Forex news and forecasts from 05-04-2021

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05.04.2021
23:30
Japan: Labor Cash Earnings, YoY, February -0.2%
23:30
Japan: Household spending Y/Y, February -6.6% (forecast -5.3%)
19:50
Schedule for tomorrow, Tuesday, April 6, 2021
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
01:30 (GMT) Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) March 7.2%  
01:45 (GMT) China Markit/Caixin Services PMI March 51.5  
04:30 (GMT) Australia Announcement of the RBA decision on the discount rate 0.1%  
08:30 (GMT) Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence April 5.0  
09:00 (GMT) Eurozone Unemployment Rate February 8.1%  
14:00 (GMT) U.S. JOLTs Job Openings February 6.917  
22:00 (GMT) New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence Quarter I -6%  
22:30 (GMT) Australia AiG Performance of Construction Index March 57.4  
18:59
DJIA +1.11% 33,519.82 +366.61 Nasdaq +1.70% 13,709.27 +229.17 S&P +1.40% 4,076.18 +56.31
14:00
U.S.: Factory Orders , February -0.8% (forecast -0.5%)
14:00
U.S.: ISM Non-Manufacturing, March 63.7 (forecast 58.5)
13:45
U.S.: Services PMI, March 60.4 (forecast 60)
13:32
U.S. Stocks open: Dow +0.83%, Nasdaq +0.79%, S&P +0.75%
13:14
Before the bell: S&P futures +0.69%, NASDAQ futures +0.81%

Before the bell: S&P futures +0.69%, NASDAQ futures +0.81%

U.S. stock-index futures rose on Monday, as investors reacted positively to a much-stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report for March.


Global Stocks:

Index/commodity

Last

Today's Change, points

Today's Change, %

Nikkei

30,089.25

+235.25

+0.79%

Hang Seng

-

-

-

Shanghai

-

-

-

S&P/ASX

-

-

-

FTSE

-

-

-

CAC

-

-

-

DAX

-

-

-

Crude oil

$60.52


-1.51%

Gold

$1,724.70


-0.21%

12:51
Wall Street. Stocks before the bell

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)


3M Co

MMM

193.65

0.95(0.49%)

937

ALCOA INC.

AA

32.57

0.34(1.05%)

21134

ALTRIA GROUP INC.

MO

51.2

0.20(0.39%)

18317

Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ

AMZN

3,178.00

17.00(0.54%)

29501

American Express Co

AXP

146.47

1.90(1.31%)

2070

AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP

AIG

46.9

0.52(1.12%)

6371

Apple Inc.

AAPL

123.88

0.88(0.72%)

816158

AT&T Inc

T

30.64

0.17(0.56%)

165243

Boeing Co

BA

255.81

2.85(1.13%)

108281

Caterpillar Inc

CAT

234.54

1.80(0.77%)

12276

Chevron Corp

CVX

105.79

0.04(0.04%)

13960

Cisco Systems Inc

CSCO

51.73

0.12(0.23%)

53340

Citigroup Inc., NYSE

C

74.16

1.02(1.39%)

78300

Deere & Company, NYSE

DE

375

2.88(0.77%)

1574

E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Co

DD

78.45

0.32(0.41%)

1355

Exxon Mobil Corp

XOM

57.43

0.04(0.07%)

78351

Facebook, Inc.

FB

300.2

1.54(0.52%)

167023

FedEx Corporation, NYSE

FDX

285

1.46(0.51%)

5602

Ford Motor Co.

F

12.37

0.20(1.64%)

755581

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE

FCX

34.7

0.94(2.78%)

136612

General Electric Co

GE

13.48

0.20(1.51%)

527727

General Motors Company, NYSE

GM

58.8

1.00(1.73%)

131478

Goldman Sachs

GS

332

4.36(1.33%)

10482

Google Inc.

GOOG

2,154.67

16.92(0.79%)

7479

Hewlett-Packard Co.

HPQ

32.13

0.08(0.25%)

13925

Home Depot Inc

HD

309.35

1.60(0.52%)

5790

HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC.

HON

217.5

0.70(0.32%)

3428

Intel Corp

INTC

64.86

0.31(0.48%)

99572

International Business Machines Co...

IBM

133.69

0.46(0.35%)

11005

International Paper Company

IP

54.5

0.21(0.39%)

224

Johnson & Johnson

JNJ

163.31

0.48(0.29%)

6615

JPMorgan Chase and Co

JPM

155

2.19(1.43%)

39586

McDonald's Corp

MCD

226

0.79(0.35%)

2833

Merck & Co Inc

MRK

77.52

0.43(0.56%)

10483

Microsoft Corp

MSFT

242.71

0.36(0.15%)

247180

Nike

NKE

133.6

1.07(0.81%)

13485

Pfizer Inc

PFE

36.43

0.13(0.36%)

48158

Procter & Gamble Co

PG

134.49

0.21(0.16%)

4090

Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ

SBUX

109.59

0.21(0.19%)

10446

Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ

TSLA

709.98

48.23(7.29%)

1483288

The Coca-Cola Co

KO

52.34

-0.17(-0.32%)

36880

Travelers Companies Inc

TRV

152

1.38(0.92%)

610

Twitter, Inc., NYSE

TWTR

64.36

0.53(0.83%)

32373

UnitedHealth Group Inc

UNH

369.59

2.52(0.69%)

546

Verizon Communications Inc

VZ

58.57

0.27(0.46%)

36457

Visa

V

218.26

1.40(0.65%)

9817

Wal-Mart Stores Inc

WMT

136.15

0.53(0.39%)

12308

Walt Disney Co

DIS

191.19

2.22(1.17%)

35974

Yandex N.V., NASDAQ

YNDX

64.5

-0.47(-0.72%)

2983

12:48
Initiations before the market open

Ford Motor (F) initiated with Overweight at Wells Fargo; target $15

General Motors (GM) initiated with Overweight at Wells Fargo; target $67

12:47
Resumptions before the market open

Microsoft (MSFT) resumed with Outperform at Credit Suisse; target $265

12:46
Upgrades before the market open

Tesla (TSLA) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Wedbush and added to Best Ideas List; target raised to $1000

08:57
GBP/USD is in a consolidation phase - UOB

Analysts at UOB suggest that GBP/USD is in a consolidation phase and is expected to trade between 1.3700 and 1.3900 in the next 1-3 weeks.

24-hour view:  "GBP rose to 1.3853 last Friday before easing off. The underlying tone still appears to be firm and there is scope for GBP to test 1.3860 first before a more sustained pullback can be expected. The next resistance at 1.3900 is not expected to come into the picture. On the downside, support is at 1.3795 followed by 1.3770."

Next 1-3 weeks: "GBP traded sideways for the past several days and momentum indicators are mostly neutral. The movement is viewed as part of an ongoing consolidation phase. From here, GBP is expected to trade sideways between 1.3700 and 1.3900."

08:38
BoJ begins experimenting on Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC)

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) released a short statement about the commencement of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) experiments, in which it said that Phase 1 of its experiments on digital currency issuance is starting today. 

"In PoC Phase 1, the Bank plans to develop a test environment for the CBDC system and conduct experiments on the basic functions that are core to CBDC as a payment instrument such as issuance, distribution, and redemption," the BoJ said. "This phase will be carried out through March 2022, for a duration of one year."

08:22
EUR/USD: Odds for EUR to move below 1.1700 have diminished - UOB

Analysts at UOB suggest that last week's rebound in EUR amid oversold conditions has diminished the odds for currency to move below 1.1700. 

24-hour view: “EUR traded in a quiet manner last Friday and with most momentum indicators at neutral level, further sideway trading would not be surprising. Expected range for today; 1.1745/1.1785."

Next 1-3 weeks: “EUR tested but failed to break the major support at 1.1700 last Wednesday (31 Mar) as it rebounded from 1.1702. The rebound amid oversold conditions has diminished the odds for EUR to move below 1.1700. However, only a move above 1.1825 (‘strong resistance’ level) would indicate that 1.1702 is the extent of the current weak phase in EUR. Until then, there is still chance, albeit a slim one, for a retest of 1.1700."

08:00
France revises 2021 deficit, debt forecasts as the country enters its third national coronavirus lockdown - Reuters

  • France’s 2021 growth forecast revised from 6% to 5%, taking into account the effect of new restrictions
  • 2021 public deficit is expected to reach 9% of GDP, up from previous forecast of 8.5%
  • 2021 public debt is set to reach 118% of GDP, up from previous forecast of 115%

07:46
Gold sees no big catalyst to the upside - TDS

FXStreet reports that TD Securities head of global strategy Bart Melek said in an interview with Kitco News that gold’s recovery appears to have no big catalysts while the U.S. dollar continues to rule the roost.

"We were below $1,680, now we are in recovery mode - above $1,728. I don't see a big catalyst to the upside at this stage. For the time being, we are range-bound."

"Right now, the US dollar is the only game in town because the US economy is the only game in town. Europe is locking up while the US could be fully vaccinated by May. This is why the US markets will do pretty well. Plus, we are getting a significant commitment to spend more on infrastructure. Earnings and everything else will be good.”


07:25
Dollar keeps Citigroup, Morgan Stanley wary of emerging markets

Bloomberg reports that emerging-market investors reeling from last month’s losses head into the first full week of April bracing for more pain driven by higher U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar.

Flows to equity funds fell to less than a third of the levels seen in February and bond funds ended the first quarter with more outflows, according to data compiled by EPFR Global.

Morgan Stanley is staying bearish on emerging-market currencies, saying the slow pace of vaccine rollouts in many developing economies is threatening to ensure growth in developing economies will lag behind the U.S. Meantime, Citigroup Inc. expects higher U.S. yields and a resilient dollar to put further pressure on the asset class in the coming months.

“This quarter can be big for the dollar and not necessarily amazing for emerging markets,” said Luis Costa, Citigroup’s London-based head of CEEMEA strategy. “We don’t believe the U.S. curve is pretty much done adjusting. Between now and June/July, we could see a further leg higher here in yields.”

07:00
Asian session review: the US dollar consolidated against major currencies

During today's Asian trading, the US dollar was trading steady as investors soaked up strong US employment report last week and awaited US services sector data that would confirm a solid economic rebound after the coronavirus shock.

In January-March, the dollar posted its best quarter against major currencies in nearly three years, thanks to an improving U.S. economy and higher treasury bond yields.

The U.S. currency is likely to build on these gains, analysts said, as investors look for ways to bet on the global economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

The U.S. economy created more jobs than expected in March, according to data on Friday. However, there was little reaction from the foreign exchange market, as most of the major stock and bond markets were closed for the Easter holiday.

Overall, the dollar's outlook remains stable as the main economic momentum points to a stronger recovery. The Institute for Supply Management's report, due later on Monday, is expected to show that U.S. non-manufacturing activity grew at a faster pace in March.

06:40
USD: Further strong job gains in the months ahead - CIBC

CIBC Research discusses its reaction to the US jobs report.

"The second wave of the economic recovery accelerated in March, with non-farm payrolls rising by 916K. That was well above the consensus forecast for a 660K gain. Looking forward, we would expect to see further strong job gains in the months ahead, particularly as people start to feel more confident spending their stimulus dollars on services such as travel and restaurants. However, that is of course dependent on vaccinations continuing at speed and those vaccinations being able to prevent serious illness from new variants," CIBC adds.

06:22
Biden will push through infrastructure plan if no Republican support - energy secretary

Reuters reports that Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said that U.S. President Joe Biden would be willing to push through his $2 trillion infrastructure plan without the support of Republican lawmakers if he cannot reach a bipartisan deal.

Granholm said Biden would prefer that his plan have Republican backing but, if that does not work, he would likely support using a procedural strategy called reconciliation to allow Democrats to pass it in the Senate.

Most Americans currently support the Democratic president’s plan, said Granholm, one of several senior Biden administration officials who promoted the proposal on television news shows on Sunday.

Since taking office in January, the Democratic president has repeatedly said he wants to work with Republicans.

But the infrastructure plan - his second major legislative initiative - so far looks unlikely to draw more bipartisan support than his first, a $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package that passed with only Democratic support last month, using reconciliation.

Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell said last week that Biden’s infrastructure plan was “bold and audacious” but would raise taxes and increase debt. He vowed to fight it “every step of the way.”

05:59
Japan services activity shrinked less than expected

RTTNews reports that final data from IHS Markit showed that Japan's services activity contracted at a slower than initially estimated pace in March.

Japan Services PMI rose to 48.3 in March from 46.3 in February. This was well above the flash score of 46.5 but below the neutral 50.0 mark, suggesting contraction in the sector. The latest reading was the highest since January 2020.

New business inflows fell at a softer pace in the latest survey period. In anticipation of improving orders as the pandemic recedes, Japanese service providers increased employment levels for the second successive month.

Business optimism for activity in the next 12 months strengthened to the highest level since May 2013 in March.

05:24
Options levels on monday, April 5, 2021 EURUSD GBPUSD

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1859 (848)

$1.1822 (415)

$1.1797 (286)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1759

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1727 (4907)

$1.1691 (2575)

$1.1646 (3723)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date April, 9 is 70568 contracts (according to data from April, 2) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1750 (4907);


GBP/USD

$1.3961 (512)

$1.3920 (927)

$1.3887 (130)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3827

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3765 (459)

$1.3731 (1308)

$1.3690 (1114)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date April, 9 is 9810 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4100 (1178);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date April, 9 is 15164 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3750 (1308);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.55 versus 1.65 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 2

 

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

01:04
Australia: MI Inflation Gauge, m/m, March 0.4%
00:30
Schedule for today, Monday, April 5, 2021
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
01:00 (GMT) Australia MI Inflation Gauge, m/m March 0.1%  
13:45 (GMT) U.S. Services PMI March 59.8 60
14:00 (GMT) U.S. Factory Orders February 2.6% -0.5%
14:00 (GMT) U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing March 55.3 57.4
23:30 (GMT) Japan Labor Cash Earnings, YoY February -0.8%  
23:30 (GMT) Japan Household spending Y/Y February -6.1%  
00:15
Currencies. Daily history for Friday, April 2, 2021
Pare Closed Change, %
AUDUSD 0.75975 -0.21
EURJPY 130.014 -0.15
EURUSD 1.17591 -0.13
GBPJPY 152.94 0.01
GBPUSD 1.3827 -0.01
NZDUSD 0.70146 0.02
USDCAD 1.25689 0.22
USDCHF 0.94232 0.11
USDJPY 110.567 -0

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