The Pound Sterling (GBP) continues underperforming its major peers, rattled by rising borrowing costs on the United Kingdom (UK) government’s debt. The 30-year UK gilt yields have risen to 5.36%, the highest level since 1998, causing discomfort for Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves.
Market participants started dumping UK gilt securities amid fears of higher debt, lower growth, and potentially inflationary United States (US) President-elect Donald Trump policies, which could lead to economic stagflation. Investors anticipated that higher gilt yields would force Rachel Reeves to make fresh borrowings to fund day-to-day expenditures. Earlier, Reeves vowed to fund daily spending with tax receipts and cut public spending.
The British Finance Ministry remained committed to not seeking fresh borrowings. UK Treasury Minister Darren Jones clarified at the House of Commons on Thursday that the government's decision to borrow only for investment was "non-negotiable." Jones added that it is normal for the price of gilts to "vary" and assured that financial markets continue to function in an "orderly way."
Darren Jones also confirmed that public spending will be “in line with what was set out in the Autumn Budget” and added that there is no need for any “emergency intervention” by the Chancellor.
On the sharp spike in UK gilt yields, BoE Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden said that the rise in government’s borrowing costs is partly linked to uncertainty over “incoming policies from United States (US) President-elect Donald Trump” in her speech at the University of Edinburgh. When asked about her view on the monetary policy outlook, Breeden said: "The recent evidence further supports the case to withdraw “policy restrictiveness.” She added that the withdrawal of policy restrictiveness will be “gradual” over time.
The Pound Sterling trades near a more-than-a-year-low around 1.2250 against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday. The GBP/USD pair faced a sharp sell-off after breaking below the January 2 low of 1.2350. The broader outlook for the Cable remains bearish as the 20-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) near 1.2490 and 1.2630, respectively, are declining.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) drops sharply to near 30.00, suggesting a strong bearish momentum.
Looking down, the pair is expected to find support near the November 10, 2023, low of 1.2185. On the upside, the 20-day EMA will act as key resistance.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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