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04.05.2011
18:58
EUR/USD rebounds

EUR/USD holds $1.4856 in thin market. Euro recovered with rebound on metals and stocks and vigil ahead of the ECB meeting is underway, most will await Trichet's customary post meeting press conference for a signal on when rates will be tightened next. Traders expect that it would happen in June while veterans say maybe in July. The technical objective around $1.4940/50.

18:38
Dow -86.09 at 12721.14, Nasdaq -15.45 at 2826.17, S&P -10.14 at 1346.48

Stocks continue to battle back from a rather aggressive sell-off; each of the three major equity averages is now at its best level in more than three hours.
Still, not a single sector has been able to put together any kind of sustainable gain.

18:21
Analysts at BofA and ML says they are maintaining headline nonfarm payroll forecast at +210k.
18:15
Gold retreats

Gold is slipping following the silver's decline to current $39.26/oz. Gold broke under trendline support at $1515 to test a low of $1507.70, before rebounding to current levels of $1511.50/oz. But prices may extend its losses below $1500. Gold bottomed at $1492.50 April 26, before closing at $1500. Gold last closed below $1500 on April 19. Gold refreshed the life-time peak of $1575.79 Monday (+11% y/y).



18:12
Gold retreats

Gold is slipping following the silver's decline to current $39.26/oz. Gold broke under trendline support at $1515 to test a low of $1507.70, before rebounding to current levels of $1511.50/oz. But prices may extend its losses below $1500. Gold bottomed at $1492.50 April 26, before closing at $1500. Gold last closed below $1500 on April 19. Gold refreshed the life-time peak of $1575.79 Monday (+11% y/y).


17:51
EUR/USD recovers

EUR/USD extended losses to $1.4824 lows as earlier reported bids around $1.4850 are filled. Further bids mentioned ahead of $1.4800 with stops lower. rate currently holds above the lows - at $1.4860.

17:36
USD/JPY retreats a bit

USD/JPY printed lows around Y80.41 before recovered a bit. Bids were earlier mentioned at lows with stops under Y80.50. Rate currently holds around Y80.52.

17:21
Dow -124.54 at 12683.28, Nasdaq -28.41 at 2813.21, S&P -14.00 at 1342.62

Unable to make any kind of meaningful upward move, stocks have fallen to a new session low.
For the first time in about a month, share volume has been robust. Trading has been aggressively to the downside so that declining share volume outnumbers advancing volume by more than 3-to-1.

17:08
US focus: Euro reaches 17-month high on ECB

The euro reached its highest level in 17 months against the dollar on speculation European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet will signal further rate increases after policy makers meet tomorrow.
The market “expects that the ECB is on a tightening path,” said Jessica Hoversen, an analyst at MF Global Holdings Ltd.
The ECB raised its benchmark interest rate to 1.25% on April 7 from a record low 1%%. Some economists expect it to signal tomorrow another boost will come as soon as June.

The U.S. dollar fell versus the euro on weaker-than-forecast economic data and speculation the Federal Reserve will maintain economic stimulus.
The Institute for Supply Management’s index of non-manufacturing companies fell to 52.8 in April, the lowest since August. It was 57.3 in March, and economists forecasted a reading of 57.5.
ADP Employer Services data showed employment at U.S. companies increased by 179,000 jobs in April, compared with a revised 207,000 in March. The median estimate called for a 198,000 advance this month.
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said last week after a policy meeting he was unsure when the U.S. central bank’s monetary stimulus will unwind. The benchmark U.S. rate has been zero to 0.25% since December 2008 to support the economy. The Fed’s program to spur growth by purchasing $600 billion in Treasuries will end in June, as planned, policy makers decided.
The Canadian dollar fell for a third day against its U.S. counterpart, the longest losing streak since March, as crude oil dropped. The commodity is Canada’s biggest export.
The pound touched its lowest level in more than a year against the euro after reports showed U.K. house prices fell and construction growth slowed, discouraging the Bank of England from boosting borrowing costs tomorrow.

16:47
USD/JPY challenges lows

USD/JPY revisiting morning lows near Y80.50, intenting to probe bids in the Y80.45/50 area. Stop interest below that level, risk to open up Y80.00 area. Ahead of that, Y80.25 may offer support from the top of the Ichimoku cloud.

15:15
Brent retreats

ICE Brent holds down $1.27 at $121.18 per barrel, after trading in a $120.88 to $123.06 range. For Brent, the $119/$120 zone will be key, with the front contract bottoming at $119.03 April 19 before bouncing higher, and the prior 2011 peak from February 24 coming in at $119.79.
Barclays Capital says as long as support at $119 holds, "the overall focus is higher through $127 toward our initial $130 target."

14:56
EUR/USD under $1.4900

EUR/USD breaks back under $1.4900 to trade currently at $1.4873 as Bund yields slip  and as weak euro longs throw in the towel on positions accumulated above $1.4900. Area of $1.4880 earlier suggested as support, and below here $1.4850 expected to hold bids.


14:31
US: Apr 29 wk EIA oil data: crude stocks +3.421m bbl to 366.5m bbl.
14:26
Dow -31.71 at 12775.80, Nasdaq +1.28 at 2843.65, S&P -3.84 at 1352.87

Energy stocks are under stiff pressure for the third straight session. On Monday the energy sector slid 1.3%, yesterday it dove 2.4%, and today it is down another 1.3%. National Oilwell Varco (NOV 70.33, -2.05), Cameron International (CAM 49.01, 1.78), and Hess Corp (HES 77.63, -2.20) are in some of the worst shape this morning. Diamond Offshore Drilling (DO 70.85, -0.27) and Rowan (RDC 38.57, -0.14) have managed to limit losses, though.

14:01
US: Apr nonmfg ISM 52.8 vs 57.3 Mar.
13:59
Orders desk:

EUR/USD
Offers: $1.4880, $1.4890/905, $1.4930/35, $1.4950, $1.5000
Bids: $1.4850, $1.4830, $1.4800, $1.4775/70, $1.4755/50


GBP/USD
Offers:$1.6550, $1.6580, $1.6600/20
Bids: $1.6500, $1.6480, $1.6455/50, $1.6435/30, $1.6400


USD/JPY
Offers: Y81.25/30, Y81.65/70, Y81.85
Bids: Y80.70, Y80.45/50, Y80.00

13:55
JPM says they are sticking to their call for April payrolls report to show +180k.
13:47
Before the bell:

U.S. stock futures were headed for a modest retreat at Wednesday's open, following a report showing weaker-than-expected job growth in April.
Before the opening bell, ADP said the private sector created 179,000 jobs last month, down from 207,000 in the previous month. That was less than the 200,000 jobs analysts had been expecting.
On Tuesday, U.S. stocks struggled for a second session as disappointing corporate earnings, and a steep drop in the price of oil, weighed on the broader market.
Economy: In addition to ADP's report on job creation, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas issued a report showing employers announced fewer planned job cuts in April, even as government sector layoffs mounted.
Wednesday's reports on the job market set the stage for Friday's widely anticipated government jobs report.
Economists surveyed by CNNMoney expect the unemployment rate to hold steady at 8.8% while employers added 185,000 jobs in April. For the full year, economists expect 2.3 million new jobs - just under 200,000 per month - and an unemployment rate of 8.4% by year end.
Companies: Investors will also get results from News Corp (NWS, Fortune 500)., Prudential Financial (PRU, Fortune 500), WholeFoods (WFMI, Fortune 500), MetLife (MET, Fortune 500), and video game publisher Electronic Arts (ERTS, Fortune 500).
Shares of Varian Semiconductor (VSEA) surged more than 50% on news thatApplied Materials (AMAT, Fortune 500) will buy the chipmaker in a $5 billion cash deal.
Gold futures for June delivery fell $3.40 to $1,537.00 an ounce.
Silver futures for July delivery shed 87 cents to $41.72, after sinking more than 7% in the previous session.
Bonds: Bond prices were little changed. The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury edged slightly lower, pushing the yield up to 3.26%

12:50
EUR/USD break above $1.4900

The pare posted high at $1.4913, matching Monday's high. Corrective pullbacks remain shallow and seen keeping upside in focus. Stops noted above $1.4915, a break and clear to open a move toward $1.4930/35. Option barrier noted at $1.4950.

12:34
FX: Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.4850, $1.4800, $1.4675, $1.4650, $1.4640, $1.4600
USD/JPY Y82.50
GBP/USD $1.6670
USD/CHF Chf0.8700
AUD/USD $1.0900, $1.0820, $1.0630

12:16
US ADP LOOKS FOR +179,000 FOR APRIL PRIVATE PAYROLLS
12:13
European session:

The euro rose against the dollar, approaching its strongest in 18 months, on speculation that European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet will signal further rate increases after policy makers meet tomorrow.
The 17-member common currency strengthened against all but one of its most actively traded peers as a report showed European services and manufacturing growth accelerated in April.
New Zealand’s dollar dropped to a two-week low after a government report showed the nation had the biggest net outflow of residents in more than 10 years. The pound slumped to the weakest in more than a year against the euro.
“The ECB has nailed its anti-inflation colors firmly to the mast and the Fed hasn’t even got around to starting yet,” said Steven Barrow, a currency strategist at Standard Bank Plc in London. “This euro rally won’t extend too far if the ECB isn’t as hawkish as the market expects.”
The yield on 10-year German bunds climbed above the U.S. equivalent yesterday for the first time since June 2009 as data showed producer-price inflation in the euro region unexpectedly accelerated to the fastest pace in 2 1/2 years in March, boosting the case for tighter monetary policy.
A composite index of European services and manufacturing rose to 57.8, from 57.6 in March, led by factory output, indicating the economy is weathering higher oil prices. A separate report showed Spain’s registered unemployment declined for the first time this year.
French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said a strong euro benefits the region’s companies and signaled that inflation is a greater concern than growth in the region, saying there’s no need for further stimulus, and warning that consumer-price increases are accelerating “a little bit.”
The pound slid to the lowest in more than a year against the euro after reports showed U.K. house prices fell and construction growth slowed, limiting the case for interest-rate increases from the Bank of England ahead of tomorrow’s decision.

11:33
US: Challenger reports 36,490 planned layoffs in April, down from the 41,528 reported in March and from 38,326 in April 2010.
11:00
European shares slightly lower on Wednesday

European shares were slightly lower on Wednesday after hitting one-week lows as a decline in metals prices on uncertainty about global raw material demand hurt mining stocks, although retailers supported the market.

10:24
USD/JPY posted new session high

Edges to a day's high of Y81.18 on euro-yen strength, but encountering headwinds in generally uninspired dollar-yen trade. The downside looking well supported at Y80.80 with continued talk of semi-official demand sitting beneath at Y80.70. Offers remain Y81.10/15 and Y81.25/30, looking likely to contain any further advances in the near term.

10:03
USD/CHF remains above Chf0.8600

Currently remains buoyed above Chf0.8600, with traders noting Swiss names with demand interest at Chf0.8600, more below Tuesday's posted life lows at Chf0.8595 at Chf0.8590. Stops seen in place below, a break to open a deeper move toward Chf0.8570.

09:24
FTSE -0.17% 6,073, CAC +0.39% 6,073, DAX +0.41% 7,532
09:14
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.4850, $1.4800, $1.4675, $1.4650, $1.4640, $1.4600
USD/JPY Y82.50
GBP/USD $1.6670
USD/CHF Chf0.8700
AUD/USD $1.0900, $1.0820, $1.0630

09:00
EMU DATA: Retail sales surprised to the downside in March, falling 1.0% on the month to give an annual decline of 1.7%
08:48
Asian session: The yen and the dollar strengthened

Data:
01:00  Australia HIA New Home Sales, m/m     Mar +4.3%

The yen and the dollar strengthened against most major counterparts on speculation China will introduce additional tightening measures to combat inflation, boosting demand for safer assets.
The Japanese and U.S. currencies also advanced for a second day versus the euro as Asian stocks and commodity prices declined.
New Zealand’s dollar dropped to a two-week low after a government report showed the nation had the biggest net outflow of residents in more than 10 years.
China’s central bank said in a report yesterday that taming inflation is its highest priority, signaling more tightening is possible even after a manufacturing survey showed growth may be moderating in Asia’s biggest economy.

EUR/USD: the pair shown low in the field of $1.4770 then returned above a mark $1.4800.


GBP/USD: the pair shown low in the field of $1.6460 then returned above a mark $1.6500.


USD/JPY: the pair bargained within the limits of Y80.80-Y81.20.

US data starts at 1215GMT with the April ADP National Employment Report, which is followed at 1300GMT by the US Treasury quarterly refunding announcement and then at 1400GMT by the ISM non-manufacturing index, which is expected to fall to a reading of 57.0 in April after the decline in March. The weekly EIA Crude Oil Stocks data then follows at 1430GMT.

08:36
UK Mar Net Consumer Credit stg0.108 bln
08:32
Forex: Tuesday's review

The yen and the Swiss franc rose against all of their most-traded counterparts as investors sought the currencies’ relative safety amid declines in equities and commodities.
The dollar erased gains against the euro as stocks trimmed losses after a report showed U.S. factory orders rose more than forecast. Canada’s dollar fluctuated after rising earlier as Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservatives won a majority of seats in Parliament for the first time.
The dollar earlier strengthened from a 16-month low against the euro on speculation the European currency’s gains this year may not be sustained.
Orders placed with U.S. factories rose 3 percent in March, a fifth consecutive increase, the Commerce Department said today. The median forecast of economists projected a 2 percent increase.
The pound was the worst performer among major currencies, dropping as an index of U.K. manufacturing growth declined. Markit Economics and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply index fell to 54.6 in April from 56.7 in March.
Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said high debt levels pose “massive” economic challenges that would be exacerbated by increased long-term interest rates.
Bank of England policy makers are split four ways over monetary policy. The central bank probably will leave the key interest rate at a record-low 0.5 percent at the next rate meeting on May 5.

EUR/USD: positions of pair on results of yesterday's session practically haven't changed. The pair the beginning also finished session in around $1.4830.
GBP/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair decreased below a mark $1.6500.
USD/JPY: the pair decreased in around Y80.90.

US data starts at 1215GMT with the April ADP National Employment Report, which is followed at 1300GMT by the US Treasury quarterly refunding announcement and then at 1400GMT by the ISM non-manufacturing index, which is expected to fall to a reading of 57.0 in April after the decline in March. The weekly EIA Crude Oil Stocks data then follows at 1430GMT.



08:14
Stocks: Tuesday's review

Japanese markets were closed for holidays

European stocks declined, snapping the Stoxx Europe 600 Index’s longest winning streak in 10 months, as energy companies fell with oil and automakers slid after a report stoked speculation Germany may raise company-car taxes.
BG Group Plc (BG/) led a selloff in oil and gas companies. Volkswagen AG (VOW) paced a gauge of auto companies lower, dropping 1.7 percent in Frankfurt. BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) and Antofagasta Plc (ANTO) fell more than 1.5 percent. Hannover Re slid 1 percent after the world’s third-biggest reinsurer cut its profit forecast
An index of oil and gas companies in the Stoxx 600 fell the most in three weeks as crude slid for a second day in New York. BG Group declined 1.9 percent to 1,504 pence. Dragon Oil Plc (DGO) sank 4.3 percent to 6 euros in Dublin and Petroleum Geo-Services ASA (PGS) retreated 4.1 percent to 79.40 kroner.
A gauge of auto-industry shares dropped for the first time in nine days after a report commissioned by the German environment ministry said the government should change the way it taxes company cars.
Bayerische Motoren Werke AG, which is scheduled to report earnings tomorrow, declined 1.7 percent to 63.37 euros and Daimler AG slid 1.6 percent to 51.65 euros.
Fiat SpA (F) retreated 2.1 percent to 7.33 euros as Italian car sales fell 2.2 percent last month. Sales of the company’s namesake brand dropped 15 percent, according to the Italian Transport Ministry.

U.S. stocks fell, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lower for a second straight day, as declines in oil and gold prices drove commodity producers down and Sears Holdings Corp. (SHLD) led a retreat in retailers.
Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM) and ConocoPhillips paced losses in metal and energy companies. Sears, the largest U.S. department- store chain, tumbled 9.7 percent after forecasting a first- quarter loss. Pfizer Inc. (PFE) slid 3.3 percent as sales of its Lipitor cholesterol pill, the world’s best-selling drug last year, missed estimates. MasterCard Inc. (MA) rallied 2.8 percent after earnings topped analysts’ estimates.
The S&P 500 has risen 8.2 percent this year through yesterday. Earnings-per-share beat estimates at about three- quarters of the 336 companies in the S&P 500 that reported results since April 11
Stocks fell even after orders placed with U.S. factories rose 3 percent in March on increasing demand for machinery and computers, topping the median economist estimate.


07:58
EUROZONE: Apr svcs PMI 56.7
07:54
GERMANY: Apr svcs PMI 56.8
07:52
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3: Y82.30 (Apr 28 high)
Resistance 2: Y81.70 (May 2 high, МА (200) for Н1)
Resistance 1:Y81.20 (session high)
Current price: Y80.95
Support 1:Y80.70 (around of Mar 18-24 and May 3 low)
Support 2:Y79.80 (Mar 17 high)
Support 3:Y79.00 (Mar 18 low)  
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of the reached low. The nearest support - Y80.70. Below losses are possible to Y79.80. The nearest resistance - Y81.20. Above growth is possible to Y81.70. 

07:31
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.8740 (МА (200) for Н1)
Resistance 2: Chf0.8690 (resistance line from Apr 6)
Resistance 1: Chf0.8650 (session high)
Current price: Chf0.8622
Support 1: Chf0.8590 (May 3 low)
Support 2: Chf0.8500 (psychological mark)
Support 3: Chf0.8400 (psychological mark)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of the reached low. The nearest resistance - Chf0.8650. Above is located Chf0.8690. The nearest support - Chf0,8590. Below loss may extend to Chf0.8500.

06:54
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 1: $ 1.6660 (May 3 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.6550 (May 3 intraday high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6500 (around of session high)
Current price: $1.6462
Support 1 : $1.6450 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.6430 (Apr 26-27 low)
Support 3 : $1.6380 (Apr 21 low)
Comments: the pair is under pressure. The nearest support $1.6450. Below is possible testings of around $1.6430. The nearest resistance - around $1.6500. Above growth is possible to $1.6550. 

06:24
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.5140 (Nov-Dec'2009 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.5000 (psychological mark)
Resistance 1: $ 1.4900 (May 2 high)
Current price: $1.4805
Support 1 : $1.4760 (Apr 28 low, May 2-3 low, session low)
Support 2 : $1.4630 (Apr 27 low)
Support 3 : $1.4490 (Apr 26 low)
Comments:
The pair pair bargains in former frameworks. The nearest support $1,4760. Below losses are possible to $1.4630. The nearest resistance - $1.4900. Above growth is possible to $1,5000.

06:00
UK Apr House Prices -0.2% m/m; -1.3% y/y
05:37
Schedule for today, Wednesday, May 04 2011:

06:00     UK     Nationwide house price index (April)         0.2%    0.5%
06:00     UK     Nationwide house price index (April) Y/Y         -0.7%    0.1%
07:55     Germany     PMI services (April) seasonally adjusted         57.7    60.1
08:00     EU(17)     PMI services (April)         56.9    57.2
08:30     UK     Consumer credit (March), bln          0.7    0.8
09:00     EU(17)     Retail sales (March) adjusted         0.3%    -0.1%
09:00     EU(17)     Retail sales (March) adjusted Y/Y          -    0.1%
12:15     USA     ADP employment (April)         +200K    +201K
14:00     USA     ISM Non-mfg PMI (April)         58.0    57.3

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