Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
00:00 | Australia | Consumer Inflation Expectation | October | 3.1% | 3.2% |
00:30 | Australia | Home Loans | August | 5.0% | 0.2% |
06:00 | Germany | Current Account | August | 22.1 | 18.1 |
06:00 | Germany | Trade Balance (non s.a.), bln | August | 21.4 | |
06:45 | France | Industrial Production, m/m | August | 0.3% | 0.3% |
08:30 | United Kingdom | Industrial Production (YoY) | August | -0.9% | -0.9% |
08:30 | United Kingdom | Manufacturing Production (YoY) | August | -0.6% | -0.7% |
08:30 | United Kingdom | Industrial Production (MoM) | August | 0.1% | -0.1% |
08:30 | United Kingdom | Manufacturing Production (MoM) | August | 0.3% | 0% |
08:30 | United Kingdom | GDP m/m | August | 0.3% | 0% |
08:30 | United Kingdom | Total Trade Balance | August | -0.219 | |
09:20 | United Kingdom | BOE Gov Mark Carney Speaks | |||
11:30 | Eurozone | ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts | |||
12:30 | U.S. | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1651 | 1653 | |
12:30 | Canada | New Housing Price Index, YoY | August | -0.4% | |
12:30 | Canada | New Housing Price Index, MoM | August | -0.1% | 0% |
12:30 | U.S. | Initial Jobless Claims | 219 | 219 | |
12:30 | U.S. | CPI excluding food and energy, m/m | September | 0.3% | 0.2% |
12:30 | U.S. | CPI, m/m | September | 0.1% | 0.1% |
12:30 | U.S. | CPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y | September | 2.4% | 2.4% |
12:30 | U.S. | CPI, Y/Y | September | 1.7% | 1.8% |
13:00 | United Kingdom | NIESR GDP Estimate | Quarter III | 0.1% | |
16:15 | U.S. | FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks | |||
21:30 | New Zealand | Business NZ PMI | September | 48.4 | 49.0 |
21:30 | U.S. | FOMC Member Mester Speaks |
Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
00:00 | Australia | Consumer Inflation Expectation | October | 3.1% | 3.2% |
00:30 | Australia | Home Loans | August | 5.0% | 0.2% |
06:00 | Germany | Current Account | August | 22.1 | 18.1 |
06:00 | Germany | Trade Balance (non s.a.), bln | August | 21.4 | |
06:45 | France | Industrial Production, m/m | August | 0.3% | 0.3% |
08:30 | United Kingdom | Industrial Production (YoY) | August | -0.9% | -0.9% |
08:30 | United Kingdom | Manufacturing Production (YoY) | August | -0.6% | -0.7% |
08:30 | United Kingdom | Industrial Production (MoM) | August | 0.1% | -0.1% |
08:30 | United Kingdom | Manufacturing Production (MoM) | August | 0.3% | 0% |
08:30 | United Kingdom | GDP m/m | August | 0.3% | 0% |
08:30 | United Kingdom | Total Trade Balance | August | -0.219 | |
09:20 | United Kingdom | BOE Gov Mark Carney Speaks | |||
11:30 | Eurozone | ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts | |||
12:30 | U.S. | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1651 | 1653 | |
12:30 | Canada | New Housing Price Index, YoY | August | -0.4% | |
12:30 | Canada | New Housing Price Index, MoM | August | -0.1% | 0% |
12:30 | U.S. | Initial Jobless Claims | 219 | 219 | |
12:30 | U.S. | CPI excluding food and energy, m/m | September | 0.3% | 0.2% |
12:30 | U.S. | CPI, m/m | September | 0.1% | 0.1% |
12:30 | U.S. | CPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y | September | 2.4% | 2.4% |
12:30 | U.S. | CPI, Y/Y | September | 1.7% | 1.8% |
13:00 | United Kingdom | NIESR GDP Estimate | Quarter III | 0.1% | |
16:15 | U.S. | FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks | |||
21:30 | New Zealand | Business NZ PMI | September | 48.4 | 49.0 |
21:30 | U.S. | FOMC Member Mester Speaks |
The U.S. Energy
Information Administration (EIA) revealed on Wednesday that crude inventories jumped
by 2.927 million barrels in the week ended October 4. Economists had forecast a
gain of 1.900 million barrels.
At the same
time, gasoline stocks declined by 1.213 million barrels, while analysts had
expected a drop of 0.900 million barrels. Distillate stocks reduced by 3.943
million barrels, while analysts had forecast a decrease of 2.000 million
barrels.
Meanwhile, oil
production in the U.S. climbed by 200,000 barrels a day to 12.600 million
barrels a day.
U.S. crude oil
imports averaged 6.2 million barrels per day last week, down by 67,000 barrels
per day from the previous week.
The Job
Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) published by the Labor Department on
Wednesday showed 1.7 percent m-o-m drop in the U.S. job openings in
August.
According to the
report, employers posted 7.051 million job openings in August, compared to the
July figure of 7.174 million (revised from 7.217 million in original estimate)
and economists’ expectations of 7.051 million. The job openings rate was 4.4
percent in August, down from an unrevised 4.5 percent in the prior month. The
report showed that the number of job openings was little changed for total
private and for government. The job openings level declined in nondurable goods
manufacturing (-49,000 jobs) and in information (-47,000).
Meanwhile, the
number of hires fell by 3.3 percent m-o-m to 5.779 million in August from 5.978 in July. The hiring
rate was 3.8 percent, down from 3.9 in July. The number of hires edged up for total
private (-219,000) and was little changed for government. The hires level
increased in federal government (+35,000).
The separation
rate in August was at 5.638 million or 3.7 percent, compared to 5.810 million
or 3.8 percent in July. Within separations, the quits rate was 2.3 percent (-0.1
pp m-o-m), and the layoffs rate was 1.2 percent (flat m-o-m).
The Commerce
Department announced on Wednesday the U.S. wholesale inventories rose 0.2 percent
m-o-m in August, the same pace as in July
Economists had
forecast wholesale inventories growing 0.4 percent m-o-m in August.
According to the report, stocks of durable goods increased 0.3 percent m-o-m after being flat m-o-m in July, while inventories of non-durable goods edged up 0.1 percent m-o-m, following a 0.4 percent m-o-m gain in the previous month.
On a y-o-y basis, wholesale inventories surged 6.2 percent.
Jane Foley, the senior FX strategist at Rabobank, points out that it is their central view that Brexit will be delayed beyond October 31, but since a delay is not a solution, they see risk that EUR/GBP will be trading close to current levels on a 3-month view.
Analysts at Deutsche Bank suggest that the Fed Chair Powell yesterday signaled very strongly that the Fed will announce new plans to grow its balance sheet by purchasing treasury bills.
Analysts at TD Securities suggest that, while energy markets may have been tightening, it is increasingly likely that deeper and longer cuts will be required to reach a balanced market.
Raoul Leering, the Head of International Trade Analysis at ING, notes that among all the negative reports about the forthcoming U.S.-China trade talks, some positive signs have emerged as well.
Nick Kounis, the head of financial markets research at ABN AMRO, suggests that recent economic data confirm that the slowdown in the global economy will be more protracted with global trade and industry likely to remain weak over the next few months.
The Mortgage
Bankers Association (MBA) reported on Wednesday the mortgage application volume
in the U.S. rose 5.4 percent in the week ended October 4, following an 8.1
percent climb in the previous week.
According to
the report, refinance applications surged 10 percent, while applications to
purchase a home fell 1.0 percent.
Meanwhile, the
average fixed 30-year mortgage rate decreased to 3.90 percent from 3.99
percent.
“U.S. Treasury
rates moved sharply lower last week, as data showing weakness in the services
sector was a sign that slowing economic growth is not confined to the
manufacturing sector,” said MBA’s Joel Kan, Associate Vice President of
Economic and Industry Forecasting. “This in turn caused a flight to safety by
investors, resulting in mortgage rates dropping across the board.”
Chris Turner, the head of FX strategy at ING, notes that Fed Chair Jerome Powell said yesterday the Fed would be addressing last month’s tightness in U.S. money markets with a permanent addition of dollar liquidity – replacing several temporary open market operations currently underway.
The European Central Bank’s vice-president raised the bar on further interest rate cuts, saying the side effects of the ECB’s easy money policy were becoming more tangible.
In an interview with Market News, Luis de Guindos also ruled out a “policy U-turn” under the ECB’s incoming president Christine Lagarde and weighed in on a public spat among policymakers on last month’s decision to resume a 2.6 trillion euro bond-buying program.
The ECB pushed its deposit rate further into negative territory on Sept. 12 - effectively increasing a charge on banks’ idle cash - and investors have priced in a further rate cut by March next year.
But de Guindos poured cold water on such expectations.
“My impression is that -0.50% is the correct level at present, and as to any further cut, we will have a good, in-depth discussion in the Governing Council,” de Guindos said.
“Although we can reduce interest rates further, the side effects of monetary policy are becoming more and more evident and more and more tangible,” he added.
According to analysts at TD Securities, the minutes from the September FOMC will be scrutinized by the market in search for clues regarding the path forward for rates, following the Fed's decision to ease rates again at that meeting.
“More importantly, the minutes are also likely to shed light on the Fed's thinking about the recent surges in repo market rates. However, this has been partly addressed by Chair Powell, who stated on Tuesday that the Fed "will soon announce measures to add to the supply of reserves over time."
Moody’s Investors Service, released its latest review report on the Chinese banking system, maintaining a stable outlook.
"The operating environment for Chinese banks is deteriorating as the escalating trade tensions with the United States will add further pressure to the country's economic growth", Moody's said.
Nevertheless, Moody's maintained its stable outlook for the Chinese banking system on stable liquidity and adequate capitalization.
"Despite the ongoing trade tensions and slowing economic growth, accommodative government policies will support the asset quality of Chinese banks over the next 12 to 18 months while capital and liquidity also remain adequate. However, profitability will weaken on declining asset yields due to looser monetary policy and interest rate reform and continued high credit costs to reflect high corporate leverage and a slowing economy", Moody's said.
The Bank of England warned of significant market volatility and “material risks” of economic disruption in the event of a no-deal Brexit at the end of this month.
The BOE’s Financial Policy Committee, in its last scheduled meeting before the current deadline of Oct. 31, said the financial system is prepared for the fallout of Britain abruptly leaving the European Union. Still, asset prices could fall sharply and financial conditions could deteriorate.
“Financial stability is not the same as market stability,” the committee said. “Significant further asset price volatility is to be expected in a disorderly Brexit.”
The BOE said the EU should do more to contain remaining risks to financial markets, including to 17 trillion pounds of non-cleared swaps maturing after October, and that these risks could “amplify volatility or spill back to the U.K.”
While the BOE has said planning for a no-deal scenario has helped to limit the potential damage to the economy, the central bank’s worst-case scenario still sees a dramatic 5.5% drop in GDP.
BOE Governor Mark Carney says the goal is to prevent problems in the financial plumbing so that the sector doesn’t make things worse for the broader economy.
Global trade tensions and their potential impact on crude demand are more significant for oil markets than recent attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East, according to Helima Croft, the managing director and global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets.
“We still have huge fears about demand. That is what’s weighing on this market,” Croft told.
“The big turn in this market this year was the resumption of the trade war (between the U.S. and China) and as long as we have these trade war fears hanging over this market, OPEC can do what they can in terms of production cuts but the question is: Can you move this market higher?”
The next significant meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC producers will take place in December. Croft noted that current oil prices are not where most members of the oil-producing group would like them to be. “Prices are nowhere where the producers want at this point. Many producers have break-even prices for their fiscal budgets (that are) in the $80s. So the current price environment is not good for most of the OPEC countries,” she said.
“The question is does OPEC do a bigger collective cut and does Saudi Arabia, the driver of OPEC policy, take more on their back or are they able to get better compliance (from other producers to cut output)?”
According to the monthly survey from Bank of France, the economy is set to expand 0.3% in the third quarter, unchanged from the previous estimate.
Further, data showed that the manufacturing sentiment index dropped to 96 in September from 99 in August.
Industrial production contracted largely reflecting the weakness in machinery and electronic equipment. However, business leaders expect industrial output to grow again in October.
In the service sector, the business confidence index came in at 99 in September versus 100 in August.
Service sector activity slowed in September. Leaders project activity to accelerate in October.
In construction, the business confidence index rose slightly to 105 from 104 in August. Construction sector activity was up sharply in September.
Business leaders forecast construction sector activity to continue to grow at a sustained pace in October.
Analysts at TD Securities point out that following China's increased purchases of US agricultural goods, US tariff delays and President Trump noting that a deal "could happen sooner than you think", hopes of progress during a fresh round of trade talks between senior US and Chinese officials in Washington have grown.
“The incentive for both sides to get a deal done is intensifying given rising economic pressures on both countries. However, the two sides remain far apart on various structural issues (technology transfers, state subsidies, IP theft etc), which will likely not be resolved quickly. While a complete deal may not happen quickly there is potential for agreement on less contentious issues such as Chinese purchases of US goods in exchange for a rolling back of some US tariffs. Also watch out for any discussion on the CNY in any interim deal as well as whether the next phase of tariffs implementation on October 15 will go ahead.”
It will be very difficult to secure a Brexit agreement by next week with big gaps remaining in the British position, Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said following a phone call with his British counterpart, Boris Johnson.
“I’ll certainly work until the very last moment to secure that (a deal) but not at any cost... I think it will be very difficult to secure an agreement by next week, quite frankly,” Varadkar told Irish national broadcaster RTE.
“Essentially what the United Kingdom has done is repudiated the deal that we negotiated in good faith with Prime Minister May’s government over two years and has sort of put half of that now back on the table and are saying that’s a concession and of course it isn’t really. There are two big gaps.”
Johnson has consistently said the United Kingdom will leave the EU on Oct. 31 with or without a deal, though a law passed by parliament demands he write a letter to the EU asking for a delay if he cannot strike an exit deal by Oct. 19.
In opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, Cable risks a potential move to the 1.2140 region in the next weeks.
24-hour view: “Instead of “continue to edge lower to 1.2260”, the decline in GBP yesterday exceeded our expectation as it not only cracked 1.2260 but the next support at 1.2235 as well (overnight low of 1.2196). The rapid drop appears to be running ahead of itself but with no sign of stabilization just yet, GBP could weaken further to 1.2170 (1.2195 as a minor support). On the upside, only a move back above 1.2270 would indicate the current weakness has stabilized (minor resistance is at 1.2250)”.
Next 1-3 weeks: “The sudden lurch lower and the ease by which GBP cracked the 01 Oct low of 1.2205 came a surprise (overnight low of 1.2195). The price action indicates that the sideway-trading phase that started last Friday (04 Oct, spot at 1.2335) ended sooner than expected. From here, GBP is expected to trade with a downward bias towards 1.2140. At this stage, it is too early to expect a sustained decline below this level (momentum is not as strong as preferred). All in, GBP is expected to stay under pressure unless it can move above the ‘strong resistance’ level of 1.2300”.
Germany’s Finance Minister Olaf Scholz on Wednesday indicated that he was in favor of a woman succeeding German board member Sabine Lautenschlaeger at the European Central Bank.
“Pure men-only clubs are not a good idea,” he told private broadcaster n-tv.
The ECB in September announced that Lautenschlaeger, Germany’s nominee, the only woman on the European Central Bank’s executive board and an outspoken policy hawk, would resign with effect from the end of October.
Scholz declined to comment on possible candidates for the job but said that he expected that the question of Lautenschlaeger’s succession would be addressed “very quickly”.
Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, notes that USD/CHF recently faltered at 1.0026 and failed to register a close above the 1.0018 61.8% retracement.
“The market has sold off and attention has reverted to the .9868 55 day ma. Failure at the next lower .9799 current September low would push key support at .9716/.9659 to the fore. It is the location of the January, June, mid- and late August lows. Below here sits the .9659 August low and the September 2018 low at .9543. A close above 1.0026 is needed to generate some further upside interest and we suspect this will continue to act as a tough near term barrier. The market is neutral. Above the mid-June high at 1.0014/18 on a closing basis targets the 1.0128 mid November 2018 high.”
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is facing a fresh rebellion in his cabinet, with a group of ministers poised to resign due to concerns that he is leading the country towards a no-deal Brexit, The Times newspaper reported on Wednesday.
Culture Secretary Nicky Morgan, British Minister for Northern Ireland Julian Smith, Justice Secretary Robert Buckland, Health Minister Matt Hancock and Attorney General Geoffrey Cox are all on a “resignation watch list”, according to The Times report.
An unnamed cabinet minister cited by the newspaper said that a “very large number” of Conservative members of parliament will quit if it comes to a no-deal Brexit.
The Times said that ministers had warned Johnson in a cabinet meeting about the “grave” risk of the return of direct rule in Northern Ireland and raised concerns about Dominic Cummings, Johnson’s top adviser. “Cabinet will set the strategy, not unelected officials. If this is an attempt to do that then it will fail”, the report quoted another cabinet minister as saying.
Danske Bank analysts point out that the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell (voter, neutral) will speak again today at the 'Fed listens' event in Kansas but will likely not bring much new compared to his speech yesterday.
“Minutes from the latest FOMC meeting will be released tonight . This will give insights into the discussion about the need for further accommodation. However, the meeting took place before the recent weak US service PMI that points to some spill-over to US consumers and the service sector. Also look out for any new comments regarding the upcoming US-China trade talks starting tomorrow in Washington . We may also get more signals regarding possible Chinese retaliation against the US blacklisting of more Chinese companies. However, China may wait until the other side of the trade talks this week before hitting back.”
EUR/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.1101 (2798)
$1.1073 (2042)
$1.1052 (585)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.0961
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.0935 (3462)
$1.0906 (3173)
$1.0872 (3256)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date November, 8 is 62195 contracts (according to data from October, 8) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0800 (3627);
GBP/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.2554 (1101)
$1.2472 (759)
$1.2404 (294)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.2211
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.2142 (651)
$1.2119 (474)
$1.2060 (1122)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date November, 8 is 31943 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3300 (3785);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date November, 8 is 18528 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2000 (1719);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.58 versus 0.58 from the previous trading day according to data from October, 8
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
Pare | Closed | Change, % |
---|---|---|
AUDUSD | 0.67278 | -0.06 |
EURJPY | 117.288 | -0.29 |
EURUSD | 1.09551 | -0.14 |
GBPJPY | 130.809 | -0.73 |
GBPUSD | 1.22178 | -0.58 |
NZDUSD | 0.62947 | 0.1 |
USDCAD | 1.33225 | 0.11 |
USDCHF | 0.99282 | -0.18 |
USDJPY | 107.06 | -0.15 |
© 2000-2024. All rights reserved.
This site is managed by Teletrade D.J. LLC 2351 LLC 2022 (Euro House, Richmond Hill Road, Kingstown, VC0100, St. Vincent and the Grenadines).
The information on this website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice.
The company does not serve or provide services to customers who are residents of the US, Canada, Iran, The Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Yemen and FATF blacklisted countries.
Making transactions on financial markets with marginal financial instruments opens up wide possibilities and allows investors who are willing to take risks to earn high profits, carrying a potentially high risk of losses at the same time. Therefore you should responsibly approach the issue of choosing the appropriate investment strategy, taking the available resources into account, before starting trading.
Use of the information: full or partial use of materials from this website must always be referenced to TeleTrade as the source of information. Use of the materials on the Internet must be accompanied by a hyperlink to teletrade.org. Automatic import of materials and information from this website is prohibited.
Please contact our PR department if you have any questions or need assistance at pr@teletrade.global.