Lukas Enzersdorfer-Konrad, Bitpanda deputy CEO: “Crypto needs Gary Gensler gone”

If we look at 2024 and the outlook for 2025, it has been quite macroeconomically driven. We saw for the first time [interest] rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and by the European Central Bank in Europe, which are potentially to be continued over the next year. This means that money is getting less expensive, which is a good starting point for a high-risk asset class such as crypto. 

Also, with the US elections coming up, no matter who wins we will get more clarity on how crypto in the US is going to be dealt with. This year we still saw a lot of confusion in the US market. So these are two events that will potentially have a positive impact on crypto sentiment.

A different aspect is that we have seen a lot of development in Layer 1 and Layer 2 chains.  Ecosystems are growing on Ethereum and Solana (SOL), so the next wave will be a very interesting one, with real applications and real use-case applications for on-chain activity that will drive Web3 as part of the next cycle. 

It does not matter if it is Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, there will be more clarity for a five-year planning cycle, which will support the institutional adoption of crypto. There can be speculation about how Trump is more pro-crypto than Harris, but this is something we will not know until one of them is elected. 

It is very interesting to follow. There are so many different interests in the US playing into the many SEC trials that go beyond what is beneficial for crypto. It is interesting to see the personal opinions of the people involved. 

Clarity will only come after the US presidential election and with the end of all these trials. So, it’s the right thing that these legal battles are happening instead of being postponed forever.

I would say yes.

For crypto as an asset class, two things are needed: first, building Web3 interactions and on-chain applications that people start to use. We are still right at the beginning of this process.

The other one is real-world interaction with regulated stablecoins to have remittance, payment services and facilitators. Bitcoin is not a vehicle for payments, it is a vehicle for storing value. Like with Gold, it won’t be used to pay, but stablecoins will, and they are now seeing momentum in Europe with MiCA, which is a regulatory catalyst. That’s a very interesting play for next year.

Crypto markets are very immature and untransparent. Still, if you think about crypto ten or five years ago, it was a much more untransparent market than it is now. From a nature perspective, Forex markets are very similar to crypto. It is just that FX already is optimized and there is much more history. 

There will always be some non transparency on why prices are moving. For example, we saw how Germany sold Bitcoin reserves out of a trial, and it was understandable. Years ago, this would have not happened because some random wallets that nobody knew about just dumped crypto into the market. 

On the other side, it also gives people opportunities when it comes to trading strategies, because you can still make more money from crypto compared to FX. 

We do not try to tell people what to invest in. We are about ensuring the access and the storage of value, making trading, custody and staking available in the best way for our customers.

What to buy and when to buy? This is for a customer to decide on their own. 

If you are investing in crypto, you are investing indirectly in the adoption of blockchain technology. So it is not just understanding the technology and how it works, but also the user cases and which L1s and L2s are in play so you can judge whether it will get traction. Then, invest in tokens around these ecosystems.

For trading, it is much more useful to apply technical analysis from the old world, but that depends on your investment horizon.

I would say yes, absolutely. ETFs are the next step of giving a new type of investor access to the asset class, but market sentiment needs to also support that. 

You can have best access for institutional investors, but they will not move larger amounts of capital if growth expectations are not there. The fortune of the ETFs will be driven by macroeconomic trends – the price of money, interest rates – and also on clarity – meaning the US election and the regulatory frameworks. We will see further ETFs inflows in the coming years when the market is better.

Until now, geopolitical factors were mostly affecting existing stock markets, but nowadays are also affecting crypto. Further investments also need a positive macroeconomic outlook, and the current one is not that positive.

In general, yes, it will come. The question is when? 

I don’t know.

With more participants of the traditional markets now moving into crypto, the correlation will increase. Not in price, but in activity. Trading activity Monday to Friday in crypto is already much higher compared to five or seven years ago. We have fewer spikes during the weekend because retail trading activity is declining.

I believe that Bitcoin price will be higher in one year. Where will it stand? We will see.