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06.05.2011
19:01
US: Mar consumer credit +$6b
18:54
Oil extend losses to over $2, to $97.80.
18:53
Dow +55.21 at 12639.38, Nasdaq +17.28 at 2832.00, S&P +5.36 at 1340.46

Stocks have been grinding lower amid a gradual selling effort. The major equity averages are now at session lows.
Energy stocks have made one of the most pronounced reversals. The sector had been up in excess of 2% this morning, but now it is only up 0.2% for the session. Telecom stocks are also up 0.2%, as a group. The two sectors are presently tied for the worst performers.
Industrial stocks are now this session's frontrunners. The sector's 1.0% gain comes amid leadership from 3M (MMM 95.90, +0.98) and United Technologies (UTX 89.45, +0.92).

17:59
American focus:

The euro fell against all of its most-traded counterparts after Der Spiegel magazine reported that debt-strapped Greece may stop using the currency.
The European currency reached a two-week low against the dollar after the magazine said Greece is considering reintroducing its own currency and that the European Commission called a meeting to discuss the move. A spokesman for Luxembourg’s Jean-Claude Juncker, who leads euro-region finance ministers, denied the report.
“It does bring to the forefront the existential concerns about the euro,” said Samarjit Shankar, a managing director for the foreign-exchange group in Boston at Bank of New York Mellon, the world’s largest custodial bank, with more than $20 trillion in assets under administration. “If in the next few weeks and months there is more news flow about a possible exit by one or more countries from the European monetary union, then undoubtedly it will be a negative for the currency because it strikes at the root of its existence.”

17:27
HSBC on US jobs

"private sector employment has shown steady improvement since the turn of the year, average gains of 214,000 a month compared to 78,000 a year ago. We expect continued gains that should average close to 240,000 a month for the rest of the year.

16:40
EUR/USD under pressure

Despite denials of the Greek story (considering pulling out of the eurozone, the euro presses lower, taking out earlier lows around $1.4450/55 to post a new low near $1.4422. Medium demand at $1.4420 and minor demand at $1.4400. ahead of $1.4390/70.

16:16
Dow +164.16 at 12748.33, Nasdaq +40.70 at 2855.42, S&P +18.28 at 1353.38

Stocks have steadily extended their advance so that the three major equity averages are at fresh session highs with gains comfortably above 1%.
Natural resource plays continue to attract the most support. In turn, the materials sector is up 2.0% and the energy sector is up 2.2%. Even though natural resource plays are in such strong shape, Olympic Steel (ZEUS 27.82, +0.15) is only up moderately after it posted for the latest quarter earnings that greatly exceeded what had been expected. Peers US Steel (X 46.41, +0.29) and AK Steel (AKS 15.07, -0.02) are laggards, too.

16:12
A sources story in Der Spiegel on line says that Greece is considering withdrawing from the eurozone.

Greek fin mins and representatives of the EC are holding a secret crisis meeting in Luxembourg Friday night.

15:39
FED: Dudley says unemploy rate is volatile and sees payroll growth accelerating over a 6-24 mounth period.
15:15
Dow +137.37 at 12721.54, Nasdaq +31.70 at 2846.42, S&P +14.60 at 1349.70
14:36
CS on Payrolls

Analysts at CS say payrolls were better than unemploy rate. "There was a big upside surprise on payrolls considering most other data (claims, ADP, ISM services) were pointing to a slowdown. Total jobs rose 244K, the third straight month of job gains well over 200K. The three month average is 233K."


14:25
CANDAA, BOC's Carney: Expects a strong Q1 in Canada, but worries about auto plants.
  • commodity boom boosted Canada;
  • weaker C$ hurt mfg;
  • need to see emerg mkts tighten aggressively;
  • Canada growth should be 2-2.5% this yr.



14:21
CANDAA, BOC's Carney: Expects a strong Q1 in Canada, but worries about auto plants.
  • commodity boom boosted Canada;
  • weaker C$ hurt mfg;
  • need to see emerg mkts tighten aggressively;
  • Canada growth should be 2-2.5% this yr.



14:14
EUR/USD bounced to $1.4570 quickly after falling to $1.4450 following the Payrolls report. But rate failed to set above and retreated to current $1.4500.
13:57
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.4565, $1.4750, $1.4815, $1.4865
USD/JPY Y80.60, Y80.65, Y81.00, Y81.20, Y82.00-05
EUR/JPY Y118.45, Y114.65
GBP/USD $1.6250, $1.6300, $1.6600
USD/CHF Chf0.8700
AUD/USD $1.0775
GBP/NZD NZ$2.0880

13:34
Market talk:

Traders continue digisting Payrolls that showed +244k Apr jobs containing +26.8k food services jobs and this possibly reflecting MacDonalds hiring. But the MacDonalds 'national hiring day' was Apr 19 and the payroll reference period contains the week of Apr 12.

13:22
Before the bell: Strong Payrolls may support stocks

Stocks were set to rally at Friday's open, after the government reported that the economy added 244,000 jobs in April, much better than expected.
The unemployment rate ticked higher to 9% from 8.8% but investors were clearly tuned into the top-line number.  Economists were expecting the report to show that employers added only 185,000 jobs in the month and the unemployment rate to remain 8.8%.



Commodities: Oil, gold, and silver continued to slide Friday.
Just a week ago, silver prices were within spitting distance of breaching $50 an ounce. On Friday, silver futures for July delivery dropped $2.45, or 7%, to $33.80 an ounce.
Gold futures for June delivery fell $2.20 to $1,479.20 an ounce.
Oil for June delivery slipped $2.02, or 2%, to $97.78 a barrel, after plunging 8.6% to close below $100 a barrel Thursday.
Companies: After the closing bell Thursday, insurer giant AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) reported a loss from continuing operations of $1.41 per share for the first three months of the year, compared to a profit of $2.16 per share over the same period a year ago.
Shares of AIG were down 1.6% in premarket trade.


13:00
EUR/USD above $1.4500

EUR/USD recovered to current $1.4533 after it earlier dipped to the lows on $1.4450 after a strong Payrolls report. Offers expected $1.4550.

12:44
Reaction on news:

Stronger than expected NFP damped by jump in unemployment headline sees dollar strengthen with EUR/USD fell to the lows around $1.4450, while stocks push sharply higher.

12:31
US: Apr AHE +2.1% Y/Y
12:30
US: Apr Unemploy rate +0.2 pt to 9%
12:30
US: Apr employ report +244k payrolls
12:08
Payrolls come at 12:30 GMT with median +185,000

Markets remain calm today awaiting for US Non-Farm payrolls figures to asses the strength of current recovery on the world's largest economy. The median estimate is +185,000, but the range is between 175,000 and 195,000 in April, following a 216,000 increment in March and 194,00 in February.
The jobless rate may have held at 8.8%.
The jobless rate dropped a percentage point over the four months ended March to reach 8.8%, the lowest level in two years. Estimates for April range from 8.6% to 9%.
For the full year, economists expect 2.3 million new jobs and an unemployment rate of 8.4% by year end.


The Labor Department said that claims for unemployment benefits rose to 474K last week, the highest level in eight months.
ADP Employer Services data showed employment at U.S. companies increased by 179,000 jobs in April, compared with a revised 207,000 in March. The median estimate called for a 198,000 advance this month.

11:51
EU session review: Canadian Dollar rises after employment report; Euro set stable; US Dollar looks for Payrolls

Data released:
07:00     UK     Halifax house price index (April)         0.3%    0.1%
07:00     UK     Halifax house price index (April) 3m Y/Y         -2.9%    -2.9%
08:30     UK     PPI (Output) (April) unadjusted    0.8%    0.8%    0.9%
08:30     UK     PPI (Output) (April) unadjusted Y/Y    5.3%    5.2%    5.4%
08:30     UK     PPI Output ex FDT (April) adjusted    0.6%    0.3%    0.4%
08:30     UK     PPI Output ex FDT (April) unadjusted Y/Y    3.4%    -    3.0%
08:30     UK     PPI (Input) (April) adjusted    2.6%    1.0%    3.7%
08:30     UK     PPI (Input) (April) unadjusted Y/Y    17.6%    15.6%    14.6%
10:00     Germany     Industrial production (March) seasonally adjusted    0.7%    0.5%    1.7 (1.6)%
10:00     Germany     Industrial production (March) not seasonally adjusted, workday adjusted Y/Y    11.2%    10.6%    15.2 (14.8)%
11:00     Canada     Employment (April)        +58.3    -1.5
11:00     Canada     Unemployment rate (April)        7.6%    7.7%

Canada’s dollar advanced against its U.S. counterpart for the first time in five days as a report showed employers added more jobs in April than economists forecast.
Employers added a net 58,300 jobs in April after a decrease of 1,500 in the previous month, Statistics Canada said. The median forecast of economists was for an increase of 20,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 7.6%.
The euro capped yesterday's fall on Friday after ECB policymaker Ewald Nowotny said that markets had overinterpreted the central bank's stance on interest rates the previous day.
Yesterday the euro plunged across the board on Thursday after comments from the head of the European Central Bank suggested interest rates were unlikely to rise next month. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet failed to use the key words "strong vigilance" in his comments on inflation.

EUR/USD remained within the $1.4510/90 range most of the session. But euro resumed selling ahead of US data.

GBP/USD printed lows around $1.6350 before recovered to $1.6433. Currently rate weakens again, holding around $1.6416.

USD/JPY managed to gain to Y80.70, but it failed to hold higher. Ahead of NY opening it holds around Y80.23.

Today's focus is on Payrolls report due at 12:30 GMT.
Payrolls rose by 185,000 workers last month compared with a 216,000 advance in March, according to the median forecast of economists. The jobless rate may have held at 8.8%.
The jobless rate dropped a percentage point over the four months ended March to reach 8.8%, the lowest level in two years. Estimates for April range from 8.6% to 9%.

11:38
EUR/GBP refreshed lows

EUR/GBP still correcting after it reached highs on stg0.9043 yesterday. Cross currently holds around stg0.8840 with stops mentioned under stg0.8840. A break here to open a deeper move toward stg0.8810/00. Resistance now seen toward stg0.8900.

11:31
Gold and Silver

Gold hit a morning's low of $1476.80 in Europe and currently trades around $1485.50.
Silver heading lower again to a day's low of $34.00 not seen since Mar 17, on further unwinding ahead of this afternoon's payroll data. A break down through $33.57 now likely to spiral down to $31.70/75.

11:24
ECB TRICHET: Comments on CNBC
  • Will take appropriate decision
  • Everyone now says ecb was right to hike in Dec. 2005
  • Oil price is a 'hump' in the CPI
  • Must not let 2nd round effects take hold
  • With right decisions can avoid 2nd round effects
  • We have great unity of purpose with other central banks
  • Are doing what is needed for price stability
  • I trust what u.s. officials said on U.S. dollar
11:12
ECB TRICHET: Comments on CNBC
  • Will take appropriate decision
  • Everyone now says ecb was right to hike in Dec. 2005
  • Oil price is a 'hump' in the CPI
  • Must not let 2nd round effects take hold
  • With right decisions can avoid 2nd round effects
  • We have great unity of purpose with other central banks
  • Are doing what is needed for price stability
  • I trust what u.s. officials said on U.S. dollar
11:00
Canada: Apr employment +58.3k
11:00
Canada: Apr unemployment 7.6%
10:56
USD/CAD weakens ahead of Canada data

USD/CAD holds around session lows on C$0.9629. rate trades lower C$0.9660 ahead of Canadian jobs data prompting talk that numbers could come in on the stronger side. Rate holds heavy.

10:45
EU focus: Euro jumps after Nowotny says ECB 'overinterpreted'

The euro jumped on Friday after ECB policymaker Ewald Nowotny said that markets had overinterpreted the central bank's stance on interest rates the previous day.
The single currency rose after Nowotny said the central bank's stance should not be interpreted as dovish.
Yesterday the euro plunged across the board on Thursday, on track for its worst day against the dollar since November, after comments from the head of the European Central Bank suggested interest rates were unlikely to rise next month.
ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet, in remarks after a policy meeting where the central bank left interest rates unchanged at 1.25%, failed to use the key words "strong vigilance" in his comments on inflation. In the past, the ECB regularly used the phrase to signal a rate hike was only a month away.
"Going into the meeting, the market was split on the issue of whether the next hike would be in June or July, but Trichet quickly made it clear that the ECB will not hike at the June meeting," said Frank Hansen, senior economist at Danske Bank.
Meanwhile, today's focus is on Payrolls report due at 12:30 GMT.
Payrolls rose by 185,000 workers last month compared with a 216,000 advance in March, according to the median forecast of economists. The jobless rate may have held at 8.8%.
The jobless rate dropped a percentage point over the four months ended March to reach 8.8%, the lowest level in two years. Estimates for April range from 8.6% to 9%.

10:31
EUR/USD under pressure

EUR/USD holds heavy, extending lows to stg0.8855. Cross probes support between stg0.8855/45. Stops noted on a break of stg0.8840.

10:15
OIL: June WTI recovers after earlier lows of $94.62 with a stronger recovery to $98.74, before easing back to $98.40.
10:00
GERMANY: Industry output +0.7% m/m and +11.2% y/y
09:49
ECB TRICHET: Drop in commodity prices 'good news'; it helps economy to recover
09:32
FTSE -0.39% 5,897, CAC +0.18% 4,012, DAX +0.40% 7,407
09:18
ECB NOWOTNY: Should be no idea about ECB being dovish

Mkts definitely over-interpreted ECB yesterday
Need full info especially about medium-term inflation
Can decide in June on policy w/new fcasts in hand
ECB never pre-commits
Need m-term view on commodities, euro drop
Must see commodities in context of previous rises.

09:03
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.4565, $1.4750, $1.4815, $1.4865
USD/JPY Y80.60, Y80.65, Y81.00, Y81.20, Y82.00-05
EUR/JPY Y118.45, Y114.65
GBP/USD $1.6250, $1.6300, $1.6600
USD/CHF Chf0.8700
AUD/USD $1.0775
GBP/NZD NZ$2.0880




09:01
Asian session: The yen fell

The yen fell from a seven-week high on speculation Japan will intervene to curb recent gains that may hurt the overseas competitiveness of the nation’s exporters.
The Australian dollar surged after the nation’s central bank said it will likely need to raise interest rates “at some point.” 
The Dollar Index slid from near the strongest in a week before a U.S. report economists said will show job growth slowed in April.
The dollar declined before data today that may show the U.S. job market’s recovery is losing momentum. U.S. employers added 185,000 jobs in April after an increase of 216,000 positions in the previous month, according to the median forecast of economists in a  survey before the Labor Department’s report.
The euro strengthened  against the dollar as economists surveyed by Bloomberg News said Germany’s industrial output rose 0.5 percent in March, after a 1.6 percent increase the prior month. The Economy Ministry in Berlin releases the data today.

EUR/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1,4530-$ 1,4580. 
GBP/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1,6370-$ 1,6430. 
USD/JPY: the pair shown high in the field of Y80,60 then slightly decreased.

German industrial output data for March is also due, at 1000GMT.
The main event comes at 1230GMT, when non-farm payrolls are expected to rise 185,000 in April. Private payrolls are seen up 200,000. The unemployment rate is forecast to stay at 8.8% after four straight declines. Hourly earnings are expected to post a 0.2% rise following flat readings in February and March, while the average workweek is forecast to hold steady at 34.3 hours for another month.  


08:34
UK DATA:

 

 Apr producer output prices +0.8% m/m; +5.3% y/y 
Apr producer input prices +2.6% m/m; +17.6% y/y 
08:17
Asian stocks close:

Hang Seng -0.44% 23,159.14
Shanghai Composite -0.30% 2,863.89
Nikkei -1.45%  9,859.2

07:58
Forex: Thursday's review

The dollar strengthened from almost a three-year low even as claims for unemployment benefits jumped last week and worker productivity slowed in the first quarter, encouraging the Federal Reserve to keep borrowing costs low. 
Applications for jobless benefits jumped by 43,000 to 474,000 in the week ended April 30, the most since August, Labor Department figures showed today. The measure of employee output per hour increased at a 1.6 percent annual rate after a 2.9 percent gain in the prior three months, other data from the Labor Department showed.
U.S. employers added 185,000 jobs in April after a 216,000 increase in March, the median estimate of economists survey forecast before data due tomorrow. 
The euro dropped the most against the dollar in two weeks and slid versus the yen after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet signaled the ECB may wait until after June to raise interest rates again.
Japan’s currency climbed versus all of its 16 most-traded peers and reached the strongest level in six weeks against the dollar as falling commodities prompted investors to unwind bets in higher-yielding assets financed with yen. Currencies of commodity-exporting nations including Australia, Norway and Canada plunged. 
The ECB left its main refinancing rate unchanged after boosting it a quarter-percentage point in April to 1.25 percent. Trichet, at a news conference in Helsinki, refrained from using the phrase “strong vigilance,” which might have signaled a June rate increase. He instead said inflation risks will be watched “very closely.”
While inflation accelerated to 2.8 percent last month and economic growth is gaining momentum, higher borrowing costs may exacerbate Europe’s debt crisis, which has already forced Greece, Ireland and Portugal to ask for external help. 

EUR/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair decreased in around $1,4540, lost more than 350 points.
GBP/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair decreased below a mark $1,6400.
USD/JPY: the pair shown low in the field of Y79,50, then restored and finished the session in the field of Y80,30.


German industrial output data for March is also due, at 1000GMT.

UK data includes PPI Producer Prices at 0830GMT, followed by SMMTNew Car Registrations data at 0900GMT and also Q1 Insolvency Data at 0930GMT. PPI data for April is expected to see output prices at 0.7% m/m, 5.1% y/y with input prices up by 1.6% m/m, 16.3% y/y and core output prices up 0.4% m/m, 3.1% y/y.
The main event comes at 1230GMT, when non-farm payrolls are expected to rise 185,000 in April. Private payrolls are seen up 200,000. The unemployment rate is forecast to stay at 8.8% after four straight declines. Hourly earnings are expected to post a 0.2% rise following flat readings in February and March, while the average workweek is forecast to hold steady at 34.3 hours for another month.  

07:21
Stocks: Thursday's review

Japan's market was closed for a holiday.
European stocks fell for a third day as bank earnings disappointed, commodities plunged and a jump in U.S. jobless-benefit claims fueled concern that the recovery of the world’s largest economy may falter.
Lloyds Banking Group Plc (LLOY) slumped the most in almost a year after reporting a quarterly loss. Societe Generale SA, France’s second-largest bank by market value, dropped 5 percent as profit missed analyst estimates. Fresnillo Plc (FRES), the world’s biggest primary silver producer, and Essar Energy Plc (ESSR) sank more than 4 percent as the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 raw materials tumbled the most in almost two years.
Factory orders in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, unexpectedly dropped in March, led by a slump in demand for investment goods at home and abroad. Orders, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, slid 4 percent from February, the Economy Ministry in Berlin said.
European stocks pared their decline as European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said inflation risks will be watched “very closely,” signaling the ECB may wait until after June to raise interest rates again. The ECB and the Bank of England both kept their benchmark rates unchanged today, as forecast by all economists
U.S. stocks fell, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lower for a fourth straight day, as a report showed that more Americans unexpectedly filed first-time claims for unemployment insurance and commodities slumped.
Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) and Chevron Corp. (CVX) dropped at least 1.4 percent as oil retreated. General Motors Co. (GM) slumped 3.8 percent after saying that Chinese sales declined. The NYSE Arca Airline Index rose 1.5 percent as crude extended its loss since April 29 to 8.2 percent, boosting optimism carriers’ costs will fall.
More Americans unexpectedly filed first-time claims for unemployment insurance payments last week, pushed up by three factors that normal seasonal variations failed to take into account, the Labor Department said.
Applications for jobless benefits jumped by 43,000 to 474,000 in the week ended April 30, the most since August, Labor Department figures showed today. A spring break holiday in New York, a new emergency benefits program in Oregon and auto shutdowns caused by the disaster in Japan were the main reasons for the surge, a Labor Department spokesman said as the data was released to the press.

07:09
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3: Y81.70 (May 2 high)
Resistance 2:Y81.20 (May 4 high)
Resistance 1:Y80.60 (session high) 
Current price: Y80.53
Support 1:Y80.25 (session low) 
Support 2:Y79.55 (May 5 low) 
Support 3:Y79.00 (Mar 18 low)  
Comments: the pair become stronger. The nearest resistance - Y80.60. Above growth is possible to Y81.20. The nearest support - Y80.25. Below losses are possible to Y79.55. 

07:08
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.8830 (Apr 27 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.8750/60 (Apr 28-29 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.8710 (session high)
Current price: Chf0.8690
Support 1: Chf0.8680 (session low)
Support 2: Chf0.8635 (38.2 % FIBO of yesterday's growth)
Support 3: Chf0.8550 (May 4-5 low)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of the high reached yesterday. The nearest support - Chf0,8680. Below loss may extend to Chf0.8635. The nearest resistance - Chf0.8710. Above is located Chf0.8750/60. 

07:06
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6550 (May 5 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.6470 (resistance  line from May 2)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6430 (session high, Apr 26-27 low)

Current price: $1.6385
Support 1 : $1.6355 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.6220 (Apr 12-13 and 19 low)
Support 3 : $1.6200 (38.2 % FIBO $1.5340-$ 1.6740)
Comments: the pair bargains below a mark $1.6400. The nearest resistance - around $1.6430. Above growth is possible to $1.6470. The nearest support $1.6355. Below is possible testings of around $1.6220. 

06:17
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.4900 (May 5 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.4700 (50.0% FIBO of yesterday's falling)
Resistance 1: $ 1.4585 (session high)
Current price: $1.4538
Support 1 : $1.4510 (sessional low)
Support 2 : $1.4490 (Apr 26 low)
Support 3 : $1.4400 (support  line from Feb 14)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of reached yesterday low. The nearest support $1,4510. Below losses are possible to $1.4490. The nearest resistance - $1.4585. Above growth is possible to $1,4700.

05:58
Schedule for today, Friday, May 06 2011:

07:00     UK     Halifax house price index (April)         0.3%    0.1%
07:00     UK     Halifax house price index (April) 3m Y/Y         -2.9%    -2.9%
08:30     UK     PPI (Output) (April) unadjusted         0.8%    0.9%
08:30     UK     PPI (Output) (April) unadjusted Y/Y         5.2%    5.4%
08:30     UK     PPI (Input) (April) adjusted         1.0%    3.7%
08:30     UK     PPI (Input) (April) unadjusted Y/Y         15.6%    14.6%
10:00     Germany     Industrial production (March) seasonally adjusted         0.5%    1.6%
10:00     Germany     Industrial production (March) not seasonally adjusted, workday adjusted Y/Y         10.6%    14.8%
11:00     Canada     Employment (April)         -    -1.5
11:00     Canada     Unemployment rate (April)         -    7.7%
12:30     USA     Nonfarm payrolls (April)         +198K    +216K
12:30     USA     Unemployment rate (April)         8.8%    8.8%
12:30     USA     Average hourly earnings (April)         -    0.0%
12:30     USA     Average workweek (April)         -    34.3
19:00     USA     Consumer credit (March), bln         5.0    7.6

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