CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 01-07-2014

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01.07.2014

19:00

Dow +143.21 16,969.81 +0.85% Nasdaq +52.91 4,461.09 +1.20% S&P +14.8 1,975.03 +0.76%

16:00

European stock close: FTSE 100 6,802.92 +58.98 +0.87% CAC 40 4,461.12 +38.28 +0.87% DAX 9,902.41 +69.34 +0.71%

16:00

European stocks close: stocks increased due to better-than-expected manufacturing data from China and the U.K. and Eurozone's inflation data

Stock indices increased due to better-than-expected manufacturing data from China and the U.K. and Eurozone's inflation data. The Chinese manufacturing purchase managers' index increased to 51.0 in June from 50.8 in May, in line with expectations.

Eurozone's unemployment rate remained unchanged at 11.6% in May. Analysts had expected an increase to 11.7%.

German unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7% in June, in line with expectations.

The German economy lost 9,000 jobs in June. Analysts had expected the economy to add 9,000 jobs.

German final manufacturing purchase managers' index declined to 52.0 in June from 52.3 in May, missing expectations for a rise to 52.4.

French final manufacturing purchase managers' index decreased to 48.2 in June from 49.6 in May, beating expectations for a drop to 47.8.

The U.K. manufacturing purchase managers' index rose to 57.5 in June from 57.0 in May, beating forecasts of a decline to 56.7.

Bilfinger SE shares dropped 19% after lowering its full-year profit forecast.

BNP Paribas SA shares climbed 3.6% after reporting the company will keep its dividend unchanged.

Indexes on the close:

Name Price Change Change %

FTSE 100 6,802.92 +58.98 +0.87%

DAX 9,902.41 +69.34 +0.71%

CAC 40 4,461.12 +38.28 +0.87%

15:41

Foreign exchange market. American session: the Australian dollar rose against the U.S. dollar after the weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies after the weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data. U.S. final manufacturing purchasing managers' index declined to 57.3 in June from 57.5 in April. Analysts had expected the index to remain unchanged.

ISM manufacturing PMI in the U.S. decreased to 55.3 in June from 55.4 in May, missing expectations for a rise to 55.6.

Construction spending in the U.S. climbed 0.1% in May, missing expectations for a 0.5% gain, after 0.8% rise in April. April's figure was revised up from a 0.2% increase.

The euro traded slightly lower against the U.S. dollar after the weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data. Eurozone's unemployment rate remained unchanged at 11.6% in May. Analysts had expected an increase to 11.7%.

German unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7% in June, in line with expectations.

The German economy lost 9,000 jobs in June. Analysts had expected the economy to add 9,000 jobs.

German final manufacturing purchase managers' index declined to 52.0 in June from 52.3 in May, missing expectations for a rise to 52.4.

French final manufacturing purchase managers' index decreased to 48.2 in June from 49.6 in May, beating expectations for a drop to 47.8.

The British pound traded higher against the U.S. dollar after the weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data. The U.K. manufacturing purchase managers' index rose to 57.5 in June from 57.0 in May, beating forecasts of a decline to 56.7.

The Swiss franc traded mixed against the U.S. dollar after the weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data. The manufacturing purchase managers' index in Switzerland gained to 54.0 in June from 52.5 in May, beating expectations for a rise to 52.6.

The New Zealand dollar traded higher against the U.S dollar after the weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data and due to the strong manufacturing data from China. The Chinese manufacturing purchase managers' index increased to 51.0 in June from 50.8 in May, in line with expectations.

China's final HSBC manufacturing purchase managers' index declined to 50.7 in June from 50.8 in May. Analysts had forecasted the index to remain unchanged at 50.8.

The Australian dollar rose against the U.S. dollar after the weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its interest rate unchanged at a record low 2.5%. The RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said that the Australian dollar "offering less assistance than it might" in lifting economic growth.

RBA commodity prices decreased 9.6% in June, after a 12.8 drop in May.

AIG manufacturing index for Australia declined to 48.9 in June from 49.2 in May.

The Japanese yen traded mixed against the U.S. dollar after the weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data. Japan's Tankan manufacturing index was plus 12 in the second quarter, missing expectations for plus 16, after plus 17 the previous quarter. This was the first decline in six quarters.

Japan's Tankan non-manufacturing index was plus 19 in the second quarter, in line with expectations, after plus 24 the previous quarter.

Japan's average cash earnings climbed 0.8% in May, in line with expectations, after a 0.7% gain in April.

Japanese manufacturing purchase managers' index climbed to 51.5 in June from 51.1 in May.

15:40

Oil: an overview of the market situation

Prices of oil futures declined slightly today, having fallen under the influence of upbeat manufacturing data in China, and the tense situation in Iraq and in Ukraine.

As it became known, purchasing managers index was 51.0. Figure corresponds to the median estimate of analysts and increased compared to 50.8 in May. A similar index from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics rose to 50.7 compared with 49.4 in the previous month. In June, production in China grew at the fastest pace this year. This creates signs that the government's efforts to help stabilize the second largest economy in the world.

"The growth of the PMI index suggests that growth recovered in connection with the recent policy-oriented growth, including investments in infrastructure and the rapid financing of budgets", - said Liu Li-Gang, chief economist for Greater China in the Banking Group Australia New Zealand and Hong Kong. - "The recent promise premier Li Keqiang to achieve growth targets shows that the overall position of politicians will be more conducive to growth in the second half of the year." Recall that on July 16, China will publish data on GDP for the second quarter. It is expected that the economy grew by 7.4% compared with a year earlier.

"Markets need a catalyst that would set the direction of prices. Course, need to monitor the situation in Iraq and the Ukraine, but the economic data, including the United States, point to improvements in the global economy," - said OptionsXpress analyst Ben Le Brun.

Market participants are also waiting for the publication of a weekly report on crude oil inventories in the United States. Experts expect a decline in U.S. oil inventories for the previous week by 2.5 million barrels. A week earlier, the Ministry of Energy reported an increase in stocks at the terminal at Cushing, which stores the physical quantities of oil, 416 thousand barrels. Increase was the third in the last five months, and the level of reserves at the terminal close to the minimum five years.

"Regarding the positive dynamics of quotations WTI is largely due to expectations reduce inventories, - said the head of Mizuho Securities futures Bob Yeager. - Provisions on the terminal in Cushing falling at an alarming rate. "

Traders also expected employment data in the U.S., which will be published on Thursday. According to analysts, the number of jobs in June increased by 211,000, and if the forecast is confirmed, the increase in the number of jobs exceeds 200,000 the fifth month in a row, which has not happened since September 1999, January 2000.

Cost of the August futures on U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) fell to $ 105.25 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).

August futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mixture fell 13 cents to $ 112.20 a barrel on the London exchange ICE Futures Europe.

15:20

Gold: an overview of the market situation

Gold prices rose slightly, reaching maximum values at the same time the end of March, due to the weakness of the U.S. dollar and growing tensions in Iraq. Recall that the market closed yesterday, rising to the second quarter in a row, and in June showed the best result since February.

"In this quarter, we expect higher gold prices, or even their growth due to great uncertainty," - said Phillip Futures investment analyst Howie Lee. According to him, the resistance level for gold - $ 1365 per ounce, and the level of support - $ 1189.

Gold is also supported by geopolitical problems. Iraqi army is trying to dislodge Sunni insurgents from Tikrit and Ukraine renewed offensive against pro-Russian separatists in the east of the country after the end of the truce. It should be noted that due to local wars in Iraq and Ukraine gold has risen in price by 10 percent since the beginning of the year.

Experts point out that in the coming days will be determined by the prospects of gold widely anticipated report from the U.S. labor market, the publication of which is scheduled for Thursday. It may surprise the market, both for better and for worse. In the first case, possible sale of gold on a background of concerns about the return policy tightening by the Federal Reserve System. In the second case, buying gold is likely to continue due to expectations of a longer period of soft U.S. central bank policy.

Meanwhile, adding that the investment demand for gold has also increased, which further supports the demand for gold futures. As it became known, the world's largest reserves secured gold exchange-traded fund SPDR Gold Trust on Monday rose by 5.68 tons to 790.70 tons, indicating the growth of investment demand. In general, in the II quarter of the volume of deposits decreased by 37 t On the other hand, during the same period last year, the volume of deposits in the funds has fallen by more than 400 tonnes demand in the physical market, however, decreases with increasing prices. Prices in China for $ 1 per ounce lower than the world.

The cost of the August gold futures on the COMEX today rose to $ 1330.8 per ounce.

14:50

Reserve Bank of Australia kept its interest rate unchanged at a record low 2.5%

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its interest decision on Tuesday:

The RBA kept its interest rate unchanged at a record low 2.5%. This decision was expected by market participants;
The economic growth should be below trend over the year.

The RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said: