1330GMT with US Labor Market Data, where non-farm payrolls are expected to rise 160,000 in December following the surprisingly weak 39,000 rise in November. Private payrolls are now seen up 180,000, as ADP predicted a near 300,000 gain. The unemployment rate is forecast to fall to 9.7% from 9.8% in November, though annual revision to the household survey data could impact the reported monthly rates for the last year. Hourly earnings are expected to post a 0.1% rise, while the average workweek is forecast to hold 
steady at 34.3 hours in December. 


12:29
USD/CAD: пара преодолела поддержку на C$0.9960 до C$0.9938 на фоне публикации несколько лучших данных по рынку труда, чем ожидалось. Целью теперь является область C$0.9920-C$0.9890.
11:51
GREECE: Greek PDMA announced it will auction 26-week T-bill on Jan 11 for E1.5bln
11:35
European focus: the dollar rose to a two-week high against the yen before a U.S. report today that may show employers added jobs for a third month.


The euro headed for a weekly loss versus 15 of its 16 major counterparts amid concern that European governments will struggle to raise funds as the region’s fiscal crisis lingers. The Australian dollar traded at a two-week low against its U.S. counterpart as worsening floods hampered the South Pacific nation’s coal industry. An ADP Employer Services report on Jan. 5 showed U.S. companies hired almost triple the number of people estimated by economists.

“It’s payrolls and looking at the better tone of the dollar this week, or at least since the ADP; the market is clearly expecting something fairly decent,” said Jane Foley, a senior foreign-exchange strategist at Rabobank International in London. “Dollar-yen is just displaying the broad-based dollar strength that we’ve seen this week.”

The dollar rose 0.2 percent to 83.51 yen at 10:08 a.m. in London, after touching 83.60 yen, the highest level since Dec. 22. The euro depreciated for a fifth day to $1.2992, after earlier falling to $1.2961, the weakest since Sept. 15. The single currency was at 108.51 yen from 108.35 yen.

Australia’s currency bought 99.17 U.S. cents from 99.44 cents yesterday, extending declines into a fifth day. The Aussie earlier touched 99.08 cents, the least since Dec. 21, and is set for a 3.1 percent drop this week. The so-called Aussie was little changed at 82.82 yen from 82.85 yen.

Economists have raised forecasts for the number of jobs added by U.S. employers in December after a report this week showed the biggest jump in company payrolls since records began in 2001.

09:30
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3:Y84.50 (high of December)
Resistance 2:Y83.90 (Dec 21 high)
Resistance 1:Y83,60 (session high)
Current price: Y83.48
Support 1:Y83.20 (session low)
Support 2:Y82.90 (Jan 6 low)

Support 3:Y82.60 (38,2 % FIBO Y80,90-Y83,60)

Comments: the pair becomes stronger. The nearest resistance - Y83,60. Above growth is possible to Y83.90. The nearest support - Y83,20. Below losses are possible to Y82.90.

09:11
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.5590 (resistance line from Dec 31)
Resistance 2: $ 1.5560 (Jan 6 high)

Resistance 1: $ 1.5475 (session high)
Current price: $1.5436
Support 1 : $1.5430 (Jan  low, session low)
Support 2 : $1.5350 (around of Dec 22, 28, 29 and 30 low)
Support 3 : $1.5290 (low of September)

Comments: the pair decreases. The nearest support - $1,5430. Below decrease is possible to $1.5350. The nearest resistance - $1,5475. Above growth is possible to $1,5560.

09:08
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.3200 (50.0 % FIBO $1.3430-$ 1.2970)
Resistance 2: $ 1.3150 (38,2 % FIBO $1.3430-$ 1.2970)
Resistance 1: $ 1.3020 (session high)
Current price: $1.2990
Support 1 : $1.2970 (session low, low of November and December)
Support 2 : $1.2800 (61,8 % FIBO $1.1870-$ 1.4280)
Support 3 : $1.2650 (low of September)

Comments: the pair remains under pressure. The nearest support - $1,2970. Below decrease is possible to $1.2800. The nearest resistance - $1,3020. Above growth is possible to $1,3150.

07:19
Schedule for today, Friday, Jan'07'2011:

07:00     Germany     Current account (November) unadjusted, bln    12.0    -    12.1 (11.7)
07:00     Germany     Trade balance (November) unadjusted, bln    11.8    15.0    14.2
07:00     Germany     Retail sales (November) real adjusted    -2.4%    1.0%    2.3%
07:00     Germany     Retail sales (November) real unadjusted Y/Y    2.0%    3.1%    -0.7%
08:00     UK     Halifax house price index (December)         -0.4%    -0.1%
08:00     UK     Halifax house price index (December) 3m Y/Y         -0.8%    -0.7%
10:00     EU(16)     Unemployment (November)         10.1%    10.1%
10:00     EU(16)     GDP (Q3) revised         0.4%    0.4%
10:00     EU(16)     GDP (Q3) revised Y/Y         1.9%    1.9%
11:00     Germany     Industrial production (November) seasonally adjusted         -0.3%    2.9%
11:00     Germany     Industrial production (November) not seasonally adjusted, workday adjusted Y/Y         10.6%    11.7%
12:00     Canada     Employment (December)         -    +15.2
12:00     Canada     Unemployment rate (December)         -    7.6%
13:30     USA     Nonfarm payrolls (December)         +140K    +39K
13:30     USA     Unemployment rate (December)         9.7%    9.8%
13:30     USA     Average hourly earnings (December)         0.1%    0.0%
13:30     USA     Average workweek (December)         34.3    34.3
20:00     USA     Consumer credit (November), bln         2.0    3.4

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