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01.07.2011
18:46
Dow +151.25 at 12565.59, Nasdaq +38.38 at 2811.90, S&P +16.18 at 1336.82

The stock market's steady climb continues. As a result, the stock market is on pace for another gain of more than 1%. This session's move has the S&P 500 up 5.4% for the week. That ties the week ended July 9, 2010 for the best weekly performance of the past year.

18:31
Goldman now see downside risk to a 2% Q2 growth forecast.
18:06
Barclays on US consumer sentiment

Barclays is not very concerned about slippage in late June Michigan consumer sentiment, says "The rebound in equity markets and steadily declining gasoline prices will likely provide support for consumer sentiment in the coming month."

17:49
Dow +128.85 at 12543.19, Nasdaq +31.39 at 2804.91, S&P +2.78 at 1323.42

North America auto sales for June are trickling across news wires. Ford's (F 14.02, +0.23) sales in June increased by 14% from the prior year. General Motors (GM 30.70, +0.34) announced that its sales for June increased by 11% from the same period one year ago. Privately held Chrysler reported a 30% year-over-year increase.
Nissan (NSANY 21.19, +0.14) announced that its sales for June increased by 11% year over year. Volkswagen said its sales for June were up 35% from the prior year.

16:53
American focus:

The euro was poised for its first weekly gain in a month versus the dollar as Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou won approval for an austerity plan needed to keep aid flowing, while German banks agreed to roll over Greek bondholdings maturing through 2014. The Dollar Index was set for its biggest weekly drop since the first week of June.
“The risk of a default has really fallen significantly and Greece is moving in the right direction, so that’s why we’re seeing traders reduce their safe-haven bets and buy euros and other currencies,” said Kathy Lien, director of currency research with online currency trader GFT Forex in New York.
The European currency fell as much as 0.5 percent after Institute for Supply Management’s factory index showed U.S. manufacturing unexpectedly expanded at a faster pace in June. The measure rose to 55.3 last month from 53.5 in May, the Tempe, Arizona-based group said today.
“This is a really strong number for the U.S.,” said Mark McCormick, a New York-based currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. “You’re getting a little bit of selling pressure on the euro just based on how strong the U.S. ISM numbers were.”
The carry trade of selling dollars to buy the currencies of Norway, Australia, Canada and New Zealand has more than tripled this week as investor appetite for higher-yielding assets increases.
Canada’s dollar strengthened as much as 0.3 percent against its U.S. counterpart to the highest level since May 12.
The euro was supported as traders increased bets the European Central Bank will tighten monetary policy, pushing euribor futures lower. The implied yield on the March 2012 contract rose four basis points to 2.01 percent.
“The Europeans are trying to avoid default, but are not choosing devaluation; in the U.S., the Federal Reserve would rather see the dollar weaken and help create jobs and is assuming that won’t create too much inflation,” Kit Juckes, head of currency strategy at Societe Generale SA in London, said during a radio interview on “Bloomberg Surveillance” with Tom Keene and Ken Prewitt.
“As long as that choice is there, unless there’s a disaster in the global economy that makes everyone just run and put their money under a mattress, then we will end up with a weaker dollar,” Juckes said.
Investors expect the ECB to increase interest rates by 76 basis points during the next year, up from a forecast 16 on June 22, according to a Credit Suisse Group AG index based on swaps.
ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet reiterated yesterday that policy makers are in a state of “strong vigilance” against inflation, highlighting chances of a rate increase at their meeting on July 7. The central bank raised its key rate in April for the first time in almost three years, lifting it by a quarter point to 1.25 percent.

16:40
Dow +122.07 at 12536.41, Nasdaq +27.05 at 2800.57, S&P +11.39 at 1332.03

Stocks are up markedly for the fifth straight session. That has the S&P 500 on pace for a weekly gain of 5.0%, which is actually the stock market's best weekly performance since a 5.4% advance during the week ended July 9, 2010.
The sharp march higher comes after stocks had spent several weeks stuck in a steady backslide. Prior to this week's advance, the stock market booked only weekly losses since April, save for one week in which the stock market mustered an incremental move higher.

16:08
Ford Motor Co's Jun sales +14% y/y
16:08
Dow +110.99 at 12525.33, Nasdaq +22.05 at 2795.57, S&P +9.80 at 1330.44

The major market averages are resting on solid gains. For the second straight session, industrials are among the best performers. As a group, industrial plays are up 1.2%.
Consumer discretionary stocks are also in strong shape this session. Their 1.1% gain has been led by Darden Restaurants (DRI 51.68, +1.92) and Apollo Group (APOL 46.98, +3.30). Shares of DRI are up in the wake of news that the company posted in-line earnings and hiked its dividend 34% to $0.43 per share. As for APOL, its shares are up sharply in response to news of a better-than-expected bottom line for the latest quarter.

15:44
Dow +110.99 at 12525.33, Nasdaq +22.05 at 2795.57, S&P +9.80 at 1330.44

The major market averages are resting on solid gains. For the second straight session, industrials are among the best performers. As a group, industrial plays are up 1.2%.
Consumer discretionary stocks are also in strong shape this session. Their 1.1% gain has been led by Darden Restaurants (DRI 51.68, +1.92) and Apollo Group (APOL 46.98, +3.30). Shares of DRI are up in the wake of news that the company posted in-line earnings and hiked its dividend 34% to $0.43 per share. As for APOL, its shares are up sharply in response to news of a better-than-expected bottom line for the latest quarter.

15:44
Nomura: rising mfg ISM is "consistent with the easing of supply disrtuptions" and says mfg could continue to strengthen ahead.
14:55
GM: June U.S. sales gained 11% on strong demand for fuel-efficient vehicles
14:33
EUR/USD rose at $1.4490 zone

Rebound off lows stretches to $1.4490 area as the bounce in US stocks encourages risk-trades and offsets the lift to the dollar from firmer US yields. Euro likely to encounter resistance around $1.4500 area of early US session highs, also at $1.4530 area ahead of offers at $1.4550/55 area. Euro last $1.4498.

14:16
Dow 12,506.97 +92.63 +0.75%, Nasdaq 2,792 +18.02 +0.65%, S&P 500 1,328.52 +7.88 +0.60%
14:00
US DATA: June mfg ISM 55.3
13:55
US DATA: June final Rtrs-U/Mich consumer sentiment 71.5
13:43
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD: $1.4400, $1.4410, $1.4500, $1.4550
USD/JPY: Y80.75, Y80.95, Y81.05, Y81.10, Y81.55
EUR/JPY: Y117.85, Y115.85, Y115.65, Y114.90
GBP/USD: $1.5995, $1.6030, $1.6130
AUD/USD: $1.0705, $1.0685, $1.0675, $1.0650, $1.0625
EUR/AUD: A$1.3530, A$1.3535, A$1.3550
AUD/JPY: Y85.00
NZD/USD: $0.8130
NZD/CAD: C$0.7845

13:36
US Stocks open: Dow -5.00 12,409.34 -0.04%, Nasdaq -3.54 2,769.98 -0.13%, S&P -2.08 1,318.56 -0.16%
13:22
Before the bell: U.S. stock futures were little changed

U.S. stock futures were little changed  before a report that may show manufacturing expanded at a slower pace in June.
A report today  may show that manufacturing expanded in June at a slower pace as shortages of parts and components from Japan prompted factories to limit production. The Institute for Supply Manangement’s manufacturing index fell to 52 last month, its lowest level since August 2009, according to the median estimate of economists. Figures greater than 50 signal expansion.
The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan’s final survey of consumer confidence  will show a reading of 72, compared with a preliminary reading of 71.8, according to the median estimate of economists.
In corporate news:
Shares of Eastman Kodak tumbled 16% after the U.S. International Trade Commission ruled against the company in its patent dispute with Apple Inc. and Research in Motion. 
Currently S&P futeres at 1315.50 (0.0%). Crude oil futures fell below $95 a barrel, while gold futures slide to around $1,490 an ounce. 

12:39
DB: "Chi PMI was better than expected and strongly suggests that mfg activity got a significnat boost from improving auto sector conditions." They upped their est to 53.
12:23
European session: the franc and pound fell

Data:

07:55 Germany PMI (June) seasonally adjusted 54.6 
08:00 EU(17) PMI (June) 52.0 
08:30 UK CIPS manufacturing index (June) 51.3 
09:00 EU(17) Unemployment (May) 9.9% 

The pound fell to a 15-month low against the euro as a report showed U.K. manufacturing growth unexpectedly slowed in June, adding to evidence that the economic recovery is faltering.
A gauge of factory output dropped to 51.3 in June from 52.1 in May, Markit Economics and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply said today. That’s the lowest level since September 2009.
Britain’s currency slid against the euro yesterday on bets a faltering economy will limit policy makers’ ability to raise interest rates, at the same time that the European Central Bank lifts borrowing costs to curb inflation. A report yesterday showed U.K. consumer confidence fell more than economists forecast in June while the Bank of England’s Credit Conditions Survey said mortgage demand will drop in the third quarter.
The Swiss franc weakened against 16 of its major peers as investors sought higher-yielding currencies amid confidence policy makers and bankers have staved off a Greek default.

EUR/USD: the pair holds in $1.4465-$ 1.4550.
GBP/USD: the pair shown high  in $1.6090 area then decreased in $1.6000 area. 
USD/JPY: the pair holds in Y80.55-Y80.90.

In US today's attention will be on final reading of Michigan sentiment index, ISM Mfg PMI and Construction spending.

11:47
Orders:

EUR/USD:
Ордера на продажу $1.4600, $1.4580/85, $1.4555/60, $1.4555
Ордера на покупку $1.4455/45, $1.4420/15, $1.4380/70 

11:18
EUR/USD:

Eases back below $1.4500 into early NY trade, the rate trading around $1.4490 at posting. Demand sitting at $1.4480 supported an earlier dip, with residual interest suggested to remain in place.

10:44
European focus: The pound fell

 

The pound fell to a 15-month low against the euro as a report showed U.K. manufacturing growth unexpectedly slowed in June, adding to evidence that the economic recovery is faltering.
A gauge of factory output dropped to 51.3 in June from 52.1 in May, Markit Economics and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply said today. That’s the lowest level since September 2009.
“Sterling is being completely marginalized by the worsening economic growth outlook in the U.K.,” said Peter Rosenstreich, chief foreign-exchange analyst at Swissquote Bank SA in Geneva. “If we continue to see an erosion in growth prospects then the possibility of rate hikes is virtually out of the question.”
Britain’s currency slid against the euro yesterday on bets a faltering economy will limit policy makers’ ability to raise interest rates, at the same time that the European Central Bank lifts borrowing costs to curb inflation. A report yesterday showed U.K. consumer confidence fell more than economists forecast in June while the Bank of England’s Credit Conditions Survey said mortgage demand will drop in the third quarter.

 

10:00
EUR/USD drops below $1.4500

Drops below $1.4500 as market reacts to the move in this weekend's meeting to Saturday at 1600GMT, from Sunday. Rate found support around $1.4485 bhut seen holding heavy below the figure. Support has been noted between $1.4485/80 ahead of the overnight low at $1.4467.

09:34
FTSE 5,960 +0.24%, CAC 3,978 -0.11%, DAX 7,383 +0.09%
09:17
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD: $1.4400, $1.4410, $1.4500, $1.4550
USD/JPY: Y80.75, Y80.95, Y81.05, Y81.10, Y81.55
EUR/JPY: Y117.85, Y115.85, Y115.65, Y114.90
GBP/USD: $1.5995, $1.6030, $1.6130
AUD/USD: $1.0705, $1.0685, $1.0675, $1.0650, $1.0625
EUR/AUD: A$1.3530, A$1.3535, A$1.3550
AUD/JPY: Y85.00
NZD/USD: $0.8130
NZD/CAD: C$0.7845

09:01
EU: Unemployment 9.9% in May
08:45
Reaction on news:

GBP/USD falls after a weaker than forecast UK mfg PMI data (51.3 versus median 51.5). Rate fell to the lows around $1.6003 and currentl trades near $1.6011.

08:30
UK: CIPS/Markit Jun mfg PMI 51.3
08:15
Asian session: Euro heads for first weekly gain in a month

The euro was poised for its first weekly gain in a month versus the dollar as traders increased bets the European Central Bank will tighten monetary policy and Greece progressed in staving off a default.
The euro headed for a weekly advance after Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou won approval to implement an austerity plan needed to keep aid flowing to his nation.
“An interest-rate hike next week is pretty much a done deal for the ECB,” said Khoon Goh at ANZ National Bank Ltd.. “The yield differential will continue to provide support for the euro.”
The dollar was set to rise for a second week versus the yen before a report forecast to show U.S. consumer confidence was stronger than previously reported.  The Reuters/University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment was at 72 last month compared with a preliminary reading of 71.8, according to the median estimate of economists.
“I’m bullish on the dollar toward the year-end,” said Kengo Suzuki at Mizuho Securities Co.. “The U.S. economic slowdown is temporary.”
The New Zealand dollar weakened for the first time in four days versus the dollar after data showed Chinese manufacturing expanded in June by less than economists had estimated, sapping demand for higher-yielding assets.
The yen was headed for a weekly decline on prospects the Bank of Japan will lag behind its counterparts in raising interest rates.
The quarterly Tankan index of sentiment at large manufacturers fell to minus 9 in June from 6 in March, the BOJ said today. The median estimate of economists was for a reading of minus 7.

EUR/USD printed session highs on $1.4550 before retreated to $1.4508.
GBP/USD tested $1.6095, but failed to break above the figure and retreated to current $1.6070.
USD/JPY fell to session low at Y80.54 before recovered to Y80.80.

Today's focus will be on UK PMI report in Europe.
In US today's attention will be on final reading of Michigan sentiment index, ISM Mfg PMI and Construction spending.


07:59
EUROZONE: Jun mfg PMI 52.0
07:54
GERMANY: Jun mfg PMI 54.6
07:49
FRANCE: Jun mfg PMI 52.5
07:45
ITALY: Jun mfg PMI 49.9
07:31
Switzerland: SVME - Purchasing Managers' Index (Jun) 53.4
07:28
CHINA stocks closed lower Friday: The Shanghai Composite Index ended down 0.10% at 2759.36.
07:15
GBP/USD holds higher

GBP/USD rose to current $1.6085 after testing session high on $1.6096. Offers in place between $1.6095/00, a break to open a move toward Thursday's Asian high at $1.6118, with offers extending to $1.6120.

06:45
Stocks: Thursday's review

Majors close:
Nikkei 225 +18.83 +0.19% 9,816.09
FTSE 100 +89.76 +1.53%     5,945.71
CAC 40     +57.98     +1.48%     3,982.21
DAX +82.10 +1.13% 7,376.24
Dow     +152.39 +1.24% 12,413.81
Nasdaq     +33.03     +1.21% 2,773.52
S&P 500 +13.17     +1.01% 1,320.58
Oil     $95.13     -0.29     -0.30%
Gold     $1,502.10 -0.70 -0.05%


Japanese stocks rose for a third day after Greece passed austerity measures needed to secure aid from the European Union, and as utilities advanced on expectations they’ll be allowed to restart nuclear plants.
Sony Corp. gained 3%.
Kyushu Electric Power Co. and other utilities advanced after Kyodo News said a local government has agreed to the restart of halted reactors.
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. climbed 2.1% after Deutsche Bank AG raised its rating on the sector.


European stocks rose, posting the biggest two-day gain for the Stoxx Europe 600 Index in almost seven months, as Greek lawmakers approved a bill authorizing austerity measures, qualifying the country for further aid.
London Stock Exchange Group Plc (LSE) jumped 11% after scrapping its bid for TMX Group Inc. and UBS AG said the bourse may now be a bid target.
Lloyds Banking Group Plc (LLOY) surged 9.7% after the U.K.’s biggest mortgage lender said it will make savings of 1.5 billion pounds ($2.4 billion) by 2014.

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou won a second ballot to execute measures ranging from tax increases to asset sales today after he clinched victory on a bill setting out his strategy to cut the deficit yesterday. A total of 155 lawmakers in the 300-seat parliament supported the law.

U.S. stocks rallied, giving the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index its biggest four-day gain since December, amid increased optimism Greece will avoid default and after American business activity improved.
Industrial, technology and raw material companies led gains in the S&P 500, rising at least 0.9%, as investors bought stocks tied to economic growth.
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), United Technologies Corp. (UTX) and 3M Co. (MMM) climbed at least 1.8% to help the Dow Jones Industrial Average erase its quarterly loss.
Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ) added 3.1% after a report that private-equity firms want the computer maker to split up.

Stocks extended gains after the Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. said its business barometer climbed to 61.1 this month from 56.6 in May. Economists called for the index to drop to 54.
Consumer confidence rose to the highest level in 10 weeks, the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index showed.


06:25
JAPAN stocks closed higher

Japan's benchmark stock indices ended Friday's session higher, but shy of the best levels. The Nikkei 225 was up 51.98 points, or 0.53%, to stand at 9868.07. The broader-based TOPIX was up 4.36 points at 853.58.

06:24
OIL: Prices declined in Asian today towards $94.50 per barrel. Support is seen at $93.27 and $91.13 with resistance at $96.20 and $97.57.
06:07
Forex: Thursday's review

The euro climbed to the highest in almost three weeks against the dollar on prospects the European Central Bank will increase interest rates next week to curb inflation and as European ministers are set to approve the next aid payment due to Greece.
The case for higher rates was strengthened as data showed European consumer-price growth was above the ECB’s 2% target for a seventh month. The inflation rate remained at an initially estimated 2.7% for a second month in June, statistics showed today.
A separate report showed German unemployment declined for a 24th straight month in June.
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou won approval of a second bill to authorize his 78 billion-euro ($113 billion) package of budget cuts and asset sales, a key to receiving further international financial aid.
German banks have agreed to roll over about 2 billion euros in the Greek bonds they’re holding that mature through 2014, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said.
ECB President Trichet repeated that policy makers are in a state of “strong vigilance” ahead of the July 7 meeting, a phrase he has used before tightening monetary policy in the past.
The pound slid to the least in more than 15 months against the euro as reports showed U.K. consumer confidence fell this month. Moreover, the house prices were little changed, limiting the scope for interest-rate increases.
The average cost of a home was 168,205 pounds ($270,255), compared with 167,208 pounds in May, when it rose 0.3%.
Consumer confidence fell to minus 25 from minus 21 last month, GfK NOP said in a separate report, below the minus 24 median estimate.
Bank of England policy maker Adam Posen on June 27 dismissed a call by the Bank for International Settlements for tighter monetary policy worldwide to curb inflation as “nonsense”.

EUR/USD recovered to $1.4540 following the decline to $1.4445. But later rate corrected to $1.4500.

GBP/USD initially fell to $1.5970 from $1.6110. Later pound back to $1.6100.

USD/JPY sharply rose from Y80.25 to Y80.86 before rate retreated to Y80.40.

Today's focus will be on PMI reports from France, Germany, EMU and UK.
In US today's attention will be on final reading of Michigan sentiment index, ISM Mfg PMI and Construction spending.



05:35
Tech on USD/JPY
Resistance 3: Y81.80
Resistance 2: Y81.40
Resistance 1: Y80.90
Current price: Y80.69
Support 1:Y80.40
Support 2:Y80.20
Support 3:Y79.70 

          


Comments:  Rate consolidates with interim support comes at hourly low on Y80.40, stronger - at Y80.20 (channel line from Jun 08). Below losses may widen to Jun 08 lows at Y79.70. Resistance is around Y80.90 (session high), stronger resistance comes at channel line at Y81.40. Above the rise may extend to Y81.80 (May 31 high).


05:22
Tech on USD/CHF
Resistance 3: Chf0.8550
Resistance 2: Chf0.8520
Resistance 1: Chf0.8460
Current price: Chf0.8415
Support 1: Chf0.8370
Support 2: Chf0.8300
Support 3: Chf0.8270


Comments: Dollar broke above the downward channel from Jun 16 and currently consolidates after a sharp rise in NY yesterday. Minor resistance is at session highs on Chf0.8460 with stronger level comes at Chf0.8520 (channel linen from Jun 06 and trend line from Feb highs cross here). Support is around Chf0.8370 (Jun 29 highs). Below losses may widen to Chf0.8300 (Jun 30 lows) and then - to Chf0.8270 (channel support line from Jun 06).

05:16
Daily history for Jun 30'2011:
Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 +18.83 +0.19% 9,816.09
FTSE 100 +89.76 +1.53%     5,945.71
CAC 40     +57.98     +1.48%     3,982.21
DAX +82.10 +1.13% 7,376.24
Dow     +152.39 +1.24% 12,413.81
Nasdaq     +33.03     +1.21% 2,773.52
S&P 500 +13.17     +1.01% 1,320.58
Oil     $95.13     -0.29     -0.30%
Gold     $1,502.10 -0.70 -0.05%

05:03
Schedule for today, Friday, Jul 01'2011:

07:45     Italy     PMI (June)         50.6    52.8
07:50     France     PMI (June)         52.5    54.9
07:55     Germany     PMI (June) seasonally adjusted         54.9    57.7
08:00     EU(17)     PMI (June)         52.0    54.6
08:30     UK     CIPS manufacturing index (June)         52.7    52.1
09:00     EU(17)     Unemployment (May)         9.9%    9.9%
      Canada     National Day              
13:55     USA     Michigan sentiment index (June) final         72.0    71.8
14:00     USA     ISM Mfg PMI (June)         52.0    53.5
14:00     USA     Construction spending (May)         0.0%    0.4%

04:59
Tech on GBP/USD
Resistance 3: $ 1.6330
Resistance 2: $ 1.6260
Resistance 1: $ 1.6090
Current price: $1.6065
Support 1 : $1.5970
Support 2 : $1.5910
Support 3 : $1.5800


Comments: Pound holds higher, heading for a strong resistance at $1.6090 (channel resistance line fron Jun14). Above there is a chance to probe $1.6260 (Jun 22 high). Key resistance is at $1.6330 (channel line from May 02). Support is near $1.5970 (Jun 30 lows). Below rate may get down to $1.5910. Support lines from Jun 14 and May 02 cross at $1.5805/95 (strong support).

04:48
Tech on EUR/USD
Resistance 3: $ 1.4700
Resistance 2: $ 1.4650
Resistance 1: $ 1.4530
Current price: $1.4516
Support 1 : $1.4430
Support 2 : $1.4320
Support 3 : $1.4130


Comments: Rate remains within the triangle pattern on 4-hour charts, limited today by $1.4530/$1.4130 (strong resistance/support respectively). Currently rate holds a bit lower the upper bound with a risk of challenging it. Break above opena the way up to $1.4650 and then - to Jun 07 high at $1.4700. Minor support is near $1.4430 (23.6% of the rise from $1.4100). Below rate may weaken to $1.4320 (50%). Further support comes at $1.4130.

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