Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some dip-buyers at the start of a new week and builds on Friday's bounce from the $2,614-2,613 area, though it remains confined in a familiar range held over the past two weeks or so. The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released on Friday reaffirmed expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower borrowing costs in December. This keeps the US Treasury bond yields depressed and acts as a tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal.
Apart from this, the cautious mood amid political disruption in South Korea, Geopolitical Tensions and trade war fears turn out to be other factors supporting the safe-haven Gold price. Meanwhile, rising bets that the US central bank would slow the pace or pause its rate-cutting cycle in January assist the US Dollar (USD) to build on Friday's modest bounce from a nearly one-month low. This, in turn, should keep a lid on any meaningful appreciating move for the XAU/USD.
From a technical perspective, any further strength above the $2,648-2,650 supply zone is likely to confront some resistance near the $2,666 region. Some follow-through buying beyond the $2,672 hurdle will be seen as a key trigger for bulls and allow the Gold price to aim to reclaim the $2,700 round figure. The momentum could extend further towards the next relevant hurdle near the $2,722 area.
On the flip side, weakness below the $2,630 immediate support could drag the Gold price back towards the $2,614-2,613 area. This is followed by the $2,605-2,600 support zone and the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), around the $2,586-2,585 region. A convincing break below the latter should pave the way for deeper losses and expose the November swing low, around the $2,537-2,536 area.
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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