GBP/USD continues to grind higher, but time is running out

• GBP/USD clipped into another 30-month high on Monday.
• The Pound Sterling may be running out of runway despite Greenback weakness.
• UK could be headed for a rapid shift in economic conditions as UK PM mulls fiscal changes.

GBP/USD found its way into yet another 30-month high on to kick off the fresh trading week, pulling deeper into bull country on the back of broad-market Greenback selling pressure. The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) last-minute plunge into a double rate cut last week has sparked a weak stance in USD flows, helping to muscle GBP into the top end.

Markets will get a breather on Tuesday, with little data of note on the UK side. On the US economic calendar, it’s strictly a mid-tier showing, though investors will be keeping an eye out for comments from Fed Governor Michelle Bowman due during the US market session.

Political threats loom just over the horizon for the Pound Sterling; UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has mused out loud that the UK’s domestic economy could be on a collision course with “painful” economic reforms that are needed, especially with UK inflation figures proving to be far stickier than in other countries.

September’s S&P US Manufacturing PMI declined to 47.0 MoM, falling to its lowest level since July of 2023 as the US manufacturing sector sees a continued gloomy outlook on business activity. On the other hand, the S&P US Services PMI eased to 55.4 in September, down from August’s 55.7 but beating the expected print of 55.2.

Fed policymaker and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee hit markets with cooling comments early Monday, noting that much further movement on rates from the Fed could be necessary. The Fed official highlighted that the Fed may need to shoot much lower on policy rates in order to keep business lending conditions sufficiently liquid enough to keep the US business landscape keel-side down as record tightness in the US labor market drains away.

GBP/USD price forecast

Despite clipping into yet another consecutive fresh 30-month high on Monday, Cable bidders have struggled to push price action deeper into bull country, and markets will enter the midweek market sessions with prices hovering without a notable lack of technical support. A firm bullish trend is still baked into daily candlesticks with the pair climbing above the 50–day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.3000.

GBP/USD daily chart