CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 01-08-2019

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01.08.2019
22:30
Schedule for today, Friday, August 2, 2019
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
01:30 Australia Producer price index, q / q Quarter II 0.4% 0.2%
01:30 Australia Producer price index, y/y Quarter II 1.9% 1.9%
01:30 Australia Retail Sales, M/M June 0.1% 0.3%
06:30 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) July 0% -0.3%
06:30 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) July 0.6% 0.5%
07:30 Switzerland Manufacturing PMI July 47.7  
08:30 United Kingdom PMI Construction July 43.1 46
09:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) June 1.6% 0.8%
09:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index, MoM June -0.1% -0.3%
09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) June -0.3% 0.2%
09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) June 1.3% 1.3%
12:30 U.S. Average workweek July 34.4 34.4
12:30 U.S. Manufacturing Payrolls July 17 5
12:30 U.S. Government Payrolls July 33  
12:30 U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate July 62.9%  
12:30 U.S. Private Nonfarm Payrolls July 191 160
12:30 U.S. Average hourly earnings July 0.2% 0.2%
12:30 Canada Trade balance, billions June 0.76 -0.3
12:30 U.S. International Trade, bln June -55.5 -54.6
12:30 U.S. Unemployment Rate July 3.7% 3.7%
12:30 U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls July 224 164
14:00 U.S. Factory Orders June -0.7% 0.8%
14:00 U.S. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index July 98.2 98.5
17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count August 776  
20:28
Major US stock indexes finished trading below zero

Major US stock indices plummeted and moved to negative territory after US President Trump announced additional duties on imports of new goods from China.

Trump announced an additional 10% duty on goods from China in the amount of $ 300 billion, and noted that the additional duty will start on September 1. “We look forward to continuing a constructive dialogue with China on a trade agreement. We thought we made a deal with China three months ago, but unfortunately, China decided to review its terms. The next round of trade negotiations with China is still scheduled for September, ”said Trump.

Trump said that, in his opinion, Xi wants a trade agreement, but “to be honest, he is not fast enough.” Trump also said that the main burden of duties falls on China, not on American consumers, and added that “if China doesn’t want to trade with us anymore, that’s fine with me "

Trump later said that the latest rates could be raised above 25%. He also warned that he could lower or increase tariffs depending on how the negotiations go. Trump also said that new tariffs will be introduced for the "short-term" period.

Most DOW components completed trading in the red (23 out of 30). Outsiders were the shares of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS; -3.87%). The biggest gainers were International Business Machines Corporation (IBM; + 1.40%).

Almost all sectors of the S & P recorded a decline. The raw materials sector declined the most (-2.5%). Only the utilities sector grew (+ 0.9%).

At the time of closing:

Dow 26,583.42 -280.85 -1.05%

S & P 500 2,953.56 -26.82 -0.90%

Nasdaq 100 8,111.12  -64.30 -0.79%

19:50
Schedule for tomorrow, Friday, August 2, 2019
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
01:30 Australia Producer price index, q / q Quarter II 0.4% 0.2%
01:30 Australia Producer price index, y/y Quarter II 1.9% 1.9%
01:30 Australia Retail Sales, M/M June 0.1% 0.3%
06:30 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) July 0% -0.3%
06:30 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) July 0.6% 0.5%
07:30 Switzerland Manufacturing PMI July 47.7  
08:30 United Kingdom PMI Construction July 43.1 46
09:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) June 1.6% 0.8%
09:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index, MoM June -0.1% -0.3%
09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) June -0.3% 0.2%
09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) June 1.3% 1.3%
12:30 U.S. Average workweek July 34.4 34.4
12:30 U.S. Manufacturing Payrolls July 17 5
12:30 U.S. Government Payrolls July 33  
12:30 U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate July 62.9%  
12:30 U.S. Private Nonfarm Payrolls July 191 160
12:30 U.S. Average hourly earnings July 0.2% 0.2%
12:30 Canada Trade balance, billions June 0.76 -0.3
12:30 U.S. International Trade, bln June -55.5 -54.6
12:30 U.S. Unemployment Rate July 3.7% 3.7%
12:30 U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls July 224 164
14:00 U.S. Factory Orders June -0.7% 0.8%
14:00 U.S. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index July 98.2 98.5
17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count August 776  
19:01
DJIA -0.89% 26,625.22 -239.05 Nasdaq -0.71% 8,117.73 -57.69 S&P -0.81% 2,956.18 -24.20
16:00
European stocks closed: FTSE 100 7,584.87 -1.91 -0.03% DAX 12,253.15 +64.11 +0.53% CAC 40 5,557.41 +38.51 +0.70%
14:50
UK's PMI hints resumption of inventory-building process ahead of October Brexit deadline - ING

James Smith, developed markets economist at ING, notes that the UK manufacturing PMI reading came in at 48.0 in July, indicating a continued contraction in manufacturing activities.

  • "Much – if not all – of this recent weakness is linked to pre-Brexit stockpiling. Having built inventory to insulate against possible supply chain disruption, firms have been cutting back on new orders while they grapple with what to do with all the extra stock.
  • But while the PMI points to a lacklusteк start to the third quarter for manufacturing, driven partly by the global slowdown in demand - the Markit/CIPS press release suggests that the inventory story may be starting to evolve. The new 31 October Brexit deadline is drawing nearer, and firms are once again ramping up preparations for a potential ‘no deal’ scenario. Stocks of finished goods inched higher in July – albeit more slowly than earlier in the year.
  • While we may not see a full correction, we’re likely to see a reasonably sizable inventory drag during the second quarter, and overall growth will probably come in more-or-less flat.
  • The real challenge for those firms who need to rebuild stock in advance of the October deadline will be finding a place to store all the extra goods."

14:34
U.S. construction spending unexpectedly falls in June

The Commerce Department said on Thursday that construction spending fell 1.3 percent m-o-m in June after a revised 0.5 percent m-o-m drop in May (originally a 0.8 percent m-o-m decline). It was the largest drop since November 2018.

Economists had forecast construction spending increasing 0.5 percent m-o-m in June.

On a y-o-y basis, construction spending dropped 1.2 percent in June.

According to the report, investment in public construction tumbled 3.7 percent m-o-m (the largest monthly drop since March of 2002), while spending on private construction fell 0.5 percent m-o-m.

14:19
U.S. manufacturing growth decelerates in July - ISM

A report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed on Thursday the U.S. manufacturing sector expanded in July at a slower pace than in June.

The ISM's index of manufacturing activity came in at 51.2 percent last month, down 0.5 percentage point from the June reading of 51.7 percent, and beat economists' forecast for a 52.0 percent reading. That was the lowest reading since August 2016.

A reading above 50 percent indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 percent indicates contraction.

According to the report, the New Orders Index stood at 50.8 percent, a gain of 0.8 percentage point from the June reading, while the Inventories Index recorded 49.5 percent, an increase of 0.4 percentage point, and the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 53.3 percent, an advance of 2.6 percentage points. At the same time, the Production Index came in at 50.8 percent in June, a 3.3-percentage point drop compared to the June reading, and the Employment Index was at 51.7 percent, a decline of 2.8 percentage point.

Timothy R. Fiore, Chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee said, “The past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the PMI for July (51.2 percent) corresponds to a 2.5-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis."

14:00
U.S.: Construction Spending, m/m, June -1.3% (forecast 0.5%)
14:00
U.S.: ISM Manufacturing, July 51.2 (forecast 52)
13:45
U.S.: Manufacturing PMI, July 50.4 (forecast 50.0)
13:36
U.S. Stocks open: Dow +0.10, Nasdaq +0.52% S&P +0.20%
13:29
Before the bell: S&P futures +0.02%, NASDAQ futures +0.13%

U.S. stock-index futures traded little-changed on Thursday, after the stocks fell the day before on Fed Chair Powell tempering expectations for further rate cuts. Market focus shifted back to corporate earnings

Global Stocks:

Index/commodity

Last

Today's Change, points

Today's Change, %

Nikkei

21,540.99 

+19.46

+0.09%

Hang Seng

27,565.70

-212.05

-0.76%

Shanghai

2,908.77 

-23.74

-0.81%

S&P/ASX

6,788.90 

-23.70

-0.35%

FTSE

7,553.81 

-32.97

-0.43%

CAC

5,540.69 

+21.79

+0.39%

DAX

12,213.19 

+24.15

+0.20%

Crude oil

$57.56


-1.74%

Gold

$1,417.30


-1.43%

13:13
BoE raises bar to rate increases - TD Securities

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that the Bank of England (BoE) took a dovish turn, as it now needs to also see "some recovery in global growth," on top of a smooth Brexit transition, in order to raise rates in the future.

  • “Even in the event of a smooth transition though, the Bank's forecasts suggest that it wouldn't need to raise rates more than once over the next three years in order to see inflation reach the 2.0% target.
  • The BoE's incremental dovish step keeps our focus on further downside risks for sterling, but GBP has already weakened significantly in recent days. We think GBP may stabilize a bit near-term, but rallies look likely to be sold as investors seek better levels to enter or add to existing GBP shorts.
  • As expected, the BoE rhetoric was cautious and contingent on the outcome of Brexit. However, in the rates space, the overall reaction was relatively muted. From a tactical perspective, we favour receiving white/reds contracts amid the ongoing uncertainty. Further out the curve, we remain biased towards a flatter 5s30s curve.”

12:49
Wall Street. Stocks before the bell

Wall Street. Stocks before the bell

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)


3M Co

MMM

174.6

-0.12(-0.07%)

2707

ALTRIA GROUP INC.

MO

47.55

0.48(1.02%)

8024

Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ

AMZN

1,876.97

10.19(0.55%)

27199

Apple Inc.

AAPL

214.4

1.36(0.64%)

200727

AT&T Inc

T

34.04

-0.01(-0.03%)

44181

Boeing Co

BA

342.6

1.42(0.42%)

10188

Caterpillar Inc

CAT

132.1

0.43(0.33%)

1485

Chevron Corp

CVX

122.69

-0.42(-0.34%)

2273

Cisco Systems Inc

CSCO

55.39

-0.01(-0.02%)

8351

Citigroup Inc., NYSE

C

71.28

0.12(0.17%)

11776

Deere & Company, NYSE

DE

165.99

0.34(0.21%)

1000

E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Co

DD

73.75

1.59(2.20%)

2482

Exxon Mobil Corp

XOM

74.05

-0.31(-0.42%)

10730

Facebook, Inc.

FB

195.05

0.82(0.42%)

45876

Ford Motor Co.

F

9.52

-0.01(-0.10%)

53942

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE

FCX

10.95

-0.11(-0.99%)

70014

General Electric Co

GE

10.41

-0.04(-0.38%)

106580

General Motors Company, NYSE

GM

41.63

1.29(3.20%)

535513

Goldman Sachs

GS

220.7

0.57(0.26%)

3035

Google Inc.

GOOG

1,219.50

2.82(0.23%)

6181

Intel Corp

INTC

50.27

-0.28(-0.55%)

10987

International Business Machines Co...

IBM

148.87

0.63(0.43%)

8983

Johnson & Johnson

JNJ

130.55

0.33(0.25%)

667

JPMorgan Chase and Co

JPM

116.1

0.10(0.09%)

3995

McDonald's Corp

MCD

210.32

-0.40(-0.19%)

760

Merck & Co Inc

MRK

83.2

0.21(0.25%)

1737

Microsoft Corp

MSFT

137.2

0.93(0.68%)

136957

Nike

NKE

85.89

-0.14(-0.16%)

1003

Pfizer Inc

PFE

38.65

0.17(0.44%)

27874

Procter & Gamble Co

PG

118.45

0.41(0.35%)

11820

Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ

SBUX

94.82

0.13(0.14%)

5239

Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ

TSLA

242.41

0.80(0.33%)

20146

The Coca-Cola Co

KO

52.83

0.20(0.38%)

7989

Twitter, Inc., NYSE

TWTR

42.65

0.34(0.80%)

155899

UnitedHealth Group Inc

UNH

250

0.99(0.40%)

1421

Verizon Communications Inc

VZ

55.7

0.43(0.78%)

90361

Visa

V

178.99

0.99(0.56%)

12567

Wal-Mart Stores Inc

WMT

110.5

0.12(0.11%)

3260

Walt Disney Co

DIS

143.45

0.44(0.31%)

7842

Yandex N.V., NASDAQ

YNDX

38.85

-0.37(-0.94%)

1550

12:43
Initiations before the market open

Advanced Micro (AMD) initiated with a Hold at The Benchmark Company

IBM (IBM) resumed with an Overweight at Morgan Stanley; target $170

12:38
U.S. weekly jobless claims rise more than forecast

The data from the Labor Department revealed on Thursday the number of applications for unemployment benefits rose moderately last week, but the trend in claims remained consistent with strong labor market conditions.

According to the report, the initial claims for unemployment benefits increased by 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 215,000 for the week ended July 27

Economists had expected 212,000 new claims last week.

Claims for the prior week were revised upwardly to 207,000 from the initial estimate of 206,000.

Meanwhile, the four-week moving average of claims decreased by 1,750 to 211,500 last week.

12:30
U.S.: Initial Jobless Claims, 215 (forecast 212)
12:30
U.S.: Continuing Jobless Claims, 1699 (forecast 1678)
12:29
Company News: General Motors (GM) quarterly earnings beat analysts’ expectations

General Motors (GM) reported Q2 FY 2019 earnings of $1.64 per share (versus $1.81 in Q2 FY 2018), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $1.45.

The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $36.060 bln (-1.9% y/y), generally in line with analysts’ consensus estimate of $36.025 bln.

GM rose to $41.41 (+2.65%) in pre-market trading.

12:24
FOMC July decision appears to be squarely in the insurance camp - Standard Chartered

Sonia Meskin, the U.S. economist at Standard Chartered, pnotes that the July FOMC meeting was in line with their expectations as the fed funds target rate (FFTR) was cut 25bps, taking it to 2.25%.

  • “The FOMC also announced that its balance sheet tapering would end on 1 August. We think the key change in the statement was the new phrase, “as the Committee contemplates the future path of the target range for the federal funds rate, it will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information”. In contrast, the June statement said, “the Committee will closely monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook”. To us, the July statement change, in conjunction with two dissenting votes (Esther George and Eric Rosengren preferred to leave rates unchanged), means that the hurdle for another 25bps cut in the near term is higher now than it was in June.
  • The press conference reinforced this interpretation. Chair Powell struck a balanced tone, noting that the 25bps cut was “essentially a mid-cycle adjustment”, though he did clarify that he “did not say just one rate cut”, leaving the door open for more. Nonetheless, the Chair made it clear he does not see the current state of the economy as warranting the start of a rate-cutting cycle.
  • Rather, the July decision appears to be squarely in the insurance camp, to cushion the current impact of global growth uncertainty on the economy and help return inflation to the FOMC’s 2% objective. The Committee’s outlook for the US economy remains favourable. This could change if the activity data deteriorated, the global outlook worsened, or inflation expectations plunged. We expect a second 25bps cut in H2-2019.”

12:00
BOE's governo Carney: Perceived chance of a no-deal Brexit has risen
  • Response to Brexit could be in either direction
  • Global trade tensions have intensified
  • Impact of trade tensions is larger than anticipated
  • Underlying UK growth is now below potential
  • Sees UK investment falling further in Q3
  • Domestic inflationary pressures have strengthened
  • There is a possibility of a no-deal outcome
  • We have been preparing financial markets for such a possibility
  • The current stance is that the UK is looking for a deal
  • Cannot say that rates can go in any one direction in the event of a deal or no-deal
11:54
Company News: Verizon (VZ) quarterly earnings beat analysts’ estimates

Verizon (VZ) reported Q2 FY 2019 earnings of $1.23 per share (versus $1.20 in Q2 FY 2018), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $1.23.

The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $32.071 bln (-0.4% y/y), missing analysts’ consensus estimate of $32.420 bln.

VZ rose to $55.95 (+1.23%) in pre-market trading.

11:48
Company News: DuPont (DD) quarterly earnings beat analysts’ forecast

DuPont (DD) reported Q2 FY 2019 earnings of $0.97 per share (versus $1.37 in Q2 FY 2018), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $0.82.

The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $5.468 bln (-6.6% y/y), missing analysts’ consensus estimate of $5.631 bln.

The company issued in-line guidance for FY 2019, projecting EPS of $3.75-3.85 versus analysts’ consensus estimate of $3.80.

DD rose to $73.48 (+1.83%) in pre-market trading.

11:39
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index to stay unchanged – TD Securities

Analysts at TD Securities are expecting the U.S. ISM manufacturing index to stay unchanged at 51.7 (vs. mkt est. of 52.0).

  • “We expect some of the major trade-related concerns to have dissipated in the short-term on the back of the US-China trade truce. This should translate into a stabilization in business sentiment and on the outlook for the sector. The message from the ISM-adjusted regional indices was mixed, with retreats in three out of the five published surveys we track.
  • Other data has been also mixed, as recent firm growth in core durable goods orders suggest some upside, while a weak Markit PMI survey increases the odds for a downside surprise in July.”

11:23
BoE maintains Bank Rate at 0.75%, lowers 2019 GDP forecast

The Bank of England (BoE) announced its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted unanimously to maintain Bank Rate at 0.75 percent at its latest meeting.

The MPC also voted unanimously to maintain the corporate bond purchases at £10 billion and UK government bond purchases at £435 billion.

In its statement, the BoE says:

  • its updated projections, set out in the accompanying August Inflation Report, do not include a no-deal Brexit possibility
  • MPC continues to assume a smooth Brexit scenario. In such an outcome, increases in interest rates, at a gradual pace and to a limited extent, are seen to be appropriate
  • monetary policy response to Brexit, whatever form it takes, will not be automatic and could be in either direction
  • subdued near-term growth outlook reflects more entrenched Brexit uncertainty
  • it estimates GDP growth to be flat q/q in Q2 2019, slightly weaker than anticipated in May
  • it forecasts GDP growth of +0.3% q/q in Q3 2019
  • FY 2019 GDP growth of +1.3% (previously +1.5%)
  • FY 2020 GDP growth of +1.3% (previously +1.6%)
  • FY 2021 GDP growth of +2.3% (previously +2.1%)
  • inflation estimated at 1.90% in one year's time (previously 1.72%)
  • inflation estimated at 2.23% in two years' time (previously 2.05%)
  • inflation estimated at 2.37% in three years' time (previously 2.16%)

11:00
United Kingdom: BoE Interest Rate Decision, 0.75% (forecast 0.75%)
11:00
United Kingdom: Asset Purchase Facility, 435 (forecast 435)
10:56
Fed's Powell signals mini-cut cycle - ABN AMRO

Bill Diviney, the senior economist at ABN AMRO, notes that the FOMC cut the target range for the fed funds rate by 25bp to 2.00-2.25%, as widely expected.

  • “Fed Chair Powell made a robust case for the move in his press conference, citing three key motivations: to insure against downside risks from trade tensions and the global manufacturing slowdown, to offset the effects those factors are already having on activity in the US (specifically the manufacturing sector), and finally, to bring inflation back to target.
  • In addition to these, Powell also noted the decline in neutral rate estimates of FOMC members, which suggested the current policy stance was less accommodative than previously thought, as well as the decline in NAIRU estimates, which suggests more room for the labour market to expand without significant inflationary pressure.
  • However, Powell also sought to manage expectations for further aggressive rate cuts. When questioned on whether one 25bp cut would be enough, he emphasized the path the FOMC has been on since the beginning of the year, moving from a hiking bias, to a neutral stance, and then to an easing bias – and how this by itself had provided significant stimulus by easing financial conditions.
  • Powell failed to "out-dove" market expectations for rate cuts, with equity markets declining, the dollar rising, and OIS pricing of rate cuts receding c.7bp (with 58bp of cuts still priced by next year).
  • All told, the outcome supports our view that the Fed will deliver an additional two 25bp cuts by Q1 2020.

10:46
UK's manufacturing PMI unchanged at 48.0 in July – TD Securities

Analysts at TD Securities note that the UK’s manufacturing PMI remained unchanged from the prior month at 48.0 in July (versus market est. of 47.6).

  • “With slower global growth and so much political and Brexit uncertainty, it's difficult to be optimistic about prospects for the manufacturing sector. Markit noted that some firms have reported clients moving supply chains away from the UK ahead of Brexit.”

10:18
First estimate of Eurozone Q2 GDP in line with the consensus - ABN AMRO

Aline Schuiling, the senior economist at ABN AMRO, notes that the first estimate of Eurozone’s Q2 GDP growth was in line with the consensus forecast, at 0.2% qoq.

  • “The result was somewhat more positive than we had expected (close to stagnation). A number of individual countries have published estimates for growth so far, for instance Spain (down to 0.5% qoq from 0.7% qoq in Q1) Italy (down to zero from +0.1%), France (down to 0.2% from 0.3%), Belgium (down to 0.2% from 0.3% as well). However, the largest member state Germany, where the economy is expected to have contracted in Q2, will wait two more weeks before publishing Q2 GDP data.
  • Moreover, Eurostat has not published any details for eurozone growth and a number of monthly activity data for June (for instance retail sales and industrial production) still has to be published. Considering that business confidence and consumer confidence in the vast majority of counties (including Germany) fell noticeably in June, we think that downward revisions to the eurozone growth estimate of 0.2% qoq could be in the pipeline. Having said that, the annualized rate of growth in Q2 is close to our estimate for GDP growth for this year as a whole (of 0.7%).”

09:59
US markets will go ‘haywire’ if Trump loses 2020 election - Mark Mobius

Stock markets in the U.S. will go “haywire” if President Donald Trump fails to win a second term in the White House, prominent investor Mark Mobius predicted.

Mobius said U.S. markets have continued to climb higher partly because of Trump’s policies. The president made several moves that many considered pro-business since he took office in 2017, such as slashing corporate tax rates.

The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have gone up by more than 30% since the beginning of 2017, while the Nasdaq Composite has risen by around 45%. Such optimism in the stock markets could be disrupted if Trump loses in next year’s presidential race, the investor said.

“I think the markets then will go haywire because they’ve been depending on Trump policies to keep on pushing the market up and also higher growth rate in the U.S.,” Mobius told.

He added that for now, “it doesn’t look likely” that Trump will lose. However, sentiment in the media appeared to be “overwhelmingly” against the president — and that could continue to build until the election next year, he explained. “That’s why I’m a little concerned about this,” he said.

09:42
BoE: MPC likely to drop their tightening bias – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank analysts suggest that the Bank of England’s MPC will be making their latest policy decision today, and will also have the release of the Bank’s quarterly inflation report and a press conference from Governor Carney. 

“Our UK economists wrote that although they expect the MPC will vote to keep Bank Rate on hold, they think that they will drop their tightening bias, “with the MPC becoming more sensitive to a deteriorating economic outlook vis-à-vis the ongoing trade wars and an increasing risk of a no deal Brexit.” Since the MPC’s last meeting of course, sterling has weakened noticeably, although yesterday it was the best-performing G10 currency versus the dollar, trading flat despite broad strength for the greenback.”

09:19
China sees intensive contact with U.S. this month ahead of September trade talks

Chinese and U.S. working teams will be in intensive contact this month to prepare “good groundwork” for the next round of face-to-face trade talks in September, the commerce ministry said on Thursday.

U.S. and Chinese negotiators ended a brief round of talks in Shanghai on Wednesday, with little sign of progress apart from an agreement to meet again next month. It was their first in-person talks since presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping agreed to a trade ceasefire at a G20 summit in June.

“With regards to this (week’s) round of negotiations, both sides communicated over two topics: One is how we view the past - we mainly discussed why negotiations broke down and clarified our views on some economic and trade issues,” commerce ministry spokesman Gao Feng told reporters at a regular briefing.

“The other one is how we view the future to ascertain the principles and methodology of negotiations, as well as relevant timetables.”

China and the United States can find a solution to trade issues if both sides’ concerns are taken into consideration, Gao said, reiterating past comments from Beijing.

09:01
GBP/USD: Rebounds likely – Commerzbank

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, notes that GBP/USD pair has again sold off towards 1.2108, the 78.6% retracement of the entire move up from the 2016 low.

“Rebounds from here are currently indicated to be likely to struggle around 1.2350. The 1.2108/00 level guards the 1.1988 January 2017 low and the 1.1491 3rd October low (according to CQG). It stays negative while contained by 2 month downtrend at 1.2482 today. Above the downtrend this would introduce scope to the 55 day ma at 1.2588 and the June high at 1.2784. Only a rise above the June high at 1.2784 would indicate that a bottom is being formed (not favoured).”

08:45
UK Manufacturing PMI remains stuck at February 2013 low in July - IHS Markit

According to the report from IHS Markit, the downturn in the UK manufacturing sector continued at the start of the third quarter. Production and new orders shrank as manufacturers faced the ongoing headwinds of political uncertainty, a global economic slowdown and the unwinding of stocks built prior to the original Brexit date.

At 48.0 in July, unchanged from June, the headline seasonally adjusted PMI stayed below the neutral 50.0 mark for the third straight month. The last time that the PMI was below its current level was almost six-and-a-half years ago (February 2013).

Manufacturing production fell to the greatest extent in seven years, as companies scaled back output in response to a further solid decrease in new order intakes. Demand was weaker from domestic and overseas markets. Manufacturers linked lower order intakes and production to ongoing uncertainties (political, global trade tensions and Brexit) and slower world economic growth. Employment decreased for the fourth month in a row, with the pace of decline accelerating to one of the highest over the past six-and-a half years. 

Manufacturers maintained a positive outlook in July. Over 46% expect output to be higher in one year's time, compared to less than 10% forecasting contraction.

08:30
United Kingdom: Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing , July 48.0 (forecast 47.7)
08:15
Eurozone manufacturing sector contracts in July at fastest rate since end of 2012

According to the report from IHS Markit, the euro area’s manufacturing sector continued to contract during July, and at an accelerated rate. 

The latest Eurozone Manufacturing PMI posted below the 50.0 no change mark that separates growth from contraction for a sixth successive month and, at 46.5, pointed to the sharpest deterioration in operating conditions since December 2012. The index was down from 47.6 in June, though slightly higher than the earlier July flash reading of 46.4.

The downturn in the overall manufacturing economy was driven in the main by a sharp fall in new orders. Latest data showed that the decline was the second sharpest recorded by the survey in just over six years (surpassed only by a contraction in March). Export trade deteriorated to the greatest degree since November 2011. A deteriorating trend in order books led to a retrenchment in both production and purchasing activity amongst euro area manufacturers. Output was cut to the greatest degree since April 2013, whilst the reduction in purchasing activity was the sharpest seen since the end of 2012. 

July’s survey data indicated a sharp fall in sentiment to its lowest level since the end of 2012. Germany recorded by far the most pessimistic outlook for production over the next 12 months.

08:00
Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI, July 46.5 (forecast 46.4)
07:55
Germany: Manufacturing PMI, July 43.2 (forecast 43.1)
07:50
France: Manufacturing PMI, July 49.7 (forecast 50.0)
07:38
UK: Politics remains at the centre stage - Rabobank

According to Rabobank analysts, for the UK economy, politics remain in focus with the UK by-election, where if the Tory candidate loses and he is expected to, the BoJo government loses its working majority.

“That further complicates the parliamentary arithmetic, of course, and backs the view the UK will have a general election soon. However, it’s equally clear that vote would be held on a ‘Leave any which way’ policy from the Tories and the Brexit Party, perhaps in coalition, against a ‘Remain regardless’ stance from the Lib-Dems and Labour(?) and the Greens and all of the new mini-parties that have sprung up like mushrooms on the decaying corpse of British-politics-as-usual. Yet Brexit and Tory voters strongly overlap: do Labour and Lib-Dem voters quite as much, given the latter were so recently in a Tory coalition? Like I said, watch GBP as well as the BOE.”

07:20
Markets ‘need to chill’ because the Fed may not be done with rate cuts, says economist

The underlying message by the Federal Reserve — after it cut interest rates on Wednesday — may not be as hawkish as many investors had interpreted it to be, according to the chief economist of Institute of International Finance.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell suggested policymakers were not embarking on a new cycle of rate cutting. The 25 basis points cut on Wednesday marked the central bank’s first policy easing in more than a decade.

But Robin Brooks, managing director and chief economist of IIF, suggested that the central bank may not be done with cutting rates.

“I think the midcycle adjustment language that Chairman Powell used is important, ” Brooks pointed out. “The midcycle adjustments that we saw in ’95 and ’98 were 75 basis points each — so three cuts each. And I think that is actually pretty close to what the market was pricing going into this meeting.”

So, the central bank’s move and Powell’s comments on Wednesday aren’t “much of a hawkish surprise at all,” Brooks told. “My basic point here is: I think markets here need to chill a little bit and the underlying theme is more dovish than ... markets perceived.”

Brooks is not the only economist suggesting that the U.S. central bank could lower interest rates even more. Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a Wednesday note that they “see an 80% cumulative probability of another cut at some point this year.”

07:00
UK: BoE and Manufacturing PMI in the spotlight today – TD Securities

Analysts at TD Securities are looking for the UK’s Manufacturing PMI to slide further below the 50-mark in July to 47.0 (mkt 47.6).

“Given the poor outcomes for other European flash PMIs for the month and the growing talk of a hard Brexit, it's difficult to see UK manufacturing activity improving. After the data, we have the next Bank of England decision coming up at midday. Going into the decision, we think that given the change of tone from the Fed and the ECB recently, markets are eager to price in further easing from the BoE as well. Although our base case sees the MPC retaining the reference to gradual and limited rate hikes, we think that markets are likely to look right through any mention of rate hikes as entirely implausible, and just grasp onto any dovish language instead. And given the worsening global backdrop and the increasing concerns around a no-deal Brexit, there should be plenty of dovish language to satisfy markets.”

06:40
China's central bank kept its main policy rates on hold after Fed rate cut, but more easing expected

China's central bank kept its main policy rates on hold on Thursday, opting not to follow rate cut by the U.S. Fed as policymakers wait to see if earlier support measures start to stabilise the economy.

But market watchers say continued support is still needed, and expect more modest forms of policy easing from the People's Bank of China (PBOC) in coming months if pressure on the economy persists.

Amid mounting worries about risks to global growth, the Fed lowered its benchmark rate by a quarter-point on Wednesday, as expected. Though China's central bank does not always follow the Fed's moves in lockstep, some analysts had thought a token PBOC cut, likely in one of its short-term rates, was a possibility. However, no move was apparent by midday on Thursday. The PBOC refrained from daily open market operations (OMOs) early in the session, saying banking system liquidity was "reasonably ample".

"The PBOC skipped OMOs and hence there was no rate adjustment. The market may need to wait until mid-August when the next tranche of medium term lending facility (MLF) matures to see if there is any action. Arguably they can adjust policy parameters anytime, and are not constrained by any meeting schedule, but we see no pressure on OMO rates," said Frances Cheung, head of Asia macro strategy at Westpac.

With household debt climbing and property prices on the rise, policymakers are very cautious about the risks of further loosening, said Zhu Chaoping, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management in Shanghai.

But analysts still expect more measured support from the PBOC in the form of additional liquidity injections. Further cuts in banks' reserve requirement ratios (RRR) are seen in both this quarter and next to direct funding to parts of the economy that need it most. The PBOC has already cut RRR six times since early 2018. 

A system-wide "universal" RRR cut, or a policy rate cut, is still possible by the end of the year, Zhu added.

06:21
BOJ could widen band in which it allows yields to move - BOJ Deputy Governor Amamiya

Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya said the central bank could widen the band in which it allows bond yields to fluctuate around its 0% target, if long-term interest rates make big swings.

"It's true we could be more careful in assessing the merits and demerits of additional action than other central banks," Amamiya told a news conference after meeting with business leaders.

"But just because we've eased so much already does not mean any further steps would be limited or small." Amamiya added.

06:10
EUR/USD remains on the defensive – Commerzbank

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, points out that EUR/USD pair has broken below 1.1110/06, the April and May lows and in doing so has introduced scope to the 1.0974 2018-2019 support line, which in turn guards the 78.6% retracement at 1.0814/78.6% retracement.

“The market will stay directly offered below 1.1176/81 (mid June low and March low) and only a close above here would signal recovery to the 55 day ma at 1.1235 and the highs from last week at 1.1285. But while capped here it will remain on the defensive. The market will need to regain the 55 week ma at 1.1372 to generate upside interest.”

05:59
July FOMC: The Fed likely to ease again; they never just cut once - ING

ING Research discusses its reaction to FOMC policy statement.

"As widely expected, the Federal Reserve has lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 25bp to 2.00-2.25% and left the door open to more easing. It has also decided to conclude its balance sheet run down in August - two months earlier than previously announced. Today’s decision to cut interest rates, for the first time since December 2008, was not unanimous though with Esther George and Eric Rosengren preferring to see policy left unchanged," ING notes. We characterise today’s move as a precautionary, pre-emptive policy change to ensure that the US economic expansion – already the longest since the National Bureau for Economic Research’s database began in 1854 – continues for a good while longer. However, the Fed never cuts rates just once and we doubt it will this cycle," ING adds.

05:16
Options levels on thursday, August 1, 2019 EURUSD GBPUSD

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1212 (1599)

$1.1177 (347)

$1.1153 (306)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1052

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1038 (2092)

$1.0994 (1240)

$1.0947 (320)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date August, 9 is 74012 contracts (according to data from July, 31) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1100 (4555);


GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2406 (108)

$1.2360 (226)

$1.2319 (400)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2130

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2075 (1060)

$1.2035 (234)

$1.1991 (213)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date August, 9 is 16520 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (2051);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date August, 9 is 22073 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2450 (2400);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.34 versus 1.26 from the previous trading day according to data from July, 31

 

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

02:30
Commodities. Daily history for Wednesday, July 31, 2019
Raw materials Closed Change, %
Brent 64.12 -1.02
WTI 57.84 -0.74
Silver 16.24 -1.81
Gold 1412.089 -1.29
Palladium 1516.89 0.26
01:45
China: Markit/Caixin Manufacturing PMI, July 49.9 (forecast 49.6)
01:30
Australia: Import Price Index, q/q, Quarter II 0.9% (forecast 1.8%)
01:30
Australia: Export Price Index, q/q, Quarter II 3.8% (forecast 2.8%)
00:30
Stocks. Daily history for Wednesday, July 31, 2019
Index Change, points Closed Change, %
NIKKEI 225 -187.78 21521.53 -0.86
Hang Seng -368.75 27777.75 -1.31
KOSPI -14.13 2024.55 -0.69
ASX 200 -32.5 6812.6 -0.47
FTSE 100 -59.99 7586.78 -0.78
DAX 41.8 12189.04 0.34
Dow Jones -333.75 26864.27 -1.23
S&P 500 -32.8 2980.38 -1.09
NASDAQ Composite -98.19 8175.42 -1.19
00:30
Japan: Manufacturing PMI, July 49.4 (forecast 49.6)
00:15
Currencies. Daily history for Wednesday, July 31, 2019
Pare Closed Change, %
AUDUSD 0.68433 -0.44
EURJPY 120.413 -0.58
EURUSD 1.1069 -0.76
GBPJPY 132.163 0.18
GBPUSD 1.21509 0
NZDUSD 0.65583 -0.81
USDCAD 1.31867 0.27
USDCHF 0.99381 0.37
USDJPY 108.764 0.17

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