Market news
08.11.2024, 10:42

USD: This isn't a Trump trade rethink – ING

A large portion of the election move in the US Dollar (USD) has been unwound. That looks more like a positioning adjustment rather than a rethink of what a Trump presidency means for global markets. Remember that markets got to Election Day broadly pricing in a Trump victory, and while the USD spiked in reaction to the Republican clean sweep, there are perhaps some questions now on how far the USD can rally near term given the focus is shifting back to the macroeconomic discussion, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

USD remains in a strong position

“The Fed cut rates by 25bp yesterday, in line with market expectations and consensus. The FX market was very marginally impacted and so was the rates market. If anything, we saw a very brief firming in the USD and a small rise in yields when Chair Jerome Powell seemed to suggest a more upbeat outlook for the US economy. Ultimately, markets were seeking any indication that Powell might tweak the narrative on the back of the US election, but there was understandably no indication of that.”

“The USD remains in a strong position from a rate perspective. The two-year USD swap rate is near the 4% handle, and we probably need to see some worsening in US data sentiment for markets to take that back lower.”

“We are in an adjustment phase after the US election moves, and with volatility falling there are some potential pockets of opportunity for pro-cyclical currencies that offer attractive yields to do well in the near term. In that sense, the AUD appears well positioned as markets incidentally don’t see the impact of US protectionism as a near-term threat and Beijing stimulus can help some China proxies.”

© 2000-2024. All rights reserved.

This site is managed by Teletrade D.J. LLC 2351 LLC 2022 (Euro House, Richmond Hill Road, Kingstown, VC0100, St. Vincent and the Grenadines).

The information on this website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice.

The company does not serve or provide services to customers who are residents of the US, Canada, Iran, The Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Yemen and FATF blacklisted countries.

AML Website Summary

Risk Disclosure

Making transactions on financial markets with marginal financial instruments opens up wide possibilities and allows investors who are willing to take risks to earn high profits, carrying a potentially high risk of losses at the same time. Therefore you should responsibly approach the issue of choosing the appropriate investment strategy, taking the available resources into account, before starting trading.

Privacy Policy

Use of the information: full or partial use of materials from this website must always be referenced to TeleTrade as the source of information. Use of the materials on the Internet must be accompanied by a hyperlink to teletrade.org. Automatic import of materials and information from this website is prohibited.

Please contact our PR department if you have any questions or need assistance at pr@teletrade.global.

Bank
transfers
Feedback
Live Chat E-mail
Up
Choose your language / location