Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 15-04-2011.

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15.04.2011
17:38
USD/CAD under pressure

Eases to C$0.9600/05 area in recent dealings, still amid light flows and seeming intent on testing recent lows at C$0.9595 that have underpinned in recent days. Talk of stops below C$0.9590. Break lower will target C$0.9585/80.

16:26
Американский фокус:

The euro fell against the dollar and yen as concern the region’s debt crisis is getting worse pushed the extra yield investors demand to hold Greek 10-year bonds instead of German debt to a record 1,000 basis points.
“Increased worries about defaults in the periphery are weighing yet again on the euro and a reminder that we’re still not by any means at the end of this crisis,” said David Mann, New York-based head of research in the Americas at Standard Chartered. “It’s also been very tough to stay above the $1.45 level, which is a major psychological level for the market. There are suspected options barriers around that level.”
The yen rallied versus all of its major counterparts on demand for a refuge as China said inflation reached the fastest pace in more than two years, reviving concern the world’s second-largest economy will cool growth. The dollar dropped against the yen as a measure of inflation was lower than economists forecast.
U.S. consumer prices excluding volatile food and fuel costs rose 0.1 percent in March after an increase of 0.2 percent in the previous month, the Labor Department reported. That core figure increased 1.2 percent from a year earlier.
“Consumer prices don’t do much to change the steady outlook for Fed policy,” said Joe Manimbo, a market analyst in Washington at Travelex Global Business Payments, a currency-exchange network.
The euro has gained 8 percent versus the dollar this year on bets accelerating inflation will prompt European policy makers to raise interest rates further even as nations such as Greece and Ireland try to reduce their debt burdens.

15:19
Techs on USD/JPY
Resistance 3:Y84.80           
Resistance 2:Y84.30            
Resistance 1:Y83.50            
Current price: Y83.10
Support 1:Y82.90        
Support 2:Y82.50           
Support 3:Y81.50   

Comments: Rate tested Apr 14 lows at Y83.90 (minor support), but failed to break under. Break under tarfets Y82.50 (Mar 31 lows). Resistance is around Y83.50 (channel line from Apr 08). Above there is a chance to go up to Y84.30 (Apr 13 high).

 

15:11
Techs on USD/CHF
Resistance 3: Chf0.9200                
Resistance 2: Chf0.9100                
Resistance 1: Chf0.8990                    

Current price: Chf0.8949

Support 1: Chf0.8900    
Support 2: Chf0.8800           

Support 3: Chf0.8700        


Comments: rate slowly recovered with a techs hasn't changed. Support comes at Chf0.8890/00 (Apr 14 lows). Below losses may widen to Chf0.8800. Minor resistance comes at Chf0.8990 (Apr 13 highs). Above the rate may rise up to Chf0.9100 (Apr 11 high).
14:56
Techs on GBP/USD
Resistance 3:$1.6460         
Resistance 2:$1.6430         
Resistance 1:$1.6380              

Current price: $1.6325

Support 1: $1.6300
Support 2: $1.6250    

Support 3: $1.6180     


Comments: Rate continues to probe lows with a break lower drags the rate down to $1.6300. Stronger level is around $1.6250 (38.2% Fibo of $1.5960 - $1.6420 move). Break under widens losses to $1.6180. Resistance comes at $1.6380 (Apr 14 high). Above there is a room for a rise to $1.6430 (Apr 08-11 highs). Key resistance is near 2011 highs on $1.6460.
14:47
Techs on EUR/USD
Resistance 3:$1.4770             
Resistance 2:$1.4580             
Resistance 1:$1.4520             
Current price: $1.4412

Support 1: $1.4400                         
Support 2: $1.4350/60             

Support 3: $1.4240                       


Comments: Rate remains under pressure. Minor support comes at session lows on $1.4390/00 with a break below widens losses to $1.4350/60 (Apr 06 high and Apr 14 lows). Below rate may dip to $1.4240 (Apr 07 lows, support line from Jan 10).  Initial resistance is around $1.4520 (Apr 12-13 highs). Above rate may recover to $1.4580 (2010 highs).
14:42
Germany finmin: dollar to keep key role for foreseeable future
14:33
Germany finmin:euro will remain a stable currency
13:55
US: Apr prelim Rtrs-U/Mich consumer sentiment 69.6
13:47
FX: Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:
EUR/USD $1.4500, $1.4530
USD/JPY  Y82.40, Y82.75, Y83.00, Y83.25, Y84.30-35, Y84.75, Y85.00
EUR/JPY  Y115.50, Y124.00
GBP/USD $1.6410, $1.6325, $1.6200
EUR/GBP stg0.8700
USD/CHF Chf0.9030, Chf0.9100
AUD/USD $1.0450, $1.0515, $1.0600, $1.0650
USD/CAD C$0.9675
13:34
ECB WEBER: Germany Q1 GDP 0.8% to 1.0%, ensures 2.5% fy growth
  • Germany full year inflation 2.5%, could hit 3.0% in some mths
  • recovery self-sustaining
13:16
US: Mar Cap-U 77.4
13:15
US: Mar Industrial Production +0.8%
13:01
US: February TICS net foreign purchases of US long-term securities $26.9b
13:00
US: February TICS Total foreign purchases of US securities of $97.7b
12:43
Reaction on news:

Empire State index topped expectations, but dollar holds tight. EUR/USD trades at $1.4413, GBP/USD - at $1.6340, USD/JPY - at Y83.17.

12:32
US: NY Fed Empire State Mfg Index rose to 21.70 in Apr
12:31
US: core March CPI +0.1% m/m and +1.2% y/y
12:30
US: March CPI +0.5% m/m and +2.7% y/y
12:02
EU session review: Euro falls on Ireland downgrade

Data released
04:30     Japan     Industrial output (February) final    1.8%    0.4%    0.4%
04:30     Japan     Industrial output (February) final Y/Y    2.9%    2.8%    2.8%
09:00     EU(17)     Harmonized CPI (March) final    1.4%    1.2%    0.4%
09:00     EU(17)     Harmonized CPI (March) final Y/Y    2.7%    2.6%    2.4%
09:00     EU(17)     Harmonized CPI ex EFAT (March) Y/Y    1.3%    1.1%    1.0%
09:00     EU(17)     Trade balance (February) unadjusted, bln     -1.5    -4.2    -14.8
09:00     EU(17)     Trade balance (February) adjusted, bln     -2.4    -    -3.1 (-3.3)

The euro fell against the dollar, yen and pound after Moody’s Investors Service lowered Ireland’s credit rating, stoking concern that Europe’s debt crisis may worsen as Greece battles to avoid a bond restructuring.
The Moody’s cut Ireland to the lowest investment grade and indicated more downgrades may follow.
Europe’s currency fell to an almost one-week low against the dollar yesterday after Germany’s finance minister and Standard & Poor’s said Greece may need to restructure debt to avoid defaulting. Greece will announce more than 22 billion euros of deficit-reduction measures through 2014 today, according to Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou.
The euro has still gained 8% versus the dollar this year on bets accelerating inflation will prompt euro-area policy makers to raise interest rates, even as the so-called peripheral nations struggle to reduce their debt burdens.
The euro stayed lower even as a report showed inflation in the 17-nation euro-region accelerated more than forecast to 2.7% in March, the fastest pace in more than two years.
The European Central Bank raised its key rate last week to 1.25% from a record low 1% and indicated further increases may follow. The Fed has kept its target rate for overnight lending between banks at zero to 0.25% since December 2008.
The yen rallied after China said inflation reached the fastest pace in more than two years, spurring demand for a refuge.
China’s economy grew 9.7% in the first quarter, while consumer prices increased 5.4% in March from a year earlier. The median forecasts were for economic growth of 9.4% and inflation of 5.2%.

EUR/USD fell from $1.4500 to $1.4440. Rate remains under pressure.

GBP/USD holds within the $1.6310/70 range.

USD/JPY printed lows at Y82.90 before recovered to Y83.50. Currently rate holds around Y84.25.

The U.S. consumer-price index climbed 0.5% in March, matching the previous month’s reading, which was the biggest gain since June 2009, a survey showed before the Labor Department data today. Excluding volatile food and fuel costs, so-called core prices may have advanced 0.2% in March for a third month.
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke last week said an acceleration in inflation is likely to be transitory. Fed Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker said yesterday the central bank should end its stimulus programs before inflation picks up.



11:47
Pierpont Securities ahead of CPI report

Pierpont Securities says core infl has started rising, a reason to move up Fed's tightening timetable. Pierpont est Mar core CPI +0.2%.

11:25
EUR/USD holds tight

EUR/USD holds around $1.4461 as it fails to hold onto the react gains seen after release of stronger than forecast EMU CPI. Earlier rate printed highs of $1.4475. Support seen back in place at the earlier low of $1.4441, with further interest seen at $1.4435/30.

11:10
ECB: KRANJEC Says "very clear" that monetary policy still accommodative
  • ECB concerned about inflation;
  • interest rates rather low;
  • to do whatever needed to keep infl near but under 2%;
  • always a risk commodities could trigger 2d-rd effects;
  • sooner or later we will take decision on addicted banks;
  • national authorities must act first on addicted banks.
11:07
ECB: KRANJEC Says "very clear" that monetary policy still accommodative
  • ECB concerned about inflation;
  • interest rates rather low;
  • to do whatever needed to keep infl near but under 2%;
  • always a risk commodities could trigger 2d-rd effects;
  • sooner or later we will take decision on addicted banks;
  • national authorities must act first on addicted banks.
10:42
EUR/GBP weakens

EUR/GBP extends its corrective pullback to challenge reported support/demand around stg0.8830. The cross posted fresh intraday lows at stg0.8828. If rate can clear below this area seen allowing for a retest on Thursday's low at stg0.8808. Currently cross holds around stg0.8836.

10:29
European focus: Europe’s currency fell

Europe’s currency fell to an almost one-week low against the dollar yesterday after Germany’s finance minister and Standard & Poor’s said Greece may need to restructure debt to avoid defaulting. The euro has still gained 8 percent versus the dollar this year on bets accelerating inflation will prompt euro-area policy makers to raise interest rates, even as peripheral nations struggle to reduce their debt burdens.
The European Central Bank raised its benchmark refinancing rate last week to 1.25 percent from a record low 1 percent and indicated further increases may follow. The Fed has kept its target rate for overnight lending between banks at zero to 0.25 percent since December 2008.
The euro briefly pared its decline today after a report showed inflation in the 17-nation euro-region accelerated more than forecast to 2.7 percent in March, the fastest in more than two years.
The U.S. consumer-price index climbed 0.5 percent in March, matching the previous month’s reading, which was the biggest gain since June 2009, a survey showed before the Labor Department data today. Excluding volatile food and fuel costs, so-called core prices may have advanced 0.2 percent in March for a third month, another survey showed.
Britain’s pound rose for a third day against the euro, adding 0.3 percent to 88.38 pence to the shared currency while it gained less-than 0.1 percent to $1.6342. Bank of England policy maker Andrew Sentance said in an interview with Bloomberg yesterday that an interest rate increase to boost the currency wouldn’t be “unwelcome” as a slowdown in inflation may prove short-lived.

10:04
FTSE +0.12% 5,971, CAC -0.26% 3,960, DAX +0.28% 7,167
09:42
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.4500, $1.4530
USD/JPY  Y82.40, Y82.75, Y83.00, Y83.25, Y84.30-35, Y84.75, Y85.00
EUR/JPY  Y115.50, Y124.00
GBP/USD $1.6410, $1.6325, $1.6200
EUR/GBP stg0.8700
USD/CHF Chf0.9030, Chf0.9100
AUD/USD $1.0450, $1.0515, $1.0600, $1.0650
USD/CAD C$0.9675

09:22
Asian stocks close

Hang Seng  -0.02% 24,008.07

Shanghai Composite +0.26% 3,050.53
Nikkei -0.65% 9591.52

09:03
EMU: Consumer Price Index, Mar +1/4% m/m, +2.7% y/y
08:38
BOE SENTANCE: Employment data shows recovery on track

  • One month's inflation numbers not significant.
  • Sees 'some upward pressure' on inflation
  • Doesn't see case for keeping rates low
  • Delaying rate rise now means bigger move later.
  • Surveys show people less convinced CPI to ease
  • Inflation may exceed 5% on weaker sterling
  • Sterling boost from higher rates not unwelcome

08:21
Asian sessio: The yen rose

 

Data:
02:00 China Producer Price Index (YoY) (Mar) 7.3%
02:00 China Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar) 17.4%  
02:00 China Urban investment (YTD) (YoY) (Mar) 25.0%
02:00 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Mar) 14.8% 2
02:00 China Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Mar) 5.4%
02:00 China Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q1) 9.7%
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (Feb) 2.9%
04:30 Japan Capacity Utilization (Feb) 2.9% 1
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb) 1.8%

 

The yen rose, reversing earlier losses, as Chinese data on consumer prices stoked concern Asia’s biggest economy will take more steps to cool growth, spurring demand for Japan’s currency as a refuge.
The yen gained versus all of its 16 major counterparts as stocks declined after China’s statistics bureau said inflation quickened to the fastest pace in more than two years. 
The euro weakened after Moody’s Investors Service cut its credit rating on Ireland.
China’s economy grew 9.7 percent in the first quarter while consumer prices increased 5.4 percent in March from a year earlier, the statistics bureau in Beijing said today. The median forecasts in surveys of economists were for economic growth of 9.4 percent and inflation of 5.2 percent.

 

EUR/USD: the pair shown low in the field of $1.4460 then  grown.
GBP/USD: the pair   shown low in the field of $1.6310 then  grown.
USD/JPY: the pair  decreased in around Y83.20.

The G20 finance ministers and central bankers meeting takes place in Washington from 1430GMT today. Main European data is sparse, with just the 0900GMT release of the February EMU trade balance and also 
March final HICP. 
US data start at 1230GMT with the Consumer Price Index and also the NY Fed Empire State Survey. Consumer prices are expected to reflect the continued price pressures from food and energy, though to a lesser extent than in at the wholesale level. Overall CPI is forecast to rise 0.5%, while core CPI is expected to rise 0.2%. The NY Fed Empire State Index is forecast to hold steady at a reading of 17.5 in April after rising in each of the last four months. 
The Treasury International Capital System (TICS) data follows at 1300GMT. US data continues at 1315GMT, when industrial production is  expected to rise 0.6% in March. Factory payrolls rose 17,000 in the 
month, while auto production jobs rose 3,000. The factory workweek fell 0.1 to 40.5 hours. The ISM production index rose to 69.0 in March. Capacity utilization is forecast to rise to 77.4%.
 1355GMT, The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to rise to a reading of 69.0 in early-April. 

 

 

08:14
Forex: Thursday's review

The euro erased its decline against the dollar on speculation the sovereign-debt crisis in nations including Portugal and Greece will be contained.
The euro erased its drop as European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said he’s “quite confident” the financial-aid package being negotiated for Portugal will result in the debt crisis being contained. 
The dollar fell to its lowest level this month against the yen as U.S. initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose and producer prices advanced at a slower pace, encouraging the Federal Reserve to keep borrowing costs low. The euro slid earlier as concern Greece will have to restructure its debt pushed its bond yields to record highs.

EUR/USD: the pair become stronger in around $1.4480.
GBP/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair become stronger in around $1.6350. 
USD/JPY: the pair shown low in the field of Y82.90, later become stronger in around Y83.50.

The G20 finance ministers and central bankers meeting takes place in Washington from 1430GMT today. Main European data is sparse, with just the 0900GMT release of the February EMU trade balance and also 
March final HICP. 
US data start at 1230GMT with the Consumer Price Index and also the NY Fed Empire State Survey. Consumer prices are expected to reflect the continued price pressures from food and energy, though to a lesser extent than in at the wholesale level. Overall CPI is forecast to rise 0.5%, while core CPI is expected to rise 0.2%. The NY Fed Empire State Index is forecast to hold steady at a reading of 17.5 in April after rising in each of the last four months. 
The Treasury International Capital System (TICS) data follows at 1300GMT. US data continues at 1315GMT, when industrial production is  expected to rise 0.6% in March. Factory payrolls rose 17,000 in the 
month, while auto production jobs rose 3,000. The factory workweek fell 0.1 to 40.5 hours. The ISM production index rose to 69.0 in March. Capacity utilization is forecast to rise to 77.4%.
 1355GMT, The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to rise to a reading of 69.0 in early-April. 

07:45
Stocks: Thursday's review

Japanese stocks rose, erasing earlier declines, as Isuzu Motors Ltd. led gains by exporters and Toshiba Corp. climbed after saying profit may beat its earlier forecast.
Isuzu Motors jumped 6.2 percent in Tokyo, even after it denied a report Volkswagen AG is considering taking a stake or purchasing the Japanese truckmaker outright. Toshiba, a nuclear reactor supplier, advanced 2 percent. Toshiba advanced 2 percent to 404 yen after its president said net income may beat forecasts. Net income for the year ended March 31 may exceed Toshiba’s January estimate, President Norio Sasaki told reporters today in Tokyo.  Sanrio Co., the maker of Hello Kitty character goods, surged 11 percent after saying full-year net income beat its forecast.
Japanese companies resumed production after last month’s earthquake, and as an improving U.S. economy bolstered optimism the global recovery can be sustained.

European stocks declined for the third time in four days as yields on Portuguese and Greek government bonds surged to records amid concern the countries may have to reschedule debt payments.
Banca Popolare di Milano Scrl dropped 2.7 percent as people familiar with the situation said the lender is considering a share sale to boost capital. Reckitt Benckiser Group Plc, the maker of Nurofen painkillers, tumbled the most since 2003 after Chief Executive Officer Bart Becht announced his retirement. Danone rose 2 percent as sales beat analysts’ estimates.
The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index retreated 0.5 percent to 277.01 at the 4:30 p.m. close in London. The gauge has declined 1.7 percent so far this week as Japan raised its alert level on the stricken Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear power plant and Alcoa Inc. began the U.S. earnings season with sales that missed analysts’ estimates. Google Inc. is scheduled to report first- quarter results after the close of New York markets today.

For the second straight session the stock market overcame selling pressure to finish flat. In both sessions stocks were able to do it without help from the financial sector.
Stocks dropped markedly in the first few minutes. Sellers were motivated by renewed weakness among several major foreign equity averages and a disappointing initial jobless claims count for the week ended April 9. Initial claims climbed 27,000 week-over-week to 412,000, which is greater than the 385,000 initial claims that had been widely expected. The surprisingly high tally marked the first time in more than a month that initial claims exceeded 400,000.
Separately, the Producer Price Index for March increased by 0.7%, which is less than the 1.1% increase that had been broadly expected. Excluding food and energy, producer prices for March increased by a much more tepid 0.3%, which is slightly greater than the 0.2% increase that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com.
Early pressure was primarily focused on tech stocks and financials. Although buying interest gradually emerged to help tech stocks pare losses, financials remained hampered by weakness among diversified bank stocks ahead of the latest report from Bank of America (BAC 13.13, -0.14) tomorrow morning. Investment bank stocks were also weak amid news that Goldman Sachs (GS 155.79, -4.38) has been accused by a Senate subcommittee for lying in a testimony during 2010. Additionally, Deutsche Bank (DB 60.57, -0.81) and Credit Suisse (CS 44.24, -0.42) were both downgraded by analysts at Societe Generale. Overall, the financial sector fell 0.9%, which comes on top of its 0.8% decline in the prior session.
Strong buying interest in consumer staples stocks and energy stocks helped lift the two sectors to gains of 0.6% gain, but the pair failed to provide much broad market leadership. Although their inability to provide a lift to the broader market left the major averages to settle near the neutral line, the flat finish actually represented considerable improvement over the tone of trade seen in the early going.
Waning negativity caused Treasuries to slip a bit. Results from the auction of 30-year Bonds didn't exactly bolster buying interest in the space. The auction drew a bid-to-cover of 2.83, dollar demand of $36.8 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 47.2%.

07:27
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3:Y84.80 (Apr 12 high) 
Resistance 2:Y84.30 (Apr 13 high) 
Resistance 1:Y83.60 (resistance line from Apr 8) 
Current price: Y83.42
Support 1:Y82.90 (Apr 14 low)    
Support 2:Y82.50 (Mar 31 low)    
Support 3:Y81.50 (Mar 29 low)    
Comments: the pair  decreased. The nearest resistance - Y83.60. Above growth is possible to Y84.30. The nearest support - Y82,90. Below losses are possible to Y82.50. 

07:23
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9200 (Apr 7 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9100 (Apr 11 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.8990 (Apr 13 high)
Current price: Chf0.8934
Support 1: Chf0.8900 (Mar 14 low)
Support 2: Chf0.8800 (psychological mark)
Support 3: Chf0.8700 (psychological mark)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of the low reached yesterday. The nearest support - Chf0,8900. Below loss may extend to Chf0.8800. The nearest resistance - Chf0.8990.  Above is located Chf0.9100. 

06:52
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6460 (Jan'2010 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.6430 (Apr 8-11 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6380 (Apr 14 high)
Current price: $1.6338
Support 1 : $1.6330 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.6230 (Apr 12 low)
Support 3 : $1.6180 (Apr 4 high)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of $1.6330. The nearest support $1.6330. Below is possible testings of around $1.6230. The nearest resistance - around $1.6380. Above growth is possible to $1.6430. 

06:15
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.4770 (Dec 12'2009)
Resistance 2: $ 1.4580 (high of 2010)
Resistance 1: $ 1.4520 (Apr 12-13 high)
Current price: $1.4468
Support 1 : $1.4460 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.4350/60 (Apr 6 high, Apr 14 )
Support 3 : $1.4240 (Apr 7 low, support line from Jan 10)
Comments: the pair decreased. The nearest support $1,4460. Below losses are poissble to $1.4350/60. The nearest resistance - $1.4520. Above growth is possible to $1,4580 is Above possible.

05:50
Schedule for today, Friday, Apr 15 2011:

02:00 China Producer Price Index (YoY) (Mar) 7.3% 7.2% 7.2% 
02:00 China Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar) 17.4% 16.3% 15.8%
02:00 China Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Mar) 5.4% 5.2% 4.9%
02:00 China Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q1) 9.7% 9.3% 9.8%
02:00 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Mar) 14.8% 14.0% 14.1%
04:30 Japan Industrial output (February) final 0.4% 0.4%
04:30 Japan Industrial output (February) final Y/Y 2.8% 2.8%
09:00 EU(17) Harmonized CPI (March) final 0.4% 0.4%
09:00 EU(17) Harmonized CPI (March) final Y/Y 2.6% 2.4%
09:00 EU(17) Harmonized CPI ex EFAT (March) Y/Y 1.1% 1.0%
09:00 EU(17) Trade balance (February) unadjusted, bln -4.2 -14.8
09:00 EU(17) Trade balance (February) adjusted, bln - -3.3
12:30 USA NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index (April) 15.1 17.5
12:30 USA CPI (March) 0.5% 0.5%
12:30 USA CPI (March) Y/Y - 2.1%
12:30 USA CPI excluding food and energy (March) 0.2% 0.2%
12:30 USA CPI excluding food and energy (March) Y/Y - 1.1%
13:00 USA TICS net flows (February), bln - 32.5
13:00 USA TICS net long-term flows (February), bln - 51.5
13:15 USA Industrial production (March) 0.5% -0.1%
13:15 USA Capacity utilisation (March) 77.4 76.3
13:55 USA Michigan sentiment index (April) preliminary 66.2 67.5

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