The US Dollar (USD) has been pretty strong over the past four weeks, even if it has slowed down a bit in the last few days, Commerzbank’s FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes.
“Since summer, it seems that the US dollar has been following the odds on whether Donald Trump will win the election. According to Realclearpolitics.com, which tracks several betting agencies for this purpose, this probability was recently seen at around 66%. At the beginning of October, we were still below 50%. As a result, the trade-weighted US dollar also saw a significant gain.”
“The issue here is, the polls and the models don't see the probabilities as clearly as the betting shops do. Let's look at the two most well-known models for the US presidential election: the one from fivethirtyeight.com and the one from The Economist. The first of them also showed a shift towards Donald Trump in the last few weeks. But the odds are still only 52% to 48% in Trump's favour, which is a lot lower than the 66% you see in the betting shops. The Economist's model says it's a tie between the two candidates.”
Harris even managed to make up some lost ground in that model over the last few days. The models are based on fundamental data and a lot of surveys, and they still suggest it's too close to call. But the betting offices think Trump is more likely to win. It seems that the US dollar is more influenced by the betting offices. This could end up being a bit of a letdown.
© 2000-2024. All rights reserved.
This site is managed by Teletrade D.J. LLC 2351 LLC 2022 (Euro House, Richmond Hill Road, Kingstown, VC0100, St. Vincent and the Grenadines).
The information on this website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice.
The company does not serve or provide services to customers who are residents of the US, Canada, Iran, The Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Yemen and FATF blacklisted countries.
Making transactions on financial markets with marginal financial instruments opens up wide possibilities and allows investors who are willing to take risks to earn high profits, carrying a potentially high risk of losses at the same time. Therefore you should responsibly approach the issue of choosing the appropriate investment strategy, taking the available resources into account, before starting trading.
Use of the information: full or partial use of materials from this website must always be referenced to TeleTrade as the source of information. Use of the materials on the Internet must be accompanied by a hyperlink to teletrade.org. Automatic import of materials and information from this website is prohibited.
Please contact our PR department if you have any questions or need assistance at pr@teletrade.global.