NZD/USD holds positive ground near 0.6250, US PMI data looms

• NZD/USD trades firmer around 0.6250 in Monday’s Asian session. 
• Traders expect the Fed to reduce interest rates further in the remainder of the year.
• Deepening growth concerns in New Zealand’s economy might weigh on the Kiwi. 

The NZD/USD pair trades on a stronger note near 0.6245 during the early Asian session on Monday. The pair edges higher as investors digest monetary policy decisions from the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) sharp rate cut last week.

The Fed decided to cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points (bps), marking the first reduction in four years. The half-point move signals that the Fed is acting aggressively to keep the US economy from stalling. Economists believe the rate cut last week will mark the first in a series of reductions this year and into 2025. The markets expect the Fed to cut its benchmark rate again at its November and December meetings, according to FactSet. This, in turn, might continue to undermine the US Dollar (USD) and act as a tailwind for NZD/USD. 

Investors will take more cues from the preliminary US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for September, which is due on Monday. The Manufacturing PMI is expected at 48.6 in September versus 47.9 in August, while the Services PMI is estimated at 55.3 in September from 55.7 in the previous reading. Also, the speeches by the Fed’s Austan Goolsbee and Raphael Bostic will be closely watched. 

On the other hand, the latest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures show the New Zealand economy has contracted again, falling 0.2% in the second quarter (Q2). “Ongoing headwinds, including our expectation for further weakening in the labor market, suggest we are unlikely to see a rapid turnaround in the economy,” said Kim Mundy, economist at ASB Bank in Auckland. The fragile New Zealand economic outlook is likely to cap the upside for the Kiwi in the near term.