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04.12.2019
23:30
Schedule for today, Thursday, December 5, 2019
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
00:30 Australia Retail Sales, M/M October 0.2% 0.3%
00:30 Australia Trade Balance October 7.18 6.1
07:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) October 1.3% 0.3%
10:00 Eurozone Employment Change Quarter III 0.2% 0.1%
10:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) October 0.1% -0.3%
10:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) October 3.1% 2.2%
10:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) Quarter III 0.2% 0.2%
10:00 Eurozone GDP (YoY) Quarter III 1.2% 1.2%
12:45 Canada Gov Council Member Lane Speaks    
13:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims 1640 1650
13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 213 215
13:30 Canada Trade balance, billions October -0.98 -1.37
13:30 U.S. International Trade, bln October -52.5 -48.7
15:00 U.S. Factory Orders October -0.6% 0.3%
15:00 U.S. FOMC Member Quarles Speaks    
15:00 Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index November 48.2 53.8
21:30 Australia AiG Performance of Construction Index November 43.9  
23:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings, YoY October 0.8% 1.1%
23:30 Japan Household spending Y/Y October 9.5% -3%
21:09
Major US stock indices closed in positive territory

Major US stock indexes rose moderately, helped by Bloomberg reports that US-China negotiations on the first phase of the deal are developing, despite the harsh rhetoric of the US president.

As informed sources told the agency, the parties are approaching agreements on what tariffs should be abolished and how to guarantee China's purchase of agricultural products from the United States. One source also noted that a bill passed by the U.S. Congress to sanction senior Chinese officials for human rights abuses in Hong Kong and Xinjiang should not affect negotiations.

However, CNBC correspondent in Beijing Eunice Yun wrote on Twitter that its sources say that China believed that they had a deal in principle to abolish tariffs in early November, but Trump backed away from him. “Therefore, it is unclear how close [to the deal] the two sides really are,” she added.

US President Donald Trump himself told reporters before meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel that trade negotiations with China are progressing "very well." He also noted that he is optimistic about trade negotiations with the EU, and believes that the United States will make great progress.

At the same time, market participants almost ignored the disappointing reports from ADP and ISM. A survey by ADP showed that companies added the smallest number of workers in six months, highlighting the trend of a slowdown in hiring amid an outflow of corporate investment and simultaneously pointing to a slowdown in economic growth in the fourth quarter. According to the data, in November the number of jobs increased by 67,000 - the second lowest since 2010 - after a revised increase of 121,000 in October. This turned out to be below the forecasts of economists (135 00) 0.

An ISM report showed that business activity in the US services sector slowed more than expected in November, amid continuing concerns about trade tensions and a shortage of workers. According to the report, the index of non-productive activity fell to 53.9 from 54.7 in October. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion in the services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US economic activity. Economists had forecast the index to fall to 54.5 in November.

Most DOW components completed trading in positive territory (24 out of 30). The biggest gainers were JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM; + 1.94%). Outsiders were shares of Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO; -0.82%).

Almost all S&P sectors recorded an increase. The base materials sector grew the most (+ 1.3%). Only the conglomerate sector decreased (+ 0.1%).

At the time of closing:

Dow 27,664.93 +162.12 +0.59%

S&P 500 3,113.48 +20.28 +0.66%

Nasdaq 100 8,568.11 +47.47 +0.56%

20:50
Schedule for tomorrow, Thursday, December 5, 2019
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
00:30 Australia Retail Sales, M/M October 0.2% 0.3%
00:30 Australia Trade Balance October 7.18 6.1
07:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) October 1.3% 0.3%
10:00 Eurozone Employment Change Quarter III 0.2% 0.1%
10:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) October 0.1% -0.3%
10:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) October 3.1% 2.2%
10:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) Quarter III 0.2% 0.2%
10:00 Eurozone GDP (YoY) Quarter III 1.2% 1.2%
12:45 Canada Gov Council Member Lane Speaks    
13:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims 1640 1650
13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 213 215
13:30 Canada Trade balance, billions October -0.98 -1.37
13:30 U.S. International Trade, bln October -52.5 -48.7
15:00 U.S. Factory Orders October -0.6% 0.3%
15:00 U.S. FOMC Member Quarles Speaks    
15:00 Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index November 48.2 53.8
21:30 Australia AiG Performance of Construction Index November 43.9  
23:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings, YoY October 0.8% 1.1%
23:30 Japan Household spending Y/Y October 9.5% -3%
20:00
DJIA +0.77% 27,715.28 +212.47 Nasdaq +0.74% 8,583.91 +63.27 S&P +0.83% 3,118.78 +25.58
17:00
European stocks closed: FTSE 100 7,188.50 +29.74 +0.42% DAX 13,140.57 +151.28 +1.16% CAC 40 5,799.68 +72.46 +1.27%
16:04
BoC unlikely to cut rates in January next yaer - TDS

Although the Bank of Canada (BoC) was careful to leave all options open going forward, analysts at TD Securities no longer think the Canadian central bank is likely to cut rates in January.

  • "For a central bank that has been pre-occupied with downside risks from global trade developments, this is notable and suggests growing confidence that the worst-case scenario will be avoided.
  • The Bank has always given the distinct impression that they would prefer not to cut rates from these levels if they could at all help it – and with the upward revisions to GDP in late 2018 and early 2019 we believe the output gap is roughly 0.2 p.p. smaller than previously reported.
  • We will still look for the economy to slow next year (we are forecasting 2020 GDP growth at 1.4-1.5%), so we do expect that the BoC will eventually be forced to cut rates – the timeframe for easing will just stretch a little bit later into 2020. We now look for a 25bp rate cut in April 2020."

15:35
EIA’s report reveals a larger-than-expected decline in U.S. crude oil inventories

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed on Wednesday that crude inventories decreased by 4.856 million barrels in the week ended November 29. Economists had forecast a drop of 1.500 million barrels.

At the same time, gasoline stocks surged by 3.385 million barrels, while analysts had expected an increase of 1.750 million barrels. Distillate stocks climbed by 3.063 million barrels, while analysts had forecast an advance of 0.250 million barrels.

Meanwhile, oil production in the U.S. was unchanged at 12.900 million barrels a day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.0 million barrels per day last week, down by 201,000 barrels per day from the previous week.

15:30
U.S.: Crude Oil Inventories, November -4.856 (forecast -1.798)
15:20
BoC maintains its benchmark interest rates at 1.75%

The Bank of Canada (BoC) left its benchmark interest rates unchanged at 1.75 percent on Wednesday, as widely expected.

In its policy statement, the Canadian central bank said that Governing Council judged it appropriate to maintain the current level of the overnight rate target, adding that future interest rate decisions would be guided by the Bank’s continuing assessment of the adverse impact of trade conflicts against the sources of resilience in the Canadian economy - notably consumer spending and housing activity. Fiscal policy developments were also said to be figured into the Bank’s updated outlook in January.

The BoC noted that the ongoing trade conflicts and related uncertainty are still weighing on global economic activity, and remain the biggest source of risk to the outlook. In this context, commodity prices and the Canadian dollar have remained relatively stable, the Bank adds.

15:09
U.S. non-manufacturing sector’s growth decelerates in November - ISM

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported on Wednesday its non-manufacturing index (NMI) came in at 53.9 in November, which was 0.8 percentage points lower than the October reading of 54.7 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector, at a slightly slower rate.

Economists forecast the index to edge down to 54.5 last month. A reading above 50 signals expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 12 reported growth last month, the ISM said, adding that the respondents hope for a resolution on tariffs and continue to be hampered by constraints in labor resources.

According to the report, the ISM’s non-manufacturing business activity measure fell to 51.6 percent, 5.4 percentage points lower than the October reading of 57 percent. That reflected growth for the 124th consecutive month, at a slower rate in November. Meanwhile, the New orders gauge increased to 57.1 percent, up 1.5 percentage points from the reading of 55.6 percent in October. The Employment indicator surged 1.8 percentage points in November to 55.5 percent from the October reading of 53.7 percent. The Prices Index 1.9 percentage points from the October reading of 56.6 percent to 58.5 percent, indicating that prices increased in November for the 30th consecutive month.

15:00
U.S.: ISM Non-Manufacturing, November 53.9 (forecast 54.5)
15:00
Canada: Bank of Canada Rate, 1.75% (forecast 1.75%)
14:45
U.S.: Services PMI, November 51.6 (forecast 51.6)
14:37
France's Finance Minister Le Maire: All options are on table to respond to U.S. threat of tariffs on French goods

  • Says she will discuss trade issues with U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin
  • If U.S. imposes tariffs on France, EU will react in a united way to protect France

14:33
U.S. Stocks open: Dow +0.44%, Nasdaq +0.41%, S&P +0.33%
14:24
Chances of a big fiscal boost in Germany seem low – ABN AMRO

Aline Schuiling, the senior economist at ABN AMRO, says that for the German economy, even in the unlikely event that early elections were held, the chances of a big fiscal boost seem low.

  • “To begin with, according to current government plans, the general budget surplus would decline from around 1.2% GDP in 2019 to 0.2% in 2021. This means that, staying within the rules of the debt-brake, extra spending of around EUR 15-20bn would be possible during the next few years, which would raise annual GDP growth by roughly 0.2-0.3pp.
  • Alternatively, a bigger fiscal boost would mean that the debt-brake rule needs to be changed, which would require two-thirds majorities in each of the two chambers of parliament.
  • Looking at the current distributions of the seats in parliament as well as recent polls for new elections, the parties in favour of changing the debt-brake rule would miss the two-thirds majority by a wide margin.”

14:17
Before the bell: S&P futures +0.39%, NASDAQ futures +0.51%

U.S. stock-index futures rose on Wednesday, supported by Bloomberg’s report that U.S. and China were edging closer to a trade deal despite the tough-minded rhetoric from the U.S. President Trump.


Global Stocks:

Index/commodity

Last

Today's Change, points

Today's Change, %

Nikkei

23,135.23

-244.58

-1.05%

Hang Seng

26,062.56

-328.74

-1.25%

Shanghai

2,878.12

-6.58

-0.23%

S&P/ASX

6,606.50

-105.80

-1.58%

FTSE

7,153.72

-5.04

-0.07%

CAC

5,786.29

+59.07

+1.03%

DAX

13,107.27

+117.98

+0.91%

Crude oil

$57.13


+1.84%

Gold

$1,484.10


-0.02%

13:58
China's services PMI posts strong reading in November – TDS

Analysts at TD Securities note that China’s Caixin services PMI rose to 53.5 (mkt 51.2) in November from 51.1 in October, marking its highest reading since April, and echoed the better than forecast manufacturing PMIs.

  • “Taken together, this resulted in the composite PMI rising to 53.2 from 52.0 previously. The details revealed a slight fall in the employment component to 51 from 51.1 previously. Overall good news, highlighting that China's service sector continues to expand. However, it is doubtful that this will outweigh the impact of the steady drumbeat of negative trade news, leaving CNH on the backfoot.”


13:56
Wall Street. Stocks before the bell

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)


3M Co

MMM

166.15

0.98(0.59%)

5736

ALCOA INC.

AA

19.95

0.16(0.81%)

7874

ALTRIA GROUP INC.

MO

50.18

0.08(0.16%)

3908

Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ

AMZN

1,777.00

7.04(0.40%)

32659

Apple Inc.

AAPL

261.42

1.97(0.76%)

288841

AT&T Inc

T

37.69

0.14(0.37%)

23371

Boeing Co

BA

353.65

1.57(0.45%)

24091

Caterpillar Inc

CAT

141.01

0.95(0.68%)

6802

Chevron Corp

CVX

116.85

0.96(0.83%)

3420

Cisco Systems Inc

CSCO

44.4

0.12(0.27%)

9499

Citigroup Inc., NYSE

C

73.68

0.35(0.48%)

7117

Deere & Company, NYSE

DE

164.5

1.00(0.61%)

2421

E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Co

DD

62.85

0.28(0.45%)

1467

Exxon Mobil Corp

XOM

68.28

0.40(0.59%)

32684

Facebook, Inc.

FB

199.77

0.95(0.48%)

69559

FedEx Corporation, NYSE

FDX

152.02

0.88(0.58%)

11835

Ford Motor Co.

F

8.95

0.06(0.68%)

30710

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE

FCX

11.11

0.19(1.74%)

33113

General Electric Co

GE

11.12

0.13(1.18%)

293779

General Motors Company, NYSE

GM

35.75

0.22(0.62%)

1416

Goldman Sachs

GS

213.16

0.92(0.43%)

1944

Google Inc.

GOOG

1,304.49

9.21(0.71%)

5750

Hewlett-Packard Co.

HPQ

19.77

0.14(0.71%)

3550

Home Depot Inc

HD

213.6

0.96(0.45%)

20355

Intel Corp

INTC

56.39

0.32(0.57%)

24961

International Business Machines Co...

IBM

133

0.88(0.67%)

2817

Johnson & Johnson

JNJ

138.24

1.08(0.79%)

15015

JPMorgan Chase and Co

JPM

130.61

0.83(0.64%)

6953

McDonald's Corp

MCD

193.93

0.81(0.42%)

2874

Merck & Co Inc

MRK

87.11

-0.27(-0.31%)

4521

Microsoft Corp

MSFT

149.9

0.59(0.40%)

85712

Nike

NKE

92.93

0.47(0.51%)

2487

Pfizer Inc

PFE

38.24

0.19(0.50%)

4508

Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ

SBUX

85

0.18(0.21%)

3684

Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ

TSLA

337.84

1.64(0.49%)

43186

Twitter, Inc., NYSE

TWTR

30.12

0.15(0.50%)

57888

United Technologies Corp

UTX

144

0.27(0.19%)

685

UnitedHealth Group Inc

UNH

278.2

1.30(0.47%)

1483

Verizon Communications Inc

VZ

60.01

-0.13(-0.22%)

8661

Visa

V

182.99

1.09(0.60%)

7984

Wal-Mart Stores Inc

WMT

119.14

0.47(0.40%)

14694

Walt Disney Co

DIS

149.5

0.92(0.62%)

37594

Yandex N.V., NASDAQ

YNDX

40.75

0.14(0.34%)

1867

13:33
U.S. President Trump: China trade discussions are going "very well"

  • Says he is optimistic on EU trade talks and believes U.S. will make a lot of progress
  • NATO meeting was successful
  • Rest of Japan trade deal will come next year

13:30
Canada: Labor Productivity, Quarter III 0.2% (forecast 0.8%)
13:21
U.S. private employers add 67,000 jobs in November - ADP

The employment report prepared by Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) and Moody's Analytics showed on Wednesday the U.S. private employers added 67,000 jobs in November.

Economists had expected a gain of 140,000.

The increase for October was revised down to 121,000 from the originally reported 125,000.

“In November, the labor market showed signs of slowing,” noted Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “The goods producers still struggled; whereas, the service providers remained in positive territory driven by healthcare and professional services. Job creation slowed across all company sizes; however, the pattern remained largely the same, as small companies continued to face more pressure than their larger competitors.”

Meanwhile, Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The job market is losing its shine. Manufacturers, commodity producers, and retailers are shedding jobs. Job openings are declining and if job growth slows any further unemployment will increase.”

13:01
ECB to announce soon the start of the first strategic review since 2003 – ING

Carsten Brzeski, the Chief Economist ING Germany, notes that during her first appearance at the European Parliament as ECB President, Christine Lagarde left no doubt that the ECB will soon announce the start of the first strategic review since 2003.

  • "Reading between the lines and also taking into account Isabel Schnabel’s comments at her hearing at the European Parliament this week, it appears that the ECB wants to take a broad approach, with no limits. In our view, it is very likely that Lagarde will announce the start of this review at next week’s ECB meeting. This is the first ECB policy meeting since Lagarde came into office.
  • With the experience of 2003 in mind and current (and new) challenges for central banks in a low growth, low inflation and negative interest rate environment, we expect the ECB’s review to eventually focus on four main issues: the definition of price stability, how to interpret the mandate, climate change and communication.
  • Here is what the issues are broadly about and our current take on the possible outcome.

  1. Definition of price stability. While more hawkish central banks have been arguing in favour of lowering the ECB’s inflation target, inflation differentials and deflationary risks argue in favour of sticking with or even increasing the target. Also, there should be a discussion about a single point target versus a range and the question of whether the ECB should tolerate an overshooting of its inflation target to make up for a period of undershooting the inflation objective.
  2. Changing the mandate and including climate change. Recently there have been calls on the ECB to include measures to tackle climate change. These calls received more support in Lagarde’s latest comments at the European Parliament. 
  3. Communication. A lot has been written about possible changes to communication. Ideas like dot plots or releasing voting records have been around for a while.

  • Currently, Lagarde is trying to give the impression that no stone will be left unturned and that the review will be extremely broad. We don’t expect any conclusion of such a review – which has not even started yet – before the second half of 2020. Our current guess is that expectations should not be set too high. A change of the price stability definition to “around 2%”, along with some incorporation of climate change and more communication transparency looks like a possible outcome. However, before any of these conclusions materialize many stones will have to be turned."

12:35
U.S. non-manufacturing PMI likely to firm in November – TDS

Analysts at TD Securities are expecting a mild decrease in the U.S. non-manufacturing PMI, largely reflecting the recent moderation in consumer spending.

  • “Following the surprise to the downside in the manufacturing survey, we look for a modest decline in the non-manufacturing index to a still firm 54.5 in November following last month's 2pt gain to 54.7.”

12:17
ECB widely expected to refrain from acting on monetary policy in December – UOB

Lee Sue Ann, an economist at UOB Group, notes the ECB is widely expected to leave rates on hold at this month’s meeting.

  • “This would be Christine Lagarde’s first meeting as ECB president. She may not have to change policy for some time as the latest stimulus package runs its course. But further out, providing more stimulus could be complicated, largely because so much has already been deployed. The ECB’s deposit rate is already at a record-low of -0.5% and its bond-buying programme is close to self-imposed limits on how much of each country’s debt it can own”.

12:06
U.S. weekly mortgage applications tumble

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported on Wednesday the mortgage application volume in the U.S. tumbled 9.2 percent in the week ended November 29, following a 1.5 percent climb in the previous week.

According to the report, refinance applications slumped 15.6 percent, while applications to purchase a home rose 0.9 percent

Meanwhile, the average fixed 30-year mortgage rate was unchanged at 3.97 percent.

“U.S. Treasury rates stayed flat last week, as uncertainty surrounding the U.K. elections offset positive domestic news on consumer spending,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “The purchase market overall looks healthy as we enter the home stretch of 2019,” added Kan. “The seasonally adjusted purchase index was at its highest level since July, as a combination of wage gains, slower home-price appreciation, and slightly easing inventory conditions [for new construction] continue to support increased activity.”

11:56
Trade in the news again – Danske Bank

Analysts at Danske Bank note that market sentiment was dented by news that the Trump administration is not only planning to slap new tariffs on French goods (and preparing for a next tariff round in the Airbus subsidies battle with the EU), but also mulls going ahead with the planned 15 December tariff hike on Chinese imports if nothing changes in the remaining two weeks.

  • “While talks between the two sides continue, no big meeting is scheduled. Trump yesterday also indicated some patience about striking a deal with China only after the US election, casting further doubts on a 'phase one' deal. To us, the comments suggest some frustration on the US side on how much China is willing to give in exchange for a tariff rollback. However, without the tailwind from a 'phase one' deal with China, Trump will face a difficult battle in important 'farming' swing states in the upcoming election in our view."

11:37
ECB to keep policy steady – TDS

Analysts at TD Securities are expecting the ECB to hold policy steady, and have pushed back their forecast for rate cuts by one quarter to March and June 2020.

  • “With the Eurozone growth data having stabilized for now, there isn't any sense of urgency to ease further right away, leaving Ms Lagarde to focus on mending fences and building a consensus in her early days.”

11:16
U.S. November manufacturing ISM PMI points to further investment and jobs weakness – ABN AMRO

Bill Diviney, the senior economist at ABN AMRO, notes that the U.S. November manufacturing ISM PMI, which was released on Monday, unexpectedly fell back, with the weakness concentrated in the forward-looking new orders index, which was back at the August low of 47.2 and the employment index, which was not far off the recent low at 46.6 (September: 46.3).

  • “The data suggests that, in contrast to China, manufacturing has yet to find a bottom in the US, and points to continued weakness in investment and jobs growth. The new orders index is a strong leading indicator for fixed investment in the US, and suggests flat to mildly negative growth over the next two quarters.
  • The employment index tracks the manufacturing payrolls, and suggests an additional leg lower in Friday’s November jobs data. Indeed, looking at the slowdown in payrolls growth over the past year – which has fallen from an average 223k per month in 2018 to 156k over the past six months – the bulk of this is explained by the weakness in manufacturing, which went from adding 53k in jobs per month on average in 2018 to just 2.2k per month in the past 6 months (the October reading was negative for the first time since 2016).
  • We expect this weakness to ultimately hit consumption, which has thus far been resilient to the industrial sector downturn. As such, our growth forecast for 2020 remains well below consensus at 1.3% (consensus: 1.8%), and we expect this to drive another Fed rate cut in Q1 2020.”

10:58
Asia: PMIs back in expansion territory – TDS

Mitul Kotecha, senior emerging markets strategist at TD Securities, points out that there was slight improvement in Asia's manufacturing PMI's in November, with all but two (Thailand and Philippines) rising.

“Nonetheless, 6 out of the 9 country PMIs are in contraction below the 50 boom/bust mark and some are sharply lower compared to a year ago. China which moved back into expansion, India and Philippines were the outliers over 50. Thailand in contrast moved from expansion into contraction. Our composite GDP weighted PMI moved back into expansion to its highest since April 2019 after slipping below 50 last month. Stripping China out, Asia's composite PMI recorded a 6th straight month in contraction. The PMI's support evidence that the second derivative of data is improving and that the region is bottoming. Some of the bounce may have been due to trade hopes, which are at risk of reversing given the lack of progress on 'Phase 1'. However, there are signs of improvement in the tech sector, which will help tech exporters. Going forward any recovery will be gradual, with the down draft from weakness in US manufacturing to weigh on the region even amid signs of an improvement in demand from China.”

10:39
USD/CNH could attempt a move to 7.1000 – UOB

In view of FX Strategists at UOB Group, the outlook on USD/CNH stays positive and a test of 7.1000 in the next weeks looks probable.

24-hour view: “We clearly did not expect the sudden and strong rally in USD yesterday. The rapid rise is running ahead of itself and while USD could move above the NY high of 7.0865, a sustained rise above this level appears unlikely. On the other hand, after the strong surge, it is too early to expect a significant pull-back. Overall, USD is likely to trade sideways to slightly higher from here, expected to be between 7.0550 and 7.0900”.

Next 1-3 weeks: “After trading mostly sideways for the past several weeks, USD staged a sudden and outsized rally of +0.32% (7.0652). While the ease by which strong resistance levels were taken out has shifted the risk to the upside, we are not convinced USD can maintain the pace of the current rally. From here, we see chance for USD to test the 7.1000 resistance but the prospect for a sustained rise above the major 7.1200 level is not high. Overall, USD is expected to trade on firm footing unless it drops below the ‘strong support’ level of 7.0400”.

10:19
German engineering orders fall 11% year-on-year in October - VDMA

German engineering orders fell by 11% in October year-on-year as many customers are holding back on investments due to global economic worries, the VDMA industry association said.

"The latest signs of hope for an end to the German industry's economic downturn are not yet having an effect on the order books of mechanical engineering companies," VDMA's chief economist Ralph Wiechers said in a statement.

Domestic orders fell by 13 per cent in October, while demand from abroad fell by 10 per cent. The number of orders from the euro countries was 8 percent lower, while the number from the non-euro countries was 13 percent lower. 

"In many areas of mechanical engineering, we are seeing customers holding back on their investments. The reason for this is continuing uncertainty as to how the global economy will continue in the short and medium term," said Wiechers.

09:59
BoC and US ISM non-manufacturing amongst market movers today – Danske Bank

Danske Bank analysts suggest that today's highlight is US ISM non-manufacturing and the BoC meeting.

“After the weak manufacturing reading on Monday, there is a risk of a small downside to the most recent print. However, we do not have many indicators for ISM non-manufacturing. Bank of Canada is widely expected to leave rates unchanged at today's interim monetary policy meeting. Things are slowly shaping up for an easing of monetary policy and with one full cut priced for 2020, markets will look for confirmation. Markets will also watch out for further tariff and trade indications from Trump and Chinese reactions to the US House legislation passed overnight, sanctioning Chinese officials for human right abuses in Xinjiang.”

09:44
UK services PMI declined moderately in November - IHS Markit/CIPS

November data from IHS Markit/CIPS pointed to a renewed drop in business activity across the UK service sector and, although only marginal, the pace of decline was the fastest for eight months. Subdued demand continued to hold back business activity during the latest survey period, as signalled by the sharpest fall in new work since July 2016. On a more positive note, input cost inflation eased again in November and reached its lowest level for just over three years.

At 49.3 in November, down from 50.0 in October, the seasonally adjusted UK Services PMI Business Activity Index signalled a marginal reduction in service sector output. Economists had expected a fall to 48.6. Although the index was up from the earlier 'flash' reading of 48.6 in November, it still pointed to the steepest decline in business activity since March. Survey respondents noted that domestic political uncertainty once again led to cautious business and consumer spending. Incoming new work decreased for the third consecutive month in November and the rate of contraction accelerated to its sharpest for over three years. Demand from export markets was particularly weak, with the latest drop in new orders from abroad the fastest since this index began in September 2014. 

At 49.3 in November, the seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS UK Composite Output Index was down from 50.0 in October and signalled a marginal reduction in private sector output. The index was up from the earlier 'flash' reading of 48.5 in November, but still the joint-lowest figure since July 2016 (equalling that seen in September).

09:30
United Kingdom: Purchasing Manager Index Services, November 49.3 (forecast 48.6)
09:15
Stagnant new work limits eurozone private sector growth in November - IHS Markit

November’s final IHS Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index continued to signal marginal growth of the euro area’s private sector. Posting 50.6, unchanged on October and slightly better than the earlier flash reading of 50.3, the index remained amongst the lowest levels in the past six-and-a-half years.

The services economy again remained the primary driver of overall growth, despite its positive contribution waning slightly since October. In contrast, manufacturing output fell again, extending the current period of contraction to ten months. However, the drag on overall economic activity from manufacturing continued to ease as goods producers indicated their slowest fall in production since August.

The IHS Markit Eurozone PMI Services Business Activity Index moved slightly lower in November, posting 51.9, compared to 52.2 in the previous month. The latest reading was the second lowest recorded by the survey since January, although all nations covered recorded some expansion of activity. Modest growth of the service sector was underpinned by a similarly muted increase in new business volumes. Gains in new work continued to be undermined by ongoing falls in services exports.

Looking ahead to the coming 12 months, service providers were on balance confident of an increase in activity from present levels. Sentiment was at its highest level since July, though remained well down on the historical series average.

09:00
Eurozone: Services PMI, November 51.9 (forecast 51.5)
08:55
Germany: Services PMI, November 51.7 (forecast 51.3)
08:50
France: Services PMI, November 52.2 (forecast 52.9)
08:38
Italy banking outlook changes to stable from negative as problem loans fall - Moody's

The outlook for Italy's banking system has changed to stable from negative as problem loans will continue to fall, while banks' funding conditions improve and their capital holds steady, Moody's Investors Service said in a report.

"We expect Italian banks' problem loans to fall in 2020 for a fifth consecutive year," said Fabio Iannò, VP-Senior Credit Officer at Moody's. "However, their problem loan ratio of around 8% remains more than double the European Union average of 3%, according to European Banking Authority data. We also take into account our forecast for weak yet positive Italian GDP growth, and our stable outlook on Italy's sovereign rating."

Italian banks are set to have stable or moderately better profitability in 2019 and 2020 thanks to lower wholesale funding costs, lower cost of risk, and efficiency gains from recent restructuring initiatives. Capital ratios look set to remain stable, with almost all lenders reporting comfortable buffers above regulatory requirements.

08:20
BoC is unanimously expected to hold rates – TDS

Analysts at TD Securities note that the Bank of Canada is unanimously expected to hold rates unchanged at 1.75% at the December meeting, leaving the focus on the tone of the statement.

“We don't expect the Bank to say much given substantial uncertainty still clouds their outlook; we expect them to repeat that the outlook is evolving as expected while the last paragraph should maintain a heavy emphasis on data dependence. There will not be an MPR or press conference, although the 10:00 ET policy statement will be followed by an Economic Progress Report on Thursday. At 8:30 we will receive nonfarm productivity for Q3, where consensus looks for another 0.2% q/q increase.”

08:00
ECB study shows people don’t pay much attention to stimulus news

A European Central Bank researcher has an idea why it’s so hard to predict how consumers will react to economic stimulus. He says people aren’t always up to date with the latest news.

In a paper published on Wednesday, economist Jiri Slacalek notes that “many economic models assume that households use all available information in making decisions,” and those assumptions are “too extreme” for some economists. So he makes adjustments.

His tweaked model assumes households update their expectations for inflation and unemployment only occasionally -- surveys show about a quarter of them do so every three months. The results, in his view, generate predictions that better fit the actual data. They also allow him to draw two conclusions.

Firstly, announcing fiscal stimulus -- as countries such as Germany are increasingly being pressured to do -- isn’t enough to persuade people to spend more. They need to see the money.

Likewise, the promise of future monetary stimulus -- a tool known as forward guidance used by major central banks including the ECB -- can be problematic.

In words that highlight the challenge for policy makers, Slacalek says that “when households have sticky expectations, they do not react much to central-bank announcements, thus providing a possible explanation for the limited effectiveness of forward guidance.”

07:40
RBA: 0.25% likely to be the effective lower bound for its cash rate – ANZ

ANZ analysts point out that the RBA views 0.25% as the effective lower bound for its cash rate.

“If the RBA retains its aversion to negative rates, then reducing the cash rate below 0.25% while maintaining the floor of 0% on its rate setting corridor could lead to a counterproductive tightening in monetary conditions, unless it were accompanied by quantitative easing (QE). If the RBA were to adopt QE after the cash rate reaches 0.25%, there could be volatility in how much money banks hold at the RBA. This could see the cash rate fluctuate between 0 and 0.25%. We will focus on the mechanics of how the RBA implements monetary policy and how this could change once 0.25% is reached and QE is implemented.”

07:20
EUR/USD remains bid near term – Commerzbank

According to Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, EUR/USD remains bid near term as the market recently did not close below the 1.0989 mid-November low, and rallied sharply higher.

“Attention has reverted to last week’s high at 1.1097 and this guards the 1.1180 October high and the 1.1249 channel resistance and eventually the 1.1359 200 week ma. This latter level remains the critical break point on the topside from a medium term perspective. Intraday dips are indicated to hold over 1.1050. Failure at 1.0980 targets the 1.0943 78.6% retracement. This is seen as the last defence for the 1.0879 October low and the 1.0814 Fibo retracement, and if seen, we will look for signs of reversal from here.”

07:00
China capex growth hits three-year low

Capital investment by Chinese firms has ground to its slowest pace in three years, as a weakening economy, tight credit and prolonged trade war with the United States dent sales growth and cash reserves.

Companies are also spending more days to turn inventory into sales and eking out smaller profit gains, the analysis showed, in an economy growing at its weakest pace in nearly three decades, with many analysts expecting the slowdown to intensify.

Chinese firms raised capital spending by 1.6% in the three months through September versus the same period a year prior, the weakest growth in three years, showed an analysis of about 2,900 firms with market capitalization above $100 million.

Cash reserves at surveyed firms grew 5.6% on year in the September quarter, the weakest since the first quarter of 2018. Moreover, the average number of days a company holds inventory before sale was 108 in the first nine months of the year, topping an annual average of 100 or less in the last four years.

Revenue grew 6.7%, the weakest in at least three years - the earliest period for which data from a comparable number of firms is available - while net profit rose 7.8% versus nearly 22% two years earlier.

The consumer discretionary and communications services sectors were among the poorest performers, with revenue shrinking 1.4% and growing just 1% respectively.

06:31
Options levels on wednesday, December 4, 2019 EURUSD GBPUSD

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1155 (4784)

$1.1117 (3855)

$1.1097 (2927)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1075

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1042 (3156)

$1.0998 (3687)

$1.0950 (3372)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date December, 6 is 109774 contracts (according to data from December, 3) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1200 (5908);


GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3069 (1563)

$1.3037 (5889)

$1.3017 (1684)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2994

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2891 (1884)

$1.2846 (139)

$1.2799 (2232)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date December, 6 is 32781 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (5889);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date December, 6 is 35099 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2200 (2280);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.07 versus 1.07 from the previous trading day according to data from December, 3

 

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

02:30
Commodities. Daily history for Tuesday, December 3, 2019
Raw materials Closed Change, %
Brent 61.55 0.07
WTI 56.23 0.59
Silver 17.14 1.54
Gold 1477.27 1.03
Palladium 1855.52 0.35
02:01
China: Markit/Caixin Services PMI, November 53.5 (forecast 52.7)
00:46
Australia: Gross Domestic Product (QoQ), Quarter III 0.4% (forecast 0.5%)
00:46
Australia: Gross Domestic Product (YoY), Quarter III 1.7% (forecast 1.7%)
00:30
Stocks. Daily history for Tuesday, December 3, 2019
Index Change, points Closed Change, %
NIKKEI 225 -149.69 23379.81 -0.64
Hang Seng -53.42 26391.3 -0.2
KOSPI -7.85 2084.07 -0.38
ASX 200 -150 6712.3 -2.19
FTSE 100 -127.18 7158.76 -1.75
DAX 24.61 12989.29 0.19
Dow Jones -280.23 27502.81 -1.01
S&P 500 -20.67 3093.2 -0.66
NASDAQ Composite -47.35 8520.64 -0.55
00:15
Currencies. Daily history for Tuesday, December 3, 2019
Pare Closed Change, %
AUDUSD 0.68479 0.44
EURJPY 120.376 -0.28
EURUSD 1.10809 0.03
GBPJPY 141.155 0.12
GBPUSD 1.29921 0.41
NZDUSD 0.65198 0.29
USDCAD 1.32936 -0.1
USDCHF 0.98702 -0.42
USDJPY 108.629 -0.31

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