CFD Markets Analysis: News and forecasts for 3 September 2024

23:53

AUD/USD posts modest gains above 0.6700 ahead of Australian GDP data AUDUSD

AUD/USD trades with mild gains around 0.6715 in Wednesday’s early Asian session.
Australian Services PMI rose to 52.5 in August vs. 52.2 prior, better than estimated.
Traders raised their bets on a more aggressive rate cut after the weaker US Manufacturing PMI data.

The AUD/USD pair gains traction near 0.6715 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The upbeat Australian August Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) provides some support to the Australian Dollar (AUD). However, traders will take more cues from Australia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter, which is due Wednesday.

Data released by the Judo Bank and S&P Global on Wednesday showed that the country’s Services PMI came in stronger than expected, rising to 52.5 in August from 52.2 in July. Meanwhile, the Composite PMI improved to 51.7 in August, better than the estimation and the previous reading of 51.4.

Investors will closely watch the Australian GDP growth number, which is expected to grow 0.3% QoQ in the second quarter (Q2) of the year and 1% in the twelve months to June. The stronger-than-estimated GDP could boost the Aussie, while the weaker reading could trigger speculation the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut interest rates and might weigh on the AUD.

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI registered the lowest reading since November. The figure rose to 47.2 in August from 46.8 in July, but below the market consensus of 47.5. The weaker reading raised the probability the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut the interest rate by at least a quarter percentage point later this month.

Traders raised the chance of a more aggressive half-point reduction to 39%, up from 31% before the US ISM Manufacturing PMI report, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch measure. The US ISM Services PMI will be released on Thursday, which is projected to ease to 51.4 in August from 51.1 in July. On Friday, the attention will shift to the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for August.

Australian Dollar FAQs

What key factors drive the Australian Dollar?

One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.

How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar?

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.

How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar?

China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.

How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar?

Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar?

The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

23:20

EUR/USD continues to find a technical foothold, but downside pressure is mounting EURUSD

EUR/USD managed to keep a hold of 1.1050 on Tuesday, but action is tilted downside.
US PMI figures that flubbed forecasts stoked a fresh bid into the Greenback.
US NFP labor numbers due this week will be a guiding print for Fed rate cut depth.

EUR/USD tilted further into the low side on Tuesday, with intraday bottom bids testing into two-week lows before settling the day near 1.1050 once again. Price action remains limited as markets gear up for one last US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) print this week, but a flop in US ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures reignited fears of an impending recession.

Forex Today: The prospects of a US soft landing remain challenged by data

Meaningful European data remains limited in the front half of the trading week, and Thursday will see Fiber traders with their hands full thanks to an update to pan-European Retail Sales in July followed by US preview labor figures before Friday’s NFP jobs dump.

Pan-EU Retail Sales for the year ended in July are expected to recovery slightly, forecast to print at 0.1% YoY compared to the previous period’s -0.3% decline. European Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures are also slated for Friday, and growth is broadly expected to hold steady at previous figures in the second quarter.

ISM’s US Manufacturing PMI for August came in below expectations, printing at 47.2 and missing the median market forecast of 47.5. Despite a soft rebound from July’s multi-month low of 46.8 failed to galvanize markets, giving already flighty investors a perfect excuse to pull back from a recent lopsided tilt into bullish expectations.

Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report looms large. It represents the last round of key US labor data before the Federal Reserve (Fed) delivers its latest rate call on September 18. Friday's NFP print is widely expected to set the tone for market expectations regarding the depth of a Fed rate cut, with investors fully priced in on the start of a new rate-cutting cycle this month.

EUR/USD price forecast

Fiber has slumped back into near-term technical barriers, but bidders continue to come out of the woodwork in an effort to keep bids on-balance even if they can’t quite pull out a bullish recovery.. EUR/USD popped into a 13-month high just above 1.1200 early last week, and a near-term pullback in Greenback flows sees bids scrambling to hold onto bullish chart paper.

The pair is still trading well north of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0845. Despite holding deep in the bull country, EUR/USD is still facing a steepening bearish pullback as shorts congregate targets just above the 50-day EMA at 1.0956.

EUR/USD daily chart

Euro FAQs

What is the Euro?

The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro?

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro?

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

How does economic data influence the value of the Euro?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro?

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

23:19

USD/CAD weakens below 1.3550, eyes on BoC rate decision USDCAD

USD/CAD edges lower to near 1.3545 in Wednesday’s early Asian session.
US ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 47.2 in August vs. 46.8 prior, missing the estimation.
The BoC is likely to cut rate at its September meeting on Wednesday.

The USD/CAD pair trades on a weaker note around 1.3545 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The weaker-than-expected US ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) drags the Greenback lower. The Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate decision will be the highlight later on Wednesday, with a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut expected.

The business activity in the US manufacturing sector continued to contract, albeit at a softer pace in August. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose from an eight-month low in July at 46.8 to 47.2 in August. This figure was below the market consensus of 47.5 and register the lowest reading since November.

The cautious mood ahead of the highly-anticipated US August Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday might provide some support to the US Dollar (USD) and cap the pair’s downside. This event will be closely watched as it might offer some hints about how much the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates. Financial markets have priced in around a 62% chance of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut by the Fed in September, while the odds of a 50 bps reduction stand at 38%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

On the Loonie front, the BoC is widely expected to deliver a third consecutive interest rate cut on Wednesday amid easing inflationary pressure in the Canadian economy. Investors see the Canadian central bank to lower its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point to 4.25% followed by several more reductions over this year and 2025. “The Bank of Canada is likely to interpret (last week’s GDP) data as supportive of maintaining its easing bias, with three more quarter-point cuts expected by year-end.” noted Maria Solovieva, TD.

Meanwhile, the further decline in crude oil prices continues to undermine the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD). It's worth noting that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the United States (US), and lower crude oil prices tend to have a negative impact on the CAD value.

Canadian Dollar FAQs

What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar?

The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.

How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar?

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.

How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar?

The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar?

While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.

How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar?

Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

23:09

Australia's Judo Bank Services PMI rises to 52.5 in August vs. 52.2 expected

The final reading of Australia's Judo Bank Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 52.5 in August from 52.2 in the previous reading. This figure was above the market consensus of 52.2, the latest data published by Judo Bank and S&P Global showed on Wednesday.

The Composite PMI climbed to 51.7 in August versus 51.4 prior.

Market reaction

At the press time, the AUD/USD pair was up 0.01% on the day to trade at 0.6712.

Australian Dollar FAQs

What key factors drive the Australian Dollar?

One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.

How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar?

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.

How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar?

China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.

How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar?

Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar?

The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

23:02

Australia Judo Bank Composite PMI came in at 51.7, above expectations (51.4) in August

23:01

Australia Judo Bank Services PMI came in at 52.5, above expectations (52.2) in August

22:57

GBP/USD tests low end amid Greenback recovery GBPUSD

GBP/USD erased further below 1.3150 on Tuesday as markets bid the Greenback.
Market sentiment took a hit after US PMI figures failed to meet expectations.
US NFP figures loom ahead as traders try to gauge the depth of a first Fed rate cut.

GBP/USD softened on Tuesday, briefly testing below 1.3100 as Cable struggles to hold onto a bullish stance amid a near-term bearish pullback. Greenback bidding picked up the pace after a fresh batch of US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures failed to meet market expectations, reigniting investor concerns about the potential for a US recession.

Forex Today: The prospects of a US soft landing remain challenged by data

The data docket remains thin on Wednesday from the UK side, with little of note outside of low-tier final PMI figures for August. US labor figures remain a key point for market participants this week.

ISM’s US Manufacturing PMI for August came in below expectations, printing at 47.2 and missing the median market forecast of 47.5. Despite a soft rebound from July’s multi-month low of 46.8 failed to galvanize markets, giving already flighty investors a perfect excuse to pull back from a recent lopsided tilt into bullish expectations.

Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report looms large. It represents the last round of key US labor data before the Federal Reserve (Fed) delivers its latest rate call on September 18. Friday's NFP print is widely expected to set the tone for market expectations regarding the depth of a Fed rate cut, with investors fully priced in on the start of a new rate-cutting cycle this month.

GBP/USD price forecast

Cable has backslid from multi-month highs above 1.3250 back below the 1.3150 level as Greenback selling pressure cools, but the pair is stubbornly sticking to recent highs after vaulting to a peak 29-month bid in August. Price action is still tilted firmly into the bullish side above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.2725, while the immediate downside technical target for shorts will be the 50-day EMA just above the 1.2900 handle.

GBP/USD daily chart

Pound Sterling FAQs

What is the Pound Sterling?

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling?

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

How does economic data influence the value of the Pound?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound?

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

22:45

Australia's Gross Domestic Product to ease further in the second quarter

Australian Gross Domestic Product is expected to post a modest 1% yearly advance.
The Reserve Bank of Australia will monitor GDP figures before the September meeting.
Australian Dollar likely to extend its decline with the expected tepid figures.

Australia will release Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures on Wednesday. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is expected to report that the economy grew 0.3% in the second quarter (Q2) of the year and 1% in the twelve months to June. Annual growth in the first quarter printed at 1.1%. Should the expected 1% be confirmed, it will be the lowest pace of growth since the coronavirus-led recession in 2020.

What to expect from the Q2 GDP report

As previously noted, the Australian economy is expected to have grown by 1% in the year to June. But what does that mean for the Australian Dollar (AUD)?

Despite tepid growth, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is among those that maintain interest rates unchanged at multi-year highs. The Official Cash Rate (OCR) was lifted for the last time in November 2023 and currently stands at 4.35%. Even further, the RBA is nowhere near trimming interest rates as inflationary pressures have remained high.

And there is a good reason for it. The latest data available shows that consumer prices rose by 3.5% in the year to July, down from the 3.8% pace recorded in the 12 months to June. The RBA’s mandate is to keep annual consumer price inflation between 2% and 3%.

However, high interest rates usually translate into slower economic progress amid higher financial costs. To stimulate growth, the central bank would need to lower the OCR. The tricky thing is that boosting the economy is not within RBA’s mandate.

Theoretically, growth-related figures should not affect policymakers’ decisions. Nevertheless, they do. RBA officials will not acknowledge concerns on the matter but rather maintain the focus on inflation.

Meanwhile, underlying inflation in Australia increased throughout the first half of the year, boosting speculation the RBA could hike interest rates. Since the last meeting, inflation has eased modestly, and market players are willing to believe the OCR has peaked.

How can the GDP report affect the Australian Dollar?

The GDP report will be released on Wednesday at 01:30 GMT, and market participants will likely assess how the outcome could affect the upcoming RBA decision. Faster-than-anticipated growth will have a positive impact on the AUD as it will reflect not only economic progress but also spook fears of higher interest rates.

On the other hand, softer-than-expected progress could trigger multiple alarms. Not only will it push the AUD lower, but it will also fuel speculation the RBA should speed up the decision to trim interest rates, which will also negatively affect the local currency.

Valeria Bednark, FXStreet Chief Analyst, adds: “The Aussie is under strong selling pressure ahead of the announcement, with AUD/USD trading at around 0.6740. The pair fell amid mounting risk-aversion ahead of the release of United States (US) employment-related figures scheduled throughout the rest of the week. The US Dollar benefits from the dismal mood, which means that AUD/USD could easily pierce the 0.6700 mark with GDP figures below expected. Next support is located at 0.6660, en route to the 0.6630 price zone.”

Bednarik also notes: “Upbeat figures could trigger AUD near-term demand, but if risk aversion persists, gains could be limited. Even further, AUD/USD may resume its decline after the dust settles. The 0.6780 region is the immediate bullish target, followed by the 0.6810 price zone. Sellers may reappear around the latter, should the GDP post a modest beat. Finally, outrageous growth data could push the pair further up, with AUD/USD aiming to test the 0.6840 area.

Economic Indicator

Gross Domestic Product (YoY)

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in Australia during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of Australian economic activity. The YoY reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter compared with the same quarter a year earlier. Generally, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Next release: Wed Sep 04, 2024 01:30

Frequency: Quarterly

Consensus: 1%

Previous: 1.1%

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Why it matters to traders?

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) releases the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on a quarterly basis. It is published about 65 days after the quarter ends. The indicator is closely watched, as it paints an important picture for the economy. A strong labor market, rising wages and rising private capital expenditure data are critical for the country’s improved economic performance, which in turn impacts the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy decision and the Australian dollar. Actual figures beating estimates is considered AUD bullish, as it could prompt the RBA to tighten its monetary policy.

GDP FAQs

What is GDP and how is it recorded?

A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the rate of growth of its economy over a given period of time, usually a quarter. The most reliable figures are those that compare GDP to the previous quarter e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q1 of 2023, or to the same period in the previous year, e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q2 of 2022. Annualized quarterly GDP figures extrapolate the growth rate of the quarter as if it were constant for the rest of the year. These can be misleading, however, if temporary shocks impact growth in one quarter but are unlikely to last all year – such as happened in the first quarter of 2020 at the outbreak of the covid pandemic, when growth plummeted.

How does GDP influence currencies?

A higher GDP result is generally positive for a nation’s currency as it reflects a growing economy, which is more likely to produce goods and services that can be exported, as well as attracting higher foreign investment. By the same token, when GDP falls it is usually negative for the currency. When an economy grows people tend to spend more, which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation with the side effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors, thus helping the local currency appreciate.

How does higher GDP impact the price of Gold?

When an economy grows and GDP is rising, people tend to spend more which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold versus placing the money in a cash deposit account. Therefore, a higher GDP growth rate is usually a bearish factor for Gold price.

22:17

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD slides toward $28.00

XAG/USD hovers near $28.00, pressured by bearish RSI and moving averages above current levels.
Breaking below $28.00 opens the door for further declines toward $27.71, potentially targeting the 200-DMA at $26.59.
Bulls must reclaim the 100-DMA at $29.14 to shift momentum and regain control over Silver prices.

Silver price ended Tuesday’s session with losses of more than 1.50%, after economic data in the US hints that manufacturing activity continues to decelerate. Although it justifies the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate cut in September, the Greenback advanced sharply on relief that the labor market is cooling gradually. The XAG/USD trades at $28.05.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

At the time of writing, XAG/USD hovers around the $28.00 mark after hitting a two-week low of $27.71, yet buyers recovered some ground. However, momentum is tilted bearish, as shown by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the 50 and 100-daily moving averages (DMAs) standing above the current Silver price.

For a bearish resumption, XAG/USD must clear the $28.00 figure, followed by the September 3 low of $27.71. Further weakness will sponsor a leg-down toward the August 14 swing low of $27.18, followed by the 200-day moving average (DMA) at $26.59.

Conversely, buyers need to reclaim the 100-DMA at $29.14 if they would like to regain control.

XAG/USD Price Action – Daily Chart

Silver FAQs

Why do people invest in Silver?

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Which factors influence Silver prices?

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

How does industrial demand affect Silver prices?

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves?

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

21:00

South Korea FX Reserves climbed from previous 413.51B to 415.92B in August

20:32

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Tumbles on hawkish BoJ tone, firm below 146.00 USDJPY

USD/JPY forms a bearish engulfing pattern, signaling potential further downside in the near term.
RSI momentum supports sellers, with first support eyed at Tenkan-Sen 145.33 and psychological 145.00 level.
Bulls must reclaim Kijun-Sen at 148.45, with 150.00 needed to reverse the bearish trend.

The USD/JPY dropped late in the North American session, registering losses of over 0.80% or more than 100 pips. It now trades at 145.68.

During the overnight session for US traders, headlines revealed that Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated his hawkish stance on remarks submitted to a government panel. This was the main driver of the pair, along with the plunge of the yield of the US 10-year Treasury note.

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook

From a technical standpoint, the USD/JPY is downward biased, forming a ‘bearish engulfing’ chart pattern. This hints that more downside is seen, further confirmed by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), reassuring that momentum supports sellers.

With the path of least resistance tilted to the downside, USD/JPY's first support would be the Tenkan-Sen at 145.33. If hurdled, the next stop would be the 145.00 figure, ahead of testing the next cycle low of 143.45, the August 26 daily low. This would be the last line of defense for bulls, ahead of the August 5 low of 141.69.

For bulls to regain control, they must regain the Kijun-Sen at 148.45 before reclaiming the 150.00 figure above the latest cycle high of 149.39.

USD/JPY Price Action – Daily Chart

Japanese Yen PRICE Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.26%	0.28%	-0.92%	0.42%	1.19%	0.93%	-0.12%
EUR	-0.26%		0.00%	-1.16%	0.14%	0.91%	0.55%	-0.39%
GBP	-0.28%	-0.01%		-1.18%	0.14%	0.90%	0.55%	-0.39%
JPY	0.92%	1.16%	1.18%		1.32%	2.10%	1.67%	0.77%
CAD	-0.42%	-0.14%	-0.14%	-1.32%		0.75%	0.32%	-0.53%
AUD	-1.19%	-0.91%	-0.90%	-2.10%	-0.75%		-0.46%	-1.29%
NZD	-0.93%	-0.55%	-0.55%	-1.67%	-0.32%	0.46%		-0.83%
CHF	0.12%	0.39%	0.39%	-0.77%	0.53%	1.29%	0.83%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

19:51

Gold prices decline as soft US data boosts US Dollar

Gold prices fall as traders return from Labor Day, despite a stronger Dollar amid US economic slowdown signs.
US ISM Manufacturing PMI remains in contraction; employment sub-component improvement offers market some relief.
Despite a drop in 10-year Treasury yields to 3.84%, gold only briefly recovers after dipping to $2,473.

Gold prices fell during the North American session as traders returned to their desks following the Labor Day holiday. Data from the United States (US) hinted that business activity contracted, though traders bought the Greenback, a headwind for the golden metal. The XAU/USD trades at 2490, down 0.34%.

Earlier, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) revealed the August manufacturing PMI, remained below the 50-line contraction/expansion level, an indication of an economic slowdown. Despite this, an employment sub-component of the report improved slightly.

This is a relief for Federal Reserve officials, who remained worried about the labor market weakness. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a speech in Jackson Hole that employment risks are tilted to the upside.

Bullion prices ignored the fall in US Treasury bond yields yet recovered some ground after hitting a low of $2,473. The US 10-year Treasury note yields 3.84%, dropping eight basis points after the ISM’s report.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in a 65% chance of the Fed cutting its rate by 25 basis points (bps) at the upcoming September meeting. This will be a headwind for the Greenback and a tailwind for the non-yielding metal, which is expected to rise moderately, as 35% of the traders had positioned for a 50 bps cut.

"If the US jobs report is significantly weaker, speculation about a U.S. recession and faster rate cuts will resurface, further supporting gold," analysts at Commerzbank noted.

The US economic docket will be busy this week with the release of JOLTS job openings, the ADP National Employment Change, and the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) figures.

Daily digest market movers: Gold price traders await busy US economic calendar

ISM Manufacturing PMI for August improved from 46.8 to 47.2, below estimates of 47.5.
July’s JOLTS job openings are expected at 8.10 million, down from 8.184 million in June.
Private hiring, revealed by the ADP National Employment Change report, is foreseen increasing from 122K in July to 150K in August.
August’s NFP figures are expected to rise from 114K to 163K, while the Unemployment Rate could dip, according to the consensus, from 4.3% to 4.2%.
December 2024 Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) fed funds future rates contract hints that investors are eyeing 98 basis points of Fed easing this year.

Technical outlook: Gold price set to dive further below $2,500

Gold price is upward biased, even though momentum shifted in sellers’ favor and opened the door for a drop to $2,470. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hints that buyers are in charge, but in the near-term, the yellow metal could weaken.

In that event, if XAU/USD drops below $2,500, the next support would be the August 22 low at $2,470. Once surpassed, the next stop would be the confluence of the August 15 swing low and the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near the $2,427-$2,431 area.

Conversely, if XAU/USD stays above $2,500, the next resistance would be the ATH, and the following resistance would be the $2,550 mark. A breach of the latter will expose $2,600.

Gold FAQs

Why do people invest in Gold?

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Who buys the most Gold?

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

How is Gold correlated with other assets?

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

What does the price of Gold depend on?

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

18:54

Dow Jones Industrial Average backslides on fresh economic fears

The Dow Jones tumbled 500 points on Monday as investor confidence buckles.
Markets have fallen victim to new recession fears after US ISM figures miss the mark.
Investors are jostling for position ahead of this week’s bumper NFP jobs report.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) backslid to kick off the new trading week on Tuesday after US markets took the Labor Day holiday off. US traders were greeted by a fresh misprint in US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures that failed to meet expectations of a rebound in the print, sending a fresh round of recession fears rippling through equity markets.

ISM’s Manufacturing PMI for August came in below expectations, printing at 47.2 and missing the median market forecast of 47.5. Despite a soft rebound from July’s multi-month low of 46.8 failed to galvanize markets, giving already flighty investors a perfect excuse to pull back from a recent lopsided tilt into bullish expectations.

Tuesday’s overall decline has kicked off September’s trading with a notable bearish note as markets remain leery of softer US data on a per-release basis. An overall decline in the tech sector extended a broad-market pullback as the AI darling race begins to show cracks, with high-profile semiconductor companies struggling to hit lofty growth metrics.

Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report looms large on Friday, and represents the last round of key US labor data before the Federal Reserve (Fed) delivers its latest rate call on September 18. Friday's NFP print is widely expected to set the tone for market expectations regarding the depth of a Fed rate cut, with investors fully priced in on the start of a new rate cutting cycle this month.

Dow Jones news

Most of the Dow Jones equity board dipped into the red on Tuesday, with less than a third of the index finding the green. Verizon Communications (VZ) still managed to squeeze out a 2.4% gain on the day, rising to $42.80 per share, while Intel (INTC) plummeted roughly 8.5% to $20.17 per share.

According to market experts, Intel runs the risk of being dropped from the Dow Jones index, due in no small part to reports that the tech company is continuing to weigh slashing even more departments from the company in a bid to appease investors.

Elsewhere, 3M (MMM) is now at the top of the Dow Jones leaderboard, outperforming the rest of the equity index. 3M has climbed nearly 50% YTD, in a stellar recovery after spending half a decade in the dumps.

Dow Jones price forecast

The Dow Jones’ Tuesday plunge has dragged the index back below the 41,000 handle, declining over a full percent from the day’s opening bids and poised for its worst single-day performance in a month. The Dow Jones has tumbled 550 points after chalking in fresh record highs only last week, when DJIA bidders came within a stroke of 41,600.

Despite a near-term pullback, the Dow Jones is still trading deep into bull country, holding well above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 38,558. The nearest technical barrier for short pressure to take aim at rests at the 50-day EMA near 40,230.

Dow Jones daily chart

Dow Jones FAQs

What is the Dow Jones?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.

What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average?

Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.

What is Dow Theory?

Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.

How can I trade the DJIA?

There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.

18:41

Forex Today: The prospects of a US soft landing remain challenged by data

The Greenback regained balance and returned in a strong fashion following Monday’s inconclusive price action amidst the Labor Day holiday, advancing to two-week highs against the backdrop of further weakness in the risk-linked assets.

Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, September 4:

The US Dollar Index (DXY) advanced further and flirted with the key 102.00 barrier following reignited recession concerns and despite declining US yields. The weekly Mortgage Applications by MBA are due on September 4, followed by Balance of Trade results, Factory Orders, and the Fed Beige Book.

EUR/USD picked up extra downside traction and dropped below 1.1030 following the strong bounce in the Greenback. The final HCOB Services PMI in Germany and the euro bloc is expected on September 4.

GBP/USD added to the ongoing bearish correction and breached the 1.3100 support to hit two-week lows. The final S&P Global Services PMI will be released on September 4.

The sharp comeback of the Japanese yen dragged USD/JPY to the proximity of the 145.00 zone after four consecutive daily advances. On September 4, comes the final Jibun Bank Services PMI.

AUD/USD plummeted more than 1% and traded just pips away from the key support at 0.6700 the figure, all in response to the stronger US Dollar, Chinese demand jitters, and persistent weakness around commodities. The Ai Group Industry Index and the final Judo Bank Services PMI are due on September 4.

WTI prices collapsed to the boundaries of the key $70.00 mark per barrel on the back of a potential deal in Libya, which could see local oil production and exports resume their activity in the very near term.

Prices of Gold broke below the $2,500 mark per ounce troy to print new multi-day lows amidst the resumption of the bid bias in the US Dollar. Silver also saw its recent leg lower gather pace, deflating to three-week lows below the $28.00 mark per ounce.

18:05

Mexican Peso drops on Tuesday amid political uncertainty

Mexican Peso on backfoot as Congress votes on controversial judicial reform.
Morena’s supermajority is expected to pass the bill to the Senate, where they don’t have the majority.
Mexico’s Unemployment Rate rises in July, reflecting economic weakness.

The Mexican Peso registered losses for the second straight day against the Greenback, yet it has recovered some ground. The USD/MXN fell from around 19.98 after the release of the US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI report. The USD/MXN trades at 19.85 and gains some 0.30% at the time of writing.

Political turmoil in Mexico weighs on the Mexican currency as Congress prepares to vote for the judicial reform, which, according to foreign governments, workers of the Mexican court system, and multinational companies, if approved, could threaten democracy and open the door for criminal organizations to infiltrate the courts.

It is expected that Morena’s supermajority will approve the bill at the Chamber of Deputies. However, in the Senate, Morena remains slightly short of achieving the majority needed to modify the Constitution.

Regarding this, a judge granted a stay over the weekend to prevent debate on the proposal. The initiative has sparked a strike in the judicial sector, strained relations with the United States, and shaken local markets amid widespread doubts it generates.

In July, Fitch Ratings commented that it could negatively affect Mexico's investment appetite.

In addition, President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has also pushed bills to abolish autonomous bodies, such as the antitrust regulator and the Transparency Institute.

Mexico’s economic docket featured jobless rate data, which showed an uptick in the Unemployment Rate, which was aligned with the estimated rate, though higher than in June, according to the National Statistics Agency (INEGI).

Across the border, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory, yet the Employment sub-component improved compared to July’s data, welcomed by investors as Federal Reserve (Fed) officials had shifted to achieve the maximum employment mandate.

Daily digest market movers: Mexican Peso tumbles as economic data confirms slowdown

Mexico’s Unemployment Rate increased to 2.9% in July as expected, but it was higher than the 2.8% from June. Seasonally-adjusted figures showed Jobless Rate was unchanged at 2.7%.
Monday’s data in Mexico showed an improvement in Business Confidence, while business activity deteriorated further as measured by the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI.
Most banks expect the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to reduce rates by at least 50 basis points (bps) for the remainder of 2024. This would pressure the Mexican currency, which has already depreciated 15.38% year to date (YTD).
ISM Manufacturing PMI in August came at 47.2, below estimates of 47.5 but above July’s 46.8. Meanwhile, the Employment sub-component index rose from 43.4 to 46.0.
US Nonfarm Payrolls in August are expected to grow from 114K to 163K, while the Unemployment Rate is foreseen ticking lower from 4.3% to 4.2%.
Data from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) suggests the Fed will cut at least 96.5 basis points, according to the fed funds rate futures contract for December 2024.

Technical outlook: Mexican Peso slumps as USD/MXN climbs above 19.80

The USD/MXN is upwardly biased, consolidating near the 19.50-20.00 area. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is flat, though it remains bullish, indicating that momentum shows further upside in the exotic pair.

If USD/MXN buyers clear the 20.00 figure, plenty of additional topside targets exist. The next resistance would be the YTD high at 20.22, followed by the September 28, 2022, daily high at 20.57. If those two levels are surrendered, the next stop would be August 2, 2022, swing high at 20.82, ahead of 21.00.

On further USD/MXN weakness, the first support would be 19.50. A breach of the latter will expose the August 23 swing low of 19.02 before giving way for sellers eyeing a test of the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 18.65.

Mexican Peso FAQs

What key factors drive the Mexican Peso?

The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.

How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso?

The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.

How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso?

Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.

How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso?

As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

17:03

United States 52-Week Bill Auction dipped from previous 4.255% to 4.15%

15:54

New Zealand GDT Price Index down to -0.4% from previous 5.5%

15:30

More oil from OPEC+ again from October onwards? – Commerzbank

Despite the current massive production losses in Libya, a media report on Friday, according to which six sources close to OPEC indicated that the eight OPEC+ countries would stick to their announcement and reduce voluntary cuts from October, caused a massive setback in the oil market, Commerzbank’s commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes.

OPEC+ to ‘pay’ for its phase-out with significantly lower prices

“The price of Brent crude fell from just over $80 to just under $77 per barrel. On the one hand, the window of opportunity for production increases of around 180,000 barrels per day per month seems favorable in view of the massive production shortfalls.”

“On the other hand, it is not possible to predict 1) how long the production losses in Libya will last – the UN is already trying to mediate between the parties to the conflict; 2) whether Iraq (and Kazakhstan) will actually compensate for the overproduction from September and reduce their production; and 3) whether global demand for oil will actually recover as strongly in the second half of the year as the IEA has so far assumed.”

“In its August report, it projected that global oil demand would be more than 1.5 million barrels per day higher than in the first half of the year. China's recently subdued imports are a particular cause for skepticism: the poor mood in Chinese industry does not give rise to hopes of a rapid turnaround. As a result, there is a risk that OPEC+ will ‘pay’ for its phase-out in the form of significantly lower prices.”

15:00

GBP/USD: GBP holds retracement support in the low 1.31s – Scotiabank GBPUSD

The UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August was confirmed at 52.5 yesterday, the strongest result for the index in a little over two years, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

GBP gains above 1.3160 may drive some short-term gains

“Growth momentum, still elevated wages and inflation hotspots will keep the BoE sidelined in September (just 5-6bps of cuts are priced in for the policy meeting on the 19th) as many other core central banks ease policy. Slower rate cuts in the UK relative to other top central banks should limit scope for GBP losses in the near term.”

“GBP/USD has corrected a bit less than a quarter of the August rally and looks to be finding support around 1.3120 Fibonacci retracement (23.6% of the 1.2660/1.3266 rally). A low close on the week through Friday suggests consolidation rather than outright bearishness for the pound.”

“GBP gains above 1.3160 may drive some short-term gains while a push under 1.3120 will likely drive a little more weakness towards the 1.2950/1.3050 range.”

14:55

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Drops below 1.3100 on mixed US ISM data GBPUSD

GBP/USD slips below 1.3100 despite RSI giving mixed signals.
RSI trends bullish but momentum shifts to sellers, descending towards neutral.
A drop below 1.3100, GBP/USD could test July 17 high at 1.3043; further drops may reach psychological 1.3000, then 50-DMA at 1.2894.
Bullish trend resumes if GBP/USD sustains above 1.3100, surpassing September 2 peak at 1.3155, aiming for channel top at 1.3200.

The GBP/USD makes a U-turn, dives in early trading on Tuesday during the North American session, losing around 0.20%, and trades at 1.3099, below the 1.3100 figure.

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for August missed estimates, suggesting the economy is cooling due to the Fed's restrictive policy. However, an employment sub-component inside the report showed a slight improvement, which could be a prelude to Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The GBP/USD slid sharply on the data release, about to crack the 1.3100 figure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains bullish, but momentum has swung in the sellers' favor as the RSI aims lower, approaching its neutral level.

If GBP/USD tumbles below 1.3100, this could clear the path to test the 1.3043, July 17 high turned support. A drop below could cause the pair to test 1.3000, and if surpassed, the 50-day moving average (DMA) would be up next at 1.2894.

If bulls want to remain in charge, they must hold GBP/USD above 1.3100. For an uptrend resumption, clear the September 2 peak at 1.3155 before challenging the ascending channel top-trendline at 1.3200.

GBP/USD Price Action – Daily Chart

British Pound PRICE Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.28%	0.40%	-1.03%	0.41%	1.07%	0.88%	-0.25%
EUR	-0.28%		0.11%	-1.30%	0.13%	0.78%	0.50%	-0.57%
GBP	-0.40%	-0.11%		-1.43%	0.02%	0.67%	0.39%	-0.67%
JPY	1.03%	1.30%	1.43%		1.45%	2.12%	1.74%	0.75%
CAD	-0.41%	-0.13%	-0.02%	-1.45%		0.63%	0.28%	-0.69%
AUD	-1.07%	-0.78%	-0.67%	-2.12%	-0.63%		-0.39%	-1.33%
NZD	-0.88%	-0.50%	-0.39%	-1.74%	-0.28%	0.39%		-0.95%
CHF	0.25%	0.57%	0.67%	-0.75%	0.69%	1.33%	0.95%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

14:30

Less OPEC oil in the short term – Commerzbank

The Reuters news agency yesterday published a first survey-based estimate of OPEC's August production: at 26.4 million barrels, the cartel's daily output was 340 thousand barrels lower than in July and thus the lowest level since January, Commerzbank’s commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes.

August OPEC output is the lowest level since January

“The main reason for this was a significant drop in production in Libya of 290 thousand barrels per day. This reflects not only recent production losses, but also the shutdown of the Sharara oil field earlier in the month. Although Libya is an OPEC member, it is not bound by production targets. Quota-bound OPEC members are still producing 220 thousand barrels per day above target, according to the Reuters report, which is still largely due to Iraq.”

“However, OPEC production could fall further in September: First, if Libyan oil production is cut for an extended period of time - on August 28, production was down to just under 600,000 barrels per day, and yesterday "force majeure" was reported for another oil field. And second, if Iraq actually implements the plans it confirmed during the OPEC Secretary General's visit and reduces its production to below 4 million barrels.”

14:22

Gold: Nearly half of trend followers positions to be liquidated – TDS

For the first time in months, CTAs could start liquidating Gold in a downtape over the coming week, reinforcing the set-up for our tactical short. Alternative takes on the positioning set-up are of the view that Western money managers can continue to increase their length, underscored by a naked read of CFTC positioning data which suggests speculator positioning is only a touch frothy and well below its historical maximum, TDS commodity analyst Daniel Ghali notes.

Possible CTA selling activity to start over the coming week

“Our advanced positioning analytics, however, provide an edge on this read. Our point of contention: accounting for the leverage context suggests it is already effectively maxed out. CTAs' and risk parity portfolios' positioning is constrained by the leverage environment, which explains why we believe the CFTC data has already effectively reached a local maximum even though it remains below its historical max.”

“Macro fund positioning is also effectively maxed out. This positioning remains statistically consistent with more than 400bps of Fed cuts over the coming year, and is at levels that marked local highs in several previous cycles, followed by drawdowns in the 7%-10% range.”

“With several cohorts simultaneously vulnerable, a continued downtape in Gold can finally start to catalyze CTA selling activity over the coming week, reinforcing our view that the first cohort to blink can snowball subsequent selling activity. After all, we estimate that nearly half of trend followers positions will be liquidated in a revisit towards $2400/oz. Downside risks are now more potent.”

14:08

USD/CAD Price Forecast: Jumps to near 1.3550 USDCAD

USD/CAD surges to near 1.3550 as the Canadian Dollar weakens ahead of the BoC policy meeting.
The US Dollar surrenders its intraday gains with US NFP in focus.
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI contracted again in August.

The USD/CAD pair climbs to near 1.3550 in Tuesday’s North American session. The Loonie asset gains sharply as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) weakens amid uncertainty ahead of the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) monetary policy meeting, which will be announced on Wednesday.

Investors see the BoC reducing interest rates again by 25 basis points (bps) 4.25%. This would be the third straight interest rate cut in a row due to easing price pressures, economic slowdown, and downside risks to the labor market.

The US Dollar (USD) gives up its intraday gains with investors focusing on the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for August, releasing on Friday, which will influence market speculation for Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts.

Meanwhile, the US ISM has reported weaker-than-expected Manufacturing PMI data for August. The report showed that activities contracted at a slower pace, with PMI coming in at 47.2, lower than estimates of 47.5 but higher than the former release of 46.8.

USD/CAD rebounds sharply after a V-shape recovery from a fresh five-month low of 1.3440 on a daily timeframe. The asset is expected to extend its recovery to near the horizontal resistance plotted from May 15 low of 1.3590, which used to be a key support for the US Dollar bulls.

The declining 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.3590 suggests that the near-term trend is bearish. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounds sharply after turning oversold near 22.50. The movement suggests that the bearish momentum has ended for now, however, the overall trend is still bearish.

Further pullback May 15 low of 1.3590 will likely be a selling opportunity for market participants, which would drag the asset towards April 5 low of 1.3540, followed by the psychological support of 1.3500.

On the flip side, an upside recovery above August 21 high of 1.3626 would drive the asset towards 19 August high of 1.3687 and August 15 high of 1.3738.

USD/CAD daily chart

Canadian Dollar FAQs

What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar?

The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.

How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar?

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.

How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar?

The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar?

While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.

How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar?

Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

14:07

United States RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM) came in at 46.1, below expectations (46.2) in September

14:06

US ISM Manufacturing PMI edges higher to 47.2 in August vs. 47.5 expected

US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose slightly in August.
US Dollar Index stays in daily range above 101.50.

The business activity in the US manufacturing sector continued to contract, albeit at a softer pace in August, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI edging higher to 47.2 from 46.8 in July. This reading came in slightly below the market expectation of 47.5.

The Employment Index of the PMI recovered to 46 from 43.4 in July, while the New Orders Index fell to 44.6 from 47.4 in the same period. Finally, the Prices Paid Index, the inflation component, rose to 54 from 52.9.

Commenting on the survey's findings, “while still in contraction territory, U.S. manufacturing activity contracted slower compared to last month," said Timothy R. Fiore, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "Demand continues to be weak, output declined, and inputs stayed accommodative."

Market reaction

These figures don't seem to be having a significant impact on the US Dollar's valuation. At the time of press, the US Dollar Index was virtually unchanged on the day at 101.62.