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05.07.2011
18:57
Economist Chris Rupkey at BTM-UFJ says Jun payrolls could be +150k - reason is wet weather and Japan supply disruptions might have depressed May jobs.
18:57
Dow -38.94 at 12543.83, Nasdaq +0.42 at 2816.45, S&P -4.98 at 1334.69

In the wake of Portugal's downgrade by Moody's, the dollar has extended its advance so that it is now up 0.6% against a basket of major foreign currencies. That makes for a fresh session high.
The Dow recently set a new session low, but neither the Nasdaq nor the S&P 500 confirmed the move. In fact, the Nasdaq only came in contact with the flat line, but found support there.

18:33
Standard & Poor's doesn't expect a double dip in developed markets. "We believe emerging markets will continue to be a major driver of global growth."
18:09
Moody's downgraded Portugal's long-term government bond ratings to Ba2 from Baa1 and assigned a negative outlook.
17:12
American focus:

The dollar advanced versus most of its major counterparts on speculation China’s efforts to tame inflation will cool growth and damp demand for riskier assets.
The euro dropped for the first time in seven days versus the greenback after Moody’s Investors Service said banks rolling over Greek bonds into new securities may incur impairment charges.
“We had this insipient risk recovery last week, and it has all of a sudden stalled,” said Richard Franulovich, a senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in New York. “Moody’s has been in the news saying that the recent rollover plan constitutes a credit event. We thought Greece was taken off the table last week, and it’s still there, so that’s taken the steam out of the euro.”
The Swiss franc, a traditional haven from economic turmoil, rallied against all of its major counterparts.
China is likely to raise rates to combat consumer-price increases that may have reached 6.2 percent in June, said the Economic Information Daily, citing market estimates. That followed comments by the People’s Bank of China yesterday that the country still faces “large” inflationary pressure.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.3 percent after rallying 5.6 percent last week. Yields on Treasury 10-year notes dropped five basis points to 3.13 percent today.
The Australian dollar weakened against the greenback after the South Pacific nation’s central bank left borrowing costs unchanged. The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate target at 4.75 percent for a seventh straight meeting as signs of slower growth from Europe to China dimmed prospects for an acceleration in hiring at home.

16:50
Positive tone of commodities and risk keeps oil prices underpinned

August crude gains now approaching $2 at $96.88, the contract holding just shy of the session high at $96.99.

16:00
WTO: China raw material export restrictions violate trade rules
14:47
CIBC on US factory orders

CIBC says +0.8% May factory orders on top of a healthy ISM report shows mfg remains in expansion. They note April orders were revised to -0.9% from -1.2%.

14:34
Techs on gold:

Currently gold prices hold at $1511.50/oz with trading range is limited by $1493.40 - $1511.91. For any kind of upward momentum the gold will need to vault last week's highs near $1513.71 and then the 55-day MA ($1518 on Tuesday). Edel Tully from UBS says "rather than rallying now, gold is likely to stay rangebound either side of $1500."

14:00
US: May factory new orders +0.8%
13:50
EUR/GBP weakens

EUR/GBP weakens again after it failed to back above stg0.9000. Cross currently holds around stg0.8980, above session lows on stg0.8974. The support remains at stg0.8975/70 with a break under opens the way to stg0.8935/30.

13:39
Option expires for NY 14:00 GMT cut

EUR/USD $1.4200, $1.4300, $1.4355, $1.4500, $1.4665
USD/JPY Y79.75, Y80.75, Y80.80, Y81.00, Y81.60, Y82.00
USD/CHF chf0.8350, chf0,8410, chf0.8600
GBP/USD $1.6000
AUD/USD $1.0500, $1.0565, $1.0600
EUR/JPY Y116.45

13:12
Before the bell: Calm start for Wall Street

US stocks were poised to open little changed Tuesday.
Standard & Poor's warned Monday that a plan for European banks to roll over some of Greece's debts into longer-term bonds would still be considered a default.

Economy: Factory orders are due from the Commerce Department after the start of trading. Orders are forecast to have risen 1% in May, after falling 1.2% April.
Companies: Shares of China's top search engine Baidu (BIDU) rose 1%, after it reportedly signed a deal with Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500) to provide English-language search results in China.
Baidu's main rival, Google (GOOG, Fortune 500), has failed to gain traction in the Chinese market.
World markets: European stocks were mixed in morning trading. Britain's FTSE 100 added 0.1% and the DAX in Germany rose 0.2%, while France's CAC 40 slipped 0.3%.

13:00
EUR/USD continues to hold within the $1.4454-$1.4500 range with bids on $1.4450 (stops below extending to $1.4440).
12:47
GBP/USD probes $1.6100

GBP/USD challenging support at $1.6100. Offers at session highs on $1.6130, with stronger offers behind at $1.6145/50 ahead of $1.6195/00. Bids at $1.6070/60. Cable trades around $1.6101.

12:19
USD/JPY weakens

USD/JPY weakens, currently holding around Y81.07. rate earlier was between the narrow range, limited by Y80.09-19. Bids at Y80.80/75 and Y80.65/60, a break here and stops sub Y80.50. On the topside stops through Y81.20/40, offers at Y81.55/60. The pair trades Y81.10.

12:01
EU session review: Pound rises after UK PMI data

Data released:
07:45     Italy     PMI services (June)    47.4    49.4    50.1
07:50     France     PMI services (June)    56.1    56.7    62.5
07:55     Germany     PMI services (June) seasonally adjusted    56.7    58.3    56.1
08:00     EU(17)     PMI services (June)    53.7    54.2    56.0
08:30     UK     CIPS services index (June)    53.9    53.5    53.8
09:00     EU(17)     Retail sales (May) adjusted    -1.1%    -1.0%    0.9%
09:00     EU(17)     Retail sales (May) adjusted Y/Y     -1.9%    -0.6%    1.1%

The pound strengthened against the euro and the dollar after a report showed a measure of U.K. service PMI exceeded economists’ forecasts in June
A gauge of U.K. services growth based on a survey of companies rose to 53.9 from 53.8 in May. The median forecast was for a decline to 53.5.
“The focus from the market right now is very much on the growth numbers, and positive data outcomes will tend to be supportive of sterling,” said Chris Scicluna at Daiwa Capital Markets Europe.
The pound has slumped this year as Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron’s austerity measures to shrink the budget deficit crimp growth and inflation squeezes incomes at the fastest pace since the 1970s. Efforts to eliminate the bulk of the fiscal shortfall by 2015 involve the deepest spending cuts since World War II and more than 300,000 state-employee job losses.
The Bank of England will keep its main rate unchanged at 0.5% on July 7. Investors are betting the central bank won’t raise borrowing costs until after next May.

EUR/USD weakens after some consolidation within the $1.4460/90 range.

GBP/USD rose from session lows around $1.5990 to $1.6030 before retreated.

USD/JPY rose to Y81.20. Later rate retreated to Y81.05.

US data starts at 1400GMT, US factory orders are expected to increase 1.0% in May on the already reported 1.9% increase in durable goods orders.

11:54
INDUSTRY NEWS: Deutsche Brse AG today announced that it has acquired a minority stake in London-based Digital Vega, which provides electronic FX technology solutions.
11:39
Goldman on US economy

Goldman believe there are facts to support US economy in H2, including the following: commodity prices have eased; financial conditions are easier; vehicle production has rebounded; and labor market stabilized.


11:20
AUD/USD back to $1.0700

AUD/USD back up around $1.0700 amid reports of some GBP/AUD sales from model accounts. Currently rate holds around $1.0697 after post RBA low of $1.0665 earlier.

11:03
GBP/USD retreats

GBP/USD rose strongly after the release of June UK PMI. Rate printed session high on $1.6128 and currently holds around the figure. Offers at $1.6140/45. Support sitting at $1.6005/00 with retail bids behind at $1.5985/70.

10:48
EUR/GBP tries to recover from session lows around stg0.8980. Cross earlier fell from session highs on stg0.9050 after the release of UK PMI data. Initial support remains at stg0.8980/75.
10:46
EU stocks:

European stocks advanced, as the Stoxx Europe 600 Index rallied for a seventh day. Asian shares fell and U.S. index futures were little changed. Celesio AG (CLS1), Europe’s biggest drug wholesaler, surged 5 percent after analysts raised their recommendation on the stock. CSM NV slumped more than 9 percent, its largest drop in 2 1/2 years, after saying first-half earnings will decline because of higher raw-material costs.

10:15
EU focus: Dollar gains

The U.S. dollar recovered on short covering on Tuesday while Asian stocks retreated from a one-month high.
The euro weakened, though it still held within striking distance of a one-month high against the U.S. dollar before a much expected interest rate increase on Thursday.

The Australian dollar languished near the day's lows after the central bank held interest rates at 4.75%, as widely expected. RBA also said the economy was unlikely to grow as strongly in 2011 as it first thought.
The RBA's dovish comments led to a short squeeze in the U.S. dollar.
The RBA's accompanying statement bolstered expectations for a moderate slowdown in Asia.
"It's a classic short squeeze in the dollar, but I don't think the recent 'risk-on' trend has changed because of this sharp move," said Tsutomu Soma, a senior manager at Okasan Securities. "Both the Aussie and euro were overbought, so many players simply wanted to lock in profits made on those rallies," Soma said.

09:58
EUR/USD holds stable

EUR/USD holds stable around $1.4480 with trading range is limited by $1.4460-99. Stops below $1.4450, extending through $1.4415 ahead of $1.4380/75. Resistance at $1.4485/90 with a break here to open $1.4525/30.

09:44
USD/JPY holds higher

USD/JPY holds higher - above Y81.00. The rate earlier broke through the overnight high (Y81.12) to print high around Y81.18. Support at Y80.80/75 and Y80.65/60. Resistance at Y81.20/30 and Y81.55/60. The rate currently trades Y81.12.

09:29
FTSE 6,025 +0.12%, CAC 3,992 -0.28%, DAX 7,460 +0.23%
09:16
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.4200, $1.4300, $1.4355, $1.4500, $1.4665
USD/JPY Y79.75, Y80.75, Y80.80, Y81.00, Y81.60, Y82.00
USD/CHF chf0.8350, chf0,8410, chf0.8600
GBP/USD $1.6000
AUD/USD $1.0500, $1.0565, $1.0600 
EUR/JPY Y116.45

09:02
EMU DATA: Retail sales in the Eurozone fell 1.1% on the month in May
08:29
UK DATA: UK Services PMI 53.9 in June
08:16
Asia Pacific stocks close:

Nikkei  9,972  +0.07%  

Hang Seng  22,745  -0.11%   
S&P/ASX   4,598  -0.27%  
Shanghai Composite  2,816  +0.13% 

08:06
Asian session: The dollar strengthened

Data:01:30 Australia Trade Balance (May) 2333M
01:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (May) 1.1% 
04:30 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jul 5) 4.75%

  
The dollar strengthened as Asian stocks snapped a five-day advance and metals retreated amid concern China will step up efforts to cool inflation. Wheat and rice led a rally in grains, while Australia’s currency sank.
The Aussie fell 0.6 percent after the central bank left interest rates unchanged. RBA said growth this year is “unlikely to be as strong as earlier forecast.”
U.S. factory orders likely increased 1 percent in May following a 1.2 percent decline the previous month, according to the median estimate of economists before the report today. 

EUR/USD: the pair decreased below  $1.4500.
GBP/USD: the pair decreased in $1.6000  area.
USD/JPY: the pair grown in Y81.10  area.

European data then rounds off at 0900GMT with EMU retail trade data for May. 
The UK data focus for the week remains on the PMI surveys. Friday's manufacturing PMI release showed what had been the one bright spot in the UK economic outlook coming rapidly off the boil, while the construction sector PMI on Monday came in above consensus but failed toimpress the markets amid some hopes for a higher number cisrulating in the morning. Services PMI is out at 0828GMT on Tuesday, completing the set for June and is expected to show a slight decline to 53.5 from 53.8 
last month.

US data starts at 1400GMT, US factory orders are expected to increase 1.0% in May on the already reported 1.9% increase in durable goods orders. 

07:58
EMU Purchasing Manager Index Services (Jun) 53.7
07:56
Germany Purchasing Manager Index Services (Jun) 56.7
07:54
Forex: Monday's review

The euro weakened versus the yen after Standard & Poor’s said a debt-rollover plan for Greece may prompt a “selective default” rating for the country.
The euro earlier advanced on speculation the European Central Bank will increase interest rates this week. The ECB on July 7 will increase its benchmark rate to 1.5% from 1.25%, according to economists.
The Swiss franc declined after data showed retail sales fell 4.1% in May from a year earlier. The Swiss currency has advanced 9.3% versus the dollar this year as investors sought a haven amid the euro-area debt crisis.

EUR/USD: the pair   shown low in  $1.4490 area. Later the rate receded and finished session in $1.4540 area.
GBP/USD: the pair holds $1.6050-$ 1.6140.
USD/JPY: the pair holds Y80.50-Y80.90.

This morning sees the release of the final services PMIs from the main European states all expected to confirm the preliminary releases, with France at 0648GMT (56.7), Germany at 0653GMT (58.3) and the EMU data at 0658GMT (54.2). 
European data then rounds off at 0900GMT with EMU retail trade data for May. 
The UK data focus for the week remains on the PMI surveys. Friday's manufacturing PMI release showed what had been the one bright spot in the UK economic outlook coming rapidly off the boil, while the construction sector PMI on Monday came in above consensus but failed toimpress the markets amid some hopes for a higher number cisrulating in the morning. Services PMI is out at 0828GMT on Tuesday, completing the set for June and is expected to show a slight decline to 53.5 from 53.8 
last month.

US data starts at 1400GMT, US factory orders are expected to increase 1.0% in May on the already reported 1.9% increase in durable goods orders. 

07:13
Stocks: Monday's review

Japanese stocks advanced to a two- month high after an unexpected gain in U.S. manufacturing boosted the earnings outlook for exporters and amid growing optimism Europe will agree to a further rescue plan for Greece.
Toyota Motor Corp. (7203), the world’s biggest carmaker by market value, advanced 1.5 percent. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. (8306) Japan’s largest bank by market capitalization, gained 2.8 percent. Mitsui Fudosan Co., the country’s No. 2 developer by market value, jumped 4.2 percent after Deutsche Bank AG said demand for high grade office space is increasing following the country’s record earthquake in March. Mitsubishi Estate Co., Japan’s No. 1 developer by market value, advanced 2.6 percent to 1,447 yen. Smaller rival Sumitomo Realty & Development Co. climbed 3.1 percent to 1,873 yen.
Japanese stocks rose today after a report on July 1 showed U.S. manufacturing expanded for the first time in four months, a sign that global industry is recovering from supply chain disruptions stemming from Japan’s earthquake. The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index rose to 55.3 last month from 53.5 in May. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast the index would drop to 52. Figures greater than 50 signal an expansion.
European stocks climbed for a sixth day, extending the biggest weekly advance for the Stoxx Europe 600 Index in a year, as finance ministers approved an aid payment to Greece.
London Stock Exchange Group Plc (LSE) gained 1.8 percent on a report the bourse is open to considering a merger with Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. RWE AG (RWE) rose 1.2 percent after the German utility was said to be considering a sale of its Npower unit. Banks limited gains as Standard & Poor’s said plans for lenders to roll over Greek debt may lead to a “selective default.”
Strategists at Nomura and Deutsche Bank AG turned bullish on European stocks, saying it’s time to buy the region’s shares as risks to global economic growth wane.
LSE climbed 1.8 percent to 1,052 pence after the Financial Times said the U.K. bourse is open to considering a merger with Nasdaq OMX. Bob Greifeld, chief executive officer of the New York-based company, is considering an approach for LSE, though advisers are not yet formally involved, the newspaper said, citing people familiar with the matter.
RWE rose 1.2 percent to 39.29 euros after a person familiar with the matter said the utility is working with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. as it considers a sale of its Npower unit in the U.K.
Societe Generale (GLE) SA led banks lower as a gauge of lenders declined for the first time in five days. Societe Generale lost 1.5 percent to 41.80 euros, Italy’s UniCredit SpA (UCG) slipped 0.9 percent to 1.52 euros and Spain’s Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) retreated 0.9 percent to 8.26 euros.

07:10
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3: Y81.80 (May 31 high) 

Resistance 2: Y81.30 (Jun 28 high) 
Resistance 1: Y81.10 (session high, Jul 1 high) 
Current price: Y81.08
Support 1:Y80.80 (support line from Jun 30)  
Support 2:Y80.25 (Jun 30 low)  
Support 3:Y80.00 (Jun 17-22 low)  

Comments: the pair grown. The immediate resistance - Y81.10. Above growth is possible to Y81.30. The immediate support - Y80.80. Below losses are possible to Y80.25. 

06:20
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.8610 (50.0 % FIBO CHF0,8950-Chf0,8275)

Resistance 2: Chf0.8550 (Jun 15-16 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.8520 (Jul 1 high)
Current price: Chf0.8489
Support 1: Chf0.8460 (Jul 4 low)
Support 2: Chf0.8400 (Jul 1 low)
Support 3: Chf0.8370 (Jun 29 high)
Comments: the pair holds in former frameworks. The immediate support - Chf0.8460. Below loss may extend to Chf0.8400. The immediate resistance Chf0.8520.  Above is located Chf0.8550. 

06:15
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6260 (Jun 22 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.6140 (Jul 4 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6100 (session  high)
The current price: $1.6018
Support 1 : $1.6015 (session  low)
Support 2 : $1.5970 (Jun 29 low)
Support 3 : $1.5910 (Jun 27-28 low)
Comments: the pair decreased. The immediate support $1.6015. Below decrease is  possible to $1.5970. The immediate  resistance - $1.6100. Above growth is possible to $1.6140.  

06:11
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.4650 (Jun 9 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.4580 (Jul 4 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.4555 (session high)
Current price: $1.4469
Support 1 : $1.4430 (area of Jun 30 and Jul 1 low)
Support 2 : $1.4370 (МА (200) for Н1)
Support 3 : $1.4330 (Jun 29 low)

Comments: the pair decreased. The immediate support $1,4430. Below losses are possible to $1.4370. The immediate resistance $1.4555. Above growth is possble to $1,4580. 

05:34
Schedule for today, Tuesday, Jul 05'2011:

03:30 Australia RBA meeting announcement 4.75% 4.75%

07:55 Germany PMI services (June) seasonally adjusted 58.3 56.1
08:00 EU(17) PMI services (June) 54.2 56.0
08:30 UK CIPS services index (June) 53.5 53.8
09:00 EU(17) Retail sales (May) adjusted -1.0% 0.9%
09:00 EU(17) Retail sales (May) adjusted Y/Y -0.6% 1.1%
14:00 USA Factory orders (May) 1.0% -1.2%

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