NZD/USD holds gains near 0.5750 following Retail Sales, China’s annual policy blueprint

NZD/USD strengthens as Retail Sales rose 0.9% QoQ in Q4 2024, marking the strongest growth in three years.
China’s annual policy statement highlights plans to advance rural reforms and drive comprehensive rural revitalization.
The US Dollar weakens amid disappointing US economic data released last week.

NZD/USD recovers recent losses registered in the previous session, trading around 0.5750 during the Asian hours on Monday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthened following the release of domestic Retail Sales data, which rose 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2024 — the strongest increase in three years — after a revised flat reading in the previous period and surpassing forecasts of 0.6%.

The Chinese government released its annual policy statement for 2025 on Sunday. The statement outlines plans to advance rural reforms and promote comprehensive rural revitalization. Growing optimism around China’s stimulus measures could further boost the NZD and the NZD/USD pair, given China’s importance as a major trading partner for New Zealand.

However, the upside of the NZD/USD pair could be restrained as US President Donald Trump signed a memorandum on Friday instructing the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (US) to limit Chinese investments in strategic sectors. Reuters cited a White House official saying that the national security memorandum seeks to encourage foreign investment while safeguarding US national security interests from potential threats posed by foreign adversaries like China.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies, depreciates below 106.50 at the time of writing. The DXY faced challenges following the downbeat S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) released last week.

The US Composite PMI fell to 50.4 in February, down from 52.7 in the previous month. In contrast, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.6 in February from 51.2 in January, surpassing the forecast of 51.5. Meanwhile, the Services PMI declined to 49.7 in February from 52.9 in January, falling short of the expected 53.0.

Economic Indicator

Retail Sales (QoQ)

The Retail Sales data, released by Statistics New Zealand on a quarterly basis, measures the volume of sales of goods by retailers in New Zealand. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales, with the QoQ reading comparing sales volumes in the reference quarter with the previous quarter. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Why it matters to traders?

The quarterly release of Retail Sales by the Statistics New Zealand directly reflects on the country’s consumer spending. Stronger sales could drive inflation higher, leading the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to hike interest rates so as to maintain its inflation-containment mandate. Thus, the indicator impacts the New Zealand dollar significantly. A better-than-expected print tends to be NZD bullish. The data is published about a month and a half after the quarter ends.