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04.03.2011
19:30
Oil prices remain elevaited

WTI crude holds at $103.91/barrel down from the new 29-month high of $104.32 posted earlier, which took out last week's high at $103.41.
Brent stands at $116.00/barrel, down from an earlier high of $116.49, which was still well below the 30- month high of $119.79, posted Feb 24.

19:06
Dow -158.71 at 12099.49, Nasdaq -26.22 at 2772.52, S&P -16.46 at 1314.51

Stocks are threatening to break down and drop another level as they test the bottom of their recent trading range. Weakness this session has left 90% of the names in the S&P 500 to trade with losses.
Airline stocks are among the hardest hit. They surged 2.4% in the prior session as oil prices ran into selling pressure, but oil's 2.0% spike this session has sent the Amex Airline Index to a 2.1% loss. Also sensitive to higher oil prices, the Dow Jones Transportation Index has fallen to a 1.5% loss.

18:27
ECB, Trichet: we are going to ensure price stability.
18:11
Dow -164.50 at 12093.70, Nasdaq -27.71 at 2771.03, S&P -16.72 at 1314.25

Steady selling pressure has taken the stock market to a new session low. The downturn has not yet undone the prior session's surge, though.
Although weakness is widespread, financials (-1.6%) are driving the downturn.
Precious metals remain strong as some seek their safety. Gold continues to trade with a 1% gain at $1431 per ounce and silver continues to trade with a 2.7% gain at $35.23 per ounce.

17:49
Fitch Ratings revised Spain's outlook to negative from stable and affirmed its Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings at AA+.
17:46
American focus:

The dollar fell to the lowest level in almost four months versus the euro as investors speculated a gain in U.S. payrolls last month won’t be enough to spur the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates soon as the European Central Bank prepared to lift its borrowing costs.
The dollar briefly gained versus the euro after Labor Department data showed U.S. employers added 192,000 workers in February and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 8.9 percent, the lowest level since April 2009.
“The unemployment number was by no means a blowout number that’s going to make the Fed consider tightening anytime soon,” said Boris Schlossberg, director of research at online currency trader GFT Forex in New York. “That leaves the ECB way out front in terms of interest rate differential goes.”
The dollar tumbled yesterday after ECB President Jean- Claude Trichet said the ECB may increase interest rates at its next meeting to counter inflation pressures.
Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi sent troops to recapture towns in the western part of the country and prepared to quash protests in the capital, Tripoli. Crude oil for April delivery rose as much as 2.1 percent to $104.09, the highest since September 2008.
The Swiss franc rose against all of its 16 major counterparts as investors sought refuge amid a jump in crude oil to a 29-month high on concern turmoil in North Africa and the Mideast will disrupt supplies.

16:59
JPM on US data

JPM says of the +3.1% Jan factory orders that transport components looked strong and price increases boosted nondurables and inventory values. They est core durable capital goods shipments were -6.2%, still very weak.

15:34
Dow -7.83 at 12250.37, Nasdaq -3.26 at 2795.48, S&P -1.92 at 1329.05

Factory orders for January increased by 3.1%, which is greater than the 2.1% increase that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. Orders for the prior month were revised upward to reflect an increase of 1.4%.
There hasn't been any real reaction to those numbers. Instead, the stock market continues to chop along listlessly with narrow losses.
Advancing Sectors: Telecom (+0.4%), Health Care (+0.1%), Energy (+0.1%)Unchanged: Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary
Declining Sectors: Industrials (-0.6%), Financial (-0.5%), Utilities (-0.2%), Materials (-0.1%), Tech (-0.1%).

15:02
CANADA: Feb Ivey purchasing mgrs index 69.3; Jan 41.4
15:01
US: Jan factory new orders +3.1%
14:43
Option expiries for today's 15:00GMT cut:


EUR/USD $1.3800, $1.3825, $1.3850, $1.3900, $1.3915, $1.3975, $1.3985, $1.4000
USD/JPY Y81.00, Y82.50, Y82.75, Y83.00, Y83.50
EUR/JPY Y113.60, Y112.00
GBP/USD $1.6300, $1.6075
USD/CHF Chf0.9350
AUD/USD $1.0070, $1.0100, $1.0170, $1.0200
AUD/JPY Y84.40
EUR/AUD A$1.3800

14:28
Before the bell: Stocks headed for post-rally hangover

U.S. stock futures were flat Friday, heading for a lackluster open, as investors mulled over the government's monthly payrolls report.

Economy: The economy added 192,000 jobs in the month - roughly in line with expectations, as the unemployment rate ticked down to 8.9%.
The economists were predicting that the economy had added 190,000 jobs in February.
Economists also expected the unemployment rate to rise to 9.2%.

A report on factory orders is due after the opening bell.
Companies: Family Dollar (FDO, Fortune 500) rose about 4% over reports that it rejected a takeover offer from investor Nelson Peltz.
Commodities: Oil prices rose back near the top of a recent range, hitting a high near $103 a barrel in early trading.


14:03
EUR/JPY hits Y116.00 on the NFP initial reaction, before retreating to Y115.30. Later rate recovered to Y115.60.
13:48
Reaction on news:

Dollar draggs down after Payrolls come near as expected, curbing demand for safe-heaven. EUR/USD challenged $1.4000 and currently holds around $1.3986. Options at $1.4000 with stops above $1.4010. Offers around $1.4020/25.


13:33
US: Feb Unemploy rate 8.9%
13:32
US: Feb payrolls +192k
13:23
Before Nonfarm Payrolls EUR/USD at $1.3956, GBP/USD at $1.6268 and USD/JPY at Y82.77.
13:13
At 13:30 GMT Nonfarm Payrolls is due to come.

The nonfarm payrolls released by the US Department of Labor is one of the most important data. The report presents the number of people on the payrolls of all non-agricultural businesses.
Analysts expect the report to show a rise of 185,000, following a tepid 36,000 increase previously.

13:03
EU JUNCKER: Need more economic coordination in EMU
  • Confident that EMU debt solution deal will be reached
  • No comment on Thursday's ECB announcements

 

13:03
EU JUNCKER: Need more economic coordination in EMU
  • Confident that EMU debt solution deal will be reached
  • No comment on Thursday's ECB announcements

 

12:58
EU session review: Dollar reaches 4-month low before U.S. jobs data release

Data released
08:00     UK     Halifax house price index (February)    -0.9%    -0.6%    0.8%
08:00     UK     Halifax house price index (February) 3m Y/Y    -2.8%    -2.5%    -2.4%

The dollar fell to its weakest level in four months against the euro as stock markets rose before a report that may show U.S. employers added the most jobs since May, curbing demand for the currency as a haven.
The euro headed for a third straight weekly increase against the greenback, the longest run of gains since October, after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said yesterday the ECB may increase interest rates at its next meeting.
The euro has jumped 1.3% since Feb. 25 against a basket of developed nations’ currencies as investors increased wagers the ECB would raise it key rate, which is already 0.75% higher than the upper end of the Federal Reserve target range.
An “increase of interest rates in the next meeting is possible,” Trichet said yesterday. Trichet and board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi are among the ECB policy makers scheduled to speak in Paris and Cape Town today.
“It’s absolutely clear that the ECB will raise rates in April, with some now expecting 75 basis points worth of hikes this year,” said Yuji Saito at Credit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank. “The euro will likely strengthen further, initially targeting $1.4080,” the Nov. 8 high, he said.
Sterling declined against the dollar after house prices fell in February, fueling concern that the economic recovery won’t be sustained.
U.K. house prices fell 0.9% from January, when they rose 0.8%. Britain’s economy shrank 0.6% in the fourth quarter.

EUR/USD holds within the $1.3950/80 range.

GBP/USD initially fell to session lows around $1.6232 before it recovered to $1.6306. Rate failed to hold above and was back under Y1.6300.

USD/JPY rose from Y82.30 to current Y82.75.


U.S. nonfarm payrolls report is due to come at 13:30 GMT. Analysts expect the report to show a rise of 185,000, following a tepid 36,000 increase previously.

12:15
CRUDE TECHS:

Oil rises, heading towards the recent high set on Feb 24 (now initial resistance) at $103.41, despite overbought daily studies. Further resistance seen as the daily Bollinger band top at $105.55. Initial support seen as the 5-DMA and the Mar 1 high at $100.65/69 with further support seen as the 23.6% Fibonacci of $83.85/103.41 at $98.79.

11:09
EU focus: Euro hits fresh 4-month high vs dollar

The euro rose to a fresh 4-month high against the dollar on Friday on expectations the European Central Bank may raise rates next month following comments by ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet the previous day.
"The market was unprepared for Trichet to lay the foundation for an April rate hike," said David Watt, strategist at RBC Dominion Securities.
Comments by ECB official Nout Wellink added to this view on Friday, when he was quoted in DNB magazine saying the central bank should raise rates sooner or later.

"We think the euro will remain strong in the next week or two, possibly even testing...highs of $1.4280," said Christopher Gothard, head of FX for Brown Brothers Harriman, referring to the euro's next major peak on charts, its early November high of $1.4283.
"Trichet's comments have bolstered rate hike expectations, and even though we're not certain the scenario of an April hike will play out - Europe still has the fiscal debt issues and poor growth in many areas - for the moment it's providing support," Gothard added.
In a sign of its broad strength in the wake of Trichet's comments, the euro hit a 10-month high against the New Zealand dollar of NZ$1.8935 on Friday and touched a five-week high versus the Australian dollar near A$1.3800 .
The dollar's near-term direction hinges on U.S. non-farm payrolls data due later on Friday. Analysts expect the report to show a rise of 185,000, following a tepid 36,000 increase previously.
"That will be good for the dollar and especially dollar/yen. Markets are currently priced for no rate hikes in the U.S. until 2013. I think that (rate) call will start coming back in and that will be positive for the dollar," a trader at a U.S. investment bank said.
A disappointing number, however, could fan worries about the outlook for the U.S. labour market, especially given uncertainty about how the recent surge in oil prices may affect the U.S. economy and companies, Robert Ryan, FX strategist at BNP Paribas. "If we get something below 125,000 or 120,000 I think there will be an enormous amount of disappointment," Ryan said. "We could very quickly start talking about QE3 as a realistic prospect," he said, referring to the issue of whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will take further quantitative easing measures after its $600 billion bond-buying programme is over.

10:57
GBP/USD probes offers
UK clearer' demand supports GBP/USD right now, lifting it from earlier pullback lows at $1.6235 to highs above $1.6260. Rate currently trades around $1.6264. Resistance seen up at $1.6278 (76.4% $1.6291/35), a break to allow for a retest on earlier highs at $1.6291, with offers seen from here, extending toward $1.6300.
10:38
USD/JPY holds higher

USD/JPY remains higher after it passed the Asian highs of Y82.46 and offers at Y82.50 to a high of Y82.62. Rate currently holds around Y82.52. Resistance is seen at Y82.72 ahead of further stops reportedly at Y83.00.

10:19
FTSE +37.18 +0.62% 6,042.27, CAC +23.46 +0.58% 4,084.22, Dax +61.68 +0.85% 7,287.64
09:50
Option expiries for today's 15:00GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.3800, $1.3825, $1.3850, $1.3900, $1.3915, $1.3975, $1.3985, $1.4000
USD/JPY Y81.00, Y82.50, Y82.75, Y83.00, Y83.50
EUR/JPY Y113.60, Y112.00
GBP/USD $1.6300, $1.6075
USD/CHF Chf0.9350
AUD/USD $1.0070, $1.0100, $1.0170, $1.0200
AUD/JPY Y84.40
EUR/AUD A$1.3800

09:40
Asian session: The dollar headed

The dollar headed for its first weekly gain versus the yen in three weeks before data forecast to show U.S. employers added the most jobs since May, providing evidence the world’s largest economy is gaining momentum.
The greenback strengthened for a fourth day against New Zealand’s dollar before a report economists say will show U.S. factory orders increased for a third month. 
The yen rose versus the euro on speculation that Japan’s exporters bought the currency after it touched a four-month low. 
Australia’s dollar fell to the lowest in five weeks against the euro on prospects the European Central Bank will raise interest rates faster than the Reserve Bank of Australia.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 196,000 in February, according to a survey of economists before today’s Labor Department report. The jobless rate may rise to 9.1 percent from 9 percent in January, a separate survey showed.

EUR/USD: the pair bargained in the field of the reached high.
GBP/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1,6260-$ 1,6290.
USD/JPY: the pair bargained within the limits of Y82,30-Y82,50.

The main event for Friday is of course, the US labor market data at 1330GMT, when non-farm payrolls are expected to rise 200,000 in February following the very modest 36,000 gain in January. Private payrolls are seen up 190,000. The unemployment rate is forecast to rise to 9.1% after two straight 0.4 point drops in December and January. Hourly earnings are expected to post a 0.2% rise following the 0.4% January gain, while the average workweek is forecast to rise to 34.3 hours in February. Also  from the US, at 1500GMT, factory new orders are expected to jump 2.0% in January, as durable goods orders were already reported up 2.7%. 
Also at  1500GMT, the Canadian Ivey Purchasing Managers Index for February is due. 

09:23
FOREX: Thursday's review

The euro climbed to almost four- month highs versus the dollar and yen after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the ECB may raise interest rates next month to counter accelerating inflation.
“Strong vigilance is warranted,” Trichet told reporters in Frankfurt after the central bank left its main refinancing rate at 1 percent. 
An “increase of interest rates in the next meeting is possible,” Trichet said, adding that any increase would not necessarily be the start of a “series” of moves. 
Rising oil prices, which surged over $100 a barrel last week, and faster economic growth are fanning inflation which has already breached the ECB’s 2 percent limit for three straight months. At the same time, officials must weigh any rate increase against the risk it will exacerbate Europe’s sovereign debt crisis by tightening policy too soon.
The dollar slumped versus the euro even after a report showed initial jobless claims in the U.S. unexpectedly declined last week to the lowest level since May 2008.
Applications for unemployment benefits decreased by 20,000 to 368,000 in the week ended Feb. 26, Labor Department figures showed. Economists forecast claims would climb to 395,000. The total number of people receiving unemployment insurance fell to the lowest level since October 2008. 

EUR/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair  become stronger in around $1,3970.
GBP/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair  decreased in around $1,6270.
USD/JPY: on results of yesterday's session the pair become stronger in around Y82,40.

The main event for Friday is of course, the US labor market data at 1330GMT, when non-farm payrolls are expected to rise 200,000 in February following the very modest 36,000 gain in January. Private payrolls are seen up 190,000. The unemployment rate is forecast to rise to 9.1% after two straight 0.4 point drops in December and January. Hourly earnings are expected to post a 0.2% rise following the 0.4% January gain, while the average workweek is forecast to rise to 34.3 hours in February. Also  from the US, at 1500GMT, factory new orders are expected to jump 2.0% in January, as durable goods orders were already reported up 2.7%. 
Also at  1500GMT, the Canadian Ivey Purchasing Managers Index for February is due. 

08:05
Stocks: Thursday's review

Japanese stocks rose as signs of a strengthening U.S. job market overshadowed concern political unrest in the Middle East and North Africa will drive energy costs higher.
Shares extended gains after a report that Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez called Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi and offered to help broker peace.
Bridgestone Corp., the world’s largest tiremaker, climbed 2.2 percent.
Fanuc Corp., an industrial-robot manufacturer that gets almost 80 percent of its sales overseas, increased 1.2 percent.
TDK Corp., the world’s No. 1 maker of disk drive heads, gained 0.9 percent to 5,460 yen.
Advantest Corp., the No. 1 maker of chip-testing equipment, gained 1.5 percent after JPMorgan Chase & Co. raised its recommendation on the semiconductor industry.
Okuma Corp. (6103), a manufacturer of machine tools, jumped 6.3 percent after Nomura Holdings Inc. rated it a “buy.”
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. leapt 5.4 percent to 372 yen, the most since December 2009, after the heavy machinery maker and Itochu Corp., a trading company, received an order to supply train cars and equipment for a transit project in Macau.
Softbank Corp., Japan’s third-biggest wireless carrier, rallied 4.8 percent to 3,410 yen and was the largest single contributor to gains in the Nikkei and the Topix. Mizuho Securities Co. reiterated its “outperform” rating on the shares, saying the carrier isn’t likely to increase its stake in Yahoo Japan Corp. Softbank declined as much as 4.6 percent yesterday after Reuters said Yahoo! Inc. of the U.S. may sell its 35 percent stake in Yahoo Japan.
Nippon Telegraph & Telephone Corp., Japan’s biggest telecommunications company, climbed 1.5 percent to 4,130 yen, the highest close since September 2009. JPMorgan reiterated its “overweight” rating on the company, citing the company’s forecast for higher profits this year.

European stocks rose as better-than- estimated earnings from Anheuser-Busch InBev NV (ABI) to Adecco SA (ADEN) outweighed European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet’s suggestions that the ECB may boost interest rates next month.
AB InBev, the brewer of Stella Artois and Bud Light, and Adecco, the world’s largest supplier of temporary workers, advanced more than 2 percent.
British Sky Broadcasting Group Plc (BSY) gained 3 percent after News Corp. won approval to take full control of the company.
Rival U.K. media companies declined. Daily Mail and General Trust Plc, the publisher of the Daily Mail newspaper, slid 3.1 percent to 540 pence, the biggest drop since November. Broadcaster ITV Plc (ITV) fell 3.1 percent to 90.55 pence. Trinity Mirror Plc (TNI), which publishes the Daily Mirror, sank 22 percent to 66 pence even after full-year operating profit rose 17 percent.
Alcatel-Lucent led technology shares higher, surging 6.4 percent to 3.83 euros. There is speculation that an Chinese firm may make a bid for France’s largest telecommunications equipment maker, according to Jean-Michel Salvador, an analyst at AlphaValue in Paris. Alcatel spokeswoman Alix Cavallari declined to comment.
Ericsson AB, the world’s biggest maker of wireless phone networks, rallied 3.5 percent to 81.3 kronor after UBS AG upgraded its recommendation on the shares to “buy” from “neutral.”
Banco Santander SA (SAN) led banks lower as Trichet said “strong vigilance is warranted” and an “increase of interest rates in the next meeting is possible.”

U.S. stocks posted their best day in three months on Thursday as Wall Street rallied behind a strong unemployment claims report along with a modest drop in energy prices.
At the preliminary close, the Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 191 points, or 1.6%, to 12,258. The gains were the best for the blue-chip indicator in 2011 and the largest since Dec. 1.
Thursday's rally was fairly broadbased and held steady the entire day. Twenty of the Dow's 30 members advanced more than 1%, while the worst-performing member of the Dow was AT&T (T, Fortune 500), falling a modest 0.1%.
Economy: The Labor Department reported that weekly jobless claims totaled 368,000 in the week ended Feb. 26 -- the lowest weekly figure since May 31, 2008.
Analysts surveyed  expected the number of people filing for unemployment benefits to rise to 400,000, up from the revised tally of 388,000 the previous week.
The report came a day before the big labor report, the monthly employment figures from the government. Economists surveyed by CNNMoney expect that 192,000 jobs were created in February, with the unemployment rate rising to 9.1% from 9% in January.
The Institute for Supply Management's service industries index was also a positive force for the markets, rising to a stronger-than-expected reading of 59.7 for February. Economists had been looking for a reading of 59. Any reading above 50 signals expansion in the sector.
Companies: Valero Energy (VLO, Fortune 500) was the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 on Thursday, jumping 7.7%, after the oil refining company said it expects to post adjusted earnings between 76 cents and 91 cents a share, well ahead of the 48 cents a share analysts had forecast.
Shares of Big Lots (BIG, Fortune 500) rose 4% after the company reported a 15% increase in earnings to $1.46 a share. Analysts were looking for $1.38 a share.





07:44
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9440 (38.2 % FIBO Chf0.9775-Chf0.9230)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9390 (Feb 23 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9330 (Mar 3 high, session high)
Current price: Chf0.9317
Support 1: Chf0.9230 (Mar 3 low)
Support 2: Chf0.9200 (Mar 2 low)
Support 3: Chf0.9100 (psychological mark)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of the high reached yesterday. The nearest support - Chf0.9230. Below loss may extend to Chf0.9200. The nearest resistance - Chf0.9330. Above is located Chf0.9390. 

07:42
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6450 (high of Jan 2010)
Resistance 2: $ 1.6340 (Mar 2 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6290 (session high)
Current price: $1.6270
Support 1 : $1.6250 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.6210 (Mar 2 low)
Support 3 : $1.6160 (Feb 25 high)
Comments: the pair bargains in a narrow range. The nearest support $1.6250. Below is possible testings of around $1.6210. The nearest resistance $1.6290. Above growth is possible  to $1.6340. 

07:39
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.4285 (high of Nov)
Resistance 2: $ 1.4080 (Nov 8 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.3980 (Nov 9 and Mar 3 high)
Current price: $1.3960
Support 1 : $1.3950 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.3890 (Mar 2 high)
Support 3 : $1.3830 (Mar 3 low)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of the high reached yesterday. The nearest support $1,3950. Below losses are possible to $1.3890. The nearest resistance $1.3980. Above growth is possible  to $1,4080.

07:32
Schedule for today, Friday, Mar 4 2011:

13:30 USA  Nonfarm payrolls (February) +190K +36K
13:30 USA Unemployment rate (February) 9.1% 9.0%
13:30 USA Average hourly earnings (February) 0.2% 0.4%
13:30 USA Average workweek (February) 34.3 34.2
15:00 USA Factory orders (January) 2.5% 0.2%

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