NZD/USD extends losses to near 0.5650 following new tariff plans from Trump

NZD/USD receives downward pressure from risk-off mood amid fresh tariff threats from US President Donald Trump.
Trump plans to impose tariffs on US imports of computer chips, pharmaceuticals, steel, aluminum, and copper.
Traders expect the RBNZ to deliver a 50 basis point rate cut in February.

The NZD/USD pair continues its downward trend for the second day, trading around 0.5660 during early European hours on Tuesday. This decline is attributed to fresh tariff threats from US President Donald Trump.

On Monday evening, President Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on imports of computer chips, pharmaceuticals, steel, aluminum, and copper, aiming to shift production to the United States and boost domestic manufacturing. Additionally, Trump's advisers consider imposing 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada by February 1.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, hovers near 108.00. Market participants are likely to monitor key US economic releases later in the day, including Durable Goods Orders, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index.

The Kiwi Dollar struggles due to dovish expectations surrounding the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) policy stance. Swaps markets are now pricing in nearly a 90% chance of another 50 bps reduction on February 19, adding to the two cuts already delivered earlier in the cycle. The central bank is expected to deliver a total of 100 bps of rate cuts for the remainder of 2025.

In a parliamentary speech on Tuesday, New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon emphasized his government's focus on growth to lift incomes, strengthen local businesses, and create opportunities in 2025. He noted promising signs of success in 2024, such as low inflation, falling interest rates, rising wages, and increased business and consumer confidence.

New Zealand Dollar FAQs

What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar?

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.

How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar?

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.

How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar?

Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.

How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar?

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.