CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 05-08-2014

(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Light Crude 97.58 +0.21%

Gold 1,289.60 +0.33%

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei 225 15,320.31 -154.19 -1.00%

Hang Seng 24,648.26 +48.18 +0.20%

Shanghai Composite 2,219.95 -3.39 -0.15%

FTSE 100 6,682.48 +4.96 +0.07%

CAC 40 4,232.88 +15.66 +0.37%

Xetra DAX 9,189.74 +35.60 +0.39%

S&P 500 1,920.21 -18.78 -0.97%

NASDAQ 4,352.84 -31.05 -0.71%

Dow Jones 16,429.47 -139.81 -0.84%

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3372 -0,37%

GBP/USD $1,6882 +0,14%

USD/CHF Chf0,9092 +0,30%

USD/JPY Y102,61 +0,07%

EUR/JPY Y137,21 -0,31%

GBP/JPY Y173,22 +0,20%

AUD/USD $0,9303 -0,30%

NZD/USD $0,8461 -0,74%

USD/CAD C$1,0959 +0,50%

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index June 104.8% 105.5%

05:00 Japan Coincident Index June 111.3%

06:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) June -1.7% +0.5%

06:00 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) June +5.5%

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index July -0.6%

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y July +8.8%

07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) July -0.1% -0.5%

07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) July 0.0% 0.0%

08:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) June -0.7% +0.6%

08:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) June +2.3% +1.5%

08:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) June -1.3% +0.7%

08:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) June +3.7% +2.1%

12:30 Canada Trade balance, billions June -0.2 -0.1

12:30 U.S. International Trade, bln June -44.4 -44.2

14:00 United Kingdom NIESR GDP Estimate July +0.9%

14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories July -3.7

23:30 Australia AiG Performance of Construction Index July 51,8

Stock indices closed higher due to the better-than-expected corporate earnings. Bayerische Motoren Werke AG shares reported the better-than-expected second-quarter earnings. Credit Agricole SA shares jumped 2.2% after reporting the better-than-expected second-quarter earnings.

Retail sales in the Eurozone climbed 0.4% in June, in line with expectations, after a 0.3% rise in May. May's figure was revised up from 0.0%.

On a yearly basis, retail sales in the Eurozone jumped 2.4% in June, beating expectations for a 1.2% gain, after a 0.6% increase in May. May's figure was revised down from a 0.7% rise.

Eurozone's services purchasing managers' index rose to 54.2 in July from 52.8 in June, missing expectations for an increase to 54.4.

Germany's services purchasing managers' index increased to 56.7 in July from 54.5 in June, exceeding expectations for a rise to 56.6.

France's services purchasing managers' index climbed to 50.4 in July from 48.2 in June, in line with expectations.

Services purchasing managers' index in the UK increased to 59.1 in July from 57.7 in June, beating expectations for a rise to 58.1.

Deutsche Post AG shares climbed 2.2% after posting better-than-projected corporate earnings.

Bilfinger SE dropped 9.7% after the company cut its full-year forecast.

Indexes on the close:

Name Price Change Change %

FTSE 100 6,682.48 +4.96 +0.07%

DAX 9,189.74 +35.60 +0.39%

CAC 40 4,232.88 +15.66 +0.37%

The U.S. dollar increased against the most major currencies after the better-than-expected ISM service sector activity in the U.S. and factory orders in the U.S. The ISM non-manufacturing PMI increased to 58.7 in July, from 56.0 in June, exceeding expectations for a rise to 56.6. That was the highest level since January 2008.

Factory orders in the U.S. jumped 1.1% in June, beating expectations for a 0.6% rise, after a 0.6% fall in May. May's figure was revised down from a 0.5% decline.

The euro dropped against the U.S. dollar after mixed economic data from the Eurozone. Retail sales in the Eurozone climbed 0.4% in June, in line with expectations, after a 0.3% rise in May. May's figure was revised up from 0.0%.

On a yearly basis, retail sales in the Eurozone jumped 2.4% in June, beating expectations for a 1.2% gain, after a 0.6% increase in May. May's figure was revised down from a 0.7% rise.

Eurozone's services purchasing managers' index rose to 54.2 in July from 52.8 in June, missing expectations for an increase to 54.4.

Germany's services purchasing managers' index increased to 56.7 in July from 54.5 in June, exceeding expectations for a rise to 56.6.

France's services purchasing managers' index climbed to 50.4 in July from 48.2 in June, in line with expectations.

The British pound increased against the U.S. dollar after the better-than-expected services purchasing managers' index in the UK, but later lost its gains. Services purchasing managers' index in the UK increased to 59.1 in July from 57.7 in June, beating expectations for a rise to 58.1.

The New Zealand dollar declined against the U.S dollar in the absence of any major economic reports in New Zealand.

The Australian dollar traded higher against the U.S. dollar after the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision, but dropped after the better-than-expected ISM service sector activity in the U.S. and factory orders in the U.S. The RBA kept its interest rate unchanged at 2.50%. This decision was expected by analysts.

The RBA said its accommodative monetary policy should provide support to demand and help growth to strengthen over time. Australia's central bank added that inflation is expected to be within the 2-3 per cent over the next two years.

The Reserve Bank of Australia governor Glenn Stevens said that there had been some improvement in the labour market.

Australia's trade deficit decreased to A$1.68 billion in June from A$2.04 billion in May. May's figure was revised down from a deficit of A$1.91 billion. Analysts had expected the trade deficit to decline to A$2.00 billion.

The Japanese yen traded lower against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports in Japan.

West Texas Intermediate oil fell for the sixth time in seven days amid forecasts that U.S. refineries reduced operating rates last week, allowing crude supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, to rebound from near six-year lows.

Refineries probably operated at 92.8 percent of capacity on Aug. 1, down 0.7 percentage point from the prior week, according to a Bloomberg survey before a government report tomorrow. The announcement last week that a Coffeyville, Kansas, refinery that gets oil from Cushing may be offline for most of August sent WTI to a four-month low. Brent slipped on reports that Kurdish fighters in Iraq retook border towns seized by Islamic militants.

"We're all anxious about tomorrow's data," said Bob Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities USA Inc. in New York. "WTI has been supported by the fall in Cushing supplies this year. Coffeyville being offline may change the whole formula and we may see a supply gain."

WTI for September delivery dropped 48 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $97.81 a barrel at 10:27 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $97.09 on Aug. 1, the lowest intraday level since Feb. 5. The volume of all futures traded was 28 percent below the 100-day average. Prices are down 0.6 percent this year.

Brent for September settlement slipped 72 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $104.69 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Volumes were 10 percent higher than the 100-day average. The European benchmark crude traded at a $6.88 premium to WTI, down from $7.12 yesterday.

Gold prices down by a stronger dollar after strong data on factory orders and business activity in the services sector.

In June, the U.S. industrial orders rose by 1.1% compared with May, according to the Ministry of Commerce.

Analysts had expected a growth rate of 0.6%. According to revised data, the volume of orders in May fell 0.6%, not 0.5%, as previously reported.

The volume of orders excluding transportation equipment also rose in June by 1.1%, after falling 0.2% the month before.

Orders for durable goods (over 3 years), which accounted for more than half of all orders of industrial enterprises, rose last month by 1.7% after falling 0.9% in May.

Orders for durable goods excluding aircraft and military equipment rebounded in June by 3.3%. Delivery of these goods, which are included in the calculation of GDP, decreased by 0.3%.

In July, the index of business activity in the U.S. service sector (ISM Non-Manufacturing) increased to 58.7 points - the highest level since December 2005, compared to 56 points in June, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).

Experts expected the figure to 56.6 points.

Exceeding the index level of 50 points indicates growth of business activity in the service sector, while the index value below 50 indicates its decline.

Sharp increase in business activity in the U.S. service in July in conjunction with climb acceleration in the manufacturing sector to its highest level in three years indicate a strengthening of the U.S. economy at the beginning of the third quarter of 2014.

Gold is under heavy selling pressure in recent weeks, as improvements in the U.S. economy generate speculation that the Fed will raise interest rates sooner than expected, which would reduce the demand for gold for use as a hedge against a flexible monetary policy.

The cost of the August gold futures on the COMEX today dropped to $ 1282.60 per ounce.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its interest rate decision today. The RBA kept its interest rate unchanged at 2.50%. This decision was expected by analysts. Australia's central bank released almost the same statement accompanying the RBA's decision as its statement in July.

The RBA governor Glenn Stevens said that the RBA will keep its interest rate unchanged in the face of forecasts of below trend economic growth.

Australia's central bank expects that inflation will be within the 2-3 per cent over the next two years.

The board of the RBA added that "monetary policy is appropriately configured to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation outcomes consistent with the target. On present indications, the most prudent course is likely to be a period of stability in interest rates."

The Institute for Supply Management released its services index today. The index increased to 58.7 in July, from 56.0 in June, exceeding expectations for a rise to 56.6. That was the highest level since January 2008.

A figure above 50 indicates expansion.

Eurostat released retail sales for the Eurozone today. Retail sales in the Eurozone climbed 0.4% in June, in line with expectations, after a 0.3% rise in May. May's figure was revised up from 0.0%.

On a yearly basis, retail sales in the Eurozone jumped 2.4% in June, beating expectations for a 1.2% gain, after a 0.6% increase in May. That was the fastest growth since March 2007.

May's figure was revised down from a 0.7% rise.

The annual increase was driven by a rise in sales of non-food products and sales of food, drinks and tobacco.

The highest growth was registered in Germany (+1.3%), Austria (+1.1%) and Poland (+1.0%). The largest decline was registered in Finland (-1.8%), Portugal (-1.4%), and Spain (-0.8%).

On a yearly basis, retail sales in Germany rose at fastest pace since February 2011.

USD/JPY 101.05, 101.15, 101.40, 101.60, 101.75, 101.80, 101.85, 102.00 (1.6bn), 102.50 (2.01bn), 102.75, 102.95, 103.00, 103.15, 103.50

EUR/USD 1.3340, 1.3350, 1.3450 (1.3bn), 1.3525, 1.3550

AUD/USD 0.9200, 0.9205, 0.9250, 0.9275, 0.9320, 0.9340, 0.9420

USD/CAD 1.0770, 1.0775, 1.0800, 1.0845, 1.0870, 1.0875

GBP/USD 1.6850

EUR/GBP 0.7905, 0.7930, 0.8000

U.S. stock-index futures declined as investors awaited a report on services activity and earnings releases from companies including Walt Disney Co.

Global markets:

Nikkei 15,320.31 -154.19 -1.00%

Hang Seng 24,648.26 +48.18 +0.20%

Shanghai Composite 2,219.95 -3.39 -0.15%

FTSE 6,697.14 +19.62 +0.29%

CAC 4,242.94 +25.72 +0.61%

DAX 9,202.26 +48.12 +0.53%

Crude oil $98.22 (-0.08%)

Gold $1292.30 (+0.08%)

(company / ticker / price / change, % / volume)

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3530, $1.3500-10, $1.3485, $1.3445-50

Bids $1.3400, $1.3360/50

GBP/USD

Offers $1.6700, $1.6926, $1.6900

Bids $1.6800, $1.6785/80, $1.6750, $1.6700-693

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9400, $0.9375/80, $0.9350

Bids $0.9300, $0.9250, $0.9200

EUR/JPY

Offers Y139.00, Y138.80, Y138.50, Y138.00

Bids Y137.20, Y137.05/00, Y136.80, Y136.50

USD/JPY

Offers Y104.00, Y103.50, Y103.15, Y102.80

Ордера на покупку Y102.30, Y102.25/20, Y102.00, Y101.80

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8100, stg0.8000, stg0.7985

Bids stg0.7920, stg0.7900

Economic calendar (GMT0):

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)

01:30 Australia Trade Balance June -2.04 -2.00 -1.68

01:45 China HSBC Services PMI July 53.1 50

04:30 Australia Announcement of the RBA decision on the discount rate 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%

04:30 Australia RBA Rate Statement

07:48 France Services PMI (Finally) July 48.2 50.4 50.4

07:53 Germany Services PMI (Finally) July 54.5 56.6 56.7

07:58 Eurozone Services PMI (Finally) July 52.8 54.4 54.2

08:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Services July 57.7 58.1 59.1

09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) June +0.3% Revised From 0.0% +0.4% +0.4%

09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) June +0.6% Revised From +0.7% +1.2% +2.4%

The U.S. dollar traded higher against the most major currencies ahead of the ISM service sector activity in the U.S. and factory orders in the U.S. The ISM non-manufacturing PMI is expected to rise to 56.6 in July from 56.0 in June.

Factory orders in the U.S. are expected to climb 0.6% in June, after a 0.5% fall in May.

The euro declined against the U.S. dollar after mixed economic data from the Eurozone. Retail sales in the Eurozone climbed 0.4% in June, in line with expectations, after a 0.3% rise in May. May's figure was revised up from 0.0%.

On a yearly basis, retail sales in the Eurozone jumped 2.4% in June, beating expectations for a 1.2% gain, after a 0.6% increase in May. May's figure was revised down from a 0.7% rise.

Eurozone's services purchasing managers' index rose to 54.2 in July from 52.8 in June, missing expectations for an increase to 54.4.

Germany's services purchasing managers' index increased to 56.7 in July from 54.5 in June, exceeding expectations for a rise to 56.6.

France's services purchasing managers' index climbed to 50.4 in July from 48.2 in June, in line with expectations.

The British pound increased against the U.S. dollar after the better-than-expected services purchasing managers' index in the UK, but later lost its gains. Services purchasing managers' index in the UK increased to 59.1 in July from 57.7 in June, beating expectations for a rise to 58.1.

EUR/USD: the currency pair declined to $1.3381

GBP/USD: the currency pair fell to $1.6855

USD/JPY: the currency pair increased to Y102.72

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

14:00 U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing July 56.0 56.6

14:00 U.S. Factory Orders June -0.5% +0.6%

22:45 New Zealand Unemployment Rate Quarter II 6.0% 5.8%

22:45 New Zealand Employment Change, q/q Quarter II +0.9% +0.7%

Stock indices traded higher due to the better-than-expected corporate earnings. Bayerische Motoren Werke AG shares rose 3.2% after reporting the better-than-expected second-quarter earnings. Credit Agricole SA shares jumped 5.1% after reporting the better-than-expected second-quarter earnings.

Retail sales in the Eurozone climbed 0.4% in June, in line with expectations, after a 0.3% rise in May. May's figure was revised up from 0.0%.

On a yearly basis, retail sales in the Eurozone jumped 2.4% in June, beating expectations for a 1.2% gain, after a 0.6% increase in May. May's figure was revised down from a 0.7% rise.

Eurozone's services purchasing managers' index rose to 54.2 in July from 52.8 in June, missing expectations for an increase to 54.4.

Germany's services purchasing managers' index increased to 56.7 in July from 54.5 in June, exceeding expectations for a rise to 56.6.

France's services purchasing managers' index climbed to 50.4 in July from 48.2 in June, in line with expectations.

Services purchasing managers' index in the UK increased to 59.1 in July from 57.7 in June, beating expectations for a rise to 58.1.

Deutsche Post AG shares climbed 2.5% after posting better-than-projected corporate earnings.

Current figures:

Name Price Change Change %

FTSE 100 6,706.62 +29.10 +0.44%

DAX 9,209.73 +55.59 +0.61%

CAC 40 4,248.92 +31.70 +0.75%

USD/JPY 101.05, 101.15, 101.40, 101.60, 101.75, 101.80, 101.85, 102.00 (1.6bn), 102.50 (2.01bn), 102.75, 102.95, 103.00, 103.15, 103.50

EUR/USD 1.3340, 1.3350, 1.3450 (1.3bn), 1.3525, 1.3550

AUD/USD 0.9200, 0.9205, 0.9250, 0.9275, 0.9320, 0.9340, 0.9420

USD/CAD 1.0770, 1.0775, 1.0800, 1.0845, 1.0870, 1.0875

GBP/USD 1.6850

EUR/GBP 0.7905, 0.7930, 0.8000

Most Asian stock indices closed lower due to weak China's services sector data. Chinese HSBC services purchasing managers' index dropped to 50.0 in July from 53.1 in June. That was the lowest figure since November 2005.

HTC Corp. shares fell 4.4% after company's July sales declined 33% from a year ago.

Isuzu Motors Ltd. climbed 3.2% after reporting better-than-expected first-quarter net income.

Indexes on the close:

Nikkei 225 15,320.31 -154.19 -1.00%

Hang Seng 24,648.26 +48.18 +0.20%

Shanghai Composite 2,219.95 -3.39 -0.15%

Economic calendar (GMT0):

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)

01:30 Australia Trade Balance June -2.04 -2.00 -1.68

01:45 China HSBC Services PMI July 53.1 50

04:30 Australia Announcement of the RBA decision on the discount rate 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%

04:30 Australia RBA Rate Statement

07:48 France Services PMI (Finally) July 48.2 50.4 50.4

07:53 Germany Services PMI (Finally) July 54.5 56.6 56.7

07:58 Eurozone Services PMI (Finally) July 52.8 54.4 54.2

08:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Services July 57.7 58.1 59.1

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies. Friday's release of U.S. labour market data still weighed on the U.S. currency. The U.S. economy added 209,000 jobs in July, missing expectations for a growth of 230,000 jobs. The unemployment rate in the U.S. increased to 6.2% in July from 6.1% in June.

The New Zealand dollar traded mixed against the U.S dollar in the absence of any major economic reports in New Zealand.

The Australian dollar traded higher against the U.S. dollar after the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision. The RBA kept its interest rate unchanged at 2.50%. This decision was expected by analysts.

The RBA said its accommodative monetary policy should provide support to demand and help growth to strengthen over time. Australia's central bank added that inflation is expected to be within the 2-3 per cent over the next two years.

The Reserve Bank of Australia governor Glenn Stevens said that there had been some improvement in the labour market.

Australia's trade deficit decreased to A$1.68 billion in June from A$2.04 billion in May. May's figure was revised down from a deficit of A$1.91 billion. Analysts had expected the trade deficit to decline to A$2.00 billion.

The Japanese yen traded higher against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports in Japan.

EUR/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

GBP/USD: the currency pair increased to $1.6870

USD/JPY: the currency pair declined to Y102.47

AUD/USD: the currency pair was up to $0.9339

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) June 0.0% +0.4%

09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) June +0.7% +1.2%

14:00 U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing July 56.0 56.6

14:00 U.S. Factory Orders June -0.5% +0.6%

22:45 New Zealand Unemployment Rate Quarter II 6.0% 5.8%

22:45 New Zealand Employment Change, q/q Quarter II +0.9% +0.7%

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3552 (2737)

$1.3501 (3167)

$1.3466 (2310)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.3421

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3382 (2948)

$1.3344 (2601)

$1.3298 (2791)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date August, 8 is 33895 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3600 (4120);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date August, 8 is 33277 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (5893);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.98 versus 0.99 from the previous trading day according to data from August, 4

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.7100 (2740)

$1.7000 (1222)

$1.6901 (1022)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.6866

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.6799 (3808)

$1.6700 (1068)

$1.6600 (431)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date August, 8 is 19847 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7100 (2740);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date August, 8 is 26345 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6800 (3808);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.33 versus 1.36 from the previous trading day according to data from August, 4

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.