CFD Markets Analysis: News and forecasts for 2 January 2025

23:57

NZD/USD holds below 0.5600 on stronger US Dollar, eyes on US PMI data NZDUSD

NZD/USD trades on a negative note near 0.5590 in Friday’s early Asian session.
US weekly Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 211K vs. 222K expected.
Trump's tariffs and concerns about recovery in China’s economy undermine the China-proxy Kiwi.

The NZD/USD pair remains on the defensive around 0.5590 during the early Asian session on Friday, pressured by the firmer Greenback. Investors brace for the release of the US December ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which is due later on Friday.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the US Dollar's value relative to its most significant trading partners' currencies, climbed to near 109.50, its strongest since November 2022.

The optimism around the US economy and the cautious stance of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could underpin the USD in the near term. The US central bank indicated that it will be more cautious in cutting interest rates as inflation remains stubbornly above its 2% target and the economy remains robust.

Data released by the US Department of Labor (DOL) on Thursday showed that the Initial Jobless Claim for the week ending December 28 declined to 211K, compared to the previous week's print of 220K (revised from 219K). This reading came in below the market consensus of 222K.

Higher tariffs threatened by US President-elect Donald Trump and instability in the Chinese economy could weigh on the China-proxy New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as China is a major trading partner for New Zealand. The latest Chinese Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) showed that the country’s manufacturing sector grew in December but at a slower-than-expected pace. This reading raised concerns over a slowing economic recovery in the world's second-largest economy and might create a headwind for the Kiwi.

New Zealand Dollar FAQs

What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar?

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.

How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar?

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.

How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar?

Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.

How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar?

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

23:15

GBP/USD plunges to new lows to kick off the new trading year GBPUSD

GBP/USD soured on Thursday, dipping below 1.2400 for the first time since April.
January just started but Cable is already on pace to end the month on a sour note.
US PMI figures on Friday will round out the week’s economic calendar.

GBP/USD struck a soft chord on Thursday, dumping over one percent on the outset of the new trading season and piercing through the 1.2400 handle for the first time in almost ten months. Market volumes remain thin following the midweek New Year’s holiday, but the orders coming through are on a decidedly risk-off stance.

Economic data on the UK side remains strictly low-tier through the remainder of the first trading week of 2025, leaving Cable traders to grapple with a fresh update in US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures slated for Friday. UK Money Supply and Mortgage Approvals are due to release early Friday as well, but the low-impact figures are unlikely to move the markets.

US ISM Manufacturing PMI survey results for December are expected to hold steady, forecast to print at a contractionary 48.4, in line with the preliminary reading. Despite a slight uptick MoM, US businesses continue to have a tepid outlook on activity in the first quarter of 2025 as domestic demand cools off.

The key takeaway for Cable traders will be the rate differential through the first half of 2025. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is slated to deliver far fewer rates cuts through the year than previously expected. The Fed itself only expects to deliver a total of two 25 bps rate trims through 2025, as noted in the US central bank’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) in December.

GBP/USD price forecast

GBP/USD took a fresh leg lower, falling back below 1.2400 and the pair is poised for a further plunge back into the 1.2300 handle. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is accelerating into the bearish side below 1.2700 after crossing through the long-run 200-day EMA near 1.2780, which will put further downside pressure on price action in the near term.

GBP/USD daily chart

Pound Sterling FAQs

What is the Pound Sterling?

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling?

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

How does economic data influence the value of the Pound?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound?

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

23:04

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD flat lines above $2,650 ahead of US PMI release

Gold price trades flat around $2,660 in Friday’s early Asian session.
Safe-haven demand and buying by global central banks lift the Gold price.
The expectation of a slower pace of the US interest rate reduction might cap the upside for the yellow metal.

The Gold price (XAU/USD) consolidates its gains near $2,660 after reaching a two-week high during the early Asian session on Friday. The safe-haven flows amid the geopolitical tensions provide some support to the precious metal. The US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for December will take center stage later on Friday. Also, the Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin is scheduled to speak.

Russia carried out a drone attack on Kyiv early Wednesday, causing damage in two districts, while Israel targeted a Gaza City neighbourhood, per Reuters. Investors will closely monitor the development surrounding geopolitical risks. Any signs of escalating tensions in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine could boost the Gold price, a traditional safe-haven asset.

Central bank purchasing activities could contribute to the yellow metal’s upside. Global central banks bought 694 tonnes of gold during the first nine months of 2024. “We think central bank interest will be a strong base for the buying next year,” noted Henrik Marx, global head of trading at Heraeus Precious Metals, which expected that gold could reach highs of $2,950 per troy ounce in 2025.

On the other hand, the slower pace of further rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might weigh on the non-yielding asset. The US central bank decided to lower the interest rates in December but signalled that borrowing costs will fall more slowly than previously expected this year.

Gold FAQs

Why do people invest in Gold?

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Who buys the most Gold?

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

How is Gold correlated with other assets?

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

What does the price of Gold depend on?

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

22:56

AUD/USD hung out to dry on familiar low end AUDUSD

AUD/USD continues to keep a tight grip on 0.6200.
Market sentiment drifted in favor of safe havens to start 2025.
Aussie traders await further hints from RBA on policy direction before picking a side.

AUD/USD tried and failed to spark a bull run during the first trading session of 2025, rising on thin volumes before collapsing back into the 0.6200 handle in the later hours of the day. A broad-market push into the safe haven Greenback kept the Aussie pair on the defensive, and the AUD is mired in congestion on the weak side of two-year lows.

The economic data calendar is largely dark on the Antipoodean side for the rest of the week, leaving investors to grapple with US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures due on Friday and a cloudy picture on the Aussie’s interest rate differential outlook.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is poised to make fewer interest rate cuts through 2025 than previously expected, keeping the US Dollar well-bid across the board alongside a general malaise that has struck market participants in recent months. Market flows are still constrained by the New Year’s holidays that shuttered markets during the midweek market session, but a wobbly stance to fresh volumes at the outset of the new trading season bode poorly for near-term gains for the Aussie.

US ISM Manufacturing PMI survey results on Friday are expected to hold flat at a contractionary 48.2.

AUD/USD price forecast

AUD/USD bulls will be look for a fresh breakout to the topside in the coming days as bids appear to be pumping the brakes on further declines. However, a fresh round of short-selling isn’t entirely off the table, especially if the bottom falls out of near-term price action and sends bids below last week’s floor set near 0.6180.

AUD/USD daily chart

Australian Dollar FAQs

What key factors drive the Australian Dollar?

One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.

How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar?

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.

How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar?

China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.

How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar?

Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar?

The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

19:59

Forex Today: Markets kick off new trading year with a fresh bid in the Greenback

The US Dollar rose to the top of the forex pile on the first day of trading in 2025 as broader markets keep one foot firmly planted in the safe haven currency. Traders may not be the biggest fans of the US Dollar in policy terms, but the USD is still the de facto winner by default amid a global backdrop of wobbly economic conditions.

Here’s what you need to know heading into Friday, January 3

The US Dollar Index (DXY) rallied hard to celebrate the kickoff of the 2025 trading season, rising roughly eight-tenths of one percent and tapping the 109.50 level for the first time since since November of 2022. The only meaningful data of note on Friday’s economic calendar is US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey results, which are expected to hold steady at a contractionary 48.4 for December. A better-than-expected print in weekly US Initial Jobless Claims also helped provide macro support flows in the Greenback.

EUR/USD is already down over 1% in January, tumbling to 1.0250 and slipping into two-year lows for the first trading day of the new year. Hopes for the Euro remain tepid and investors broadly expect the interest rate differential between the EUR and the US Dollar to continue increasing through the first half of 2025. Mid-tier German unemployment figures are due early Friday.

GBP/USD stumbled on Thursday, falling 1.15% on the day and cleanly breaking through the 1.2400 handle, hitting a nine-month low in the process. Cable is set to play second fiddle to other, more important market-moving figures with the UK largely absent from the economic calendar over the next week.

AUD/USD continues to hold on the low end with price action grappling with the 0.6200 region as the new trading year gets underway. The Aussie looked for a technical recovery on the day, but broad-market flows into the Greenback kept AUD/USD pinned near 27-month lows.

USD/JPY is headed back toward familiar highs near 158.00 after an intraday recovery on Thursday. The Dollar-Yen pairing initially opened up 2025’s trading with a downside push, but the US Dollar’s firm bidding strength from across the wider market helped to reverse course and keep USD/JPY near six-month highs.

Economic Indicator

Initial Jobless Claims

The Initial Jobless Claims released by the US Department of Labor is a measure of the number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance. A larger-than-expected number indicates weakness in the US labor market, reflects negatively on the US economy, and is negative for the US Dollar (USD). On the other hand, a decreasing number should be taken as bullish for the USD.

Why it matters to traders?

Every Thursday, the US Department of Labor publishes the number of previous week’s initial claims for unemployment benefits in the US. Since this reading could be highly volatile, investors may pay closer attention to the four-week average. A downtrend is seen as a sign of an improving labour market and could have a positive impact on the USD’s performance against its rivals and vice versa.

Interest rates FAQs

What are interest rates?

Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.

How do interest rates impact currencies?

Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.

How do interest rates influence the price of Gold?

Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.

What is the Fed Funds rate?

The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.

19:15

Canadian Dollar stuck near familiar lows despite PMI beat

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) remained swamped against the US Dollar on Thursday.
Canadian PMI data from December beat expectations but failed to spark a Loonie rally.
US PMI data on Friday will be the figure to beat for a risk appetite upswing.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) remained stuck on the low side against the Greenback on Thursday, with Loonie traders kicking off the new year in a tepid stance. After shedding nearly eight percent top-to-bottom through the last quarter of 2024, the Loonie is struggling to find a technical recovery as market expectations weigh on the CAD.

Canadian Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey results from December beat the street, ticking higher when median market forecasts expected a downturn, but the mid-tier figure was unable to spark a relief rally in the battered Loonie. Markets are churning as investors warm up for the 2025 trading season, and overall market volumes remain tight following the midweek New Year’s holiday on both sides of the 49th parallel.

Daily digest market movers: Loonie holds on the low side as new year kicks off

Canadian Manufacturing PMI survey for December climbed to 52.2, beating the forecast decline to 51.9 from the previous 52.0.
Despite the data beat, the Loonie remains underbid near multi-year lows.
US Initial Jobless Claims cooled to 221K for the week ended December 27, undercutting the forecast uptick to 222K from the previous week’s 220K, helping to support the US Dollar.
Canadian data is wrapped up for the week.
US ISM PMI figures are due on Friday to round out the trading week, expected to hold flat in December at a contractionary 48.4.

Canadian Dollar price forecast: Loonie stuck waiting for technical correction

The Canadian Dollar remains in a firmly bearish technical stance heading into 2025, with the Loonie stuck near multi-year lows against the US Dollar. The USD/CAD chart continues to grind through chart paper near 1.4400, keeping price action swamped near the pair’s highest non-pandemic prices since 2016.

One-sided bearish action in the Loonie has kept USD/CAD bolstered into highs in conjunction with a broad-market rally in the Greenback, and CAD bidders are struggling to find their feet. However, failure to continue pushing higher from here could give Loonie bulls a fresh spark to turn bids around and force USD/CAD back down to the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.4135.

USD/CAD daily chart

Canadian Dollar FAQs

What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar?

The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.

How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar?

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.

How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar?

The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar?

While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.

How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar?

Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

18:04

USD/JPY Forecast: Buyers aim to challenge the December high at 158.07 USDJPY

Tepid Chinese data weighed on the market’s mood at the beginning of the day.
Expectations for higher US Treasury yields undermine demand for the JPY.
USD/JPY trades near the multi-month high posted in December and aims to break higher.

The USD/JPY pair traded as high as 157.84 on Thursday, holding not far from the December multi-month high of 158.07 by the end of the day. Market participants kept the focus on US political uncertainty as former President Donald Trump gears up to retake office while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue.

The Japanese yen suffered from mounting speculation that the upcoming Trump presidency will keep inflationary pressures up, resulting in the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates higher for longer. In its December statement, the US Central Bank has already hinted at just two potential rate cuts this year, halving the four cuts foreseen three months previously. Expectations of higher Treasury yields maintained the Greenback on the winning side.

Tepid Chinese data released at the beginning of the day spurred the sour mood. The country’s December Caixin Manufacturing PMI was confirmed at 50.5, down from the previous 51.7 and missing the 51.7 expected by market players.

USD/JPY Technical Outlook

USD/JPY posted a higher high and a higher low on a daily basis, supporting a bullish continuation, particularly if the pair overcomes the December high of 157.92 (December 20). Gains beyond the latter expose the weekly top of 158.85 (July 16). Further up, the 2024 peak of 161.95 (July 3) comes before the round level of 162.00. The initial support lies at the aforementioned intraday low, followed by the key 200-day SMA at 152.29, which precedes the December low of 148.63 (December 3) and the weekly low of 141.64 (September 30). If this level is breached, the market may fall to the 2024 bottom of 139.57 (September 16). In the 4-hour chart, the RSI aims north at around 56, indicating additional gains are likely in the near term.

Japanese Yen PRICE Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the British Pound.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.90%	1.19%	0.14%	0.14%	-0.18%	0.06%	0.67%
EUR	-0.90%		0.22%	-0.68%	-0.77%	-1.03%	-0.87%	-0.22%
GBP	-1.19%	-0.22%		-0.94%	-1.03%	-1.35%	-1.11%	-0.55%
JPY	-0.14%	0.68%	0.94%		-0.08%	-0.40%	-0.22%	0.39%
CAD	-0.14%	0.77%	1.03%	0.08%		-0.32%	-0.12%	0.51%
AUD	0.18%	1.03%	1.35%	0.40%	0.32%		0.16%	0.63%
NZD	-0.06%	0.87%	1.11%	0.22%	0.12%	-0.16%		0.68%
CHF	-0.67%	0.22%	0.55%	-0.39%	-0.51%	-0.63%	-0.68%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

17:43

Dow Jones Industrial Average churns to kick off new year

The Dow Jones cycled near familiar levels on the first trading day of 2025.
Tepid intraday flows crimp hopes for a ‘Santa Clause rally’.
Initial Jobless Claims improved, but not enough to spark a firm risk-on bid.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fizzled on Thursday, kicking off the 2025 trading year with a flat performance and churning chart paper near 42,500. Equities were middling overall during the US market session, with early gains reversing through the day.

The first week of 2025 remains thin on the economic calendar overall, though US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey results are due on Friday. US Initial Jobless Claims rose 211K through the week ended December 27, below the forecast uptick to 222K from the previous week’s revised print of 220K.

Dow Jones news

Roughly a third of the Dow Jones’ constituent stocks are in the green on Thursday, with Nvidia (NVDA) rebounding 1.8% after a near-term dip and rising toward $137 per share. Despite the upswing in 2024’s tech rally darling, concentrated losses in other market favorites including Boeing (BA) and Apple (AAPL) are keeping the DJIA hobbled for the new year, with both companies falling 3.5% and 3%, respectively.

Dow Jones price forecast

The Dow’s mixed performance on Thursday has chalked a wide range into the intraday chart with the major equity index starting the day with a 300-point gain before reversing course and backsliding to a -300 loss. The DJIA peaked just north of 42,800 before falling back below 42,250.

Bearish flows from the tail-end of 2024 are continuing into the new year, keeping the Dow capped below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) which is rolling over into a bearish stance below 43,270. If bearish momentum accelerates, it’ll put the DJIA on pace for a fresh challenge of the 200-day EMA near 42,120.

Dow Jones daily chart

Dow Jones FAQs

What is the Dow Jones?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.

What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average?

Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.

What is Dow Theory?

Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.

How can I trade the DJIA?

There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.

16:59

GBP/USD forecast: 2024 low at siege amid risk aversion GBPUSD

UK manufacturing output contracted by more than anticipated in December.
Market players buy the Greenback as mounting uncertainty weighs.
GBP/USD pressures fresh multi-month lows with a firmly bearish stance.

The US Dollar (USD) resumed its advance after the New Year holiday, challenging multi-month highs against European rivals in the American session. The GBP/USD pair traded as low as 1.2351, bouncing just modestly from the level as the dismal mood prevails.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) fell following the release of the December United Kingdom (UK) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), as the final version resulted at 47, below the previous estimate of 47.3, also missing expectations of a similar reading.

The faster-than-anticipated contraction in manufacturing output was attributed to “destocking at clients, subdued market confidence and operational restructuring in response to forthcoming legislative changes hit output and demand and reinforced ongoing efforts to achieve cost efficiencies,” according to the S&P Global report.

Meanwhile, financial markets are in risk-averse mode. Concerns about central banks’ hawkish shifts coupled with geopolitical tensions push speculative interest into safety.

The UK will publish minor money-related data on Friday, which usually has no relevant impact on GBP. The United States (US) will release the December ISM Manufacturing PMI, foreseen stable at 48.4. A better-than-anticipated reading should provide additional support to the USD.

GBP/USD Technical Outlook

The GBP/USD pair trades at around 1.2370 without signs of changing course in the near term. The pair has fallen for a third consecutive trading day, and once the aforementioned intraday low gives up, the 2024 low at 1.2298 comes as the next relevant support level and a potential bearish target. A break below the latter exposes the 1.2200 threshold.

Potential GBP/USD gains would likely be corrective, with the initial resistance coming at around the 1.2400 area. December 20 low at 1.2474, is the next level to watch.

British Pound PRICE Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Euro.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.89%	1.14%	0.19%	0.26%	-0.29%	-0.07%	0.67%
EUR	-0.89%		0.17%	-0.65%	-0.65%	-1.14%	-0.99%	-0.22%
GBP	-1.14%	-0.17%		-0.86%	-0.87%	-1.41%	-1.18%	-0.51%
JPY	-0.19%	0.65%	0.86%		-0.01%	-0.54%	-0.38%	0.36%
CAD	-0.26%	0.65%	0.87%	0.00%		-0.56%	-0.36%	0.39%
AUD	0.29%	1.14%	1.41%	0.54%	0.56%		0.15%	0.75%
NZD	0.07%	0.99%	1.18%	0.38%	0.36%	-0.15%		0.79%
CHF	-0.67%	0.22%	0.51%	-0.36%	-0.39%	-0.75%	-0.79%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

16:59

EUR/USD slumps to two-year low as growth concerns weigh EURUSD

EUR/USD shed another full percent as Euro fears simmer.
European Manufacturing PMI missed the mark, implying steepening contraction expectations.
ECB policies are expected to diverge steeply from the Fed this year.

EUR/USD dumped another full percentage point on Thursday, kicking off 2025 with its lowest prices in two years. The Euro fell below 1.0250 against the Greenback since November of 2022 and putting Fiber on pace to close for a fourth straight month in the red if things don’t improve in January.

Pan-European Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey results fell slightly in December, ticking down to 45.1 versus the expected hold at 45.2. While the data itself had a relatively low impact, it helped to highlight the increasing likelihood that the European Central Bank (ECB) would accelerate rate cuts to bolster the European economy, even as petrol prices hit their own two-year highs.

Coupled with a Federal Reserve (Fed) that is set to cut rates slower than expected, the interest rate divergence underpinning EUR/USD is set to widen dramatically in the coming months. Some analysts expect the Euro to return to parity against the US Dollar sometime in the next 12 months.

EUR/USD price forecast

EUR/USD is down 8.82% top-to-bottom from September’s peak bids just above the 1.1200 handle, though short-sellers remain unable to pierce 1.0200 for now. A bearish divergence on the Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD) indicator is getting hard to ignore, implying further technical losses on the horizon.

Fiber bids are getting pushed further down by a descending 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) falling into 1.0550. If bidders are able to stage a comeback beyond this point, the 200-day EMA will be waiting just above at 1.0760.

EUR/USD daily chart

Euro FAQs

What is the Euro?

The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro?

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro?

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

How does economic data influence the value of the Euro?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro?

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.