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01.04.2011
18:44
Dow +75.00 at 12394.73, Nasdaq +15.81 at 2796.88, S&P +9.14 at 1334.97

The stock market continues to sport a strong gain. The action build's on the S&P 500's first quarter gain of 5.4%, which was its best first quarter performance since 1998. It wasn't as impressive as the 10.2% that it gained during the fouth quarter, though. For comparison, the Dow put together a first quarter gain of 6.4% after it advanced 7.3% in the fourth quarter while the Nasdaq advanced 4.8% in the first quarter following its 12.0% climb in the fourth quarter.

18:05
Chrysler reports 33,643 car and 88,087 truck domestic auto sales for Mar.
18:04
Ford reports 80,255 Mar domestic auto sales.
17:45
Barclays: estimate for Q1 11 GDP stands at 2.0-2.5%.
17:13
American focus:

The dollar pared gains against the euro after New York Fed President William Dudley said not to be “overly optimistic about the growth outlook.”
Nonfarm payrolls rose by 216,000 in March and unemployment fell to a two-year low. The unemployment rate fell to 8.8 percent from 8.9 percent in February.
“We must not be overly optimistic about the growth outlook,” Dudley said. “A stronger recovery with more rapid progress toward our dual mandate objectives is what we have been seeking. This is welcome and not a reason to reverse course.”
The greenback dropped 5.5 percent against the euro in the first quarter as investors bet the European Central Bank will raise interest rates at the April 7 meeting and the Federal Reserve will fully carry out the $600 billion asset buying program through June.
Japan’s currency dropped to a 10- month low against the euro on speculation the Bank of Japan will lag behind its counterparts in raising interest rates. Currencies linked to U.S. growth, such as the Mexican peso and Canadian dollar, were the best performers against the dollar.
“We’re continuing to see the yen as one of the best ways of playing the positive reaction to this data,” said David Mann, the New York-based head of research in the Americas for Standard Chartered. “If you combine the data with the increasingly hawkish talk we’ve been getting recently from the Fed it could be raising expectations that Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke starts to be a little more upbeat in his comments which would be dollar-positive in the short term.”

16:57
Dow +90.56 at 12410.29, Nasdaq +18.02 at 2799.09, S&P +10.97 at 1336.80

The S&P 500 still has a few points to go before it will eclipse the 52-week high set in February. However, the Dow is now at a new bull market high. Bank of America (BAC 13.53, +0.20) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM 46.60, +0.50) have been primary drivers of the Dow's advance today. The two financial plays had lagged during most of the past week.

16:38
Nomura: "We think depressed construction activity will likely feed into Q1 GDP growth rate as our tracking estimate of Q1 GDP was revised down to 2.4%."
16:33
Aladdin Capital is revising its US unemployment forecast to 8.0% by end 2011.
16:04
Dow +92.18 at 12411.91, Nasdaq +19.13 at 2800.20, S&P +11.09 at 1336.92

Oil prices are back up to $107.64 per barrel, which is just $0.20 shy of the two-year high that was set earlier this morning. The run up in oil prices has helped the energy sector put together a 0.8% gain.
Cabot Oil (COG 54.34, +1.37) and Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD 104.20 +2.32) are top performers in the energy space. Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A 73.46, +0.60) isn't necessarily a leader, but the stock is still up solidly. The company announced that it has agreed to sell most of its downstream business in Chile to Quinenco for a total consideration of $614 million.

16:04
FED, Dudley: US recovery is better than 6 months ago but not as good as 1 month ago
  • Fed will keep close eye on infl expectations;
  • Jobs data were encouraging;
  • It's too soon to say what FOMC will or not do re exit;
  • Core infl may rise but should not go much higher
15:26
FED, Dudley: Core infl may rise but should not go much higher
15:25
FED, Dudley: It's too soon to say what FOMC will or not do re exit
15:24
FED, Dudley: Jobs data were encouraging
15:24
FED, Dudley: Fed will keep close eye on infl expectations
15:23
FED, Dudley: US recovery is better than 6 months ago but not as good as 1 month ago
15:00
HSBC on GDP

HSBC suggests "that GDP growth will pick up from an estimated 2.5% in Q1 to 3.4% in Q2."

14:45
EUR/USD recovers

EUR/USD lifts back to $1.4186 after falling to $1.4060 amid strong Payrolls data. Euro expected to find supply at $1.4200 area.

14:23
HFE on ISM

HFE says March ISM fell to 61.2 but is still very robust. Headline is consistent with GDP growth of about 6% but a lagging small business sector means GDP is slower. "ISM details are slightly disappointing, because the key new orders index dropped to 63.3 from 68.0, and that's enough to signal the headline slipping to 58 or so in the next couple of months. This might be due to the earthquake in Japan; note the export orders index dropped to a three-month low."


14:01
US: Feb construction spending -1.4%
13:46
FX: Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut,

EUR/USD  $1.4090, $1.4120, $1.4175, $1.4200
USD/JPY Y83.50, Y83.00, Y82.50, Y82.00
EUR/JPY Y116.25
EUR/GBP stg0.8800
USD/CHF Chf0.9200
AUD/USD $1.0300, $1.0220
EUR/AUD A$1.3850

13:22
Before the bell: Stocks head for gains after Payrolls

U.S. stocks were poised to open the second quarter higher, following the government's stronger-than-expected jobs report - one of the most closely-watched economic indicators on Wall Street.
The report showed a gain of 216,000 jobs in March - easily topping forecasts. The unemployment rate dipped to 8.8% - its lowest level in two years.

Investors were also digesting a new offer for the NYSE (NYX, Fortune 500) from Nasdaq (NDAQ) and ICE (ICE).
Dow Jones industrial average (INDU), S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq (COMP) futures were higher ahead of the opening bell.

Companies: Nasdaq and IntercontinentalExchange offered $42.50 a share, or $11.3 billion, for NYSE Euronext, topping the bid from rival Deutsche Boerse by nearly 19%. Shares of NYSE rose 10% in premarket trading to $39.10. Nasdaq's stock fell 4%, while shares of ICE slid 2.5%.
Also, major automakers including General Motors (GM), Ford (F, Fortune 500) and Toyota (TM) will release their monthly sales reports after the start of trade.
Economy: Also on tap for Friday morning, the Institute for Supply Management's March manufacturing index and the Commerce Department's February construction spending report will be released at 10 a.m.
Economists expect the ISM manufacturing index to remain steady at a reading of 61.4, while construction spending is expected to fall by 0.7%.
World markets: Asian markets ended the session mixed. The Shanghai Composite rose 1.3%, and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong added 1.2%. But Japan's Nikkei eased 0.5%, after a report showed auto sales in the nation plunged 37% in March.
European stocks rose in midday trading. Britain's FTSE 100 rose 1%, the DAX in Germany gained 1.2% and France's CAC 40 edged higher 0.8%.

13:15
HFE on Payrolls

HFE says +216k March payrolls incl 230K pvt jobs, "after a 240K Feb gain, making the best two months in exactly five years. Unemployment fell again".

12:46
Reaction on news:

Dollar gets a lift as NFP and unemployment both slightly top expectations. Currently EUR/USD challenges $1.4100 after exposing bids at $1.4120/25. Seems like euro may break the support at $1.4100.


12:33
US: Mar AHE +2% y/y
12:32
US: Mar Unemploy rate -0.1pt to 8.8%
12:31
US: Mar payrolls +216k
12:06
EU session review: Yen declines for seventh day ahead of US data

Data released
07:45     Italy     PMI (March)    56.2    58.2    59.0
07:50     France     PMI (March)    55.4    56.6    55.7
07:55     Germany     PMI (March) seasonally adjusted    60.9    60.9    62.7
08:00     EU(17)     PMI (March)    57.5    57.7    59.0
08:30     UK     CIPS manufacturing index (March)    57.1    60.8    61.5
09:00     EU(17)     Unemployment (February)    9.9%    9.9%    9.9%

The yen headed for its longest losing streak against the dollar since July 2005 and the Swiss franc declined amid speculation that global growth will be robust, boosting demand for higher-yielding assets.
Japan’s currency dropped to a 10-month low against the euro on speculation the Bank of Japan will keep interest rates on hold in the aftermath of the March 11 earthquake, while the European Central Bank begins a round of increases.
“In general, world economic growth is quite strong,” said Lutz Karpowitz, a currency strategist at Commerzbank AG. “The negative impacts on Japan’s debt levels from the earthquake are beginning to hit the yen.”
Large Japanese manufacturers forecast on average that the yen will trade at 84.20 per dollar in the year through March 2012, according to the Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey, released today. Almost three-quarters of the responses to the survey came by March 11, the day the magnitude-9.0 earthquake and ensuing tsunami struck the country.
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker said yesterday the central bank should review whether to reduce its planned purchase of $600 billion in Treasuries, a program known as quantitative easing, because of improving economic data.

EUR/USD holds tight today within the $1.4140/80 range.

GBP/USD fell from $1.6080 to the lows around $1.6005. Later rate recovered to $1.6038.

USD/JPY rose to Y83.85 after it fell for short-time to Y83.30.

The main release comes at 1230GMT, when non-farm payrolls are expected to rise 192,000 in March following the weather-related movements in the previous two months, as indicators such as weekly jobless claims point to continued improvement. Private payrolls are seen up 195,000. The unemployment rate is forecast to stay at 8.9% after three straight declines. Hourly earnings are expected to post a 0.2% rise following the flat February reading and the 0.4% January gain.
US data continues at 1400GMT with the ISM data and also Construction Spending. The ISM manufacturing index is expected to rise slightly to a reading of 61.5 in March from 61.4 in February. Regional data already released suggest that the pace of growth accelerated. Construction spending is forecast to fall 0.3% in February after declines in the previous two months on sharp non-residential construction contraction. Weather continued to be a factor in the data
in February. In addition, housing starts fell sharply in February, a negative for residential construction in this report.

11:57
Chinese mainland financial markets will be closed Monday and Tuesday for the Ching Ming holiday. Hong Kong markets will be closed only on Tuesday.
11:45
AUD/USD holds higher

AUD/USD holds around day's high of $1.0359 iahead of the March US employment data. Talk of barriers at $1.0375 and $1.0400. Traders also await next Tuesday's RBA rate meeting. Some bids envisaged $1.0315/20. Aussie trades $1.0357/59.

11:32
GOLD TECHS:

Gold struggles to go higher while daily studies points for slow down. Initial res seen from yesterday's high and Mar 2 high at $1439.3/1440. Initial key support seen from the 21 & 5-DMAs at $1423.1/1425.4.

11:00
EU focus: Yen pressured ahead of U.S. jobs

The yen fell on Friday to near a 10-month low against the euro and below its 200-day moving average versus the dollar on expectations for a strong U.S. jobs report, which could put further pressure on the currency.
Speculation was growing that non-farm payrolls data, due later on Friday, would be strong, reinforcing perceptions that U.S. economic recovery is on track and widening the yield differentials between dollar and yen assets further.
Analysts are forecasting that the U.S. economy will add 190,000 jobs in March. The data comes a day after hawkish comments from a U.S. Federal Reserve official gave traders more reason to think the Fed will raise interest rates before the Bank of Japan.
The dollar was helped after the Wall Street Journal reported that Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Narayana Kocherlakota signaled the Fed could raise interest rates by three quarters of a percentage point by the end of the year.
A recent series of hawkish comments by Fed officials have helped drive U.S. Treasury yields higher this week and caused the dollar's yield advantage over the yen to widen.
The BOJ will probably lag behind the Fed and the European Central Bank in raising interest rates, especially in the wake of the March 11 earthquake and tsunami that devastated Japan's northeast.
"A strong payrolls number would be reflected in the dollar/yen and it could rise to 84.50 in the short term," said Simon Derrick at Bank of New York Mellon. "We expect to see prolonged yen weakness due to loose monetary and fiscal policy in Japan."
The dollar rose above its 200-day moving average against the yen at 83.60 yen for the first time since June, a sign that the yen's uptrend may be coming to an end.
The dollar had tumbled to a post-World War Two record low of 76.25 yen in March, as the yen surged on the back of market speculation that Japanese investors may repatriate funds from abroad after the earthquake.
There has been little sign that such repatriation has taken place, and the yen later fell back after the Group of Seven intervened jointly to sell the yen on March 18. Japan conducted a total of 692.5 billion yen ($8.4 billion) in FX intervention in March, the Ministry of Finance said on Thursday.

10:28
FTSE +0.85% 5,959, CAC +0.55% 4,011, DAX +0.93% 7,107
10:01
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD  $1.4090, $1.4120, $1.4175, $1.4200 
USD/JPY Y83.50, Y83.00, Y82.50, Y82.00
EUR/JPY Y116.25
EUR/GBP stg0.8800
USD/CHF Chf0.9200
AUD/USD $1.0300, $1.0220
EUR/AUD A$1.3850



09:33
Asian stocks close:

Hang Seng +1.17% 23,801.90
Shanghai Composite +1.34% 2967.41
Nikkei -0.48% 9708.39

09:02
The jobless rate in the Eurozone fell for the first time in February to an expected 9.9%
08:32
UK: CIPS Mar mfg PMI 57.1
08:00
EUROZONE: Mar mfg PMI 57.5;
07:54
GERMANY:Mar mfg PMI 60.9
07:52
Asian session:

The yen weakened against all its major counterparts before reports that economists said will show U.S. employers added jobs last month.
The Dollar Index snapped a two-day decline on speculation Federal Reserve policy makers will signal today they may withdraw emergency monetary support for the economy. 
U.S. employment rose for a sixth month, increasing by 190,000 in March, according to a survey of economists before the Labor Department report today. 
The euro was set for a third weekly climb against the Japanese currency on speculation the European Central Bank will raise interest rates to contain inflation.

EUR/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1,4150-$ 1,4180.
GBP/USD: the pair become stronger in around $1,6070.
USD/JPY: the pair shown high in the field of Y83,75.

European data for Friday includes the run of manufacturing PMIs for March, including the final readings fro France (0648GMT) and Germany (0653GMT) as well as the main EMU release (0658GMT) all of which are expected to confirm their preliminary releases. Further EMU data at 0900GMT is expected to see EMU unemployment remain at 9.9% for February. 
The main release comes at 1230GMT, when non-farm payrolls are expected to rise 192,000 in March following the weather-related movements in the previous two months, as indicators such as weekly jobless claims point to continued improvement. Private payrolls are seen up 195,000. The unemployment rate is forecast to stay at 8.9% after three straight declines. Hourly earnings are expected to post a 0.2% rise following the flat February reading and the 0.4% January gain.
US data continues at 1400GMT with the ISM data and also Construction Spending. The ISM manufacturing index is expected to rise slightly to a reading of 61.5 in March from 61.4 in February. Regional data already released suggest that the pace of growth accelerated. Construction spending is forecast to fall 0.3% in February after declines in the previous two months on sharp non-residential construction contraction. Weather continued to be a factor in the data
in February. In addition, housing starts fell sharply in February, a negative for residential construction in this report. 

07:48
Forex: Thursday's review

The euro strengthened against the dollar and the yen after euro-region inflation unexpectedly accelerated in March, bolstering the case for the European Central Bank to raise interest rates next week.
Inflation in the 17-nation euro region quickened to 2.6% in March from 2.4% in February, European Union estimates showed today. That’s the fastest pace since October 2008, and exceeds the ECB’s 2% limit for a fourth month. Economists had forecast inflation to hold steady.
The 17-nation currency remained higher against most its major counterparts after Ireland announced that four of the country’s banks need to raise 24 billion euros ($34 billion) of additional capital. The dollar weakened as fewer Americans filed jobless benefits applications last week before the March employment report tomorrow.
The shared currency earlier pared gains against the greenback after Anglo Irish Bank Corp. Chief Executive Officer Mike Aynsley said he’s “not sure we’ll get details” of plans for a funding facility for Irish banks after results of the stress tests.

EUR/USD: the pair shown high in the field of $1,4230, however by the end of session returned back below a mark $1,4200.
GBP/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair decreased in around $1,6040.
USD/JPY: the pair bargained within the limits of Y82,50-Y83,20.


European data for Friday includes the run of manufacturing PMIs for March, including the final readings fro France (0648GMT) and Germany (0653GMT) as well as the main EMU release (0658GMT) all of which are expected to confirm their preliminary releases. Further EMU data at 0900GMT is expected to see EMU unemployment remain at 9.9% for February. 
The main release comes at 1230GMT, when non-farm payrolls are expected to rise 192,000 in March following the weather-related movements in the previous two months, as indicators such as weekly jobless claims point to continued improvement. Private payrolls are seen up 195,000. The unemployment rate is forecast to stay at 8.9% after three straight declines. Hourly earnings are expected to post a 0.2% rise following the flat February reading and the 0.4% January gain.

US data continues at 1400GMT with the ISM data and also Construction Spending. The ISM manufacturing index is expected to rise slightly to a reading of 61.5 in March from 61.4 in February. Regional data already released suggest that the pace of growth accelerated. Construction spending is forecast to fall 0.3% in February after declines in the previous two months on sharp non-residential construction contraction. Weather continued to be a factor in the data
in February. In addition, housing starts fell sharply in February, a negative for residential construction in this report. 

07:27
Stocks: Thursday's review

Japanese stocks rose for a second day as some companies reported improved earnings and on optimism signs of a strengthening recovery in the U.S. will boost exporters.
Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s No. 1 carmaker, gained 0.6 percent after a U.S. report showed companies added more workers this month. Advantest Corp., the world’s biggest maker of machines used to test memory chips, climbed 3.8 percent. Dainippon Sumitomo Pharma Co., a drugmaker, jumped 6.2 percent after boosting its profit outlook.

European stocks fell as inflation unexpectedly accelerated to the fastest pace in more than two years in March and investors speculated that the region will struggle to contain its sovereign-debt crisis.
Inflation in the 17-nation euro area quickened to 2.6 percent in March from 2.4 percent in February, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today in an initial estimate. That’s the fastest pace since October 2008 and exceeds the ECB’s 2 percent limit for a fourth month.
Banks extended losses in the final minutes of trading as Irish regulators instructed the country’s four largest lenders to raise 24 billion euros ($34 billion) in capital following a series of stress tests. Hennes & Mauritz AB (HMB) slumped 3.2 percent after saying first-quarter profit fell.
Moody’s Investors Service said it can’t rule out further credit downgrades for euro-area nations because the EU’s March 25 agreement on a permanent bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism, failed to go far enough. 

U.S. stocks swung between gains and losses at the end of the biggest first-quarter rally in 13 years as higher oil and metal prices drove commodity producers up, while consumer companies and banks slumped.
Rowan Cos. added 4.1 percent after Moody’s Investors Service upgraded the driller’s outlook. Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK/A) lost 2.1 percent as David Sokol, once a candidate to succeed Warren Buffett as the head of the investment firm, resigned after helping to negotiate the acquisition of a company whose shares he had purchased. Carmax Inc. (KMX) slumped 7.1 percent after the largest U.S. seller of used cars said gross margin dropped.

The S&P 500 advanced 5.6 percent in this quarter through yesterday and is poised for its biggest gain in the January- March period since 1998. An earthquake and tsunami in Japan and concern that revolts in the Middle East and northern Africa will curb global growth dragged the S&P 500 as much as 6.4 percent lower from its high for the year on Feb. 18 through March 16. The gauge has recovered most of that loss, trimming its drop from its 2011 high through yesterday to 1.1 percent.
The S&P 500 usually climbs further following first-quarter gains similar to this year’s, according to Birinyi Associates Inc. The index rises about 7.1 percent in the final three quarters of years following January-March gains of 5 percent to 7 percent, Birinyi data dating back to 1928 show.
The benchmark gauge of U.S. stocks is trading for about 13.7 times its companies’ estimated operating earnings, compared with an average multiple of 18.1 times reported profits over the last decade, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

07:17
Swiss Feb Retail Sales +1.5% y/y
07:15
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3:Y85.50            
Resistance 2:Y84.50              
Resistance 1:Y83.90
Current price: Y83.57
Support 1:Y82.70
Support 2:Y81.50                 
Support 3:Y80.70                 
Comments: the pair decreases. The nearest resistance - Y83.90/95 (channel line from Mar 25, Feb 16 high). Above growth is possible to Y84.50 (Dec 15 high). Key resistance - Y85.50 (trend line from Jun 17, 2007). The nearest support - on Y82.70 (channel line from Mar 25), below - on Y81.50 (Mar 29 low). Strong support - Y80.70 (Mar 23 low).  

07:11
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9360                 
Resistance 2: Chf0.9290
Resistance 1: Chf0.9250
Current price: Chf0.9205
Support 1: Chf0.9130                 
Support 2: Chf0.9060/65                 
Support 3: Chf0.8980                
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of Chf0,9200. The nearest resistance - Chf0.9250 (38.2 % Chf0.9775-Chf0.8920). Above - Chf0.9290 (resistance  line from Mar 16) and further - Chf0.9360 (around of Mar high). Support -  Chf0.9130 (Mar 31 low). Below loss may extend to Chf0.9060/65 (support line) and Chf0.8980 (Mar 23 low).

06:53
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6265          
Resistance 2: $ 1.6210 
Resistance 1: $ 1.6150/65        
Сurrent price: $1.6036
Support 1 : $1.5970
Support 2 : $1.5930           
Support 3 : $1.5820          
Comments: the pair become stronger. The nearest support - $1.5970 (channel line from Dec 28). Above growth is possible to $1.5930 (Mar 28-29 low), further - $1.5820 (Jan 31 low). The nearest resistance - $1.6150/65 (Mar 25 high, 50.0% FIBO $1.6400-$ 1.5935). Above growth is possible to $1.6220 (61.8%) and $1.6265 (Mar 24 high).

06:44
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.4320
Resistance 2: $ 1.4280
Resistance 1: $ 1.4230/50
The current price: $1.4165
Support 1 : $1.4150                  
Support 2 : $1.4070
Support 3: $ 1.4020                   
Comments: the pair is consolidated in a narrow range. The nearest support - $1.4150 (50,0 % $1.4050-$ 1.4230). Below losses are possible to $1.4070 (support line from Mar 25). The nearest resistance - $1.4230/50 (yesterday's high, Mar 22 high). 

06:21
Schedule for today, Friday, Apr 01 2011:

07:55 Germany  PMI (March) seasonally adjusted 60.9 62.7
08:00 EU(17) PMI (March) 57.7 59.0
08:30 UK CIPS manufacturing index (March) 60.8 61.5
09:00 EU(17) Unemployment (February) 9.9% 9.9%
12:30 USA Nonfarm payrolls (March) +180K +192K
12:30 USA Unemployment rate (March) 8.9% 8.9%
12:30 USA Average hourly earnings (March) 0.2% 0.0%
12:30 USA Average workweek (March) 34.3 34.2
14:00 USA ISM Mfg PMI (March) 61.0 61.4
14:00 USA Construction spending (February) -0.8% -0.7%

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