CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 04-02-2011

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04.02.2011
19:43
Dow +10.25 at 12072.51, Nasdaq +12.83 at 2766.71, S&P +1.37 at 1308.47
The stock market continues to chop along with a narrow gain. Action has been both listless and lackluster all session long. Market participants have been unmotivated by the January jobs report, which featured smaller-than-expected growth in both nonfarm and private payrolls. The headline unemployment number tumbled unexpectedly to 9.0% from 9.4%.
19:16
JPM on Payrolls

From JPM: "January employment report did little to shed any light on the true state of the labor market." JPM sees general softness and weather effects in the report.

18:48
Dow +5.86 at 12068.12, Nasdaq +13.50 at 2767.38, S&P +1.09 at 1307.92

Some buying interest has begun to surface in the broader market. That has the S&P 500 at its highest level in about three hours. As for the Nasdaq, it has climbed to a session high, where it sports a solid gain. The Nasdaq continues to be helped by tech stocks (+0.6%), namely semiconductor issues (+1.8%).

18:22
US focus: Dollar advances as Jobless rate falls even as winter storms cap payrolls

The dollar advanced for a third day against the euro and yen in the longest stretch of gains in four weeks after the U.S. jobless rate fell to the lowest level since April 2009 even as winter storms limited gains in payrolls.
“As the focus shifted to the unemployment rate instead of the headline nonfarm payrolls, we saw euro-dollar breaking lower,” said Mary Nicola, a currency strategist at BNP Paribas SA.
U.S. unemployment unexpectedly dropped to 9% last month from 9.4% in December, the Labor Department said today. Employers added 36,000 workers, the smallest gain in four months, after a 121,000 rise that was larger than initially reported.

Canada’s currency touched a two-year high versus the dollar as the nation’s employment rose more than four times economists’ forecasts.
Statistics Canada reported that employment rose by 69,200, compared with the median forecast of 15,000 in a survey of economists. The jobless rate rose to 7.8% from 7.6%. Full-time employment rose by 31,100 in January, and part-time jobs increased by 38,000.
The Canadian employment report restores the nation’s status as having regained all the jobs lost in the recession. A Jan. 28 revision based on updated census data reduced Statistics Canada’s estimate of total employment.
The euro was poised for a weekly decrease of 0.1% versus the dollar as European Union leaders met in Brussels to try to narrow differences on ending the region’s debt crisis.
Germany and France are at odds over possible bond buybacks and a “competitiveness pact,” which is German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s condition for strengthening the safety net for debt-strapped countries.
The euro fell 1.3% yesterday, the most since November, as European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said inflation has been prompted “mainly” by rising energy and commodity costs, dimming prospects for a boost in the target lending rate from a record low 1%.
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said yesterday that the U.S. needs to see faster job growth for a sufficient time before policy makers can be assured the economic recovery has taken hold.

18:06
Techs on USD/JPY

Resistance 3:Y84.50
Resistance 2:Y83.70
Resistance 1:Y83.00
Current price: Y82.39
Support 1:Y82.00           

Support 2:Y81.30          

Support 3:Y80.90          
Comments: Rate rises, heading for a channel line from Jan 07 coming today at Y83.00. Break above will target Y83.70 (Jan 07 high). Further resistance comes at Y84.50 (Dec 15 high). Support is around Y82.00, then - at Y81.30 (Feb 01 low). Stronger support comes at Y80.90 (Dec 31 and Jan 03 low).


17:49
Techs on USD/CHF
Resistance 3: Chf0.9780                
Resistance 2: Chf0.9680                
Resistance 1: Chf0.9590                
Current price: Chf0.9571
Support 1: Chf0.9460                
Support 2: Chf0.9400
Support 3: Chf0.9330                  

Comments: Rate broke above the upper bound of the channel from Jun 01 at Chf0.9550 (support now) and printed high on Chf0.9590 (38.2% Fibo of Chf1.0070 - Chf0.9300 decline). Stronger resistance comes at Chf0.9680 (50%) and Chf0.9780 (Jan 11 high). Minor support is near Chf0.9460, below - at Chf0.9390/00 (Feb 03 hourly lows), then - at Chf0.9330 (Feb 02 low).

17:29
Techs on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $1.6450          
Resistance 2:$1.6275/00  
Resistance 1:$1.6150          
Current price: $1.6086
Support 1: $1.6030          

Support 2: $1.5980

Support 3: $1.5920          

Comments: Rate tries to recover with resistance is around $1.6150 (hourly highs). Above there is a room for a rise up to $1.6275/00 (Nov 04 and Feb 03 highs). Above resistance is near $1.6450 (Jan 19'2010 high). Support comes at session low on $1.6030. Break under widen losses to $1.5980 and then - to $1.5920 (38.2% Fibo of $1.5340-$1.6280 move).

17:05
Techs on EUR/USD
Resistance 3:$1.3800
Resistance 2:$1.3680
Resistance 1:$1.3600             
Current price: $1.3575
Support 1: $1.3540

Support 2:$1.3480              
Support 3:$1.3360

Comments: After yesterday's break under the challen line from Jan 10 at $1.3740, euro remained under pressure. Support is around session lows on $1.3540, then - at - $1.3480 (38.2% Fibo of $1.2870-$1.3860 move). Stronger support is near $1.3360 (50%). Resistance comes at $1.3600, then - on $1.3680 (daily high). Above resistance is around $1.3800 (broken channel line).

 

16:44
EUR/USD recovers

EUR/USD tries to recover after weakened to fresh lows around $1.3545.  Dollar gaining lift from US yields. Area below $1.3540 said to hold a few stops but bids seen into the 100d ma around $1.3525, stops on a break.

16:00
Dow +9.84 at 12072.10, Nasdaq +7.22 at 2761.10, S&P +1.21 at 1308.31

    The dollar index is trading near session highs, but this is only weighing on select commodities as half of the commodities in the CRB Commodity Index are higher. Most commodity segments are mixed this morning such as soft, energy, industrial, grains and livestock.


Sugar futures are leading the CRB Index this morning with almost 3% in gains after plunging over 10% during yesterday's trading session. It closed about 9.3% lower. Volatility in sugar over the last few days initially stemmed from Cyclone Yasi near Australia, which threatened the country's sugar crop. In current trade, sugar is up 2.4% at 32.82 cents/lb.

Energy markets are mixed with crude in positive territory and RBOB gasoline, heating oil and natural gas lower. March crude oil moved into positive territory over four hours ago and hit session highs of $91.67 per barrel just after pit trading began. Crude is currently up 0.8% at $91.24 per barrel.

March natural gas pulled back around the top of the hour, falling back in to negative territory. It's now back near session lows of $4.29 per MMBtu, currently at $4.32 per MMBtu, down 0.3%.

Precious metals are trading higher this morning with silver the second best performer in the CRB Index. April gold began to move higher when pit trade opened and pushed into positive territory. It hit new session highs of $1358.50 per ounce and is now 0.3% higher at $1358.00 per ounce. March silver is up 1.8% at $29.25 per ounce.


15:53
US DATA REACT: Pierpont Securities says there was "a ton of noise" in Jan employment data, but "on the payroll side, the signs all point to a big weather impact."
They say "assuming the climate is near normal during the February survey week, we should be expecting a powerful bounceback."
15:29
Dow +4.47 at 12067.22, Nasdaq +5.96 at 2760.84, S&P +0.19 at 1307.21

    Stocks have recovered from an early slip. The S&P 500 and the Dow are now flat, but the Nasdaq is actually up to a modest gain. The Nasdaq is currently led by large-cap tech issues like Apple (AAPL 346.25, +2.84) and Research In Motion (RIMM 64.28, +1.61).


With stocks catching a bid, Treasuries have extended their recent slide. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Note is now to a multi-month high above 3.60%.

Advancing Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (+0.6%), Tech (+0.3%), Industrials (+0.2%), Materials (+0.1%), Consumer Staples (+0.1%)
Unchanged: Energy, Health Care
Declining Sectors: Utilities (-0.7%), Telecom (-0.4%), Financial (-0.4%)

15:03
CANADA DATA: Ivey PM Index 41.4 in Jan vs 50 Dec.
14:24
US DATA REACT: Analsyt Tony Crescenzi at PIMCO says dipping unemployment rate "is a repeat from a month ago with new data; unemployment rate now 9.0%." Declining unemploy rate will boost confidence in the recovery and promote spending.
14:02
Before the bell: U.S. stocks were headed for a flat open, as investors brace for the government's closely watched monthly jobs report, due before the opening bell.

Dow Jones industrial average (INDU), S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq (COMP) futures were little changed ahead of the market open. Futures measure current index values against perceived future performance.


Stocks ended higher Thursday, as investors digested comments about the economy from Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke -- who said a weak job market continues to weigh on the recovery.

While investors will be eyeing Friday's employment report closely for signs of improvement in the labor market, they remain confident in the overall economic recovery, said David Jones, chief market strategist at IG Markets.

"Earnings have been pretty good, the U.S. GDP was overshadowed by Egypt but that was good too, and overall the economic recovery in the U.S. still seems to be fairly stable and steady, so I expect to see more strength," said Jones. "Even when we see weakness like at the end of last week and early this week, we still see people happy to step in and buy."

According to economists surveyed by CNNMoney, employers are expected to have added 149,000 jobs in January, after adding 103,000 jobs in December.

Despite the gains, the unemployment rate is expected to tick back up to 9.5%, as some of the unemployed return to the labor force to search for jobs. The unemployment rate dropped to 9.4% in December.

Jones said that given the disappointing jobs reports from the last couple of months, investors are looking for any indication of a brightening employment picture -- so stocks are likely to gain if the numbers are in line with expectations.

Companies: Shares of JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) slipped 1.2% after allegations late Thursday that the investment bank was warned about Bernard Madoff's Ponzi scheme years prior to its collapse, but did nothing to stop it.

Shares of JDS Uniphase Corp. (JDSU) surged 18% in pre-market trading, after the communications equipment maker logged quarterly earnings after the market close Thursday that widely beat expectations.

Early Friday, Aetna (AET, Fortune 500) also reported stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings and boosted its dividend, sending shares of the company 8% higher.

After the market close Thursday, Las Vegas Sands (LVS, Fortune 500) posted disappointing earnings, sending shares of the casino company 6% lower in pre-market trading Friday. Other casino stocks, including Wynn Resorts (WYNN) and MGM Resorts International (MGM, Fortune 500), shared the pain. Shares of Wynn tumbled 8%, while MGM shares slumped more than 2%.

13:36
US DATA: Jan employ report probably shows some weather effects with payrolls just +36k

 

Jan employ report probably shows some weather effects with payrolls just +36k (after +40k up-rev in Dec-Nov) and benchmark -483k for Dec'10. Civ unemploy rate -0.4 pt to 9.0% as unemployed -622k but labor force -504k and participation -0.1pt to 64.2%; this suggests discouragement rather than massive improvement. NSA data showed 4.9m people forced to work part-time due to bad weather and another 886k with a job but not at work due to weather - not unusually high for a Jan. PvtAHE +10c to +2.3% YOY, & hours slipped, with divergence due to weather vs annual pay adjs. Jan payrolls: Mfg +49k, constructn -32k, retail +27.5k, finance -10k, govt -14k (most ex ed), temp -11.4k, health +12.9k
Details: Payrolls/Prior    AHE,yoy  Agg Hrs   Civ Unempl Rt/Unrnd 
Jan         +36k   ----     +2.3%     99.3        9.0%  (9.0498%)
Dec        +103k   +121k    -----     99.6r       9.4%  (9.4248%)
Nov         +71k    +93k    -----     99.5r       9.8%  (9.7701%)

 

13:22
US DATA/OPINION: Currency strategists at UBS acknowledge risks to the US payrolls data and thus to the dollar.

They say; "Wintry weather has resulted in unusually choppy data in January and we expect the weather to also affect the January payrolls. Our US economists forecast a +80k rise in headline payrolls, well below the consensus of +143k. If payrolls do disappoint expect some dollar downside."


13:05
European session: market awaits US jobs data

The dollar held onto two days of gains versus the euro before a government report that economists said will show U.S. employers added the most jobs in three months in January.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls probably increased by 146,000 in January after climbing by 103,000 the previous month, as jobless rate rose to 9.5% from 9.4$, survey showed.
The Institute for Supply Management’s index of U.S. non- manufacturing businesses released yesterday showed service industries expanded in January at the fastest pace since August 2005, indicating the economic recovery is broadening.
“The U.S. economy is picking up and starting to show some pretty consistent signs of recovery, which could spill over to jobs,” said Greg Gibbs, a currency strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in Sydney. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke “boils it all down to employment, so a strong employment report would be quite important for the dollar.”
The euro headed for a weekly loss against most of its major counterparts as European Union leaders prepared to meet today in Brussels to discuss the region’s debt crisis and traders cut bets on the outlook for interest-rate increases.
The euro headed for a second weekly decline versus the yen before EU leaders meet today to try to narrow differences on a strategy to end the region’s financial crisis. Germany on Feb. 2 ruled out allowing the region’s bailout facility to fund bond buybacks from debt-strapped governments.
“The euro is a sell on the rally at this stage,” said Alex Sinton, a senior dealer in Auckland at ANZ National Bank Ltd. “The market’s got to be wary overall because the economic and debt situation behind the euro is still poor.”
European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said yesterday that inflation risks are “broadly balanced,” dimming the prospect of an increase in rates. Australia’s currency strengthened to a one-month high versus the greenback after the central bank lifted its growth and inflation forecasts in a quarterly report today.

EUR/USD:
traded within $1.3615-$1.3640 range.

GBP/USD: traded within $1.6120-$1.6170, range before eased support seen $1.6080/85.
USD/JPY: remained within Y81.50-Y81.70.


The main event comes with the US labor market data at 1330GMT. Non-farm payrolls are expected to increase by 136,000 in January following the 103,000 gain in December, with annual revisions due with this month's data. Private payrolls are seen up 165,000, while the unemployment rate is forecast to increase to 9.5% after the 0.4 point drop in December to 9.4%. Hourly earnings are expected to post a 0.2% increase, while the average workweek is forecast to remain unchanged at 34.3 hours in January.

12:46
ECB NOWOTNY: Austrian National Bank estimate +1.8% 2012 EMU HICP
12:02
CANADA: Jan employment +69.2k vs revised +30.4k in Dec

Jan unemployment 7.8% (Dec 7.6%)

11:33
ECB Gonzalez-Paramo:monitoring very closely to avoid second-round effects
  • see s-t infl pressure, but infl expectations anchored;
  • no comment on mkt expectations; always follow mandate;
  • rate decision, overall assessment unanimous;
  • 'we don't even tie ourselves to the fcast of our staff';
  • if tax hikes one-off, should pose no inflation problem;
  • indirect taxes,admin prices also infl risks;we're watching;
  • monitor closely banks persistently bidding for ECB liq.;
  • inflation is never good,even in peripherals w/high debt.
10:39
GBP/USD under pressure

Edging lower through the $1.6122 low of yesterday with sales from a major NY bank leading the pair to a low on the day of $1.6110. Further hourly support seen towards $1.6080/85 and $1.6035/40.

10:11
Options expiries for the 1500GMT cut:
USD/JPY: Y80.00, Y81.20, Y81.35, Y82.00, Y82.35. 
EUR/USD $1.3450, $1.3500, $1.3550, $1.3630, $1.3675, $1.3700, $1.3750, $$1.3800, $1.3850, $1.3900 
GBP/USD $1.5900, $1.5950, $1.6100, $1.6200, $1.6285, 
AUD/USD $1.0055, $1.0100, $1.0150, $1.0200  
GBP/JPY Y134.00
EUR/AUD A$1.3650  
AUD/JPY Y82.50 
AUD/NZD NZ$1.3500
EUR/CHF Chf1.2500
USD/CHF Chf0.9200
09:41
GERMAN MERKEL: Will discuss euro during lunch
  • Will discuss stronger economic coordination.
09:40
GERMAN MERKEL: Will discuss euro during lunch
  • Will discuss stronger economic coordination.
09:35
UK: Halifax expect rates to stay very low for some time
  • Halifax says low rates support affordability for borrowers;
  • Halifax expects limited movement in UK house prices this year;
  • Any house price movement risk on the downside;
  • Consumer confidence down as result econ nervousness;
  • Poor weather likely a hit to Dec mortgage approvals
09:29
UK: Halifax expect rates to stay very low for some time
  • Halifax says low rates support affordability for borrowers;
  • Halifax expects limited movement in UK house prices this year;
  • Any house price movement risk on the downside;
  • Consumer confidence down as result econ nervousness;
  • Poor weather likely a hit to Dec mortgage approvals
09:00
Halifax UK January house prices 0.8% m/m; -2.4% 3m y/y.
08:54
Asian session: Australia’s currency rose

The dollar held onto two days of gains versus the euro before a U.S. government report that economists said will show employers added the most jobs in three months in January.
The euro headed for a weekly loss against most of its major counterparts as European Union leaders prepared to meet today to discuss the region’s debt crisis and traders cut bets on the outlook for interest-rate increases. 
Australia’s currency rose to a one-month high after the central bank lifted its growth and inflation forecasts in a quarterly report today.

EUR/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1.3615-$ 1.3640.
 
GBP/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1,6120-$ 1,6170.
USD/JPY: the pair bargained within the limits of Y81,50-Y81,70.

The main event comes with the US labor market data at 1330GMT. Non-farm payrolls are expected to increase by 136,000 in January following the 103,000 gain in December, with annual revisions due with this month's data. Private payrolls are seen up 165,000, while the unemployment rate is forecast to increase to 9.5% after the 0.4 point drop in December to 9.4%. Hourly earnings are expected to post a 0.2% increase, while the average workweek is forecast to remain unchanged at 34.3 hours in January. Later data, at 2000GMT sees Treasury STRIPS data for January.

08:45
Stocks: Thursda's review

Japanese stocks fell for the first time in three days as opposing groups clashed in Egypt and some company earnings missed expectations.
Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s largest carmaker, fell 1.2 percent. Chiyoda Corp., a plant engineering company that gets almost half of its income from the Middle East, lost 0.5 percent. Panasonic Corp., the world’s largest maker of plasma televisions, sank 3.2 percent after the company reported profit that missed analysts’ estimates. Ricoh Co., a maker of office equipment, plunged 9.9 percent after JPMorgan Chase & Co. cut its investment rating.
European shares ended flat on Thursday, after weak results from heavyweights Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L) and Santander (SAN.MC) were offset by data showing the U.S. economic recovery was gathering pace.
A less hawkish European Central Bank tone on interest rates had combined with falling U.S. weekly jobless figures to turn the index flat in early afternoon trade, before the release of bullish U.S. service sector data.
Leading the earnings news was oil major Royal Dutch Shell, which fell 2.2 percent after its fourth-quarter profit lagged expectations, and banking group Santander, down 1.7 percent, hit by Spanish property price falls. 
U.S. stocks erased losses as gains in consumer and telephone stocks helped the market recover from an early slump.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 0.2 percent to 1,306.00 at 2:59 p.m. in New York after slumping as much as 0.7 percent earlier. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 12.38 points, or 0.1 percent, to 12,054.35.
Earlier declines came as a stronger dollar weighed on commodity producers and Merck & Co. led losses in drugmakers after its profit forecast trailed estimates.
The Dow average closed above 12,000 for the first time since June 2008 this week after U.S. and Chinese manufacturing expanded and United Parcel Service Inc. beat analysts’ earnings estimates. About 74 percent of the 266 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported results since Jan. 10 topped earnings-per- share projections

08:19
Tech on USD/JPY

 

Resistance 3:Y83,00 (resistance line from Jan 7)
Resistance 2:Y82,00 (МА (200) for Н1)
Resistance 1:Y81,85 (resistance line from Jan 27)
Current price: Y81.64
Support 1:Y81.45 (support line from Feb 1)
Support 2:Y81.30 (Feb 1 low)
Support 3:Y80.90 (Dec 31 - on Jan 3 low)
 
Comments: the pair bargains in a narrow range. The nearest resistance - Y81,85. Above growth possible to Y82.00. The nearest support - Y81,45. Below losses are possible to Y81.30.

 

08:15
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9620 (Jan 24 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9520 (Feb 3 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9480 (session high)
Current price: Chf0.9467
Support 1: Chf0.9430 (МА (200) for Н1)
Support 2: Chf0.9390 (Feb 3 low)
Support 3: Chf0.9330 (Feb 2 low)
Comments: the pair becomes stronger. The nearest resistance Chf0,9480. Above is located Chf0.9520. The nearest support Chf0,9430. Below lossmay extend to Chf0.9390. 

07:56
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6450 (Jan 19, 2010 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.6275/00 (Nov 4 and Feb 3 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6150 (session high)
Current price: $1.6136
Support 1 : $1.6120 (session low, Feb 3 low)
Support 2 : $1.6000 (МА (200) for Н1)
Support 3 : $1.5920 (38.2 % FIBO $1,5340-$ 1,6280)
 
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of the low reached yesterday. The nearest support - $1,6120. Below decrease is possible to $1.6000. The nearest resistance - $1,6000. Above growth is possible to $1,6275/00.

07:47
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.3860 (Feb 2 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.3825 (Feb 3 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.3700 (МА (200) for Н1)
Current price: $1.3634
Support 1 : $1.3600 (Feb 3 low)
Resistance 2: $ 1.3570 (Jan 31 low)
Resistance 3: $ 1.3480 (38,2 % FIBO $1.2870-$ 1.3860)
Comments: the pair bargains in reached yesterday low. The nearest support - $1,3600. Below decrease is possible to $1.3570. The nearest resistance - $1,3700. Above growth is possible  to $1,3825. 

07:31
Schedule for today, Friday, Feb 04 2011:

12:00 Canada  Employment (January) +15.0 +22.0
12:00 Canada Unemployment rate (January) 7.6% 7.6%
13:30 USA Nonfarm payrolls (January) +135K +103K
13:30 USA Unemployment rate (January) 9.5% 9.4%
13:30 USA Average hourly earnings (January) 0.2% 0.1%
13:30 USA Average workweek (January) - 34.3

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