CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 02-07-2020

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02.07.2020
22:31
Australia: AiG Performance of Construction Index, June 35.5
19:50
Schedule for tomorrow, Friday, July 3, 2020
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
01:30 Australia Retail Sales, M/M May -17.7% 16.3%
01:45 China Markit/Caixin Services PMI June 55.0  
07:50 France Services PMI June 31.1 50.3
07:55 Germany Services PMI June 32.6 45.8
08:00 Eurozone Services PMI June 30.5 47.3
08:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Services June 29.0 47
17:01
U.S.: Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count, July 185
16:00
European stocks closed: FTSE 100 6,240.36 +82.40 +1.34% DAX 12,608.46 +347.89 +2.84% CAC 40 5,049.38 +122.44 +2.49%
14:53
U.S.: Outsized gains in payrolls likely won’t be repeated in the next few months - Wells Fargo

The US official employment report for June showed better-than-expected numbers, with a gain in jobs of 4.8 million. Analysts at Wells Fargo point out that those gains likely won’t be repeated in the next few months due to the recent re-acceleration in coronavirus cases.

“Over the past two months, payrolls have rebounded 7.5 million, as businesses that were shuttered due to the pandemic re-opened and began to call back furloughed workers. That said, the labor market still has a long way to go to recoup the 22 million jobs that were lost in March and April.”

“Employment gains were broad-based. Increases were concentrated in industries that had borne the brunt of the layoffs. Specifically, payrolls rose nearly 2.1 million in June in the leisure & hospitality sector (i.e., restaurants, hotels, etc.) and 740K in the retail sector.”

“The unemployment rate fell by more than most analysts had expected, dipping to 11.1% in June from 13.3% in May (...) the labor market still has a long way to go as nearly 18 million individuals are currently classified as unemployed.”

“With the number of COVID-19 cases accelerating and some states delaying re-opening or imposing new restrictions, we are concerned that a significant number of individuals may become furloughed again. The outsized gains in payrolls that were registered in May and June likely won’t be repeated in the next few months.”

14:26
U.S. factory orders increase less than forecast in May

The U.S. Commerce Department reported on Thursday that the value of new factory orders jumped 8.0 percent m-o-m in May, following a revised 13.5 percent m-o-m plunge in April (originally a 13.0 percent m-o-m decline). That was the biggest monthly advance in new orders since July 2014.

Economists had forecast an 8.7 percent m-o-m increase.

According to the report, orders for transportation equipment climbed 82.0 percent m-o-m in May after a 48.9 percent m-o-m tumble in April. Notable gains also occurred in orders for primary metals (+8.9 percent m-o-m), fabricated metal products (+7.4 percent m-o-m), and furniture and related products (+5.3 percent m-o-m). In addition, orders were up in electrical equipment, appliances, and components (+1.0 percent m-o-m), computers and electronic products (+0.7 percent m-o-m), and machinery (0.5 percent m-o-m).

Total factory orders excluding transportation, a volatile part of the overall reading, rose 2.6 percent m-o-m in May compared to a revised 8.9 percent m-o-m fall in April.

14:01
U.S.: Factory Orders , May 8% m/m (forecast 8.7%)
13:57
Canada’s trade deficit narrows much more than anticipated in May

Statistics Canada announced on Thursday that Canada’s merchandise trade deficit stood at CAD0.68 billion in May, narrowing from a revised CAD4.27-billion gap in April (originally a CAD3.25-billion gap). That was the smallest trade gap since November 2019.

Economists had expected a deficit of CAD3.00 billion.

According to the report, Canada’s exports increased 6.7 percent m-o-m to $34.61 billion in May, driven by higher exports of motor vehicles and parts (+76.2 percent m-o-m), energy products (+14.5 percent m-o-m), consumer goods (+9.5 percent m-o-m) and farm, fishing and intermediate food products (+9.1 percent m-o-m).

Meanwhile, imports dropped 3.9 percent m-o-m to $35.29 billion in May, the lowest level since November 2010, with the lower imports of basic and industrial chemical, plastic and rubber products (-14.4 percent m-o-m) contributing the most to the decrease. 

13:41
U.S. trade deficit widens more than forecast in May

The U.S. Commerce Department reported on Thursday that U.S. the goods and services trade deficit widened to $54.6 billion in May from a revised $49.8 billion in the previous month (originally a gap of $49.4 billion). That was the biggest trade gap since December 2018.

Economists had expected a deficit of $53.0 billion.

According to the report, the May advance in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $4.2 billion to $76.1 billion and a decline in the services surplus of $0.6 billion to $21.5 billion.

In May, exports of goods and services from the U.S. fell 4.4 percent m-o-m to $144.5 billion (the lowest level since November 2009), while imports decreased 09 percent m-o-m to $199.1 billion (the lowest level since July 2010), in part, due to the impact of COVID-19, as many businesses were operating at limited capacity or ceased operations completely, and the movement of travelers across borders was restricted.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit declined 9.1 percent from the same period in 2019. Exports plunged 14.0 percent, while imports tumbled 13.1 percent.

13:32
U.S. Stocks open: Dow +1.40%, Nasdaq +1.12%, S&P +1.16%
13:25
Before the bell: S&P futures +1.25%, NASDAQ futures +1.00%

U.S. stock-index futures climbed on Thursday, following a much-better-than-expected U.S. employment report for June.


Global Stocks:

Index/commodity

Last

Today's Change, points

Today's Change, %

Nikkei

22,145.96

+24.23

+0.11%

Hang Seng

25,124.19

+697.00

+2.85%

Shanghai

3,090.57

+64.59

+2.13%

S&P/ASX

6,032.70

+98.30

+1.66%

FTSE

6,231.33

+73.37

+1.19%

CAC

5,034.14

+107.20

+2.18%

DAX

12,547.17

+286.60

+2.34%

Crude oil

$40.12


+0.75%

Gold

$1,775.10


-0.27%

12:56
Wall Street. Stocks before the bell

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)


3M Co

MMM

158

2.57(1.65%)

2674

ALCOA INC.

AA

11.2

0.25(2.28%)

13759

ALTRIA GROUP INC.

MO

39.6

0.36(0.92%)

7394

Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ

AMZN

2,914.80

36.10(1.25%)

94506

American Express Co

AXP

96.5

2.45(2.61%)

28961

AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP

AIG

30.4

0.82(2.77%)

13167

Apple Inc.

AAPL

367.11

3.00(0.82%)

350896

AT&T Inc

T

30.18

0.28(0.94%)

125398

Boeing Co

BA

185.72

5.40(2.99%)

747671

Caterpillar Inc

CAT

128.1

2.04(1.62%)

10505

Chevron Corp

CVX

89.25

1.63(1.86%)

34718

Cisco Systems Inc

CSCO

46.09

0.39(0.85%)

69607

Citigroup Inc., NYSE

C

52.06

1.71(3.40%)

179235

E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Co

DD

52.96

0.64(1.22%)

799

Exxon Mobil Corp

XOM

44.44

0.73(1.67%)

120431

Facebook, Inc.

FB

240

2.45(1.03%)

296711

FedEx Corporation, NYSE

FDX

157.08

0.42(0.27%)

47482

Ford Motor Co.

F

6.07

0.09(1.51%)

624768

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE

FCX

11.71

0.22(1.91%)

16776

General Electric Co

GE

6.88

0.14(2.08%)

920991

General Motors Company, NYSE

GM

25.41

0.45(1.80%)

91452

Goldman Sachs

GS

202.48

4.91(2.49%)

19320

Google Inc.

GOOG

1,448.50

10.46(0.73%)

9317

Hewlett-Packard Co.

HPQ

17.2

0.20(1.18%)

1746

Home Depot Inc

HD

250.74

2.59(1.04%)

14049

HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC.

HON

146.25

2.14(1.49%)

2224

Intel Corp

INTC

59.37

0.56(0.95%)

51738

International Business Machines Co...

IBM

119.81

1.27(1.07%)

17823

International Paper Company

IP

34.92

0.11(0.32%)

898

Johnson & Johnson

JNJ

142.05

1.67(1.19%)

13624

JPMorgan Chase and Co

JPM

94.94

2.58(2.79%)

288455

McDonald's Corp

MCD

185.47

0.81(0.44%)

13625

Merck & Co Inc

MRK

79.12

1.00(1.28%)

5963

Microsoft Corp

MSFT

206.5

1.80(0.88%)

211995

Nike

NKE

98.78

1.38(1.42%)

36909

Pfizer Inc

PFE

34.78

1.04(3.08%)

818210

Procter & Gamble Co

PG

120.95

0.97(0.81%)

21802

Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ

SBUX

74.99

0.96(1.30%)

30384

Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ

TSLA

1,220.20

100.57(8.98%)

1180203

The Coca-Cola Co

KO

45.37

0.55(1.23%)

39970

Twitter, Inc., NYSE

TWTR

31.33

0.52(1.69%)

90576

UnitedHealth Group Inc

UNH

303.15

5.42(1.82%)

4723

Verizon Communications Inc

VZ

55.04

0.37(0.68%)

21960

Visa

V

196.03

2.25(1.16%)

62139

Wal-Mart Stores Inc

WMT

120.27

0.58(0.48%)

12416

Walt Disney Co

DIS

115

1.99(1.76%)

40955

Yandex N.V., NASDAQ

YNDX

50.81

1.32(2.67%)

27748

12:53
Target price changes before the market open

Tesla (TSLA) target raised to $1250 from $1000 at Wedbush

12:51
U.S. weekly jobless claims total 1.427 million

The data from the Labor Department revealed on Thursday the number of applications for unemployment rose more than forecast last week, as the CVID-19 pandemic continues to pressure the U.S. economy.

According to the report, the initial claims for unemployment benefits totaled 1,427,000 for the week ended June 27. That brought the number of job losses over the past fifteen weeks (since the U.S. went into coronavirus lockdown in mid-March) to nearly 48.7 million.

Economists had expected 1,355,000 new claims last week.

Claims for the prior week were revised upwardly to 1,482,000 from the initial estimate of 1,480,000.

Meanwhile, the four-week moving average of claims fell to 1,503,750 from an upwardly revised 1,621,250 in the previous week.

Continuing claims increased to 19,290,000 million from a downwardly revised 19,231,000 in the previous week.

12:42
U.S. nonfarm payrolls increase more than expected in June

The U.S. Labor Department announced on Thursday that nonfarm payrolls rose by 4,800,000 in June after an upwardly revised 2,699,000 climb in the prior month (originally the surge of 2,509,000), reflecting the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed in March and April due to the coronavirus pandemic and efforts to contain it.

According to the report, employment rose sharply in leisure and hospitality (+2.1 million jobs), retail trade (+740,000), education and health services (+568,000), other services (+357,000), manufacturing (+356,000), and professional and business services (+306,000).

The unemployment rate fell to 11.1 percent in June from 13.3 percent in May.

Economists had forecast the nonfarm payrolls to increase by 3,000,000 and the jobless rate to drop to 12.3 percent.

The labor force participation rate increased by 0.7 percentage point in June to 61.5 percent, while hourly earnings for private-sector workers fell 1.2 percent m-o-m (or $0.35) to $29.37, following an unrevised 1.0 percent m-o-m decrease in May. Economists had forecast a 0.7 percent m-o-m fall in the average hourly earnings. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 5.0 percent, following a revised 6.6 percent rise in May (originally an increase of 6.7 percent).

The average workweek decreased by 0.2 hour to 34.5 hours in June, matching economists' forecast for 34.5 hours.

12:31
U.S.: Average hourly earnings , June -1.2% (forecast -0.7%)
12:31
U.S.: Unemployment Rate, June 11.1% (forecast 12.3%)
12:31
U.S.: Average workweek, June 34.5 (forecast 34.5)
12:31
U.S.: Labor Force Participation Rate, June 61.5%
12:31
Canada: Trade balance, billions, May -0.68В (forecast -3В)
12:31
U.S.: Continuing Jobless Claims, June 19290K (forecast 19000)
12:31
U.S.: Initial Jobless Claims, June 1427К (forecast 1355К)
12:31
U.S.: Manufacturing Payrolls, June 356K (forecast 311)
12:31
U.S.: Government Payrolls, June 33K
12:31
U.S.: Private Nonfarm Payrolls, June 4767K (forecast 2900)
12:31
U.S.: Nonfarm Payrolls, June 4800К (forecast 3000К)
12:31
U.S.: International Trade, May -54.6В (forecast -53В)
12:19
EUR/USD to rebound towards the 1.15 mark through July - Westpac

FXStreet reports that economists at Westpac note that the 17-18 July EC Summit will discuss EU Recovery Fund and possible agreement between Germany’s Constitutional Court and ECB should support EUR/USD within a 1.12-1.15 range.

“A potentially destabilising Eurozone problem might have fallen away now that ECB appears to have provided sufficient transparency on asset purchasing and commitments to adjust assets to be closer to regional proportionality to appease Germany’s Constitutional Court.”

“The EC Summit is seen as a critical juncture in the formation of a pan-EU funding mechanism that might draw closer a genuine fiscal union, placating opposition from the Frugal Four and periphery states. How long-term budget contributions are sliced and diced may prove a key means of finding a compromise.” 

“Until mid-July, the progress of recovery from the lockdown will likely dominate market sentiment. This week’s surge in German retail sales may prove a harbinger of at least near-term consumer activity and so will focus attention on Eurozone retail sales.” 

“EUR/USD should still find support around 1.1200 before rebounding towards the 1.15 area through July.”

12:08
U.S. state department to warn companies on conducting business with China - Fox News reports
12:06
European session review: USD weakens as encouraging economic data and prospects for near-term coronavirus vaccine support risk sentiment

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
06:30SwitzerlandConsumer Price Index (MoM) June0.0%0.1%0.0%
06:30SwitzerlandConsumer Price Index (YoY)June-1.3%-1.2%-1.3%
09:00EurozoneProducer Price Index (YoY)May-4.5%-4.8%-5%
09:00EurozoneProducer Price Index, MoM May-2%-0.5%-0.6%
09:00EurozoneUnemployment Rate May7.3%7.7%7.4%

USD fell against most major currencies in the European session on Thursday, as risk sentiment improved, underpinned by macro data showing economic recovery worldwide and news of a potential coronavirus vaccine.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), measuring the U.S. currency's value relative to a basket of foreign currencies, dropped 0.24% to 96.96.

Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported on Wednesday that manufacturing activity in the U.S. rebounded more than forecast in June, hitting its highest level in more than a year, as the broader economy reopened. China, Germany and France also saw improvements in factory activity last month. The latest portion of encouraging data bolstered hopes of a global economic recovery from the pandemic.

Market participants are now awaiting the U.S. jobs report for June due at 12:30 GMT. Economists forecast that U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 3 million last month after a 2.5-million climb in May as the world's biggest economy continues to improve.

The news that Pfizer (PFE) and BioNTech (BNTX) made progress on their COVID-19 vaccine candidate also continued to support sentiment. 

Meanwhile, worries about the current COVID-19 situation blunted more aggressive risk-taking. According to the Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering, the total number of confirmed global cases of the COVID-19 rose to 10,694,288, with the U.S. recording 2,686,480 coronavirus cases, the most in the world.  

The minutes from the Fed's June 9-10 meeting, which were released on Wednesday, highlighted concerns about a spike in coronavirus infections due to early reopening, and that highly accommodative monetary policy would likely be needed to facilitate the recovery.

11:38
NZD/USD to test 0.6585 during the week ahead - Westpac

NZD/USD to test 0.6585 during the week ahead – Westpac

FXStreet notes that the NZD/USD has surged above the 0.65 level, trading up +0.52% on Thursday as global risk sentiment has rebounded, dominating other global negatives such as second coronavirus waves or Sino-American issues. Economists at Westpac expect the kiwi to test 0.6585 next week. 

“The rise in sentiment is fuelled by global government and central bank stimulus, and that factor appears to have dominated negatives recently, such as second Covid waves (including a few cases imported to NZ which may delay any border relaxations) and US-China tensions.”

“NZD/USD has perked up over the past few days, following the rebound in equity markets. There’s potential to test 0.6585 during the week ahead.”

“Should the NZD remain elevated, the implication is inflation forecasts will be subject to downgrades, in turn requiring further policy accommodation. That will be a negative story for the NZD early in 2021.”

11:16
S&P 500: Potential to soar 12% through June 2021 - Morgan Stanley

FXStreet reports that Morgan Stanley strategists believe a new cycle has started and a recovery could be more normal than investors expect, therefore, there is room for the S&P 500 to rise 12% through June 2021.

“Morgan Stanley strategists have increased their base-case equity targets across the board with a forecast of 12% upside for the S&P 500 through June 2021, and 10% returns for the MSCI Europe. In Japan, the Topix could decline just 2% over the next 12 months, while the MSCI Emerging Markets index is now forecast to decline by 7% vs. 19% previously.”

“A summer surge in US coronavirus cases, given the unpredictability of the pandemic and the effect on consumer market psychology, the path of coronavirus infections will remain a risk-factor to any outlook.”

“The updated equity returns reflect improvements in target price-to-earnings (P/E) multiples and another six months of a strong earnings recovery. ‘High multiples on trough earnings is fairly common,’ says Wilson, whose team expects earnings to rebound 20% in 2021.”

10:55
USD/JPY: Upside momentum gathers extra pace - UOB

USD/JPY: Upside momentum gathers extra pace - UOB

FXStreet reports that FX Strategists at UOB Group noted that USD/JPY could edge higher and re-visit the 108.40 region in the next weeks.

24-hour view: “The rapid decline in USD after touching a high of 108.16 came as a surprise (USD dropped sharply to a low of 107.35). The decline appears to be running ahead of itself and further weakness in USD is unlikely. USD is more likely to consolidate and trade sideways at these lower levels, expected to be between 107.30 and 107.70.”

Next 1-3 weeks: “USD moved above the top of our expected 106.40/107.80 range yesterday (high of 107.87). Upward momentum is beginning to improve and USD could strengthen towards 108.40. As the build-up in momentum is still in its nascent stage, it is too early to expect a sustained move towards 108.40. On the downside, a breach of 107.00 (‘strong support’ level) would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased.”

10:36
Oil: Subdued demand recavoery to limit the uptrend - ANZ

FXStreet reports that WTI is up 0.50% on Thursday as crude oil prices held early gains after inventories in the US fell more than expected. Nonetheless, signs of the demand recovery slowing down will limit the upside, according to strategists at ANZ Bank.

“EIA data showed stockpiles in the US were down 7.2mbbl last week, the biggest retreat since December. At Cushing, WTI’s main storage/pricing hub, stockpiles were down for the eighth consecutive week. However, it wasn’t all good news, with implied fuel demand falling.” 

“It wasn’t all good news, with implied fuel demand falling. New cases of COVID-19 continue to rise in the US, with 46,065 yesterday bringing the total to 2.66m. Arizona and California reported their biggest daily gains, while Florida worsened. This has seen the easing of restrictions halted in many states, with some reinstating constraints. New York extended its list of states from which visitors must quarantine on arrival.”

“The market was also comforted by reports that OPEC is maintaining its supply constraints successfully. Bloomberg data shows that the group cut its output by 1.93mb/d to 22.69mb/d in June. That’s its lowest level since May 1991. The overall compliance with the supply agreement was 100%, although the rates varied among members.”

10:16
GBP/USD: Recovery is seen unchanged near-term - UOB

FXStreet reports that in the opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, further upside is now on the cards for Cable.

24-hour view: “We expected GBP to ‘edge higher’ yesterday but it lifted off and soared to a high of 1.2490. The sharp and rapid advance is deep in overbought territory. That said, there is room for GBP to continue to strengthen even though a break of 1.2540 would come as a surprise (minor resistance is at 1.2510). Overall, only a break of 1.2405 would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased (minor support is at 1.2440).”

Next 1-3 weeks: “We noted yesterday (01 Jul, spot at 1.2385) that the recent weak phase has ended and expected GBP to ‘trade between 1.2280 and 1.2480’. GBP subsequently rose quickly to a high of 1.2490 before ending the day on a firm note at 1.2476 (+0.60%). While upward momentum has improved, it is unclear for now if GBP can continue to march higher. Overall, GBP is expected to trade with an upside bias but at this stage, the prospect for a sustained advance above 1.2580 is not high. On the downside, a break of 1.2355 would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased.”

09:58
Still long way to go on EU recovery fund deal, EU official says

Reuters reports that negotiations towards the European Union's coronavirus recovery fund still have a long way to go before a summit of EU leaders later this month, a senior EU official involved in the talks said on Thursday.

The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said negotiators aimed to keep the size of the proposed 750 billion euro ($846.75 billion) recovery fund but to reduce the size of the EU's multi-year budget slightly.

European Council President Charles Michel will propose a budget for 2021-to 2027 of between 1.05 billion euros and 1.94 billion euros, the official said.

09:44
AUD/USD to face tough barrier at 0.6977 on a break of 0.6944 – Credit Suisse

FXStreet reports that the aussie currently moves up 0.20% and a break above 0.6977 would now see an ascending bull ‘triangle’ complete but first the pair will challenge resistance at 0.6944, the Credit Suisse analyst team reports.

“We look for a move higher in due course, with resistance seen initially at 0.6944. Above here is needed to see a break higher towards the upper end of the ‘triangle’ at 0.6975/77, where we would expect to see fresh selling at first. Removal of here on a clear and closing basis would then confirm the bullish pattern and suggest further upside is likely towards even more important resistance at 0.7032/63.” 

“Support is seen initially at 0.6905, then back at 0.6877 and 0.6850, where we would expect a first attempt to hold. Beneath here would see a move back to 0.6777/75, which ideally holds to keep the upside bias intact.”

09:32
Eurozone's industrial producer prices down by 0.6% in May

According to the report from Eurostat, in May 2020, a third month still marked by COVID-19 containment measures in most Member States, industrial producer prices fell, compared with April 2020, by 0.6% in the euro area and by 0.5% in the EU. Economists had expected a 0.5% decrease in the euro area. In April 2020, prices decreased by 2.0% in the euro area and by 1.9% in the EU.

In May 2020, compared with May 2019, industrial producer prices decreased by 5.0% in the euro area and by 4.6% in the EU.

Industrial producer prices in the euro area in May 2020, compared with April 2020, decreased by 1.4% in the energy sector, by 0.6% for non-durable consumer goods and by 0.4% for intermediate goods, while prices remained stable for capital goods and for durable consumer goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy decreased by 0.3%. In the EU, industrial producer prices decreased by 1.2% in the energy sector, by 0.6% for non-durable consumer goods and by 0.4% for intermediate goods, while prices remained stable for capital goods and for durable consumer goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy decreased by 0.4%.

09:15
Eurozone's unemployment rate rose slightly in May

According to the report from Eurostat, in May 2020, a third month marked by COVID-19 containment measures in most Member States, the euro area seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 7.4%, up from 7.3% in April 2020. Economists had expected an increase to 7.7%. The EU unemployment rate was 6.7% in May 2020, up from 6.6% in April 2020. 

Eurostat estimates that 14.366 million men and women in the EU, of whom 12.146 million in the euro area, were unemployed in May 2020. Compared with April 2020, the number of persons unemployed increased by 253 000 in the EU and by 159 000 in the euro area. 

In May 2020, 2.815 million young persons (under 25) were unemployed in the EU, of whom 2.267 million were in the euro area. In May 2020, the youth unemployment rate was 15.7% in the EU and 16.0% in the euro area, up from 15.4% and 15.7% respectively in the previous month. Compared with April 2020, youth unemployment increased by 64 000 in the EU and by 42 000 in the euro area.

09:01
Eurozone: Unemployment Rate , May 7.4% (forecast 7.7%)
09:01
Eurozone: Producer Price Index, May -5% YoY (forecast -4.8%)
09:01
Eurozone: Producer Price Index, May -0.6% MoM (forecast -0.5%)
08:40
USD/CNH clings to the consolidative mood – UOB

FXStreet reports that FX Strategists at UOB Group still expect USD/CNH to trade in a consolidative fashion in the short-term horizon.

24-hour view: “USD dropped to a low of 7.0586 yesterday before rebounding. The price action was in line with our expectation wherein USD ‘could move lower to 7.0600 but 7.0550 is unlikely to come into the picture’. The underlying tone still appears to be on the soft side and this could translate into a lower trading range of 7.0550/7.0750 for today (a sustained decline below 7.0550 is not expected).”

Next 1-3 weeks: “USD traded within relatively narrow range the last couple of days. For now, there is no change to our latest narrative from last Thursday (25 Jun, spot at 7.0760). As highlighted, USD is expected to trade sideways, likely within a broad 7.0400/7.1000 range for now.”

08:21
China auto sales set to rise 11% in June - industry body

Reuters reports that China's vehicle sales for June are set to rise 11% year-on-year to 2.28 million units, the country's top auto industry body said in a post on its official WeChat account on Thursday.

The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) said that its forecast was based on sales data it had collected from key companies, without giving further details.

It expects January to June auto sales in China, the world's biggest auto market, to fall 17% year-on-year to 10.24 million units.

07:59
S&P 500: Downside risks do not threat March lows – JP Morgan

FXStreet reports that case growth remaining contained, policy remaining accommodative and the reopening process going smoothly have driven the S&P 500 Index to its best quarter the fourth quarter of 1998. But with case growth accelerating and the future direction of fiscal policy uncertain, two of these pillars have been called into question. Therefore, risks are skewed to the downside, according to David Lebovitz from JP Morgan who discards a retest of March lows though.

“From a policy perspective, this makes it increasingly important that the unemployment benefits which are set to expire at the end of July are extended in the coming weeks. On the growth front, given that the direction of the data has been a more significant driver of markets than the level, the path forward for the economy will be monitored closely. However, we have far more information in hand than was the case three months ago; the risks to valuation are tilted to the downside, but a re-test of the March lows seem like a bit of a stretch.”

“The fundamentals are becoming increasingly important, and over the next few weeks, companies will begin reporting second-quarter profits. The silver lining to the upcoming earnings season is companies may start to provide some guidance as to what they expect over the remainder of the year and into 2021. That said, we acknowledge that the distribution of outcomes remains wide, and maintain that the best investment approach will be one characterized by balance between quality and cyclicality.”

07:39
Spain's June jobless rises by 0.13% m/m to 3.86 million as coronavirus lockdown ends

Reuters reports that the number of people in Spain registering as jobless rose by 0.13% in June from a month earlier, or by 5,017 people, leaving 3.86 million people out of work as the coronavirus lockdown was lifted, data from the Labour Ministry showed on Thursday.

The number of registered jobless people had risen in May by 0.68%. Overall there were 847,197 more jobless people in June than in the same month a year ago.

A net 99,906 jobs were lost in June, even though the lockdown was gradually lifted during the month.

07:19
U.S.-China relations are headed for the ‘darkest chapter yet,’ says Eurasia Group

CNBC reports that relations between the U.S. and China — the world’s top two economies — could worsen further as both countries have signaled that they are prepared to fight each other in many more ways, according to a political risk expert.

“There’s a lot of room for escalation here. I think that it’s, by now, quite clear that we’re in for the darkest chapter yet of U.S.-China relations,” Todd Mariano, director for U.S. at Eurasia Group, told CNBC on Thursday.

“We’re seeing moves now more on the technology and export front. I think the troubling sign is simply the multiplicity of fronts at which the two countries are fighting or preparing to fight,” he said.

In the past few years, disputes between the two countries were focused on areas such as their trade imbalance and contest in technology — which triggered a tariff war threatening to derail the global economy.

In recent months, the U.S. and China have hit out at each other over a wider range of issues which include the origin of the coronavirus and the autonomy of Hong Kong.

Hong Kong, a major business and financial center in Asia, is a self-governed Chinese territory that has a special trading relationship with the U.S. But Washington has started to pare back some of the city’s privileges under U.S. law as Beijing tightens its control over the territory by enacting a national security law.

In addition, China’s expanding Belt and Road Initiative and continued assertions in the South China Sea also feed into its tensions with the U.S., according to Mariano.

The Belt and Road Initiative is a massive infrastructure push that many analysts and critics see as China’s way of spreading its global influence through lending. The South China Sea is an important sea route for world trade where Beijing has claimed most of it as its own territory, even though other countries also lay claim to parts of it.    

“Having such a widespread conflict, I think, really undermines the ability of policymakers to sort of cordon off and resolve tensions on these issues,” said Mariano.

07:00
Asian session review: the dollar declined against the euro and pound

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
01:30AustraliaTrade Balance May7.8398.025
06:30SwitzerlandConsumer Price Index (MoM) June0.0%0.1%0.0%
06:30SwitzerlandConsumer Price Index (YoY)June-1.3%-1.2%-1.3%


In today's Asian trading, the us dollar declined against the euro and pound and changed little against the yen.

The FOMC meeting minutes remained in the focus of market participants' attention. The minutes reported that many of the FOMC members said that at future meetings, the Fed could give more details about its plans for future monetary policy decisions.

In addition, Fed leaders discussed in detail the possibility of using a monetary policy tool last used during world war II - controlling the yield curve. The instrument, which is used, in particular, in Japan and Australia, assumes that the Central Bank maintains the yield of Treasury bonds at target levels by buying and selling them on the market.

However, almost all participants in the June FOMC meeting said that many questions remain about the costs and benefits of such an approach.

On Thursday, traders expect the release of data from the US Department of labor on the country's unemployment rate in June and the number of Americans who first applied for unemployment benefits last week.

The pound rose against the US dollar. Yesterday's data on the British manufacturing index continued to support the pound. In addition, investors continue to monitor the next round of negotiations between London and Brussels on a trade agreement after the UK leaves the EU.

The ICE Dollar index, which shows the value of the us dollar against six major world currencies, fell by 0.18% compared to the previous day.

06:46
Swiss consumer prices remained stable in June

According to the report from Federal Statistical Office, the consumer price index (CPI) remained stable in June 2020 compared with the previous month, remaining at 101.4 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was –1.3% compared with the same month of the previous year.

The stability of the index compared with the previous month is the result of opposing trends that counterbalanced each other overall. Prices for international package holidays, fruiting vegetables and those for heating oil increased. In contrast, prices for air transport and hotel accommodation decreased.

In June 2020, the Swiss Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) stood at 100.53 points (base 2015 = 100). This corresponds to a rate of change of –0.1% compared with the previous month and of –1.3% compared with the same month the previous year. Due to the effects of the pandemic, the same missing price imputation techniques used for the CPI were introduced for the HICP. The HICP is a supplementary indicator for inflation based on a harmonised method across EU member countries. It enables inflation in Switzerland to be compared with that of European countries.

06:32
Switzerland: Consumer Price Index, June 0.0% MoM (forecast 0.1%)
06:31
Switzerland: Consumer Price Index, June -1.3% (YoY) (forecast -1.2%)
06:17
Fed's Bullard warns of a financial crisis amid pandemic

Reuters reports that St. Louis Federal Reserve president James Bullard told the Financial Times that a wave of "substantial bankruptcies" triggered by the coronavirus pandemic could lead to a financial crisis.

"Without more granular risk management on the part of the health policy, we could get a wave of substantial bankruptcies and (that) could feed into a financial crisis," he told the newspaper in an interview on Wednesday.

"I think it's probably prudent to keep our lending facilities in place for now, even though its true that liquidity has improved dramatically in financial markets."

06:00
EUR/USD likely to trade between 1.1170 and 1.1380 – UOB

FXStreet reports that the outlook on EUR/USD has improved somewhat and is now seen trading within the 1.1170/1.1380 range in the next weeks.

24-hour view: “EUR dipped below the bottom of our expected 1.1200/1.1270 range yesterday (low of 1.1183) before snapping back up to 1.1274. Despite the rapid bounce, upward momentum has hardly improved. However, there is room for EUR to edge nearer to 1.1290. For today, 1.1330 is unlikely to be challenged. Support is at 1.1225 followed by 1.1200.”

Next 1-3 weeks: “Looking back, we called for a short-term top on 12 Jun when EUR was trading at 1.1280 and expected EUR to trade between 1.1170 and 1.1380. When EUR moved towards 1.1170, we highlighted that EUR “has to close below 1.1170 before a more sustained weakness can be expected”. The rapid manner by which EUR rebounded from 1.1183 yesterday (01 Jul) suggests that EUR is not ready to move below 1.1170. To look at it another way, EUR could continue to trade between 1.1170 and 1.1380 for a while more.”

05:54
Options levels on thursday, July 2, 2020 EURUSD GBPUSD

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1401 (1449)

$1.1352 (2323)

$1.1307 (1917)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1264

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1238 (1207)

$1.1198 (929)

$1.1150 (1490)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date July, 2 is 58789 contracts (according to data from July, 1) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1100 (2452);


GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2650 (672)

$1.2601 (943)

$1.2553 (376)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2486

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2438 (1302)

$1.2397 (696)

$1.2349 (834)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date July, 2 is 16503 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2800 (1689);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date July, 2 is 19456 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2550 (1473);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.18 versus 1.18 from the previous trading day according to data from July, 1

 

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

02:30
Commodities. Daily history for Wednesday, July 1, 2020
Raw materials Closed Change, %
Brent 41.83 0.89
Silver 17.98 -1.05
Gold 1769.681 -0.61
Palladium 1915.74 -0.79
01:31
Australia: Trade Balance , May 8.025 B (forecast 9)
00:30
Stocks. Daily history for Wednesday, July 1, 2020
Index Change, points Closed Change, %
NIKKEI 225 -166.41 22121.73 -0.75
KOSPI -1.63 2106.7 -0.08
ASX 200 36.5 5934.4 0.62
FTSE 100 -11.78 6157.96 -0.19
DAX -50.36 12260.57 -0.41
CAC 40 -9.05 4926.94 -0.18
Dow Jones -77.91 25734.97 -0.3
S&P 500 15.57 3115.86 0.5
NASDAQ Composite 95.86 10154.63 0.95
00:30
Schedule for today, Thursday, July 2, 2020
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
01:30 Australia Trade Balance May 8.8 9
06:30 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) June 0.0% 0.1%
06:30 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) June -1.3% -1.2%
09:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) May -4.5% -4.8%
09:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index, MoM May -2% -0.5%
09:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate May 7.3% 7.7%
12:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims June 19522 19000
12:30 U.S. Manufacturing Payrolls June 225 306
12:30 U.S. Average workweek June 34.7 34.5
12:30 U.S. Government Payrolls June -585  
12:30 U.S. Average hourly earnings June -1% -0.7%
12:30 U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate June 60.8%  
12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims June 1480 1355
12:30 U.S. Private Nonfarm Payrolls June 3094 2900
12:30 Canada Trade balance, billions May -3.25 -3
12:30 U.S. International Trade, bln May -49.4 -53
12:30 U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls June 2509 3000
12:30 U.S. Unemployment Rate June 13.3% 12.3%
13:00 Eurozone ECB's Yves Mersch Speaks    
14:00 U.S. Factory Orders May -13% 8.7%
17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count July 188  
22:30 Australia AiG Performance of Construction Index June 24.9  
00:15
Currencies. Daily history for Wednesday, July 1, 2020
Pare Closed Change, %
AUDUSD 0.69109 0.15
EURJPY 120.877 -0.31
EURUSD 1.1249 0.16
GBPJPY 134.038 0.17
GBPUSD 1.2475 0.64
NZDUSD 0.64816 0.46
USDCAD 1.35821 0.08
USDCHF 0.94532 -0.17
USDJPY 107.441 -0.48

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