The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar against six major currencies, trades flat at around 108.00 at the time of writing on Thursday. All eyes shift to the European Central Bank (ECB), where a 25 basis point (bps) interest rate cut is expected. After the rather hawkish pause from the Federal Reserve (Fed), markets want to see if the ECB will comment on the US political scene with Donald Trump back in office.
That is something Fed Chairman Jerome Powell did not do. He refused to comment on any question referring to President Donald Trump. Several traders are even seeing the hawkish hold from the Fed as a message to Trump that the central bank will remain data dependent, not White House dependent. All this is combined with the fourth quarter preliminary US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) release later this Thursday.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is going nowhere while US yields are eking out more losses. The biggest concern for markets is the pressure from US President Trump over the Fed, with his demand to get rates and its borrowing cost lower. After last night’s Fed decision, things could heat up further as Trump could start to use more and more unconventional tools to influence the Fed, harming its credibility.
The psychological level of 108.00 is still to be recovered on a daily close, which proves to be a hard task. From there, 109.30 (July 14, 2022, high and rising trendline) is next to pare back last week’s losses. Further up, the next upside level to hit before advancing further remains at 110.79 (September 7, 2022, high).
On the downside, the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 107.64 and the October 3, 2023, high at 107.35 acts as a double support the DXY price. For now, that looks to be holding, though the Relative Strength Index (RSI) still has some room for the downside. Hence, rather look for 106.52 or even 105.89 as better levels for US Dollar bulls to engage and trigger a reversal.
US Dollar Index: Daily Chart
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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