GBP/USD moves little around 1.2550 ahead of US Retail Sales data

GBP/USD advanced as US Dollar weakened amid lower US yields.
US Core PPI inflation rose to 3.6% YoY in January, exceeding the expected 3.3% but slightly below the revised 3.7%.
The UK GDP expanded by 1.4% year-on-year in Q4 2024, surpassing market expectations of 1.1%.

GBP/USD remains steady around 1.2560 during the Asian hours on Friday following gains in the previous session. The pair appreciated as US President Donald Trump delayed the implementation of reciprocal tariffs. Additionally, the US Dollar (USD) weakens amid falling US yields across the curve, despite ongoing concerns about a global trade war.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar’s value against six major currencies, extends its losses for the fourth successive session. The DXY trades around 107.00 with 2-year and 10-year yields on US Treasury bonds standing at 4.31% and 4.53%, respectively, at the time of writing.

Core PPI inflation in the United States (US) rose to 3.6% YoY in January, exceeding the expected 3.3% but slightly below the revised 3.7% (previously reported as 3.5%). This has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will delay rate cuts until the second half of the year. Additionally, persistently strong inflation could further support the outlook for the Fed to keep interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% for an extended period.

Investors now turn their attention to the upcoming US Retail Sales data, the final major economic release of the week. Markets anticipate a slight contraction of -0.1% in monthly Retail Sales, following the previous 0.4% increase.

In the United Kingdom (UK), the data showed on Thursday that the economy grew by 1.4% year-on-year in Q4 2024, accelerating from an upwardly revised 1.0% in the previous quarter and exceeding market expectations of 1.1%, according to preliminary estimates. This marks the fastest GDP growth since Q4 2022. For the full year 2024, the British economy expanded by 0.9%, up from 0.4% in 2023, driven by a 1.3% increase in the services sector, compared to 0.4% growth the previous year.

Pound Sterling FAQs

What is the Pound Sterling?

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling?

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

How does economic data influence the value of the Pound?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound?

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.