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FED: Mar 15 FOMC minutes (2)

Recall that staff forecasts were rev down for growth, up for inflation. Members said the econ recovery was on firmer footing, broadly as expected, gaining traction; labor mkt improving gradually; credit conds remained uneven. They expected energy, commods to boost infl but said this should be transitory (also lowers growth). Overall risks seen as 'roughly balanced.' Members said will watch infl expectations (currently stable in a slack environment) for hints the
public expects excessive price moves. MENA, Japan, etc increase uncertainty.

FED: Mar 15 FOMC minutes

Do little to illuminate QE or rate policy as debate is framed in very mild terms with outliers on both sides. "To mitigate (infl) risks... agreed that FOMC would continue its planning for the eventual exit from the current, exceptionally accommodative stance of monetary policy. In light of uncertainty about the economic outlook, it was seen as prudent to consider possible exit strategies for a range of potential economic outcomes. A few participants indicated that economic conditions might warrant a move toward less-accommodative monetary policy this year; a few others noted that exceptional policy accommodation could be appropriate beyond 2011." Also, "A few members noted that evidence of a stronger recovery, or of higher inflation or rising infl expectations, could make it appropriate to reduce the pace or overall size of the purchase program. Several others indicated that they did not anticipate making adjustments to the program before its intended completion."

Dow +33.04 at 12433.07, Nasdaq +15.04 at 2804.23, S&P +4.35 at 1337.22

Stocks recently stretched to session highs, but overall gains remain rather modest.
Retailers are having an impressive session, however. As such, the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 52.19, +1.31) is up about 2.5%. Among individual retailers, TJX Co (TJX 50.99, +1.39) is up almost 3% following the firm's decision to raise its dividend by almost 30% to $0.19 per share.

FED, Kocherlakota: FED commited to keep inflation under control
FED, Kocherlakota: FED commited to keep inflation under control
American focus:

Sterling was the biggest winner versus the dollar among the most-traded currencies as the U.K.’s service industries accelerated at the fastest pace in more than a year last month.
Markit Economics Ltd. and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply said a gauge of U.K. services based on a survey of companies rose to 57.1, the highest level in 13 months and above the median forecast of 52.6.
“The number was much higher than all expectations across the market, so the net impact has been strong in favor of the pound,” said Roberto Mialich, a senior currency strategist at UniCredit SpA in Milan. “The data hints that the risk of a prolonged stagnation is vanishing. The BOE will be forced to raise rates this year, and this should limit the downside potential for sterling.”
The dollar rose against the yen after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said yesterday inflation must be watched “extremely closely,” spurring bets interest rates may be raised sooner than forecast.
Australia’s dollar dropped from almost a record after the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens held the overnight cash target rate at 4.75 percent for a fourth straight meeting as floods disrupted coal mining in the nation’s northeast and a rising currency tempered inflation.

Spot gold posts a new record high of $1450.14/oz; silver a new 31-year high at $38.99/oz
EUR/JPY above Y120.00

Adding lift to euro-dollar, euro-yen stretched to fresh multi-month highs atop Y120.00 where offers had capped earlier. Resistance at Y120.46, the current top of the daily Bollinger band, further resistance at Y120.68 that is a fibo level.

Dow +7.42 at 12407.45, Nasdaq +8.12 at 2797.31, S&P +1.61 at 1334.48

The dollar index continues to show some strength this morning, which is pressuring select commodities.
May crude oil has been in negative territory all session and hit session lows of $107.50/barrel. In current trade, the energy component is down 0.3% at $108.15/barrel.
May natural gas was in the red this morning ahead of pit trading, but when the pits opened, natural gas pushed into positive territory and to new session highs of $4.32. Its currently just above the unchanged line at $2.27/MMBtu.
Precious metals are higher this morning with June gold up 0.4% at $1439.40/ounce and May silver is up 0.4% at $38.66/ounce.

BNY-Mellon on nonmfg ISM

BNY-Mellon says Mar's 57.3 nonmfg ISM marks a 20th consecutive month of growth "and the second month that all index components were in expansionary territory." Members were concerned about "the recent natural disasters in Japan and the associated supply chain ramifications. Additionally, there is concern over rising costs, most notably for fuel and fuel products." Services are "consistent with the 3-4% growth trajectory for 2011" and employment is expanding in both mfg and nonmfg ISM surveys, BNY says.

Dow -39.28 at 12360.75, Nasdaq -0.82 at 2788.32, S&P -1.97 at 1331.00

A flurry of selling in response to the latest ISM Services Index recently took stocks a leg lower, but the major equity averages have been quick to bounce back. Overall trade remains listless, though.
The ISM Services Index for came in at 57.3. Not only is that down from the 59.7 that had been recorded for the prior month, but it is less than the 59.5 that had been broadly expected among economists.

US: Mar nonmfg ISM data
  • new orders 64.1 vs 64.4;
  • employment 53.7 vs 55.6;
  • prices paid 72.1.
US: Mar nonmfg ISM 57.3 vs 59.7 Feb.
Before the bell: Nasdaq's Apple may drag on stocks

U.S. stocks may open lower Tuesday, as investors mull over the rebalancing of the Nasdaq-100 index to diminish Apple's influence, a rate hike in China and another downgrade of Portugal's debt.

Nasdaq OMX Group announced Tuesday it will rebalance its tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 index, reducing Apple's (AAPL, Fortune 500) weight by almost 40% - to 12.3% from 20.5%. The change takes effect on May 2.
The change will lend more weight to Google (GOOG, Fortune 500), Intel (INTC, Fortune 500), Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500) and Oracle (ORCL, Fortune 500).
Apple shares fell nearly 3% in premarket trading. Microsoft, Intel and Oracle each nudged about 1% higher.
The People's Bank of China also surprised investors Tuesday by announcing a quarter percentage point hike in interest rates, as part of its continued efforts to gradually slow down the country's rapidly rising prices.
China's benchmark one-year lending rate now stands at 6.31%.
Economy: At 14:00 GMT the Institute for Supply Management will release its monthly gauge on the service-sector index for March. Economists are looking for the index to slip slightly to 59.5, compared with last month's reading of 59.7.
Later in the day, the Federal Reserve will release minutes from its March 15 policy meeting.
Companies: KB Home (KBH) shares fell nearly 6% after the homebuilder announced a quarterly loss of $114.5 million, or $1.49 a share. That's far deeper than the loss analysts were expecting.
Shares of rival homebuilder Lennar Corp. (LEN) fell 0.5% in early trading after the announcement.

GBP/USD reprinted highs

GBP/USD refreshed session highe after rising to $1.6265 where recent reports suggested stops. But rate retreated to $1.6247. Mixed talk of stops staggered up to $1.6300 intermingled with barriers at $1.6280 and $1.6300.

EUR/USD rebounds

EUR/USD extends recovery and currently holds around $1.4175 after a dip to $1.4160. Earlier bids were mentioned there down to $1.4140 with stops below.

AUD/USD back to $1.0320

AUD/USD recovered to $1.0320 amid talk of some euro-aussie selling. Talk now also of large stops on a break down $1.0300 despite talk of bids sub $1.0290. Aussie trades $1.0318.

EUR/JPY holds tight

EUR/JPY holds around Y119.57, a bit higher Asian opening at Y119.54. Overnight cross rallied to Y119.92 before settling around Y119.70/80. The pair then came under pressure as Europe opened to a Moody's downgrade of Portugal prompting further sales to a low of Y119.35.

USD/JPY set stable

USD/JPY holds around Y84.35. In Asia rate rose to Y84.49 following the comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke before easing back to Y84.20. Talk now of solid bids around Y84.20 with further demand from day traders towards Y83.80. Offers from exporters are seen starting from Y84.50 up to Y84.80.


Early rally paused at $1439.15 before falling back on profit taking to a low of $1430.10. Later prices settled back around $1432.50. The low was a bit lower the support at $1430.50 with further seen towards $1419.50. Resistance remains at the day's high ahead of the all time high of $1447.85.

AUD/USD weakens

AUD/USD fell under $0.0300 after the PBOC rate hike. rate triggered bids and stops, printing session lows around $1.0288. Currently rate holds back at $1.0295/00.

EU focus: Euro below recent peaks; market awaits FOMC's minutes

The euro hovered below a five-month high against the dollar on Tuesday as investors assessed whether it can make fresh gains given that market players have already positioned themselves for a series of interest rate hikes in the euro zone during 2011.
The European Central Bank is expected to raise rates by a quarter point from a record low of 1% at a meeting on Thursday to rein in inflationary pressures, with two more 25 basis point hikes priced in by year-end .
But the single currency has already risen more than 6% against the dollar and more than 10% versus the yen this year, making investors reluctant to buy more ahead of the meeting this week.
"For the ECB, an April interest rate hike is a done deal and one or two more hikes are priced in. It's hard to see a positive surprise from here," said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief FX strategist at Barclays Bank.
A rise above its November peak of $1.4283 could open the way to $1.4374 (76.4% retracement of the euro's slide from November 2009 to June 2010). Support is seen at $1.4190, with traders citing stops through to below $1.4150.

The Australian dollar dipped, pressured by profit-taking in the wake of its rise to a 29-year high of $1.0422 the previous day. There was talk of both bids and stop-loss offers around $1.0300.
The Reserve Bank of Australia decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.75% as widely expected.
"In the medium term, the Aussie remains supported, but there is some room for position reduction. Rather than looking for a run-up in Aussie/U.S. dollar, you would look at Aussie/yen and perhaps Aussie/Swiss franc," said Robert Ryan, senior currency strategist for BNP Paribas.
Later on Tuesday, focus will turn to the Fed minutes for more hints on the Fed's policy outlook.
Underscoring the market's focus on Fed speakers, the dollar edged higher against the yen and the euro earlier on Tuesday, following comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.
Bernanke said a recent pick-up in U.S. inflation was driven primarily by rising commodity prices globally, but added that was unlikely to persist.

CHINA: PBOC hikes interes rate by 25 points (effective April 6)
GBP/USD retreats

GBP/USD retreats after ralling amid strong PMI data. Rate printed high on $1.6249/50 and possibly tweaking a barrier. Talk of further barrier interest $1.6280 and $1.6300, with the March 24 high ahead of them at $1.6268. Cable trades $1.6238.

ECB ORDONEZ: Euro pact go right direction
  • European measures will help confidence, econ discipline
  • Spain cbank must analyze 13,not 12 bank recap. plans
  • On spain's economy, must be patient
  • It is key to continue spain savings bank restructuring
  • Spain banks must be ready to lend when demand recovers.
ECB ORDONEZ: Euro pact go right direction
  • European measures will help confidence, econ discipline
  • Spain cbank must analyze 13,not 12 bank recap. plans
  • On spain's economy, must be patient
  • It is key to continue spain savings bank restructuring
  • Spain banks must be ready to lend when demand recovers.
FED, Evans: Housing mkt is not going to contribute to recovery
  • would like to see inflation move closer to 2%;
  • need 300k jobs/mth to help employment situation;
  • looking for 4% growth in next 2 years;
  • $600b QE is likely right amount.
FTSE -0.29% 6,000, CAC -0.52% 4,022, DAX -0.29% 7,155
OPTIONS: London expiries for todays 1400GMT cut:

USD:JPY Y83.00, Y83.40, Y83.55, Y84.00, Y84.10, Y84.25, Y85.00, Y85.50, Y87.00
EUR/USD $1.4000, $1.4200, $1.4300, $1.4350
EUR/JPY Y119.00 
AUD/USD $1.0200. $1.0250, $1.0350, $1.0450 

Retail sales in the Eurozone unexpectedly declined in February, slipping 0.1% on the month, resulting in an annual increase of 0.1%
REACT: Cable rallies 55 pips to $1.6211 following release of stronger than expected UK CIPS PMI services data.
UK PMI CIPS services 57.1
Asian session: The yen fell

01:30 Australia Trade Balance (Feb) -0.205B
04:30 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Apr) 4.75%

The yen fell against all its major counterparts before reports that economists said will show European retail sales increased and U.S. service industries expanded, reducing demand for Japan’s currency as a refuge.
The dollar approached a six-month high versus the yen after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said inflation expectations need to be watched “extremely closely.” 
The euro rose toward a 10-month high against Japan’s currency on speculation the European Central Bank will raise interest rates this week while the Bank of Japan will keep them near zero.
Australia’s dollar fell for a second day after central bank Governor Governor Glenn Stevens left interest rates unchanged and a government report showed the country unexpectedly recorded a trade deficit.

EUR/USD: the pair shown low in the field of $1.4170 then returned back to around $1.4200.
GBP/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1.6100-$ 1.6140.
USD/JPY: the pair become stronger in around Y84.40.

European data for Tuesday includes the release of EMU retail trade for February at 0900GMT.
US data - at 1400GMT, when the ISM non-manufacturing index is expected to hold steady at 

Forex: Tusday's review

The dollar fluctuated against the yen as Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said the U.S. economic recovery faces headwinds, encouraging speculation the central bank will keep borrowing costs low.
The dollar slid versus the euro on April 1 after New York Fed President William C. Dudley said the recovery is “still tenuous,” disagreeing with colleagues who said the central bank should curtail purchases of U.S. debt.
The euro fell on concern an increase in interest rates by the European Central Bank will hurt the economies of the region’s most-indebted nations. 
The euro appreciated 3.5% in the first quarter. It was the best three-month performance since the shared currency began trading in 1999.
ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet surprised investors on March 3, when he signaled that policy makers may raise interest rates at their next meeting to curb consumer-price inflation, which reached a two-year high of 2.6% in March.

EUR/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1.4190-$ 1.4270.
GBP/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1.6100-$ 1.6175.
USD/JPY: the pair bargained within the limits of Y83.85-Y84.40.
European data for Tuesday includes the release of EMU retail trade for February at 0900GMT.
US data - at 1400GMT, when the ISM non-manufacturing index is expected to hold steady at a reading of 59.7 in March after rising only slightly in February.

European final Mar services PMI 57.2
German final Mar service PMI 60.1
Stocks: Tuesday's review

Most Japanese stocks fell after real-estate companies declined on concerns the March 11 temblor may hurt earnings and agriculture shares dropped as Tokyo Electric Power Co. failed to stop a radioactive water leak.
Mitsubishi Estate Co., the country’s biggest developer by market value, lost 2.5 percent after Credit Suisse Group AG lowered its rating on Japan’s real-estate industry to “market weight” from “overweight.”
Mitsui Fudosan Co., Japan’s the second-largest developer, slid 1.9 percent to 1,381 yen. Sumitomo Realty & Development Co., the No. 3, declined 3.4 percent to 1,633 yen.
Maruha Nichiro Holdings Inc. (1334), which sells seafood, declined 1.7 percent as Tokyo Electric Power said radioactive water may be flowing into the sea through a different crack in a damaged reactor than initially thought.
The Nikkei 225 declined 12 percent in the Japanese fiscal year that finished March 31, and dropped 4.6 percent last quarter. Among the Topix’s industry groups, utility companies including Tokyo Electric Power tumbled the most last fiscal year, followed by brokerages, while oil refiners led gains.
Most European stocks rose, extending a three-week high for the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, as chemical makers advanced after Solvay SA (SOLB) agreed to buy Rhodia SA (RHA) for 3.4 billion euros ($4.8 billion).
Rhodia surged 48 percent in Paris trading, its biggest increase on record. Solvay agreed to buy the specialty chemicals producer for 31.60 euros a share as the Belgian maker of soda ash seeks to expand operations in emerging markets. Solvay gained 2.3 percent to 85.79 euros.
A gauge of chemical companies in the Stoxx 600 climbed to the highest level since at least 1987. Croda International Plc (CRDA), a supplier of ingredients for Nivea sunblock, gained 1.4 percent to 1,718 pence.
Leverkusen, Germany-based Lanxess AG (LXS) jumped 3.7 percent to 56.73 euros and France’s Arkema SA (AKE) gained 2.3 percent to 66.66 euros.
Nokian Renkaat Oyj (NRE1V) climbed 7.9 percent as Nordic region’s biggest tiremaker reported increased earnings and revenue.
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA (BMPS) fell 1.9 percent after a report the Italian bank may raise 2 billion euros in new capital.
Rio Tinto Group climbed 1.3 percent to 4,478 pence after analysts at Nomura Holdings Inc. said the third-largest mining company may double a share buyback plan to $10 billion after purchasing $800 million of stock, or 16 percent of the program announced in February.
The management’s share purchases have “progressed faster than expected,” Paul Cliff, a Nomura analyst, wrote in a note today. “They believe the buyback could take half as much time as initially scheduled,” he said after Chief Executive Officer Tom Albanese visited the securities firm in London on April 1.
U.S. stocks were little changed Monday as investors took a wait-and-see approach about the economy.
The Dow was led higher by shares of General Electric (GE, Fortune 500), which rose 1% after an article in Barron's -- citing a Citigroup analyst -- noted that GE may not be liable for financial damage in Japan's nuclear crisis. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, Fortune 500) and Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500) were also higher.
Technology shares were the biggest drag on all three major indexes, with Intel (INTC, Fortune 500) shares down 1%, Nvidia (NVDA) shares down 4%, and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500) shares down more than 1%.
But overall, Monday was relatively quiet. Fund managers noted that trading volume was light. There were also no major economic or company reports.
Companies: Southwest Airlines (LUV, Fortune 500) shares fell 2%. The Texas-based airline canceled about 600 flights over the weekend after a hole opened on top of a Boeing 737-300 mid-flight Friday.
Pfizer (PFE, Fortune 500) shares rose 0.5% after the drugmaker announced it will sell its Capsugel capsule-making unit to Kohlberg Kravis Roberts (KKR) for $2.38 billion in cash.

Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3:Y84.50 (Aug 13 high) 
Resistance 2:Y85.90 (Sep 16-17 high) 
Resistance 1:Y84.75 (Apr 1 high) 
Current price: Y84.34
Support 1:Y83.80 (Apr 4 low)    
Support 2:Y82.50 (Mar 31 low)    
Support 3:Y81.50 (Mar 29 low)    
Comments: the pair bargains in former frameworks. The nearest support - Y83,80. Below losses are possible to Y82.50. The nearest resistance - Y84.75. Above growth ia possible to Y85.90. 

Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9370 (high  of March)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9340 (Apr 1 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9255 (session high)
Current price: Chf0.9220
Support 1: Chf0.9190 (Apr 4 low)
Support 2: Chf0.9120 (Mar 31 low)
Support 3: Chf0.9090 (support line from Mar 16)
Comments: the pair slightly decreased. The nearest support - Chf0,9190. Below loss may extend to Chf0.9120. The nearest resistance - Chf0.9255.  Above is located Chf0.9340. 

Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6400 (Mar 22 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.6265 (Mar 24 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6180 (Apr 4 high)
Current price: $1.6121
Support 1 : $1.6100 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.5930 (Mar 28-29 low)
Support 32 : $1.5820 (Jan 31 low)
Comments: the pair bargains in a narrow range. The nearest resistance - area $1.6180. Above growth is possible to $1.6265. The nearest support $1.6100. Below is possible testings of around $1.5930. 

Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.4250 (Jan'2010 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.4410 (Jan 19'2010 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.4270/85 (Apr 4 high, high of November,  resistance line from Jul 2008)
Current price: $1.4202
Support 1 : $1.4185 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.4090 (support line from Jan 10)
Support 3 : $1.4020 (Mar 28 low)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of $1.4200. The nearest support $1,4185. Below losses are possible to $1.4090. The nearest resistance - $1.4270/85. Above growth is possible to $1,4410. 

Schedule for today, Tuesday, Apr 05 2011:

03:30 Australia RBA meeting announcement 4.75% 4.75% 4.75%
07:55 Germany PMI services (March) seasonally adjusted 60.1 58.6
08:00 EU(17) PMI services (March) 56.9 56.8
08:30 UK CIPS services index (March) 52.3 56.2
09:00 EU(17) Retail sales (February) adjusted 0.0% 0.4%
09:00 EU(17) Retail sales (February) adjusted Y/Y 0.6% 0.7%
14:00 USA ISM Non-mfg composite index (March) 59.7 59.7
18:00 USA FOMC meeting minutes (15.03)  

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