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01.06.2011
19:26
GREECE: Moodys downgrades Greece to Caa1, sees incrising risk that it will fail to stabilize its debt.
18:53
Dow -220.96 at 12348.83, Nasdaq -50.91 at 2784.39, S&P -23.97 at 1321.23

The major market averages trade near their worst levels of the day with the S&P 500 off 1.8%. Today's weakness in equities has led investors to the safety of Treasuries. Treasuries finished the day with strong gains, but off their best levels of the session amid poor economic data.

18:36
GBP/USD refreshed lows

GBP/USD printed fresh lows for the day around $1.6344 after the London close after triggering demand interest around $1.6380 and then - at $1.6360/50. Currently rate holds around $1.6362.

18:18
DB cuts Payrolls

Analysts at DB say "today's weak data point to a nonfarm payroll gain of +160k, down from our previous estimate of +225k which we cut last week from +300k. We are leaving our estimate of the unemployment rate at 8.9% (-0.1%)".


18:05
Techs on oil:

NYMEX July light sweet crude oil futures (WTI) are off $2.29 at $100.22 per barrel, after trading in a $101.54 to $103.31 range. To resume the upward trend the prices should vault its 55-day moving average (currently at $104.94). The front contract last closed above its 55-day May 4. The 100-day, at $99.37, will act as initial support.

17:40
EUR/USD fell

EUR/USD fell under the figure and currently holds around fresh lows near $1.4370/80 area as euro longs are closed. Pair exposed bids at $1.4380. Further bids expected $1.4360/50.

17:32
Dow -189.55 at 12380.24, Nasdaq -36.33 at 2798.97, S&P -19.46 at 1325.74

U.S. equities have slipped to their lowest levels of the day with the Dow trading down 1.5% to lead the major averages lower.
Gold miners are one of the few positives today, responding to the yellow metal's move above $1550 per ounce. Despite the underlying strength in gold some of the large cap gold miners such as Barrick Gold (ABX 47.68, -0.08) and Newmont Mining (NEM 56.11, -0.46) have recently slipped into negative territory. However, smaller miners such as Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM 65.02, +0.32) and Kinross Gold (KGC 15.86, +0.14) continue to hold modest gains.

17:12
US focus: Dollar falls after reports of U.S. economic slowing

The dollar dropped to the lowest in three weeks as reports showed slower-than-forecast jobs growth and reduced factory output, adding to concern the U.S. economy is slowing.
The U.S. currency weakened after a private survey showed employment increased by 38,000 last month, the smallest gain since September and a measure of manufacturing output in May declined more than forecast.

U.S. employment increased last month after a revised 177,000 gain in April, according to figures from ADP Employer Services. The median estimate called for a 175,000 advance for May.
The Labor Department will release May unemployment figures June 3. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. revised its estimate today for an increase in May nonfarm payrolls to 100,000 from 150,000, while Citigroup Inc. trimmed its projection to 100,000 from 170,000.
The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index fell to 53.5 in May from 60.4 the prior month. Economists projected the gauge would drop to 57.1.
“Weak data equals a weak dollar,” said Ray Attrill, a senior currency strategist at BNP Paribas SA. “It’s not surprising to see the dollar weaken substantially on the basis of the data.”
The Swiss franc strengthened as retail sales rose in April at the fastest rate in two years, boosting speculation the Swiss National Bank may raise borrowing costs. Retail sales climbed 7.5% in the year after a 0.2% drop in March, the most since April 2009.

16:45
Option expiries for Thursday's 1400GMT cut,

EUR/USD: $1.4350, $1.4500, $1.4250, $1.4225
USD/JPY: Y80.30, Y81.15, Y81.25, Y81.40, Y81.60, Y81.70, Y82.00
EUR/JPY: Y117.05, Y117.40, Y117.50, Y118.00
GBP/USD: $1.6470, $1.6490, $1.6210
AUD/USD: $1.0800, $1.0820, $1.0615, $1.0610
GBP/AUD: A$1.5230

16:11
Dow -153.07 at 12416.72, Nasdaq -27.04 at 2808.26, S&P -15.46 at 1329.74

The major market averages continue to hover near their worst levels of the day with the Dow holding losses of close to 1.2%.
Shares of Microsoft (MSFT 24.58, -0.43) and Nokia (NOK 6.68, -0.34) are in focus today after technology blog Boy Genius reported that Microsoft was set to purchase Nokia's phone business for $19 billion. A Nokia spokesman has denied the reports, calling them "100% baseless." Nonetheless both stocks are seeing heavy volume.

15:14
USD/CAD retreats
USD/CAD holds around C$0.9720 after challenging resistance at C$0.9750/55. Support comes at C$0.9670, further - around C$0.9655/50. Stronger support comes at C$0.9640.
15:00
SMRA have cut preliminary May payroll estimate to +100,000 from +200,000.
14:36
CS cuts Payrolls estimate

Analysts at CS cut non-farm payrolls data forecast, saying "We are lowering our nonfarm payroll estimate to 120K (from 185K) and our private payroll estimate to 135K (from 200K). The ADP figures were significantly different than our prior forecasts. ADP has been weaker than the official private payrolls 12 of the last 14 months, so the BLS number is likely to print above ADP."

14:18
TD Securities on US jobs

ТD Securities calls the +38k May ADP jobs "a horror show" and says this "was the lowest since last September... exceptionally weak. At face value, it would suggest that private payrolls are likely to be around +100k, and not the +200k expected going into this number."

14:07
US: May mfg ISM data

prices paid 76.5, new orders 51.0 vs 61.7, employment 58.2 vs 62.7, production 54.0 vs 63.8.

14:03
US: April construction spending +0.4%
14:01
US: May mfg ISM 53.5 vs 60.4 April.
13:38
Orders desk:

EUR/USD
Offers:
$1.4420/25, $1.4450, $1.4480/500
Bids:
$1.4380, $1.4360/50, $1.4325/20, $1.4300/290

13:26
Before the bell:

May went out with a bang but June is headed for a sluggish start, with U.S. stock futures barely changed ahead of the opening bell.
Investors are digesting the latest reports on the state of the U.S. job market, and awaiting a couple of reports about manufacturing in the United States. Earlier, manufacturing reports from China and the U.K. signaled a slowdown in the pace of growth.
The rally in U.S. stocks regained momentum Tuesday afternoon, but the day's gains weren't enough to lift the market out of the red for the month.
The market's performance in May was the worst since August 2010. The Dow tumbled nearly 2% for the month, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq lost 1.3% as investors wrestled with signs of a slower economic recovery.
Economy: The first of this week's jobs-related economic reports showed that the pace of planned job cuts edged higher in May, according to a report from outplacement consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
A separate report, also released Wednesday morning, by ADP showed private-sector payrolls added a modest 38,000 jobs in May. The number falls well below the 170,000 private sector jobs economists were expecting.
Both sets of data are typically used to forecast the government's monthly jobs data, which is due Friday.
At 14:00 GMT the Institute for Supply Management will release its May manufacturing index, and the Commerce Department will issue its April construction spending report.
The ISM Index is expected to slip to 57.6 from April's reading of 60.4, while construction spending is expected to decrease 0.5%.
Companies: Shares of Finnish mobile phone giant Nokia (NOK) fell almost 10% in premarket trade, after Nokia issued a sales warning Tuesday saying it expects device sales to come in "substantially below" its quarterly estimates. Company shares plunged 14% in the previous session.
World markets:

Oil for July delivery slipped 5 cents to $102.65 a barrel.
Gold futures for August delivery fell $3 to $1,532.90 an ounce.
The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury was little changed, with the yield 3.06%.

12:57
EU REHN: Spreads show Spain has convinced market
12:46
EU REHN: Repeats 'restructuring is not part of our plan'
12:35
EU REHN: European recovery going forward, maintaining momentum
  • Stress tests to unveil 'pockets of vulnerability'
12:17
US: May ADP pvt payrolls +38k.
12:16
European session:
Data:
01:00 China Manufacturing PMI (May) 52.0
01:30 Australia Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q1) 1.0%
01:30 Australia Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q1) -1.2%

07:55     Germany     Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing     May     62.0     58.2     57.7
08:00     Eurozone     Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing     May     58.0     54.8     54.6
08:30     United Kingdom     Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing     May     54.4     54.0     52.1
08:30     United Kingdom     Consumer credit, bln     April     0.1     0.3     0.1

The euro erased an advance versus the dollar on speculation European Union officials may seek to encourage bondholders to continue lending to Greece.
Investors may be offered preferred status, higher coupon payments or collateral as inducements to buy bonds replacing Greek debt maturing between 2012 and 2014, said two people with knowledge of discussions by policy makers, who declined to be identified because the talks are in progress.
So-called negative incentives are also under consideration, such as cutting off old Greek bonds from eligibility for use as collateral with the European Central Bank, the people said.

In the morning the dollar fell to a three-week low against the euro before reports likely to show U.S. companies hired fewer workers and manufacturing cooled.
The U.S. currency declined against 13 of its 16 most-traded peers before the private ADP Employers Services report is released today, followed by Labor Department figures on June 3.
Australia’s dollar strengthened against all its major counterparts after a government report showed the economy shrank last quarter by less than some analysts forecast.
The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index, due today in the U.S., probably fell to 57.1 last month, the lowest since October, according to the survey median. Readings above 50 signal expansion.
The euro reached the highest level in more than a week against the British pound as concern eased that Greece will default on its debt and on speculation that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates to curb inflation.
Greece is close to an agreement with the European Commission, ECB and the International Monetary Fund on a fiscal plan and privatization program, Kathimerini newspaper reported, citing people close to Prime Minister George Papandreou. Details are expected to be settled by tonight or tomorrow morning, the newspaper said.


EUR/USD: the pair traded within the limits of $1.4383-$1.4440.

GBP/USD: the pair eased to $1.6380 before gained up to $1.6430.
USD/JPY:
  traded within the limits of Y81.10/50.


US data starts at 1100GMT with the weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index, which is followed at 1130GMT by Challenger Layoffs and then at 1145GMT by the weekly ICSC-Goldman Store Sales data. Also today in the US, domestic-made light vehicle sales are expected to slow to a 9.7 million annual rate in May after the slight improvement in April. The seasonal adjustments factors for May tend to be one of the strictest, so raw sales will need to be strong to keep the seasonally adjusted selling rate steady or rising. US data continues with the 1215GMT relesae of the latest ADP National Employment Report.

11:46
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:
EUR/USD $1.4300, $1.4400, $1.4500 
USD/JPY Y80.85, Y81.50, Y81.70, Y82.00
EUR/JPY Y116.50, Y120.00

GBP/USD $1.6515
AUD/USD $1.0700, $1.0630
AUD/JPY Y85.00, Y88.30

11:33
US: Challenger reports 37,135 planned layoffs in May, up slightly from the 36,490 reported in April, but down from 38,810 in May 2010.
11:07
EUR/USD back under $1.4400

Back below $1.4400 and extends intraday lows to $1.4383 as euro pares gains ahead of the NY open. Support seen into $1.4380 ($1.4381 76.4% $1.4360/1.4448), ahead of $1.4360/50.

10:46
JPMorgan has pushed back its BoE rate hike forecast to November from August.

The SONIA swap curve is currently implying a 25bps rate hike in February 2012 at the earliest.

09:26
FTSE -0.20% 5,978, CAC -0.23% 3,998, DAX -0.25% 7,276
09:15
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.4300, $1.4400, $1.4500 
USD/JPY Y81.50, Y81.70
EUR/JPY Y116.50, Y120.00
AUD/USD $1.0630
AUD/JPY Y85.00, Y88.30

08:30
UK: May CIPS/Markit mfg PMI 52.1
08:22
Asian stock close:

Hang Seng -0.24% 23626.43
Shanghai Composite 0.0% 2743.57
Nikkei  +0.27%  9,720

08:18
Asian session:

Data:
01:00 China Manufacturing PMI (May) 52.0
01:30 Australia Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q1) 1.0%
01:30 Australia Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q1) -1.2%

The dollar fell to a three-week low against the euro before reports likely to show U.S. companies hired fewer workers and manufacturing cooled.
The U.S. currency declined against 13 of its 16 most-traded peers before the private ADP Employers Services report is released today, followed by Labor Department figures on June 3.
Australia’s dollar strengthened against all its major counterparts after a government report showed the economy shrank last quarter by less than some analysts forecast.
The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index, due today in the U.S., probably fell to 57.1 last month, the lowest since October, according to the survey median. Readings above 50 signal expansion.
The euro reached the highest level in more than a week against the British pound as concern eased that Greece will default on its debt and on speculation that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates to curb inflation.
Greece is close to an agreement with the European Commission, ECB and the International Monetary Fund on a fiscal plan and privatization program, Kathimerini newspaper reported, citing people close to Prime Minister George Papandreou. Details are expected to be settled by tonight or tomorrow morning, the newspaper said.


EUR/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1.4390-$ 1.4440.

GBP/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1.6440-$ 1.6480.
USD/JPY: the pair shown low in the field of Y81.10 then become stronger.

This morning also sees the Manufacturing PMI releases due, including the final May readings for France at 0648GMT, Germany at 0653GMT and the main EMU data at 0658GMT all of which are expected to confirm their preliminary readings. 
UK data at 0830GMT includes Bank of England lending data as well as the UK Manufacturing PMI data, which is expected to slip to a reading of 54.1.
There is a raft of US data due at 1400GMT, including the May ISM Index, Construction Spending and the latest Help-wanted Online data. The ISM manufacturing index is expected to fall to a reading of 58.0 in May from 60.4 in April. 
Construction spending is expected to rise 0.1% in April after the surprise 1.4% gain in March. Housing starts fell sharply in the month, so residential construction is expected to slow after surging in March on remodeling.
US data starts at 1100GMT with the weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index, which is followed at 1130GMT by Challenger Layoffs and then at 1145GMT by the weekly ICSC-Goldman Store Sales data. Also today in the US, domestic-made light vehicle sales are expected to slow to a 9.7 million annual rate in May after the slight improvement in April. The seasonal adjustments factors for May tend to be one of the strictest, so raw sales will need to be strong to keep the seasonally adjusted selling rate steady or rising. US data continues with the 1215GMT relesae of the latest ADP National Employment Report.

07:59
EUROZONE: May mfg PMI 54.6
07:54
GERMANY: May mfg PMI 57.7
07:34
Stocks: Tuesday's review

Japanese stocks climbed the most in two months as the yen fell amid optimism the European Union will do more to ease the region’s debt crisis and a report showed Japan’s industrial production is set to rebound.
Mazda Motor Corp. gained 1.5% as the euro rose against the yen.
Sony Corp. (6758) climbed 1.9% amid speculation the EU will offer further aid to Greece.
Fanuc Corp., a maker of industrial robots, rose 1.8% after a Trade Ministry report showed factory production may recover from March’s earthquake disaster as soon as next month.
Stocks rose today after Japanese manufacturers surveyed by the Trade Ministry said they plan to increase factory output 8% this month and a further 7.7% in June. If those plans materialize, the index that tracks Japan’s industrial production would rise to 97.1, just below February’s level of 97.9 before the quake.
European stocks climbed after the euro rallied to a three-week high as investors speculated that European officials will sanction additional financial assistance for Greece.
Inspectors from the European Union, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank plan to conclude their review of Greece’s progress in meeting the terms of last year’s 110 billion-euro ($158 billion) bailout in the coming days. The EU will then formulate its plan for additional aid.
Alpha Bank SA and EFG Eurobank Ergasias SA (EUROB) led a rally in Greek banks, climbing more than 8%.
Vestas Wind Systems A/S led alternative-energy stocks higher for a second day.
Steelmakers also advanced after Voestalpine AG (VOE) posted higher full-year profit.
Nokia Oyj (NOK1V) plunged 18% after the company cut its second-quarter and its full-year outlook for devices and services.
In Europe, German retail sales rose in April as unemployment fell below 3 million for the first time in almost 19 years. Separate figures showed that inflation in the euro area slowed in May to 2.7% from 2.8% in April.
The rally in U.S. stocks regained momentum Tuesday afternoon, but the day's gains weren't enough to lift the market out of the red for the month. In fact, the market's performance in May was the worst since August 2010. The Dow tumbled nearly 2% for the month, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq lost 1.3%.
All but one of the Dow's components posted gains, with Pfizer (PFE, Fortune 500), Cisco (CSCO, Fortune 500) and Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500) leading the advance.
Economy: According to the closely watched S&P Case-Shiller Index, home prices recently fell to their lowest levels since the housing bubble burst. Prices tumbled 4.2% in the first quarter, sending home prices back to levels not seen since mid-2002.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers index fell more than expected to 56.6 in May, from 67.6 the previous month. Economists were expecting the figure to slip to 62.5.
The Conference Board's consumer sentiment index declined to 60.8 in May, from 65.4 in April. Economists were expecting consumer confidence to rise to 66.3.
Companies: Shares of Nokia (NOK) tumbled 14%, after Nokia issued a sales warning that the second quarter will be lower than previously expected. The cell phone maker, which has been losing market share to Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) and Google (GOOG, Fortune 500), also lowered its full-year outlook.
Shares of Apple rose 3% after the company said that CEO Steve Jobs, who is on medical leave, will introduce the iCloud service during the Worldwide Developers Conference keynote on June 6 in San Francisco.

07:04
Tech on USD/JPY

 

Resistance 3: Y82.80 (Apr 27 high) 
Resistance 2: Y82.20 (around of May 19 and 24 high) 
Resistance 1: Y81.80 (May 31 high) 
Current price: Y81.32
Support 1:Y81.10 (session low)  
Support 2:Y80.70 (May 16 and 31 low)  
Support 3:Y80.20 (May 10 low)  
Comments: the pair decreased. The nearest support - Y81.10. Below losses are possible to Y80.70. The nearest resistance - Y81.80. Above growth is possible to Y82.20. 

 

07:01
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.8680 (50.0 % FIBO Chf0.8890-Chf0.8465, МА (200) for Н1)
Resistance 2: Chf0.8630 (38.2 % FIBO Chf0.8890-Chf0.8465)
Resistance 1: Chf0.8550 (May 31 high)
Current price: Chf0.8528
Support 1: Chf0.8465 (May 31 low)
Support 2: Chf0.8400 (psychological mark)
Support 3: Chf0.8300 (psychological mark)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of Chf0.8530. The nearest support - Chf0,8465. Below loss may extend to Chf0.8400. The nearest resistance Chf0.8550. Above is located Chf0.8630. 

06:48
Tech on GBP/USD

 

Resistance 3: $ 1.6575 (May 4 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.6550 (May 31 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6480 (session high)
Current price: $1.6468
Support 1 : $1.6420 (May 31 low)
Support 2 : $1.6360 (38.2 % FIBO $1.6060-$ 1.6550)
Support 2 : $1.6300 (50.0 % FIBO $1.6060-$ 1.6550)
Comments: the pair slightly grown. The nearest resistance - $1.6480. Above growth is possible to $1.6550. The nearest support $1.6420. Below decrease is possible to $1.6360. 

 

06:35
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.4590 (May 6 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.4565 (61.8 % FIBO $1.4940-$ 1.3960)
Resistance 1: $ 1.4440/50 (session high, 50.0 % FIBO $1.4940-$ 1.3960)
Current price: $1.4424
Support 1 : $1.4400 (support line from May 26) 
Support 2 : $1.4260 (May 30 low, 38.2 % FIBO $1.3960-$ 1.4440)
Support 3 : $1.4200 (50.0 % FIBO $1.3960-$ 1.4440, support line from May 23)

Comments: the pair grown. The nearest support $1,4260. Below losses are possible to $1.4200. The nearest resistance $1.4440/50. Above growth is possible to $1,4565. 

06:03
Schedule for today, Wednesday, Jun 01'2011:

01:00 China Manufacturing PMI (May) 52.0 51.6 52.9
01:30 Australia Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q1) 1.0% 1.8% 2.7%
01:30 Australia Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q1) -1.2% -0.3% 0.8%Revised from 0.7%
07:15 Switzerland Real Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr) 1.9% -0.2%
07:55 Germany PMI (May) seasonally adjusted 58.2 62.0
08:00 EU(17) PMI (May) 54.8 58.0
08:30 UK CIPS manufacturing index (May) 54.0 54.6
08:30 UK M4 money supply (April) final  0.1%
08:30 UK M4 money supply (April) final Y/Y  -1.2%
08:30 UK Consumer credit (April), bln 0.3 0.1
12:15 USA ADP employment (May) +178K +179K
14:00 USA ISM Mfg PMI (May) 58.0 60.4
14:00 USA Construction spending (April) 0.4% 1.4%

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