USD/CAD drifts lower amid sustained USD selling, sliding Oil prices could lend support

• USD/CAD kicks off the new week on a weaker note amid a bearish US Dollar.
• Bets for a 50 bps Fed rate cut and a positive risk tone weighs on the Greenback.
• Sliding Oil prices could undermine the Loonie and help limit any further losses.

The USD/CAD pair struggles to capitalize on its modest gains registered over the past two days and attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Monday. Spot prices, however, manage to hold above the 1.3565 support zone, warranting some caution before positioning for any meaningful pullback from a three-week high touched last Wednesday.

The US Dollar (USD) languishes near the YTD low amid rising bets for a more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed), bolstered by signs of easing inflationary pressures in the US. Apart from this, a generally positive tone around the equity markets is seen denting demand for the safe-haven Greenback and exerting some downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair. The downside, however, seems cushioned in the wake of weaker Crude Oil prices, which tends to undermine the commodity-linked Loonie.

The worse-than-expected Chinese macro data released over the weekend adds to concerns about a slowing fuel demand in the world's second-largest economy and the world's top oil importer. This, in turn, fails to assist Crude Oil prices to capitalize on last week's recovery from the lowest level since May 2023. Furthermore, hopes for additional interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada (BoC) might keep a lid on any meaningful appreciating move for the Canadian Dollar (CAD) and lend support to the USD/CAD pair. 

Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive bets and prefer to move to the sidelines ahead of this week's key central bank event risk – the outcome of the highly-anticipated FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The US central bank is widely anticipated to lower its borrowing costs, though investors remain divided over the size of the rate cut. Hence, the crucial decision, along with the Fed's policy outlook, will play a key role in influencing the USD price dynamics and determining the next leg of a directional move for the USD/CAD pair.