CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 04-06-2014

Nikkei 15,067.96 +33.71 +0.22%

Hang Seng 23,151.71 -139.33 -0.60%

Shanghai Composite 2,024.83 -13.47 -0.66%

S&P 1,927.88 +3.64 +0.19%

NASDAQ 4,251.64 +17.56 +0.41%

Dow 16,737.53 +15.19 +0.09%

FTSE 1,374.75 -0.03 0.00%

CAC 4,501 -2.69 -0.06%

DAX 9,926.67 +6.93 +0.07%

EUR/USD $1,3599 -0,20%

GBP/USD $1,6735 -0,08%

USD/CHF Chf0,8969 +0,08%

USD/JPY Y102,72 +0,18%

EUR/JPY Y139,69 -0,01%

GBP/JPY Y171,89 +0,11%

AUD/USD $0,9275 +0,11%

NZD/USD $0,8418 -0,17%

USD/CAD C$1,0939 +0,29%

01:30 Australia Trade Balance April 0.73 0.53

01:45 China HSBC Services PMI May 51.4

06:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) April -2.8% +1.3%

06:00 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) April +1.5%

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index May -0.2% +0.4%

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y May +8.5%

09:00 G7 G7 Meetings

09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) April +0.3% +0.1%

09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) April +0.9% +1.3%

11:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50%

11:00 United Kingdom Asset Purchase Facility 375 375

11:00 United Kingdom MPC Rate Statement

11:45 Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.10%

12:30 Eurozone ECB Press Conference

12:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) April -3.0% +1.4%

12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims May 300 314

14:00 Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index May 54.1 58.6

17:30 U.S. FOMC Member Narayana Kocherlakota

23:30 Australia AiG Performance of Construction Index May 45.9

Stock indices traded little changed ahead the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision on Thursday. Investors are awaiting the ECB will cut interest rates and announce measures to boost lending to smaller businesses.

Services PMIs were also in focus in the Eurozone. Eurozone’s services purchase managers’ index (PMI) declined to 53.2 in May from 53.5 in April. Analysts had expected that the index remains unchanged.

Eurozone’s gross domestic product remained unchanged at 0.2% in the first quarter, meeting analysts’ expectation.

Eurozone’s producer price index fell 0.1% in April, after a 0.2% decline in March. This figure was expected by analysts.

German final services PMI declined to 56.0 in May from 56.4 in April. Analysts had expected that the index remains unchanged.

French final services PMI sank to 49.1 in May from 49.2 in April. Analysts had expected that the index remains unchanged.

Indexes on the close:

Name                                   Price                                    Change                 Change %

FTSE 100                             6,818.63                              -17.67                       -0.26%

DAX                                     9,926.67                                +6.93                      +0.07%

CAC 40                                4,501.00                                 -2.69                      -0.06%

The price of oil rose moderately today , which was associated with the release of data on stocks in the U.S. and expectations of tomorrow's ECB meeting

The Energy Information Administration U.S. (EIA) reported that commercial U.S. crude inventories last week fell by 3,431 thousand barrels - up to 389,523 million barrels. Gasoline inventories rose by 210 thousand barrels and reached 211,785 million barrels.

Commercial distillate stocks rose for 2012 thousand barrels , reaching 118,093 million barrels. Experts polled by Bloomberg, expected a decrease of oil reserves by 250 thousand barrels , gasoline inventories increase by 400 thousand barrels and distillate stocks increase by 900 thousand barrels. Oil stocks at Cushing , Oklahoma, fell by 321 thousand barrels - up to 21.37 million barrels. We also learned that the capacity utilization rate rose to refining 90.8% against 89.9 % a week earlier .

Recall that yesterday's data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed :

- Distillate stocks in the U.S. last week -0.3 million barrels

- Gasoline inventories in the U.S. last week 0.8 million barrels

- Crude oil inventories in the U.S. last week -1.4 million barrels

Traders also paid attention to the U.S. data , which showed that the index of business activity in the U.S. service sector in May 2014 rose to 56.3 from 55.2 the previous month . Experts forecast a rise to 55.6 index points. Subindex , which characterizes the level of employment in the U.S. service sector grew in May to 52.4 points from 51.3 points in the previous month. Podyndeks business activity rose to 62.1 points from 60.9 points.

Prices are rising on the news from Libya. Today, the Libyan state news agency Lana reported that many foreign oil companies evacuate staff from the country in connection with the fighting in the city of Benghazi . Aggravation of the situation in the country threatens new oil supply disruptions from it .

"The situation in Libya is out of control in recent weeks, and production of oil fell to their lowest levels ," - said the managing director of Petromatrix GmbH Olivier Jakob .

The cost of the July futures on U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) rose to $ 103.36 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).

July futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mixture rose 29 cents to $ 109.10 a barrel on the London exchange ICE Futures Europe.

The U.S. dollar traded higher against the most major currencies after the strong ISM non-manufacturing index for the U.S. he Institute of Supply Management released its non-manufacturing index today. The index increased to 56.3 in May from 55.2 in April, exceeding expectations for a rise to 55.6.

According to the U.S. ADP employment report, private sector employment increased by 179,000 jobs for May, missing expectations for a gain by 217,000 jobs. April's figure was revised down to an increase of 215,000 from a rise of 220,000.

The U.S. trade deficit increased 6.9% to $47.2 billion in April, from a deficit of 44.18 in March. That was the largest figure since April 2012. March’s figure was revised down to a deficit of $44.18 billion from -40.40 billion U.S. dollar.

The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book later in the day.

The euro traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. Eurozone’s services purchase managers’ index (PMI) declined to 53.2 in May from 53.5 in April. Analysts had expected that the index remains unchanged.

Eurozone’s gross domestic product remained unchanged at 0.2% in the first quarter, meeting analysts’ expectation.

Eurozone’s producer price index fell 0.1% in April, after a 0.2% decline in March. This figure was expected by analysts.

German final services PMI declined to 56.0 in May from 56.4 in April. Analysts had expected that the index remains unchanged.

French final services PMI sank to 49.1 in May from 49.2 in April. Analysts had expected that the index remains unchanged.

Market participants expect the European Central Bank will add further stimulus measures on Thursday. Investors are awaiting the ECB will cut interest rates and announce measures to boost lending to smaller businesses.

The British pound increased against the U.S. dollar due to the better-than-expected services PMI. The U.K. services purchasing managers' index declined to 58.6 in May, from 58.7 in April, but exceeding analysts’ expectations for a decline to 58.3.

The Canadian dollar declined against the U.S. dollar due to the weak Canadian trade balance data and the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision. The Canadian trade deficit was $0.64 billion in April, after a surplus of C$0.77 billion in March. March’s figure was revised down from a surplus of C$0.80 billion. Analysts had expected the trade surplus to fall to C$0.10 billion.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) kept its interest rate unchanged at 1.00%. Monetary policy makers said that there are the risks posed by slow inflation remain. The BoC pointed out that the current monetary policy is appropriate and the timing and direction of the next change to the interest rate will be determined by future economic data.

The New Zealand dollar hits 3-month lows against the U.S dollar following a decline in dairy prices. Dairy product prices dropped 4.2% to the lowest level since February 2013. Whole milk powder prices slid 8.5%, extending their drop since a February 5, 2014 auction to 28%.

No economic data was published in New Zealand.

The Australian dollar climbed against the U.S. dollar due to strong economic growth in Australia, but lost a part of its gains. The Australian gross domestic product rose 1.1% in the first quarter, exceeding expectations of a 0.9% gain, after a 0.8% increase the previous quarter.

On a yearly basis, the gross domestic product in Australia increased 3.5% in the first quarter, after a 2.8% rise the previous quarter.

The AIG services index for Australia climbed to 49.9 in May from 48.6 in April.

The Japanese yen traded mixed against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports in Japan.

Gold prices have not changed today , remained near four-month low , which was associated with the release of U.S. employment data , and caution investors ahead of a meeting of the European Central Bank.

Data presented branch organization ADP Research Institute, showed that the number of jobs in the private sector in the U.S. has increased in May by 179 thousand , while the market was expecting an average increase of 217 thousand

" ADP data were slightly worse than expected , - said the director of investments Greenwood Capital Associates Walter Todd . - But investors are in no hurry to respond and await the decision of the ECB and the official data of Ministry of Labor . "

Also the Labor Department reported that U.S. productivity in the first quarter of 2014 decreased by 3.2 % and labor costs - increased by 5.7%. Analysts on average expected a decrease of 2.2% and an increase of 5.3% , respectively.

In addition, it was reported that the country's trade deficit unexpectedly jumped in May to a maximum of two years , reaching $ 47.2 billion against $ 40.8 billion expectations

The dynamics also affect expectations exit Friday employment report in the U.S., which , according to analysts , will show slowing job growth and rising unemployment in May.

"I think prices will stabilize for a short time in the neighborhood of $ 1245 to a new jump in either direction . Investors await jobs report before opening large positions . If the figures are good , interest in gold fall , because other economic data are also good , and the stock markets are close to record highs , "- said a trader in Hong Kong.

Stocks of the world's largest gold exchange-traded fund secured SPDR Gold Trust on Tuesday increased by 1.8 tons to 787.08 tons , but still close to five-year low , pointing to a weak investment demand .

Demand for physical markets in Asia also dropped because buyers are hoping for further price reductions .

The cost of the June gold futures on the COMEX today dropped to $ 1244.2 per ounce.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) released its interest rate decision on Wednesday. The BoC kept its interest rate unchanged at 1.00%. Monetary policy makers said that there are the risks posed by slow inflation remain.

Total inflation in Canada increased to around 2% target due to the temporary effects of higher energy prices and weaker currency. The core inflation in Canada remains significantly below 2% target.

Canadian and global economy grew slower than expected in the first quarter of 2014. The slower growth was caused by severe weather and supply constraints.

The Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said in a statement on Wednesday the downside risks to the inflation outlook are as important as before.

The BoC pointed out that the current monetary policy is appropriate and the timing and direction of the next change to the interest rate will be determined by future economic data.

The Commerce Department released the trade balance data on Wednesday. The U.S. trade deficit increased 6.9% to $47.2 billion in April, from a deficit of 44.18 in March. That was the largest figure since April 2012. March’s figure was revised down to a deficit of $44.18 billion from -40.40 billion U.S. dollar.

Imports rose 1.2% in April to a record $240.6 billion from $237.8 billion in March. Exports declined 0.2% to $193.3 billion.

The trade gap with the European Union was the largest on record.

The trade gap with China jumped 16.3% to $27.3 billion in April from $20.4 billion in March.

EUR/USD $1.3550, $1.3600, $1.3650, $1.3685, $1.3700

USD/JPY Y102.05/10, Y102.15, Y103.50

USD/CAD Cad1.0925, Cad1.0935/40, Cad1.1000

AUD/USD $0.9200, $0.9300, $0.9325, $0.9340

GBP/USD $1.6830, $1.6910

USD/CHF Chf0.8895, Chf0.9005, Chf0.9025

U.S. stock futures fell after a private report on payrolls showed companies added fewer jobs than forecast in May and as investors awaited a European Central Bank decision on stimulus measures.

Global markets:

Nikkei 15,067.96 +33.71 +0.22%

Hang Seng 23,151.71 -139.33 -0.60%

Shanghai Composite 2,024.83 -13.47 -0.66%

FTSE 6,810.83 -25.47 -0.37%

CAC 4,487.7 -15.99 -0.36%

DAX 9,891.19 -28.55 -0.29%

Crude oil $103.22 (+0.55%)

Gold $1247.20 (+0.22%)

(company / ticker / price / change, % / volume)

The Canadian trade deficit was released on Wednesday. The trade deficit was $0.64 billion in April, after a surplus of C$0.77 billion in March. March’s figure was revised down from a surplus of C$0.80 billion.

Analysts had expected the trade surplus to fall to C$0.10 billion.

That development of trade balance was caused by energy exports drop. Energy exports dropped 11% in April.

Later in the trading session, the Bank of Canada (BoC) will release its interest rate decision. Analysts expect the BoC will keep interest rate unchanged at 1.00%.

The U.S. ADP employment report was released on Wednesday. Private sector employment increased by 179,000 jobs for May, missing expectations for a gain by 217,000 jobs. April's figure was revised down to an increase of 215,000 from a rise of 220,000.

Goods-producing employment climbed by 29,000 jobs in May, up from 21,000 jobs gained in April. Service-providing employment increased by 150,000 jobs in May, down from 194,000 in April.

Economic calendar (GMT0):

01:30    Australia             Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)          Quarter I   +0.8%  +0.9%   +1.1%

01:30    Australia             Gross Domestic Product (YoY)           Quarter I   +2.8%                +3.5%

07:48    France                Services PMI (Finally)                         May            49.2      49.2       49.1

07:53    Germany            Services PMI (Finally)                         May            56.4      56.4       56.0

07:58    Eurozone            Services PMI                                      May            53.5      53.5       53.2

08:30    United Kingdom  Purchasing Manager Index Services   May           58.7      58.3       58.6

09:00    Eurozone            Producer Price Index, MoM                April           -0.2%   -0.1%    -0.1%

09:00    Eurozone            Producer Price Index (YoY)                May          -1.6%   -1.2%    -1.2%

09:00    Eurozone            GDP (QoQ) (Revised)                        Quarter I  +0.2%  +0.2%   +0.2%

09:00    Eurozone            GDP (YoY) (Revised)                         Quarter I  +0.9%  +0.9%   +0.9%

The U.S. dollar traded lower against the most major currencies ahead of the release of several U.S. economic reports.

The euro increased against the U.S. dollar despite the weaker-than-expected economic data in the Eurozone. Eurozone’s services purchase managers’ index (PMI) declined to 53.2 in May from 53.5 in April. Analysts had expected that the index remains unchanged.

Eurozone’s gross domestic product remained unchanged at 0.2% in the first quarter, meeting analysts’ expectation.

Eurozone’s producer price index fell 0.1% in April, after a 0.2% decline in March. This figure was expected by analysts.

German final services PMI declined to 56.0 in May from 56.4 in April. Analysts had expected that the index remains unchanged.

French final services PMI sank to 49.1 in May from 49.2 in April. Analysts had expected that the index remains unchanged.

Market participants expect the European Central Bank will add further stimulus measures on Thursday. Investors are awaiting the ECB will cut interest rates and announce measures to boost lending to smaller businesses.

The British pound rose against the U.S. dollar due to the better-than-expected services PMI. The U.K. services purchasing managers' index declined to 58.6 in May, from 58.7 in April, but exceeding analysts’ expectations for a decline to 58.3.

The Canadian dollar traded higher against the U.S. dollar ahead of the Canadian trade balance data and the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision. The Canadian trade balance deficit should be 0.2 billion CAD, after a surplus of 0.1 billion CAD.

Interest rate in Canada should remain unchanged at 1.00%.

EUR/USD: the currency pair increased to $1.3626

GBP/USD: the currency pair climbed to $1.6766

USD/JPY: the currency pair decreased to Y102.56

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

12:00    G7                 G7 Meetings                                                 

12:15    U.S.               ADP Employment Report                May          220        217       

12:30    Canada         Trade balance, billions                    April            0.1      -0.2      

12:30    U.S.              International Trade, bln                    April         -40.4     -40.8    

12:30    U.S.              Nonfarm Productivity, q/q (Finally)  Quarter I  -1.7%   -2.2%  

14:00    Canada         Bank of Canada Rate                                      1.00%   1.00%  

14:00    Canada         BOC Rate Statement                                                 

14:00    U.S.              ISM Non-Manufacturing                    May          55.2      55.6     

18:00    U.S.              Fed's Beige Book

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3695/700, $1.3688, $1.3670/80, $1.3655, $1.3640

Bids $1.3600, $1.3585/80, $1.3570, $1.3550

GBP/USD

Offers  $1.6835/40, $1.6782

Bids $1.6690

AUD/USD

Offers  $0.9380, $0.9350, $0.9330, $0.9300

Bids  $0.9255/50, $0.9235/30, $0.9210/00

EUR/JPY

Offers Y140.80, Y140.50, Y140.00

Bids  Y139.50, Y139.20, Y139.00, Y138.85/80

USD/JPY

Offers  Y103.50, Y103.00

Bids Y102.55/50, Y102.00, Y101.60

EUR/GBP

Offers  stg0.8195/205, stg0.8160/65

Bids  stg0.8080, stg0.8050

Stock indices decreased due to expectation for further stimulus measures by the European Central Bank and the weaker-than-expected economic data in the Eurozone. Eurozone’s services purchase managers’ index (PMI) declined to 53.2 in May from 53.5 in April. Analysts had expected that the index remains unchanged.

Eurozone’s gross domestic product remained unchanged at 0.2% in the first quarter, meeting analysts’ expectation.

Eurozone’s producer price index fell 0.1% in April, after a 0.2% decline in March. This figure was expected by analysts.

German final services PMI declined to 56.0 in May from 56.4 in April. Analysts had expected that the index remains unchanged.

French final services PMI sank to 49.1 in May from 49.2 in April. Analysts had expected that the index remains unchanged.

Current figures:

Name                                   Price                                    Change                 Change %

FTSE 100                             6,818.40                              -17.90                       -0.26%

DAX                                     9,901.80                               -17.94                      -0.18%

CAC 40                                4,494.94                                 -8.75                      -0.19%

Most Asian stock indices declined. Investors are awaiting the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision on Thursday and the U.S. jobs report on Friday.

The Japanese stock index Nikkei 225 was supported by the weak yen. The U.S. dollar strengthened against yen following overnight gains in U.S. Treasury yields.

Indexes on the close:

Nikkei 225                       15,067.96              +33.71           +0.27%

Hang Seng                      23,151.71             -139.33            -0.60%

Shanghai Composite         2,024.83               -13.47            -0.66%

HTC Corp. shares declined 4.3% after sales in May fell 27% from a year earlier.

EUR/USD $1.3550, $1.3600, $1.3650, $1.3685, $1.3700

USD/JPY Y102.05/10, Y102.15, Y103.50

USD/CAD Cad1.0925, Cad1.0935/40, Cad1.1000

AUD/USD $0.9200, $0.9300, $0.9325, $0.9340

GBP/USD $1.6830, $1.6910

USD/CHF Chf0.8895, Chf0.9005, Chf0.9025

Economic calendar (GMT0):

01:30    Australia             Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)          Quarter I   +0.8%  +0.9%   +1.1%

01:30    Australia             Gross Domestic Product (YoY)           Quarter I   +2.8%                +3.5%

07:48    France                Services PMI (Finally)                         May            49.2      49.2       49.1

07:53    Germany            Services PMI (Finally)                         May            56.4      56.4       56.0

07:58    Eurozone            Services PMI                                      May            53.5      53.5       53.2

08:30    United Kingdom  Purchasing Manager Index Services   May           58.7      58.3       58.6

The U.S. dollar traded higher against the most major currencies due to strong factory orders in the U.S. The U.S. factory orders climbed 0.7% in April, beating expectations for 0.6% increase, after a 1.1% gain in March.

The New Zealand dollar hits 3-month lows against the U.S dollar following a decline in dairy prices. Dairy product prices dropped 4.2% to the lowest level since February 2013. Whole milk powder prices slid 8.5%, extending their drop since a February 5, 2014 auction to 28%.

No economic data was published in New Zealand.

The Australian dollar climbed against the U.S. dollar due to strong economic growth in Australia. The Australian gross domestic product rose 1.1% in the first quarter, exceeding expectations of a 0.9% gain, after a 0.8% increase the previous quarter.

On a yearly basis, the gross domestic product in Australia increased 3.5% in the first quarter, after a 2.8% rise the previous quarter.

The AIG services index for Australia climbed to 49.9 in May from 48.6 in April.

The Japanese yen hits 1-month lows against the U.S. dollar due to overnight gains in U.S. Treasury yields.

EUR/USD: the currency pair declined to $1.3610

GBP/USD: the currency pair decreased to $1.6720

USD/JPY: the currency pair climbed to Y102.80

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

09:00    Eurozone       Producer Price Index, MoM           April        -0.2%   -0.1%   

09:00    Eurozone       Producer Price Index (YoY)          May         -1.6%   -1.2%   

09:00    Eurozone       GDP (QoQ) (Revised)                   Quarter I  +0.2%  +0.2%  

09:00    Eurozone       GDP (YoY) (Revised)                    Quarter I  +0.9%  +0.9%  

12:00    G7                 G7 Meetings                                                  

12:15    U.S.               ADP Employment Report                May          220        217        

12:30    Canada         Trade balance, billions                    April            0.1      -0.2       

12:30    U.S.              International Trade, bln                    April         -40.4     -40.8     

12:30    U.S.              Nonfarm Productivity, q/q (Finally)  Quarter I  -1.7%   -2.2%   

14:00    Canada         Bank of Canada Rate                                      1.00%   1.00%   

14:00    Canada         BOC Rate Statement                                                  

14:00    U.S.              ISM Non-Manufacturing                    May          55.2      55.6      

18:00    U.S.              Fed's Beige Book

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3732 (3983)

$1.3701 (1840)

$1.3658 (351)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.3614

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3572 (3325)

$1.3547 (4514)

$1.3515 (4706)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 6 is 58273 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3850 (6354);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date June, 6 is 76662 contracts, with the maximum number of contractswith strike price $1,3500 (8943);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.32 versus 1.35 from the previous trading day according to data from June, 3.

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.7000 (2741)

$1.6900 (2089)

$1.6802 (1319)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.6722

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.6697 (2601)

$1.6599 (2451)

$1.6500 (979)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 6 is 24585 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7000 (2741);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date June, 6 is 26971 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6700 (2601);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.10 versus 1.10 from the previous trading day according to data from June, 3.

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.