The US Dollar (USD) inched higher overnight after FOMC minutes unveiled details of pushback at the September FOMC. DXY was last at 102.99, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
“On Fedspeaks, Daly said she expects 1 or 2 more cut this year while Collins said that 50bp cut in Sep was prudent given risks. Elsewhere, Logan said she supported a slower path of interest rate reduction. Dovish expectation on Fed cut have now been priced out. Markets are just eyeing about 45bp cut for the rest of the year, as opposed to 75bps cut seen just 2-3 weeks ago. Markets and Fed’s dot plot are now in alignment.”
“USD has also rebounded, partially retracing the earlier ~5% decline seen in 3Q. To some extent, USD may have settled into this temporal state of equilibrium where the risks from here can largely be 2-way. Daily momentum remains bullish but rise in RSI shows signs of moderation near overbought conditions. 2-way trades likely. Resistance here at 103.30 (100 DMA). Support at 101.75/90 levels (50 DMA, 23.6% fibo retracement of 2023 high to 2024 low), 101.30 (21 DMA).”
“Apart from US CPI, initial jobless claims (Thursday) and PPI (Friday), there is no clear major US data catalyst until the next payrolls or core PCE data in a few weeks’ time. In terms of event risks, geopolitical tensions in middle east and US elections deserve monitoring. Even at this point, Harris and Trump are polling neck-and-neck. Markets adopting a cautious stance ahead of US elections may imply that USD may still stay supported on dips.”
© 2000-2024. All rights reserved.
This site is managed by Teletrade D.J. LLC 2351 LLC 2022 (Euro House, Richmond Hill Road, Kingstown, VC0100, St. Vincent and the Grenadines).
The information on this website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice.
The company does not serve or provide services to customers who are residents of the US, Canada, Iran, The Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Yemen and FATF blacklisted countries.
Making transactions on financial markets with marginal financial instruments opens up wide possibilities and allows investors who are willing to take risks to earn high profits, carrying a potentially high risk of losses at the same time. Therefore you should responsibly approach the issue of choosing the appropriate investment strategy, taking the available resources into account, before starting trading.
Use of the information: full or partial use of materials from this website must always be referenced to TeleTrade as the source of information. Use of the materials on the Internet must be accompanied by a hyperlink to teletrade.org. Automatic import of materials and information from this website is prohibited.
Please contact our PR department if you have any questions or need assistance at pr@teletrade.global.