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06.01.2011
20:17
Dow -37.04 at 11685.47, Nasdaq +4.45 at 2706.58, S&P -3.94 at 1272.57
Recent selling has knocked stocks down to new afternoon lows. Tech (+0.7%) and health care (+0.2%) are still the only two sectors that have successfully held on to their gains. Though trade has been without clear direction today, volatility is only up slightly, according to the Volatility Index (VIX). The VIX is currently up 1.3%.
20:11
US OUTLOOK: State St ests Dec payrolls at +196k and says Q4 employment trends probably did not deteriorate.
18:05
American focus: the dollar advanced to a one-month high against the euro before tomorrow’s U.S. payrolls report, forecast to show employers added jobs for a third month and the unemployment rate eased to 9.7 percent.


The euro dropped below the 200-day moving average versus the dollar as the European Union discussed spreading the cost of bank failures. Brazil’s real fell as the central bank set reserve requirements on positions against the dollar held by local banks in a third attempt since October to stem a rally in the currency.

“The dollar is really in demand,” said Kathy Lien, director of currency research at online trader GFT Forex in New York. “Non-farm payrolls are still going to be very good, and the risk of an upside surprise is much more significant than a shortfall. A lot of people are positioning for a stronger number.”

The dollar appreciated 1 percent to $1.3018 per euro at 11:12 a.m. in New York, from $1.3149 yesterday, after touching $1.3013, the strongest level since Dec. 1. The greenback traded at 83.11 yen, compared with 83.25 The euro decreased 1.2 percent to 108.19 yen, from 109.47 yen.

IntercontinentalExchange Inc.’s Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners, advanced for a fourth day, rising as much as 0.7 percent to 80.806, the highest level since Dec. 23.

A December gain of 150,000 in U.S. nonfarm payrolls is the median forecast of 78 economists in a Bloomberg News survey before tomorrow’s Labor Department report. The jobless rate may drop from 9.8 percent.


16:36
BNP Paribas on EUR/USD
Andy Chaveriat, chief technical analyst at BNP Paribas,says the clean break of $1.3055 (Dec 23 low) in the euro targets "strong swing support" at $1.3000/$1.2990. "Only a break of $1.2990 would focus attention on $1.2965/70 pivot support (Nov 30 low), he says.
15:22
Dow -13.09 at 11710.41, Nasdaq +1.46 at 2704.02, S&P -0.80 at 1275.90

After an early slip the stock market attempted to recover to the neutral line, but it was met with resistance there. The early gyrations have made for a rather choppy start.
The stock market's underlying action remains generally mixed, but materials stocks have made a nice move higher. The sector, which slipped to an early loss of 0.2%, has since swung to a 0.4% gain. Dow Chemical (DOW 35.12, +0.44) and Monsanto (MON 71.95, +2.82) are leaders in the group. Monsanto posted this morning better-than-expected earnings and reaffirmed its outlook for fiscal 2011.
Advancing Sectors: Materials (+0.4%), Health Care (+0.3%), Tech (+0.3%), Industrials (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: Energy (-0.4%), Energy (-0.4%), Utilities (-0.3%), Consumer Staples (-0.2%), Financials (-0.1%)

14:55
State Street on NFP
Analyst John Herrmann at State St. says, as mkt gears up for Friday's NFP, "the last time ADP shocked markets with an outlier month-on-month gain, a +264k mom gain in November 2005, private non-farm payrolls did jump an astonishing +304k." He looks for +192k private payrolls and says his strategic view is "higher Treasury yields over the balance of 2011."
14:00
GBP/USD on the rise

Recovery off earlier pullback lows of $1.5466 extends to the topend of reported resistance between $1.5505/15. Above here and rate can edge on toward $1.5540/50, traders say, ahead of earlier highs at $1.5564.

13:15
EUR/USD at lows

Early NY squeezes EUR/USD back to retest earlier lows at $1.3090. Next support seen at $1.3080 ($1.3081 200-dma). The much mentioned $1.3125 digital euro put option that rolls off at the NY cut remains in focus.

13:02
GBP/USD head for $1.5500

GBP/USD lifts to $1.5495 following reports of Asian buying from between $1.5485/90, though reaction seen sluggish. Move up though allows euro-sterling to ease below stg0.8460. Cable resistance now seen between $1.5505/15, a break to open a move on toward $1.5540/50 ahead of earlier highs at $1.5564.

12:48
Re-polled for NFP after the Weds data, and finds the new median est for Dec payrolls is +160k (median for pvt payrolls is +180k).
12:36
EU session review: Euro depreciates on regional sovereign debt

Data released
09:30     UK     CIPS services index (December)    49.7    52.8    53.0
10:00     EU(16)     Economic sentiment index (December)    106.2    105.5    105.1 (105.3)
10:00     EU(16)     Business climate indicator (December)    1.31    1.00    0.91 (0.96)
10:00     EU(16)     Retail sales (November) adjusted    -0.8%    0.1%    0.5%
10:00     EU(16)     Retail sales (November) adjusted Y/Y     0.1%    -    1.8%
11:00     Germany     Manufacturing orders (November) seasonally adjusted    5.2%    0.8%    1.6%
11:00     Germany     Manufacturing orders (November) not seasonally adjusted, workday adjusted Y/Y    20.6%    16.1%    17.9%

The euro fell to its weakest level against the dollar in a week amid concern a weaker recovery in some European nations will perpetuate the region’s debt crisis.
A euro-area services indicator published yesterday fell to 54.2 in December from 55.4. While the German services gauge held at 59.2, above an initial reading of 58.3, the Irish and Italian measures declined, Markit Economics said yesterday.
“Anything that’s perceived to heighten the potential negativity for an investor in the euro zone isn’t particularly encouraging, so this is far from helpful,” said Jeremy Stretch, executive director of foreign-exchange strategy at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce.
The Australian dollar reached a two-week low amid concern flooding will hamper the nation’s economy.
Australia’s dollar weakened for a fourth day versus the dollar. Heavy rain and flooding that’s swept across the state of Queensland may cost more than A$5 billion ($5 billion), the Australian Financial Review reported today, citing state Premier Anna Bligh.
“The question is how much impact the flooding will have on the local economy,” said Keiji Matsumoto, a currency strategist in Tokyo at Nikko Cordial Securities Inc. “Markets may take it as a negative factor for the Aussie.”
The pound declined after data showed U.K. service industries contracted. Markit Economics Ltd. and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply said its gauge of activity fell to 49.7 from 53.0 in November. Economists had forecast a decline to 52.8.

EUR/USD fell from $1.3170 to $1.3090. Rate managed ro recover above $1.3100.

GBP/USD fell sharply from session high on $1.5565 to $1.5464. Currently rate holds around $1.5483.

USD/JPY printed lows on Y82.86 before recovered to Y83.16.

US data sees initial jobless claims scheduled at 1330GMT, when the weekly initial jobless claims are expected to rebound 24,000 to 412,000 in the January 1 holiday week after falling sharply in the previous week after seasonal adjustment.

12:13
CRUDE TECHS:

Bearish daily studies pressure oil lower following high of $92.58 on Monday. Current price action boxed between 5-DMA at $90.51 and 21-DMA at $89.84. Break below the 21-DMA may open the downside to reach strong support seen at $87.33/43, the daily Bollinger band base and the 23.6% Fibonacci of $70.76/92.58. Initial resistance seen as the Jan 5 high and Oct 2008 high around $90.84/99.

12:00
CHINA: PBOC; Stabilizing prices has highest priority

- To maintain yuan at reasonable, balanced level

- To increase exchange rate flexibility

11:24
News reaction:

Release of much stronger than forecast Germany manufacturing orders data only provided a minor added boost to EUR/USD, the rate having recovered off extended lows of $1.3091 in the announcement to around $1.3105 and only extending this move to around $1.3110. Rate currently trades around $1.3106.

11:02
GERMANY: Industrial new orders +5.2% m/m
10:54
EUR/USD under $1.3100

EUR/USD remains under pressure, holding currently at $1.3098. Support comes at 200-dma which today comes in at $1.3081. Bids noted toward $1.3080.

10:51
USD/JPY holds higher

USD/JPY back up through Y83.00 again but progress stuttering with euro-yen remainsing pinned down towards Y109.00. Dollar has edged up to Y83.18 ahead of exporter offers lying at Y83.35/40.

09:33
UK: CIPS Dec svcs PMI 49.7
09:23
FX: Option expiries for today's 1500GMT cut,

EUR/USD: $1.3125, $1.3100, $1.3000, $1.2830
USD/JPY: Y82.00, Y82.60, Y83.55, Y84.00
EUR/JPY: Y109.05, Y110.00
GBP/USD: $1.5615
AUD/USD: $0.9980, $1.0020, $1.0045, $1.0095, $1.0100, $1.0115

09:10
Asian session: The dollar traded near a two-week high against the yen

The dollar traded near a two-week high against the yen as signs of improvement in the U.S. job market added to evidence the recovery in the world’s largest economy is building momentum.
The greenback strengthened against most major counterparts before a report tomorrow that may show U.S. payrolls rose for a third month, increasing the appeal of American assets.
The Australian dollar reached a two-week low amid concern flooding will hamper the South Pacific nation’s economy.
Company employment increased by 297,000 in December, almost triple the median economist estimate, after a revised gain of 92,000 in the previous month, ADP Employer Services reported yesterday. Ten-year Treasury yields climbed 14 basis points to 3.47 percent yesterday in New York.

EUR/USD: the pair decreased in aroun $1,3100.

GBP/USD: the pair was fixed above a mark $1,5500.

USD/JPY: the pair slightly receded from the high reached yesterday.

There is a raft of EMU data at 1000GMT with the economic  sentiment index expected to edge up to 105.4 for December, the business  climate indicator due at the same time and also retail trade for  November expected to come in at 0.1% m/m, 1.8% y/y. At 1100GMT, German manufacturing orders are expected to show a rise of 0.8% m/m, 16.1% y/y.
The UK calendar starts at 0930GMT with UK Official Reserves and also  the CIPS Services PMI release, which is expected to remain steady at  52.9 from 53.0 in November.
US data sees monthly store sales data but scheduled data starts at 1330GMT, when the weekly initial jobless claims are expected to rebound 24,000 to 412,000 in the January 1 holiday week after falling sharply in the previous week after seasonal adjustment. Claims usually jump sharply in early-January prior to seasonal adjustment. US data then continues  with the 1530GMT release of the weekly EIA Natural Gas Stocks data,  while late data sees weekly money supply data at 2130GMT.






08:55
Forex: Wednesday's review
The euro fell against most of its major counterparts as the Swiss National Bank said it won’t accept bonds from some Irish banks as collateral. The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso were the best performers versus the yen on evidence of a North American economic recovery before the U.S. government’s payrolls figures due later this week.
The dollar advanced 1.4 percent to 83.21 yen at 12:16 p.m. in New York, from 82.04 yen yesterday. It rose as much as 1.6 percent in the biggest intraday gain since Sept. 15 and touched 83.36 yen, the highest level since Dec. 23. The dollar may appreciate to 85 yen by the end of the week if the payrolls report is strong, according to Anderson. The euro fell 1.1 percent to $1.3168, from $1.3308.
Company employment increased by 297,000 in December after a revised gain of 92,000 in the previous month, ADP Employer Services reported. The median forecast of 33 economists in a survey was for a gain of 100,000.


EUR/USD: the pair decreased in around $1,3100.

GBP/USD: the pair decreased in around $1,5500.

USD/JPY: the pair become stronger to Y83,00.


There is a raft of EMU data at 1000GMT with the economic  sentiment index expected to edge up to 105.4 for December, the business  climate indicator due at the same time and also retail trade for  November expected to come in at 0.1% m/m, 1.8% y/y. At 1100GMT, German manufacturing orders are expected to show a rise of 0.8% m/m, 16.1% y/y.
The UK calendar starts at 0930GMT with UK Official Reserves and also  the CIPS Services PMI release, which is expected to remain steady at  52.9 from 53.0 in November.
US data sees monthly store sales data but scheduled data starts at 1330GMT, when the weekly initial jobless claims are expected to rebound 24,000 to 412,000 in the January 1 holiday week after falling sharply in the previous week after seasonal adjustment. Claims usually jump sharply in early-January prior to seasonal adjustment. US data then continues  with the 1530GMT release of the weekly EIA Natural Gas Stocks data,  while late data sees weekly money supply data at 2130GMT.

08:44
US Stocks: Wednesday's review

Data helped dissolve a negative tone in early trade, but financials provided the leadership necessary to take the stock market to a fractionally improved two-year high.
Losses among overseas markets weighed on stock futures this morning, but the tone improved with news that the ADP Employment Change reading showed that 300,000 private payrolls were added during December. Many were quick to speculate that since the ADP tally is triple what had been expected, a strong non-farm payrolls report will likely be released this Friday.
Participants didn't respond to the December ISM Services Index, which hit a four-year high of 57.1 to best the Briefing.com consensus call for a reading of 55.7.
Stocks were a bit sluggish in the early going as financials were the only sector to sport a gain in the early going. Financials gradually garnered additional buying and pushed to a 1.2% gain. AIG (AIG 60.95, +4.17) was one of the sector's top performers following news that a $3 billion bid was made for the firm's Taiwan unit.
Strength among financials inspired broader buying, such that utilities (-0.6%) made up the only sector to log a loss. That helped both the S&P 500 and Dow inch past the heights reached earlier this week for fresh two-year highs.
The Nasdaq couldn't quite eclipse the high that it set earlier this week, but it still scored a better gain than either of its counterparts. The Nasdaq was led by a handful of tech plays, namely Apple (AAPL 334.00, +2.71). Qualcomm (QCOM 52.03, +1.06) was also strong after it confirmed plans to acquire Atheros (ATHR 44.64, +0.64) for $45 per share.
Outside of the major averages, the Amex Airline Index ascended to a 1.6% gain following a flurry of monthly traffic reports. The Airline Index is already up 4.0% this year. That only adds to a near 40% annual gain in 2010.
Commodities had a weak start, but were able to rebound. More specifically, the CRB Commodity Index ended the day with a 0.5% gain after it was down 1.0% this morning. Oil was key driver in that bounce; it settled at $90.30 per barrel for a 1.0% gain after it had been down more than 1% even after a larger-than-expected draw from weekly inventories was reported.
Treasuries were trounced today. That left the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note to rise above 3.45% to its highest level this week.

08:03
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3:Y84.50 (high of December)
Resistance 2:Y83.90 (Dec 21 high)
Resistance 1:Y83,50 (session high)
Current price: Y83.12
Support 1:Y82.50 (38.2 % FIBO Y80,90-Y83,40, support line from Jan 3)
Support 2:Y82.20 (50,0 % FIBO Y80,90-Y83,40)
Support 3:Y81.90 (61,8 % FIBO Y80,90-Y83,40)

Comments: the pair bargains in the field of the reached high. The nearest resistance - Y83,50. Above growth is possible to Y83.90. The nearest support - Y82,50. Below losses are possible to Y82.20.

07:59
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9707 (61,8 % FIBO Chf1.0060-Chf0.9300)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9720 (Dec 20 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9680 (session high, 50,0 % FIBO Chf1.0060-Chf0.9300)
Current price: Chf0.9678
Support 1: Chf0.9540 (38,2 % FIBO Chf0,9300-Chf0,9690)
Support 2: Chf0.9490 (50,0 % FIBO Chf0,9300-Chf0,9690)
Support 3: Chf0.9450 (61,8 % FIBO Chf0,9300-Chf0,9690)

Comments: the pair bargains in the field of the reached high. The nearest resistance Chf0,9680. Above is located Chf0.9720. The nearest support Chf0,9540. Below loss may extend to Chf0.9490.

07:56
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.5660 (Dec 31 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.5600 (resistance line from Dec 31)

Resistance 1: $ 1.5530 (session high)
Current price: $1.5505
Support 1 : $1.5470 (support line from Dec 30)
Support 2 : $1.5430 (Jan 3 low)
Support 3 : $1.5350 (around of Dec 22, 28, 29 and 30 low)

Comments: the pair bargains in the field of $1,5500. The nearest support - $1,5470. Below decrease is possible to $1.5430. The nearest resistance - $1,5530. Above growth is possible to $1,5600.

07:52
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.3330 (Jan 5 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.3240 (МА(200) for Н1)
Resistance 1: $ 1.3170 (session high)
Current price: $1.3144
Support 1 : $1.3125 (Jan 5 high, session low)
Support 2 : $1.3075 (around of Dec 21, 22, 27 and 29 low)
Support 3 : $1.2970 (low of December)


Comments: the pair remains under pressure. The nearest support - $1,3125. Below decrease is possible to $1.3075. The nearest resistance - $1,3170. Above growth is possible to $1,3240.

05:59
Schedule for today, Thursday, Jan'01'2011:

08:15    Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Dec)         -0.2%    0.2%    
08:15    Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Dec)         0.3%    0.2%
09:30     UK     CIPS services index (December)         52.8    53.0
10:00     EU(16)     Economic sentiment index (December)         105.5    105.3
10:00     EU(16)     Business climate indicator (December)         1.00    0.96
10:00     EU(16)     Retail sales (November) adjusted         0.1%    0.5%
10:00     EU(16)     Retail sales (November) adjusted Y/Y          -    1.8%
11:00     Germany     Manufacturing orders (November) seasonally adjusted         0.8%    1.6%
11:00     Germany     Manufacturing orders (November) not seasonally adjusted, workday adjusted Y/Y         16.1%    17.9%

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