CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 01-09-2014

(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Light Crude 95.96 +1.49%

Gold 1,287.40 -0.23%

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei 225 15,476.6 +52.01 +0.34%

Hang Seng 24,752.09 +10.03 +0.04%

Shanghai Composite 2,235.51 +18.31 +0.83%

FTSE 100 6,825.31 +5.56 +0.08%

CAC 40 4,379.73 -1.31 -0.03%

Xetra DAX 9,479.03 +8.86 +0.09%

S&P 500 2,003.37 +6.63 +0.33%

NASDAQ Composite 4,580.27 +22.58 +0.50%

Dow Jones 17,098.45 +18.88 +0.11%

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3127 -0,04%

GBP/USD $1,6607 +0,07%

USD/CHF Chf0,9194 +0,13%

USD/JPY Y104,31 +0,23%

EUR/JPY Y136,93 +0,19%

GBP/JPY Y173,23 +0,28%

AUD/USD $0,9331 -0,04%

NZD/USD $0,8377 +0,23%

USD/CAD C$1,0875 -0,01%

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

01:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m July -5.0% +1.7%

01:30 Australia Building Permits, y/y July +16.0%

01:30 Australia Current Account, bln Quarter II -5.7 -13.8

01:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings, YoY July +1.0% Revised From +0.4% +0.9%

04:30 Australia Announcement of the RBA decision on the discount rate 2.50% 2.50%

04:30 Australia RBA Rate Statement

05:45 Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Quarter II +0.5% +0.5%

05:45 Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (YoY) Quarter II +2.5%

08:30 United Kingdom PMI Construction August 62.4 61.5

09:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index, MoM July +0.1% 0.0%

09:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) July -0.8% -1.1%

13:45 U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Finally) August 58.0 58.0

14:00 U.S. Construction Spending, m/m July -1.8% +0.9%

14:00 U.S. ISM Manufacturing August 57.1 57.0

23:30 Australia AIG Services Index August 49.3

Most stock indices closed slightly higher despite the mixed economic data from Eurozone. Eurozone's final manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 50.7 in August from 50.8 in July. Analysts had expected the manufacturing PMI to remain unchanged.

German final manufacturing PMI dropped to 51.4 in August from 52.0 in July. Analysts had expected the manufacturing PMI to remain unchanged.

French final manufacturing PMI rose to 46.9 in August from 46.5 in July.

German gross domestic product (GDP) declined 0.2% in the second quarter, in line with expectations.

On a yearly basis, German GDP increased 0.8% in in the second quarter, in line with expectations.

Investors are awaiting the European Central Bank's interest rate decision on Thursday and speculate that the ECB may add new stimulus measures.

Escalating tensions over Ukraine weighed on markets. USA and the European Union threatened further economic sanctions on Russia. Investors have concerns that sanctions against Russia would have a negative impact on the economic growth in the Eurozone.

U.S. markets are closed for the Labor Day holiday on Monday.

Novartis AG shares jumped 4.3% after the company reported that s experimental heart drug showed better results than standard therapy.

Indexes on the close:

Name Price Change Change %

FTSE 100 6,825.31 +5.56 +0.08%

DAX 9,479.03 +8.86 +0.09%

CAC 40 4,379.73 -1.31 -0.03%

Brent crude extended a two-month slide as OPEC's production was seen increasing and manufacturing gauges in Europe and China missed estimates. West Texas Intermediate fell in New York.

Futures slid as much as 0.4 percent in London, having retreated more than $9 in July and August. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries boosted output by 891,000 barrels a day to 31 million in August, the highest level in a year, estimates compiled by Bloomberg show. Purchasing Manufacturing Indexes for Germany, Italy, the U.K. and China all came in below estimates for August. Floor trading in the U.S. is closed for the Labor Day holiday today.

"Those disappointing PMI numbers are helping push oil prices lower," Michael Hewson, a London-based analyst at CMC Markets Plc, said by e-mail. "Lower demand against expectations of higher production is helping cap the upside."

Brent for October settlement dropped as much as 37 cents to $102.82 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange and was at $103.03 as of 3:23 p.m. local time. The volume of all futures traded was about 59 percent below the 100-day average for the time of day. Prices decreased 2.7 percent in August and 5.6 percent in July, the longest monthly falling streak since one that ended in May last year. Brent is down 7.1 percent this year.

WTI for October delivery slid as much as 44 cents to $95.52 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Transactions will be booked tomorrow for settlement purposes. The European benchmark crude traded at a premium of $7.35 to WTI on ICE, compared with $7.23 on Aug. 29, which was the narrowest closing level since Aug. 14.

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies in quiet trade. Tensions over Ukraine continued to weigh on markets.

U.S. markets are closed for the Labor Day holiday on Monday.

The euro traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. Mixed economic data from the Eurozone weighed on the euro. Eurozone's final manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 50.7 in August from 50.8 in July. Analysts had expected the manufacturing PMI to remain unchanged.

German final manufacturing PMI dropped to 51.4 in August from 52.0 in July. Analysts had expected the manufacturing PMI to remain unchanged.

French final manufacturing PMI rose to 46.9 in August from 46.5 in July.

German gross domestic product (GDP) declined 0.2% in the second quarter, in line with expectations.

On a yearly basis, German GDP increased 0.8% in in the second quarter, in line with expectations.

Investors have concerns that sanctions against Russia would have a negative impact on the economic growth in the Eurozone.

The British pound traded mixed against the U.S. dollar after the mixed economic data from the UK. The U.K. manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell to 52.5 in August from 54.8 in July. That was the lowest reading for 14 months. July's figure was revised down from 55.4

Mortgage approvals in the UK decreased to 66,569 from a revised 67,085 in June. Analysts had expected 66,000 approvals.

Net lending to individuals in the UK climbed to £3.4 billion in July from £2.5 billion in June, beating expectations for a decline to £2.4 billion in July.

The Swiss franc traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. The Swiss manufacturing PMI declined to 52.9 in August from 54.3 in July, missing expectations for a fall to 53.8.

The New Zealand dollar traded mixed against the U.S dollar. In the overnight trading session, the kiwi rose against the greenback due to the strong overseas trade data from New Zealand. New Zealand's overseas trade index climbed 0.3% in the second quarter, after a 1.8% increase in the first quarter. Export volumes dropped 5.3%, while import volumes gained 3.6%.

The Australian dollar traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. In the overnight trading session, the Aussie traded higher against the U.S. currency despite the weaker-than-expected economic data from Australia. Company operating profits in Australia fell 6.9% in the second quarter, missing expectations for a 1.8% drop, after a 2.0% rise in the first quarter. The first quarter's figure was revised down from a 3.1% gain.

The Australia Industry Group released its manufacturing index for Australia. The index decreased to 47.3 in August from 50.7 in July. The figure below the mark of 50 means contraction.

The Japanese yen traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. Capital spending in Japan rose 3.0% in the second quarter, after a 7.4% increase in the first quarter.

Gold prices fluctuate while the financial markets in the United States are closed and there is a reduced trading volume. In the absence of the American Statistical investors evaluate data from Europe and China.

Growth in China's processing industry slowed in August compared with July.

The official purchasing managers' index reached 51.1 points against 51.7 in July and 51 in June and has appeared as a result of lower than expected by analysts on average 51.2 points.

Experts see this as a sign of instability slowing economic recovery of the PRC.

Another PMI, published by HSBC Holdings and Markit, was the result of 50.2 points, which is much lower than July's 51.7 points (it was the highest level of the index and a half years) and pre-50.3. The index HSBC, in contrast to the official PMI, a higher proportion of medium and small private companies.

At the same time the value of both the PMI index remains above 50, indicating continued growth in the processing industry of China.

At the same time, German GDP fell in the second quarter of 2014 by 0.2% compared with the previous quarter, according to final data from the Federal Statistical Office of Germany (Destatis).

Economic growth in the April-June was 1.2% compared to the same period in 2013, adjusted for the number of working days.

The dynamics of both indicators coincided with the preliminary data as well as the forecast of analysts.

Part of the reduction is due to the transfer of the German economy in the production of the first months of the year due to an unusually warm winter, however, the Bundesbank has signaled the lack of confidence in the booming growth in the second half of the year, and noted that its full-year forecast may be too optimistic. According to the current forecast of the Central Bank, Germany's GDP in 2014 will increase by 1.9%, in 2015 - by 2%.

However, news of the weakness in the euro zone's largest economy came amid expectations of new stimulus measures from the European Central Bank, which will hold a regular meeting on Thursday.

According to Destatis, capital expenditures in the country fell by 2.3% in the second quarter, while construction output fell by 4.2%. However, the costs of the state and the population grew in the April-June by 0.1%.

The volume of German exports in the last quarter rose by 0.9%, imports - by 1.6%.

The cost of the October gold futures on the COMEX to date is $ 1287.40 per ounce.

USD/JPY 103.25 (USD 925m) 103.40 104.20

EUR/USD 1.3135 1.3185-95 1.3290-3300 (EUR 400m)

GBP/USD 1.6635

AUD/USD 0.9320

USD/CAD 1.0800 (USD 651m) 1.1000 (USD 851m)

NZD/USD 0.8400

EUR/USD

Offers $1.322-40, $1.3200, $1.3150

Bids $1.3110-00, $1.3080, $1.3050, $1.3020, $1.3000

GBP/USD

Offers $1.6720, $1.6700, $1.6650

Bids $1.6580, $1.6550, $1.6500

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9415/20, $0.9400, $0.9370/80

Bids $0.9300, $0.9280, $0.9255/50

EUR/JPY

Offers Y138.20, Y137.90/00, Y137.50

Bids Y136.50, Y136.20, Y136.00

USD/JPY

Offers Y105.50, Y105.00, Y104.50

Bids Y10400, Y103.80, Y103.50, Y103.20, Y103.00

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.7970, stg0.7950, stg0.7920

Bids stg0.7850, stg0.7820, stg0.7800

Economic calendar (GMT0):

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)

01:00 China Manufacturing PMI August 51.7 51.2 51.1

01:30 Australia Company Operating Profits Quarter II +3.1% -1.8% -6.9%

01:45 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Finally) August 50.3 50.3 50.2

06:00 Germany GDP (QoQ) (Finally) Quarter II -0.2% -0.2% -0.2%

06:00 Germany GDP (YoY) (Finally) Quarter II +0.8% +0.8% +0.8%

06:30 Australia RBA Commodity prices, y/y August -12.1% -11.5%

07:30 Switzerland Manufacturing PMI August 54.3 53.8 52.9

07:48 France Manufacturing PMI (Finally) August 46.5 46.5 46.9

07:53 Germany Manufacturing PMI (Finally) August 52.0 52.0 51.4

07:58 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Finally) August 50.8 50.8 50.7

08:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing August 55.4 55.1 52.5

08:30 United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals, bln July 2.5 2.4 3.4

08:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals July 67 66 67

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies. Tensions over Ukraine continued to weigh on markets.

U.S. markets are closed for the Labor Day holiday on Monday.

The euro traded slightly higher against the U.S. dollar after the mixed economic data from the Eurozone. Eurozone's final manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 50.7 in August from 50.8 in July. Analysts had expected the manufacturing PMI to remain unchanged.

German final manufacturing PMI dropped to 51.4 in August from 52.0 in July. Analysts had expected the manufacturing PMI to remain unchanged.

French final manufacturing PMI rose to 46.9 in August from 46.5 in July.

German gross domestic product (GDP) declined 0.2% in the second quarter, in line with expectations.

On a yearly basis, German GDP increased 0.8% in in the second quarter, in line with expectations.

Investors have concerns that sanctions against Russia would have a negative impact on the economic growth in the Eurozone.

The British pound traded mixed against the U.S. dollar after the mixed economic data from the UK. The U.K. manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell to 52.5 in August from 54.8 in July. That was the lowest reading for 14 months. July's figure was revised down from 55.4

Mortgage approvals in the UK decreased to 66,569 from a revised 67,085 in June. Analysts had expected 66,000 approvals.

Net lending to individuals in the UK climbed to £3.4 billion in July from £2.5 billion in June, beating expectations for a decline to £2.4 billion in July.

The Swiss franc traded mixed against the U.S. dollar after the Swiss manufacturing PMI. The Swiss manufacturing PMI declined to 52.9 in August from 54.3 in July, missing expectations for a fall to 53.8.

EUR/USD: the currency pair rose to $1.3145

GBP/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

USD/JPY: the currency pair increased to Y104.31

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

12:00 Canada Bank holiday

12:00 U.S. Bank holiday

Stock indices traded little changed as escalating tensions over Ukraine weighed on markets. USA and the European Union threatened further economic sanctions on Russia. Investors have concerns that sanctions against Russia would have a negative impact on the economic growth in the Eurozone.

Mixed economic data from the Eurozone also weighed on markets. Eurozone's final manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 50.7 in August from 50.8 in July. Analysts had expected the manufacturing PMI to remain unchanged.

German final manufacturing PMI dropped to 51.4 in August from 52.0 in July. Analysts had expected the manufacturing PMI to remain unchanged.

French final manufacturing PMI rose to 46.9 in August from 46.5 in July.

German gross domestic product (GDP) declined 0.2% in the second quarter, in line with expectations.

On a yearly basis, German GDP increased 0.8% in in the second quarter, in line with expectations.

Current figures:

Name Price Change Change %

FTSE 100 6,816.33 -3.42 -0.05%

DAX 9,472.62 +2.45 +0.03%

CAC 40 4,373.71 -7.33 -0.17%

Asian stock indices closed slightly higher after the manufacturing purchasing managers' index from China. Chinese manufacturing figures missed analysts' expectations. China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell to 51.1 in August from 51.7 in July, missing expectations for a decline to 51.2.

China's final HSBC manufacturing purchasing managers' index decreased to 50.2 in August from 50.3 in July, in line with expectations.

Investors speculate China may add more stimulus measures.

Capital spending in Japan rose 3.0% in the second quarter, after a 7.4% increase in the first quarter.

Escalating tensions over Ukraine continued to weigh on markets.

Indexes on the close:

Nikkei 225 15,476.6 +52.01 +0.34%

Hang Seng 24,752.09 +10.03 +0.04%

Shanghai Composite 2,235.51 +18.31 +0.83%

USDJPY 103.25 (USD 925m) 103.40 104.20

EURUSD 1.3135 1.3185-95 1.3290-3300 (EUR 400m)

GBPUSD 1.6635

AUDUSD 0.9320

USDCAD 1.0800 (USD 651m) 1.1000 (USD 851m)

NZDUSD 0.8400

Economic calendar (GMT0):

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)

01:00 China Manufacturing PMI August 51.7 51.2 51.1

01:30 Australia Company Operating Profits Quarter II +3.1% -1.8% -6.9%

01:45 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Finally) August 50.3 50.3 50.2

06:00 Germany GDP (QoQ) (Finally) Quarter II -0.2% -0.2% -0.2%

06:00 Germany GDP (YoY) (Finally) Quarter II +0.8% +0.8% +0.8%

06:30 Australia RBA Commodity prices, y/y August -12.1% -11.5%

07:30 Switzerland Manufacturing PMI August 54.3 53.8 52.9

07:48 France Manufacturing PMI (Finally) August 46.5 46.5 46.9

07:53 Germany Manufacturing PMI (Finally) August 52.0 52.0 51.4

07:58 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Finally) August 50.8 50.8 50.7

08:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing August 55.4 55.1 52.5

08:30 United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals, bln July 2.5 2.4 3.4

08:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals July 67 66 67

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies. Tensions over Ukraine continued to weigh on markets.

U.S. markets are closed for the Labor Day holiday on Monday.

The New Zealand dollar increased against the U.S dollar due to the strong overseas trade data from New Zealand. New Zealand's overseas trade index climbed 0.3% in the second quarter, after a 1.8% increase in the first quarter. Export volumes dropped 5.3%, while import volumes gained 3.6%.

The Australian dollar traded higher against the U.S. dollar despite the weaker-than-expected economic data from Australia. Company operating profits in Australia fell 6.9% in the second quarter, missing expectations for a 1.8% drop, after a 2.0% rise in the first quarter. The first quarter's figure was revised down from a 3.1% gain.

Commodity prices in Australia declined 11.5% in August, after a 12.1 drop in July.

The Australia Industry Group released its manufacturing index for Australia. The index decreased to 47.3 in August from 50.7 in July. The figure below the mark of 50 means contraction.

The Japanese yen traded mixed against the U.S. dollar after the capital spending data from Japan. Capital spending in Japan rose 3.0% in the second quarter, after a 7.4% increase in the first quarter.

EUR/USD: the currency pair fell to $1.3118

GBP/USD: the currency pair rose to $1.6606

USD/JPY: the currency pair traded mixed

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

12:00 Canada Bank holiday

12:00 U.S. Bank holiday

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3262 (3176)

$1.3224 (3079)

$1.3193 (700)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.3125

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3092 (5472)

$1.3065 (6385)

$1.3031 (3530)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date September, 5 is 67966 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3400 (6758);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date September, 5 is 63918 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3100 (6385);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.94 versus 0.96 from the previous trading day according to data from August, 29

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.6900 (2308)

$1.6800 (2560)

$1.6701 (1037)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.6600

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.6498 (2061)

$1.6400 (992)

$1.6300 (702)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date September, 5 is 31113 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7000 (2760);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date September, 5 is 32008 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6800 (4025);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.03 versus 0.98 from the previous trading day according to data from August, 29

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.