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02.05.2011
18:57
EUR/USD eases

EUR/USD eases under $1.4860, where light bids were mentioned before. Rate weakens amid a backdrop of softer oil prices perhaps sufficient catalyst amid thin conditions. Below here, area of morning lows should offer next layer of support with bids likely in the region of the overnight low at $1.4760.


18:43
Dow +10.41 at 12820.79, Nasdaq -1.99 at 2871.55, S&P -0.03 at 1363.61

The stock market continues to probe highs.
Financials and tech stocks were primary sources of weakness a couple of hours ago, but they have managed to stabilize. In the meantime, energy stocks have moved deeper into negative territory, so that the sector now trades with a 1.0% loss. Energy's downturn comes even though oil prices have successfully trimmed morning losses so that they are unchanged for the session at $113.55 per barrel.

18:22
ECB, Constancio: Says growth in EMU as a whole will be above 2010.
  • reiterates can only take decisions based on average EMY inflation;
  • debt crisis hasn't derailed recovery;
  • Greece can try to strengthen program credibility;
  • privatizations have to be implemented, markets must be convinced;
  • privatization will have big fiscal impact;
  • core inflation is a good leading indicator of inflation but not advisable for it to be target;
  • EMU rates still very low by historical standards;
  • no decision to rusk into a series of hikes.

 

18:19
ECB, Constancio: Says growth in EMU as a whole will be above 2010.
  • reiterates can only take decisions based on average EMY inflation;
  • debt crisis hasn't derailed recovery;
  • Greece can try to strengthen program credibility;
  • privatizations have to be implemented, markets must be convinced;
  • privatization will have big fiscal impact;
  • core inflation is a good leading indicator of inflation but not advisable for it to be target;
  • EMU rates still very low by historical standards;
  • no decision to rusk into a series of hikes.
17:57
USD/CAD holds tight

USD/CAD holds at C$0.9489 area after stalling earlier at C$0.9500. Area of C$0.9460 said to hold some light stops, offers expected on any rally to C$0.9530.


17:43
Dow +3.48 at 12813.98, Nasdaq -7.57 at 2865.97, S&P -0.86 at 1362.75

Modest buying this morning took the stock market to its best level in almost three years.
Stocks started the session in higher ground. Traders' attention was mostly tuned into news that U.S. forces killed terrorist leader Osama bin Laden.
The news was widely cited as a cause for an early morning drop in oil prices to about $111 per barrel, but it has since worked its way up to $113.85 per barrel. Part of oil's rebound is owed to another drop in the dollar.

  

17:21
US focus: Dollar drops on prospects for interest rates

The dollar fell for a 10th straight day, the longest slump in 17 years, after slower manufacturing growth reinforced speculation the Federal Reserve will maintain record-low rates.
Dollar index advanced earlier after the U.S. said al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden had been killed.
The euro gained to a 16-month high before the European Central Bank, which raised interest rates last month, meets this week. The Fed kept its rates on hold last week.
“You are now getting more interest-rate differentials between the euro and the dollar, and that’s going to continue,” said Fabian Eliasson at Mizuho Financial Group Inc.. “Unless the U.S. changes its policy, you’re still going to be leaning toward a weaker dollar.”
The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index was at 60.4 for April, slipping from 61.2 the previous month. Manufacturing expanded for a 21st straight month.
“Even though we’re still seeing fairly stronger growth in the U.S., it’s not as strong as it has been,” said David Mann at Standard Chartered Plc.
A widening interest-rate gap between America and the rest of the world may mean no rebound this year for the dollar.
The Fed is expected to hold its benchmark interest rate at zero to 0.25% benchmark interest rate, where it’s been since December 2008, until the first quarter of 2012, according to the weighted average forecast.
While a weaker dollar may signal waning confidence in the U.S., it also may help President Barack Obama reach his goal of doubling exports by 2015 and reducing unemployment.
The yen snapped two days of gains versus the euro after Obama said bin Laden was killed after a firefight at a house in Pakistan. Bin Laden was the architect of a radical Islamist movement that killed almost 3,000 people in the U.S. on Sept. 11, 2001, and recast global security and politics.



16:56
ECB: Indicators point to rising commodity prices over medium-term
  • Second round inflation effects must be avoided
  • Main scenario for EMU financial stability is broadly favorable
  • Uncertainty surrounding financial stability outlook remains high

 

16:42
EUR/USD retreats to $1.4870 after challenged $1.4900. Spots remain above the figure.
15:49
Analysts about ISM

HFE ests mfg ISM will dip to 57 in the next few mos as commodities prices rise.
HSBC says a high ISM points to a Q2 growth rebound.
Pierpont Securities says the data give not much evidence that Japan is hurting mfg, good news for the US economy.

15:16
Nomura on ISM

Nomura economist David Ressler says Apr mfg ISM fell slightly to 60.4 but the index "has topped 60 for four straight months, averaging 60.9, the highest over any comparable span since March 1984."

14:58
USD/JPY weakens

USD/JPY weakens to Y81.10 amid dollar weakness elsewhere. Rate holds a bit higher the overnight low just below Y81.00 where bids mentioned. Risk may be for the usual collection of stops in place just below the overnight low but bids possible sub Y80.70 where a layer of interest was reported Friday.


14:49
Dow +25.84 at 12836.12, Nasdaq +1.73 at 2875.27, S&P +2.28 at 1365.89

The blue chips have eased back a bit in recent trade, but in general they are still up with modest gains this morning.
Health care stocks and consumer discretionary stocks are this morning's top performers. Both of the two sectors are up 0.6%. Harley-Davidson (HOG 37.84, +0.58), which announced early this morning that it will increase its quarterly dividend by 25% to $0.125 per share, is a primary leader among consumer discretionary plays. Cephalon (CEPH 80.96, +3.94) is a leader among health care issues following news that it will be acquired by Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA 47.09, +1.36) for $81.50 per share, which is a premium of almost 6% over its closing price from last week.

14:22
US: Apr mfg ISM text:

"The recent trend of rapid growth in the manufacturing sector continued in April as the PMI registered above 60 percent for the fourth consecutive month. The New Orders and Production Indexes continue to drive the PMI, as they have both exceeded 60 percent for five consecutive months. Manufacturing employment appears to have developed significant momentum, as the Employment Index readings for the first four months of 2011 are the highest readings in the last 38 years. Inventory growth also took place in April after two months of destocking; however, the inventory restocking would appear to be necessitated by the strong performance in new orders. While the manufacturing sector is definitely performing above most expectations so far in 2011, manufacturers are experiencing significant cost pressures from commodities and other inputs." 17/18 are reporting growth. WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING: "Rapidly rising raw material costs putting extreme pressure on profits." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products) "Plastic resin product prices are climbing fast."

14:05
US: Apr mfg ISM data:
  • prices paid 85.5;
  • new orders 61.7 vs 63.3;
  • employment 62.7 vs 63.0;
  • supplier deliveries 60.2 vs 63.1.
14:01
US: March construction spending +1.4%
14:01
US: Apr mfg ISM 60.4 vs 61.2.
13:48
The Institute for Supply Management's April manufacturing index, and construction spending figures due out at 14:00 GMT.

Economists expect the April ISM index will fall to a reading of 58.5 from March's 61.2, while construction spending figures are expected to fall 0.5%.

13:26
Before the bell:


U.S. stocks were poised for a higher open Monday, as investors cheer news that Osama bin Laden was killed by U.S. forces.
The founder and leader of al Qaeda, Osama bin Laden, was killed by U.S. forces in Abbottabad, north of Pakistani capital of Islamabad.
Meanwhile, oil prices retreated with crude for June delivering sliding $1.37, or more than 1%, to $112.56 a barrel.
Gold prices also backed off their highs Monday. Gold futures for June delivery fell $5.70 to $1,550.70 an ounce, after hitting an intraday high of $1,577.40 an ounce.
World markets:

Economy: Wall Street will get the Institute for Supply Management's April manufacturing index, as well as construction spending figures from the Commerce Department, both out at 14:00 GMT.
Economists expect the April ISM index will fall to a reading of 58.5 from March's 61.2, while construction spending figures are expected to fall 0.5%.
Companies: The Nasdaq-100 index will be rebalanced to reduce the weight of Apple's stock by about 40%. Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) currently represents 20.5% of the index. After the rebalancing, Apple's weight will be reduced to 12.3%.
Shares of TiVo (TIVO) were up almost 18% in premarket trade after DISH Network Corporation (DISH, Fortune 500) and EchoStar Corporation (SATS) announced they will pay TiVo $500 million to settle an ongoing patent dispute.
Separately, DISH reported earnings per share of $1.22 for the quarter ended in March, easily topping forecasts. Also, DISH said it gained approximately 58,000 net subscribers during the quarter. Shares of DISH were up almost 8% in premarket trade.
The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury dipped, pushing the yield up to 3.31%

13:17
Goldman on US housing

homebuilding outlook says hsg remains weak but mutilfamily is about to recover due to fall in homeownership and boom for rental properties. "In contrast, the single-family housing market remains far from equilibrium... we estimate that the single-family vacancy rate now stands at 13.4%."

12:35
Canada Industrial Prices +0.9% In March
Raw Materials Prices +5.7% In March
12:22
European session:

The Dollar Index snapped a nine-day decline, while oil dropped and equities climbed after President Barack Obama said al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden was killed by U.S. operatives in Pakistan.
The Swiss franc weakened versus a majority of its most- traded peers. The yen snapped two-day gains versus the euro and the dollar following reports of bin Laden’s death and data that showed European manufacturing accelerated.
Oil futures fell 2.2 percent to $111.46 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after President Obama said Bin Laden was killed by a team of U.S. operatives after a firefight at a house in Pakistan.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares added 0.7 percent, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.3 percent and futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index increased 0.7 percent. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose almost two basis points.
A gauge of manufacturing in the 17-nation euro area rose to 58 from 57.5 in March, London-based Markit Economics said today. That’s above an initial estimate of 57.7 on April 19. A reading above 50 indicates growth.

EUR/USD: eased to $1.4760, before gained back above $1.4800 to $1.4850 as the pair reqacts to the strong data and pares some of the greenback's Osama-related gains from earlier in the session. Modest offers seen at $1.4875/80. Support back at session low $1.4760.
GBP/USD: found the base around $1.6640, before bounced back to middle of the day's range  $1.6700.
USD/JPY: rose Y81.70, before eased to Y81.50.
11:38
Greek FinMin: there must be no debt restructuring
10:36
European shares hit a two-month high

European shares hit a two-month high in holiday-thinned trade on Monday on optimism the earnings season will stay strong in the near-term and in a knee-jerk reaction to news al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden was killed.

09:48
EUR/USD back above $1.4800

Pair breaks back above $1.4800 to $1.4850 as the pair reqacts to the strong data and pares some of the greenback's Osama-related gains from earlier in the session. Modest offers seen at $1.4875/80. Support back at session low $1.4760.


09:28
FTSE Eurofirst +0.23% 1,160, CAC +0.42% 4,124, DAX +0.86% 7,579
09:26
New BBK chief Weidmann: need to return to monetary policy normalcy
  • To continue with Bundesbank's clear stability orientation
09:07
Asian session: The yen fell

Data:
00:30 Australia TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (Apr) 3.8%
00:30 Australia TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (Apr) 0.6%
01:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (Mar) 0.3%
01:30 Australia House Price Index (QoQ) (Q1) 0.7%
01:30 Australia House Price Index (YoY) (Q1) -0.2%

The yen fell against most of its major counterparts and the dollar strengthened after President Barack Obama said al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden had been killed by the U.S. military in Pakistan.
Japan’s currency snapped two-day gains versus the euro and the dollar as Asian stocks rose after Obama delivered the news to America. 
The New Zealand dollar dropped as Obama’s announcement pushed up Treasury yields, narrowing the rate advantage offered in the South Pacific nation. 
Australia’s dollar declined as the nation’s central bank is forecast to keep its benchmark interest rate at 4.75 percent tomorrow, according to economists.

EUR/USD: the pair decreased in around $1,4800.
GBP/USD: the pair decreased below a mark $1,6800.
USD/JPY: the pair become stronger in around Y81,50.

08:42
Stocks: Weekly review

Asian stocks added to recent gains this week, largely thanks to Tokyo’s Nikkei Average hitting its best level since last month’s earthquake as corporate results impressed.
The level of earnings being reported for the first quarter showed how much progress many Japanese companies had been making ahead the March 11 natural disaster. Investors were largely undaunted when, on Wednesday, Standard & Poor’s, the rating agency, lowered its long-term outlook on Japanese sovereign debt to negative from stable.
The Bank of Japan also left its policy unchanged at Thursday’s meeting.
The Nikkei 225 Average ended its week on Thursday at 9849.74, up 1.7% over its four trading days.
Sony had a tough week after it admitted the reason it had closed down its online gaming network was because the personal details of more than 70m users had been hacked. The company fell 8.7% over the week.
Canon was one of the Nikkei’s best performing stocks with shares up 8.6% over the week.
Most of the region’s other indices fell over the week, however. Chinese and Hong Kong stocks were hit by ongoing fears about the future of monetary policy from Beijing. The People’s Bank of China has already imposed four 25 basis point interest rate increases since October and has also raised several times the rate of reserves required to be held by banks. Investors are also wary of a possible revaluation of the renminbi.
Over the week, the Shanghai Composite fell 3.2% to 2,912.14 and the Hang Seng lost 1.7% to 23,720.81.
Germany’s Xetra Dax index climbed to a three year high on Friday at 7,514.69, before closing up 3 per cent on the week at 7,294.58. The FTSE Eurofirst index itself, however, climbed 1.4 per cent over the week to 1,156.81.
Ericsson topped the premier league of European equities this week, beating a horde of other stocks just below it which also reported successful first quarters. The Swedish telecoms equipment and networks group climbed 16.4 per cent to SKr91.75 over the week after first-quarter sales soared.
Carmakers enjoyed strong quarterly performances also. Germany’s Volkswagen gained 8.7 per cent over the week to €120.40 after first-quarter sales and operating profit beat forecasts.
Domestic rival and major VW shareholder Porsche climbed 10.6 per cent to €48.93 after it too saw improving sales from emerging markets, particularly from China.
French carmaker Renault reported forecast-beating results but warned of slower production in the coming months as a result of pressures on the supply chain. The shares, however, climbed 7.1 per cent to €41.14.
UBS, the Swiss bank, rose 4.3 per cent over the week to SFr17.29 after reporting first-quarter net new money inflows into its wealth management business of SFr11.1bn, beating market forecasts of SFr7.9bn. The bank said it was not deviating from its current targets immediately, but said it expected “relatively good inflows over the coming quarters”.
Deutsche Bank, meanwhile, climbed 7.3 per cent to €44.10 after posting a first-quarter net profit of €2.1bn, well in excess of the €1.8bn expected by the market and its second-best quarterly profit.
Wall Street has seen strong gains this week as first-quarter earnings have largely beaten forecasts. So far, out of the 298 companies that have reported 77 per cent have beaten analysts’ expectations, ahead of the 73 per cent beat-rate in the last quarter.
Wall Street paused for breath Friday after the multiyear highs reached in the previous session following mixed results from the likes of Caterpillar, Research in Motion, Merck and Microsoft.
Caterpillar, the world’s largest earthmoving equipment maker by revenues, stormed past expectations reporting a nearly 60 per cent jump in revenues and a fivefold increase in profits. The stock was up 2.7 per cent to $115.62.
But shares in Research in Motion plunged 13.9 per cent after the BlackBerry maker issued a surprise profit warning. The Canadian company said it expected profits this quarter of $1.30-$1.37 a share, down sharply from the $1.47-$1.55 a share it was forecasting last month.
Elsewhere in the technology sector, Microsoft lost 0.6 per cent after reporting that its Windows operating system had suffered a rare slip in revenues.
Elsewhere on Wall Street Merck, the US pharmaceutical company, reported a tripling in its first-quarter net income thanks to growing demand for its drugs to treat diabetes and HIV.
Chevron reported first-quarter earnings up 36 per cent thanks to the higher oil price. Net income for the oil group rose to $6.21bn, or $3.09 per share, which were ahead of analysts’ expectations.
Chevron was one of the many oil majors to have reported strong results this season. This week, ExxonMobil, the world’s largest company by market capitalisation, reported its best quarterly performance since 2008 when oil prices were last above $100 a barrel.

08:02
European Monetary Union Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (Apr) 58.0
07:57
Germany Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (Apr) 62.0
07:53
FOREX: weekly review

The dollar fell again this week after the Federal Reserve confirmed market suspicions that it would not be ready to tighten monetary policy for some time to come.
Extending its run of weekly losses to five – the dollar index, which tracks the US unit’s performance against a basket of other major currencies, fell 3.8 per cent in April, hitting a three year low of 72.83. The trade-weighted index has now fallen 7.6 per cent since the beginning of the year and has not enjoyed a positive month since November.
Following the Fed meeting on Wednesday, when chairman Ben Bernanke confirmed the federal funds rate would remain at exceptionally low levels for an extended period, first-quarter GDP on Thursday did little to counter expectations that the central bank would continue its easy monetary policy for the foreseeable future. Growth in the first three months of the year came in at an annual 1.8 per cent, down from 3.1 per cent in the final quarter of 2011.
This combination of low interest rates and steady, but unspectacular growth, proved to be a perfect mix to feed risk appetite.
The Swiss franc pushed to a record high against the dollar at SFr0.8666 this week. Traditionally sought out during periods of uncertainty, the Swissie began its kick higher at the height of the eurozone debt crisis in June last year. In recent weeks, however, strong economic data and robust corporate performances have driven the franc further still. It climbed nearly 2 per cent to SFr0.8683 versus the dollar this week.
One of the best performances over the five sessions was from the euro, as concerns over the debt crisis faded. “Provided the European debt crisis remains confined to Greece, Ireland and Portugal, and the spillover to Spain is minor, the divergent monetary policy stances between the Fed and European Central Bank will remain the main driver,” said Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman.
The euro climbed 0.9 per cent to £0.8908 versus the pound and gained 1.1 per cent to Y120.10 on the yen.
Sterling was buoyed against the dollar and the yen after the UK economy was shown on Wednesday to have returned to growth. Although at just 0.5 per cent, many called it a pitiable return to growth, investors were at least glad that the economy had not gone back into recession. The pound gained 0.2 per cent to Y135.93 against the yen.


07:45
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3:Y82.80 (Apr 27 high) 
Resistance 2: Y82.30 (Apr 28 high) 
Resistance 1:Y81.70 (session high) 
Current price: Y81.52
Support 1:Y81.00 (session low, Apr 29 low)    
Support 2:Y80.70 (around of Mar 18-24 low)  
Support 3:Y79.80 (Mar 17 low)  
Comments: the pair grown. The nearest resistance - Y81.70. Above  growth is possible to Y82.30. The nearest support - Y81.00. Below losses are possible to Y80.70. 

07:18
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.8880 (Apr 22 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.8760 (Apr 28 high, resistance line from Apr 6)
Resistance 1: Chf0.8700 (session high)
Current price: Chf0.8689
Support 1: Chf0.8630 (Apr 29 low, session low)
Support 2: Chf0.8600 (psychological mark)
Support 3: Chf0.8500 (psychological mark)
Comments: the pair grown. The nearest resistance - Chf0.8700. Above is located Chf0.8760. The nearest support - Chf0,8630. Below loss may extend to Chf0.8600. 

07:18
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.8880 (Apr 22 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.8760 (Apr 28 high, resistance line from Apr 6)
Resistance 1: Chf0.8700 (session high)
Current price: Chf0.8689
Support 1: Chf0.8630 (Apr 29 low, session low)
Support 2: Chf0.8600 (psychological mark)
Support 3: Chf0.8500 (psychological mark)
Comments: the pair grown. The nearest resistance - Chf0.8700. Above is located Chf0.8760. The nearest support - Chf0,8630. Below loss may extend to Chf0.8600. 

06:51
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.7040 (Aug'2009 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.6880 (Nov'2009 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6740 (Apr 28-29 high)
Current price: $1.6650
Support 1 : $1.6625 (Apr 28-29 low, 38,2 % FIBO $1,6430-$ 1,6740)
Support 2 : $1.6580 (50,0% FIBO $1,6430-$ 1,6740)
Support 3 : $1.6550 (61,8% FIBO $1,6430-$ 1,6740)
Comments: the pair decreased. The nearest resistance - around $1.6740. Above growth is possble to $1.6880. The nearest support $1.6625. Below is possible testings of around $1.6580. 

06:18
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.5140 (Nov-Dec'2009 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.5000 (psychological mark)
Resistance 1: $ 1.4880 (session high, Apr 28-29 high)
Current price: $1.4780
Support 1 : $1.4760 (Apr 28 low, session low, support line from Apr 18)
Support 2 : $1.4630 (Apr 27 low)
Support 3 : $1.4490 (Apr 26 low)
Comments: the pair decreased. The nearest resistance - $1.4880. Above growth possible to $1,5000. The nearest support $1,4760. Below losses  are possible to $1.4630.

06:06
Schedule for today, Monday, May 02 2011:

07:55 Germany  PMI (April) seasonally adjusted 61.7 60.9
08:00 EU(17) PMI (April) 57.7 57.5
14:00 USA ISM Mfg PMI (April) 60.0 61.2
14:00 USA Construction spending (March) 0.2% -1.4%

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